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Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Comin

    (New York University)

  • Sunil Mulani

    (New York University)

Abstract

In this paper we document the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. The upward trend in micro volatility is not driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We also show that many other firm level variables display a similar upward trend in volatility. Finally, we argue that this new fact renders obsolete the proposed explanations for the decline in aggregate volatility and that, given the symmetry of the patterns at the micro and macro level, a common explanation is highly likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2003. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts," Macroeconomics 0306008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0306008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. claudio Michelacci & Fabiano Schivardi, 2008. "Does Idiosyncratic Business Risk Matter?," EIEF Working Papers Series 0813, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2008.
    2. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. García-Vega, María & Guariglia, Alessandra & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2012. "Volatility, financial constraints, and trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-76.
    4. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrea Repetto, 2006. "Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 169-192.
    5. Comin, Diego & Groshen, Erica L. & Rabin, Bess, 2009. "Turbulent firms, turbulent wages?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 109-133, January.
    6. Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 484, Econometric Society.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    8. Juan M. Sánchez & Emircan Yurdagul, 2013. "Why are U.S. firms holding so much cash? an exploration of cross-sectional variation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(July), pages 293-325.
    9. Thesmar, David, 2009. "Contrasting Trends in Firm Volatility: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7135, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    11. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.),The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:113krusell is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Euwals, Rob & ,, 2006. "Explaining the Growth of Part-Time Employment: Factors of Supply and Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 5595, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    15. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    17. Rob Euwals & Maurice Hogerbrugge, 2006. "Explaining the Growth of Part‐time Employment: Factors of Supply and Demand," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(3), pages 533-557, September.
    18. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    19. repec:mpc:wpaper:16 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Davis, Steven J. & Faberman, Jason & Haltiwanger, John C., 2005. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources, Micro-Macro Links and the Recent Downturn," IZA Discussion Papers 1639, IZA Network @ LISER.
    21. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. San Vicente Portes Luis & Ozenbas Deniz, 2009. "On Balance Sheets, Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations," Working Papers 2003-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    24. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, June.

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