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Citations for "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?"

by Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros

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  1. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
  2. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2012. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Dynare Working Papers 18, CEPREMAP.
  3. Smith Aaron, 2012. "Markov Breaks in Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, May.
  4. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Ana Beatriz Galvao & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/22, European University Institute.
  6. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, "undated". "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  7. Ossama Mikhail, 2006. "Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration using an economy-specific characteristic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-12.
  8. Reicher Christopher Phillip & Utlaut Johannes Friederich, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and real commodity prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 35-35, October.
  9. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
  10. Mertens, Karel, 2008. "Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1290-1302, October.
  11. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall & Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006. "A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 131, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Kero, Afroditi, 2013. "Banks’ risk taking, financial innovation and macroeconomic risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 112-124.
  13. Duncan, Roberto, 2015. "Does the US current account show a symmetric behavior over the business cycle?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 253, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 12308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  16. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Yi Wen, 2011. "OPEC´s Oil Exporting Strategy and Macroeconomic (In)Stability," NIPE Working Papers 10/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  17. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen, 2015. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Papers 0035, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  18. Marcelo Ferman, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp678, Financial Markets Group.
  19. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 235-322.
  20. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," Bank of England working papers 587, Bank of England.
  21. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
  22. Bijapur, Mohan, 2014. "What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations: Aggregate or Idiosyncratic Uncertainty Shocks?," MPRA Paper 60361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R.Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2016. "China's Increasing Global Influence: Changes in International Growth Spillovers," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 221, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  24. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 39-39, October.
  25. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2003. "Alternative characterization of the volatility in the growth rate of real GDP," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 223-231, April.
  26. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 34-47, October.
  27. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
  28. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2010. "Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 139-168, February.
  29. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, 09.
  30. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2012. "Changes in the second-moment properties of disaggregated capital flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 122-127.
  31. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2002. "Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-253, October.
  33. Olaf Posch, 2008. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," CREATES Research Papers 2008-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  34. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2009. "Testing for Common Autocorrelation in Data Rich Environments," CEIS Research Paper 153, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Dec 2009.
  35. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Open Access publications 10197/7329, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  36. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2010. "Inventories, inflation dynamics, and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper 10-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  37. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  38. Cho, Sungjun, 2013. "New return anomalies and new-Keynesian ICAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-106.
  39. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 259-287, April.
  40. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  42. Julien Champagne & André Kurmann, 2010. "The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States," Cahiers de recherche 1010, CIRPEE.
  43. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  44. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
  45. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  46. Bruce T. Grimm, 2007. "The Statistical Discrepancy," BEA Papers 0071, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  47. Eggers, Andrew & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2006. "The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 585-595, September.
  48. André Sapir & Xavier Debrun, 2010. "Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/174323, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  49. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics.
  50. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "Inference on Co-integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 13-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  51. Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 456-468.
  52. Angang Hu & Jie Lu & Zhengyan Xiao, 2011. "Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 157-181, May.
  53. Derek Stimel, 2010. "Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 543-557.
  54. Jorge Andraz & Nélia Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_17, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  55. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2013. "Financial development and long-run volatility trends," Working Papers 2013-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 21 Sep 2016.
  56. John Tsoukalas & Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas, "undated". "Money and Information in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  57. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  58. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
  59. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 4675, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
  61. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
  62. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0924, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  63. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2010. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary periodic time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2641-2654, November.
  64. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2010. "The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?," Economics Working Papers 1241, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  65. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
  66. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
  67. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012. "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 38885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit," Working Papers 1240, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  69. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M. & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2015. "The effect of growth volatility on income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 212-222.
  70. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2013. "Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 13/43, International Monetary Fund.
  71. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
  72. Toshiaki Watanabe & Hirokuni Uchiyama, 2005. "Structural Change in Japanese Business Fluctuations and Nikkei 225 Stock Index Futures Transactions," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 19-32, March.
  73. Benati, Luca, 2006. "Drift and Breaks in Labour Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Aarti Singh & James Bullard, 2007. "Learning and the Great Moderation," 2007 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  75. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  76. repec:pri:wwseco:dp232 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 1-18.
  78. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
  79. Davide Fiaschi & Angela Parenti, 2015. "How Reliable Are the Geographical Spatial Weights Matrices?," Discussion Papers 2015/198, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  80. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
  81. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
  83. Julien Champagne, 2015. "The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model," Staff Working Papers 15-35, Bank of Canada.
  84. D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 0605, European Central Bank.
  85. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  86. Hayat, Aziz & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2013. "Masking of volatility by seasonal adjustment methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 676-688.
  87. Koch, Christoffer, 2015. "Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 316-326.
  88. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  89. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," Discussion Papers 07-010, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  90. Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2013. "Reaction to technology shocks in Markov-switching structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 51-62.
  91. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "News, noise, and estimates of the "true" unobserved state of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  92. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working Papers 1205, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  93. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
  94. Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-42.
  95. Chikan, Attila & Kovacs, Erzsebet & Tatrai, Tunde, 2005. "Macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment: a multi-country study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 61-73, January.
  96. Duca, John V., 2004. "Why have U.S. households increasingly relied on mutual funds to own equity?," Working Papers 0403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  97. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  98. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 521-534, 03.
  99. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
  100. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  101. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2012. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  102. Benhmad, François, 2013. "Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-151.
  103. Dirk-Jan van de Ven & Roger Fouquet, 2014. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," GRI Working Papers 153, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  104. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  105. Biscarri, Javier Gómez & Moreno, Antonio & Gracia, Fernando Pérez de, 2010. "Money demand accommodation: Impact on macro-dynamics and policy consequences," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-154, January.
  106. Bijapur, Mohan, 2010. "Does monetary policy lose effectiveness during a credit crunch?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 42-44, January.
  107. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  108. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  109. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations; Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 05/228, International Monetary Fund.
  110. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2007. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," Working Papers 212007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  111. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2008. "Horizons of Understanding: A Review of Ray Fair's Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 685-703, September.
  112. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  113. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
  114. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2011. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Working Papers 1116, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  115. Vadym Volosovych & Bent E. Sørensen & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2010. "Deep Financial Integration and Volatility," 2010 Meeting Papers 232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  116. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  117. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  118. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306, December.
  119. Gill Segal & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications," 2014 Meeting Papers 488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  120. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
  121. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural Volatility, Welfare and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1748, CESifo Group Munich.
  122. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation: Evidence From a Markov-Switching cay," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  123. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Can the identification puzzle of Taiwan's turning points after 1990 be solved?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 174-195, January.
  124. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2013. "Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2796-2813.
  125. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Fractional integration and structural breaks in U.S. macro dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 427-446, August.
  126. Alcala, Francisco & Sancho, Israel, 2004. "Output composition and the US output volatility decline," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 115-120, January.
  127. Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008. "House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 0891, European Central Bank.
  128. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  129. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
  130. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  131. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  132. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 7597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  133. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
  134. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2007. "Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data," ISAE Working Papers 83, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  135. Batyra, Anna, 2013. "Are Turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower Aggregate Volatility?," GIAM Working Papers 13-2, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.
  136. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo Group Munich.
  137. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Changing Macroeconomic Response to Stock Market Volatility Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3652, CESifo Group Munich.
  138. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print hal-00732535, HAL.
  139. Tatom, John, 2011. "Inflation and asset prices," MPRA Paper 34606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  140. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  141. Sensier, Marianne & Dick van Dijk, 2002. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 164, Royal Economic Society.
  142. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The great moderation in historical perspective. Is it that great?," Working Papers 1527, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  143. Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Vicente Tuesta Reátegui, 2010. "Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles," Working Papers 10-11, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  144. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
  145. repec:zbw:rwirep:0216 is not listed on IDEAS
  146. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
  147. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates," Working Papers w201030, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  148. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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  439. Chaipat Poonpatpibul & Vasuveerapat Ramdecha & Krittinan Wiengwangchai & Pawinee Jitmongkolsa-mer, 2008. "Border of Monetary Policy in the New Financial State," Working Papers 2008-01, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
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  441. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  442. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  443. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, 05.
  444. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "How Sweden's Unemployment Became More Like Europe's," NBER Chapters, in: Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, pages 189-223 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  445. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2011. "Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy," Discussion Papers 2011/117, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  446. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
  447. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  448. Burriel, Pablo & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2009. "MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  449. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  450. Bivin, David G., 2006. "Industry evidence of enhanced production stability since 1984," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 438-448, September.
  451. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  452. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  453. Lubik, Thomas A. & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed," Working Paper 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  454. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
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  456. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  457. Chang-Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2013. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Paper Series 1305, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  458. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
  459. Jesús Rodríguez López, 2010. "Growth, fluctuations and technology in the U.S. post-war economy," Working Papers 10.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  460. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  461. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  462. Chang, Youngho & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "Electricity market structure, electricity price, and its volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 192-197, May.
  463. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
  464. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Industrial production, volatility, and the supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 553-558, October.
  465. Philippe Moutot & Giovanni Vitale, 2009. "Monetary policy strategy in a global environment," Occasional Paper Series 106, European Central Bank.
  466. James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2010. "A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  467. Blake, Andrew P & Markovic, Bojan, 2008. "The conduct of global monetary policy and domestic stability," Bank of England working papers 353, Bank of England.
  468. Jouni Sohkanen & B. Nielsen, 2009. "Asymptotic behaviour of the CUSUM of squares test under stochastic and deterministic time trends," Economics Papers 2009-W09, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  469. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.
  470. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production management, output volatility, and good luck," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2118-2136, July.
  471. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
  472. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.
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  474. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  475. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
  476. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
  477. Stelios Bekiros, 2014. "Timescale Analysis with an Entropy-Based Shift-Invariant Discrete Wavelet Transform," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 231-251, August.
  478. Abi Morshed, Alaa & Andreou, E. & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Discussion Paper 2016-019, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  479. Gemma Carolillo & Piero Mastroberardino & Claudio Nigro, 2013. "The 2007 financial crisis: strategic actors and processes of construction of a concrete system," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 17(2), pages 453-489, May.
  480. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  481. San Vicente Portes Luis & Ozenbas Deniz, 2009. "On Balance Sheets, Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
  482. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2011. "Great Moderation or Great Mistake: Can rising confidence in low macro-risk explain the boom in asset prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  483. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2012. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 654-668.
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  485. Ghalwash, Tarek, 2007. "Energy taxes as a signaling device: An empirical analysis of consumer preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 29-38, January.
  486. Cook, Steven, 2006. "Testing for cointegration in the presence of mis-specified structural change," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(13), pages 1380-1384, July.
  487. Thomas Mayer, 2006. "The Empirical Significance of Econometric Models," Working Papers 620, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  488. Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  489. Pacheco, Luis, 2010. "ECB Projections: should leave it to the pros?," Working Papers 11/2010, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
  490. Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 208-212, August.
  491. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  492. Hamid Baghestani, 2014. "On the loss structure of federal reserve forecasts of output growth," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 518-527, July.
  493. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
  494. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  495. Luojia Hu & Maude Toussaint-Comeau, 2010. "Do labor market activities help predict inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 52-63.
  496. Irvine, F. Owen, 2007. "Sales persistence and the reduction in GDP volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 22-30, July.
  497. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns," NBER Working Papers 21444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  498. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
  499. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2009. "Measuring Changes in Firm-Level Volatility: An Application to Japan," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/20, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  500. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production stability in a supply-chain environment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 265-275, July.
  501. Choi, Chi-Young & O'Sullivan, Róisín, 2013. "Heterogeneous response of disaggregate inflation to monetary policy regime change: The role of price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1814-1832.
  502. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
  503. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  504. S. Avouyi-Dovi & G. Horny & P. Sevestre, 2015. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Working papers 547, Banque de France.
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