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Laurent Ferrara

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Ortega, J-P., 2013. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Working papers 454, Banque de France.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting Global GDP Growth”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-03-12 09:56:18
  2. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 73-107.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting Global GDP Growth”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-03-12 09:56:18
  3. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach," Working papers 515, Banque de France.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting Global GDP Growth”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-03-12 09:56:18
  4. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2015. "What Are The Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Guest Contribution: “Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-06-30 12:30:51
  5. Author Profile
    1. Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting Global GDP Growth”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-03-12 09:56:18
    2. Guest Contribution: “Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2015-06-30 12:30:51
    3. Guest Contribution: “Where is global economic growth heading?”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2016-05-03 20:54:19

Working papers

  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara, 2024. "The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries," NBER Working Papers 32084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan & Vašaničová, Petra, 2024. "Macroeconomic environment and the future performance of loans: Evidence from three peer-to-peer platforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    2. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2025. "Predictive Power of Key Financial Variables During the Unconventional Monetary Policy Era," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 856-866, April.

  2. Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2022. "Commodity Price Uncertainty Comovement: Does It Matter for Global Economic Growth?," CAMA Working Papers 2022-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Sanusi, Olajide I. & Safi, Samir K. & Adeeko, Omotara & Tabash, Mosab I., 2022. "Forecasting agricultural commodity price using different models: a case study of widely consumed grains in Nigeria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(2), June.
    2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    3. Ebrahim Abbas Abdullah Abbas Amer & Zhang Xiuwu & Ebrahim Mohammed Ali Meyad & Ali M Meyad & A K M Mohsin & Arifur Rahman, 2024. "The long-term relationship between oil price changes and economic growth from the perspective of the resource curse: An empirical study from Yemen," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(11), pages 1-23, November.
    4. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Theodora Bermpei & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Jebreel Alshalahi, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Post-Print hal-04129400, HAL.
    6. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Ma, Yong & Zhou, Mingtao & Li, Shuaibing, 2024. "Weathering market swings: Does climate risk matter for agricultural commodity price predictability?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).

  3. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," Post-Print hal-04459560, HAL.
    • Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2019. "Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Ramirez-Rondan, N.R. & Terrones, Marco E., 2019. "Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition: How Are They Related?," MPRA Paper 97524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2021. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 28447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Charles Engel & Dohyeon Lee & Chang Liu & Chenxin Liu & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2017. "The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 24059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lloyd, Simon & Marin, Emile, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and business cycles," Bank of England working papers 872, Bank of England.
    6. Wang, Wenhao & Lin, Zhitao & Hu, Bing, 2023. "Macro news effects on exchange rates: Difference between carry trade target and safe-haven currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2020. "Measuring Exchange Rate Risks During Periods of Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2020-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Jakub Janus, 2024. "Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 421-456, July.
    9. Corsetti, G. & Marin, E. A., 2020. "A Century of Arbitrage and Disaster Risk Pricing in the Foreign Exchange Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2020, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Liliana Varela, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Disconnect: The Role of Capital Flows, Currency Risk and Default Risk," 2019 Meeting Papers 351, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2018. "Foreign exchange order fl ow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2018_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

  4. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
    2. Kurt, Ozan Ekin, 2022. "Effects of interest rates on functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and profit rates in France: A post-Kaleckian econometric analysis," EconStor Preprints 251003, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  5. Candelon, Bertrand & Ferrara, Laurent & Joëts, Marc, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    4. Atasoy, Burak Sencer & Özkan, İbrahim, 2024. "Correlation meets causality: A holistic measure of financial contagion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    6. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    7. Cipollini, Andrea & Mikaliunaite, Ieva, 2020. "Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 546-558.
    8. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2022. "Interdependence and portfolio optimisation of bank equity returns from developed and emerging Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 678-696, January.
    9. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Yuriy Kitsul & Jamil Rahman & Beth Anne Wilson, 2024. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty and U.S. equity returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1401, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America," Post-Print hal-02966894, HAL.
    11. Hu, Yitong & Shen, Dehua & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Attention allocation and cryptocurrency return co-movement: Evidence from the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1173-1185.
    12. Daisuke Ikeda & Mayumi Ojima & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Financial Interconnectedness, Amplification, and Cross-Border Activity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    13. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2022. "Higher Moments Actually Matter: Spillover Approach for Case of CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-34, December.
    14. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Anthony-Orji, Onyinye I. & Manasseh, Charles O. & Orji, Anthony, 2020. "Measuring the dynamics of COMESA output connectedness with the global economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    15. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Chiara Pederzoli, 2020. "Networks and market-based measures of systemic risk: the European banking system in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 159-181, January.
    16. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.

  6. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2021-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Hory, Marie-Pierre & Levieuge, Grégory & Onori, Daria, 2023. "The fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Post-Print hal-04522948, HAL.
    4. Benjamin Born & Francesco D’Ascanio & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2024. "Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1642-1683.
    5. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.
    6. Victor Pontines & Davaajargal Luvsannyam, 2023. "External Commodity Shocks and the Insulating Role of Fiscal Policy on Real Output: Evidence from a Commodity-Exporting Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2023-57, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Chaturvedi, Priya & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2022. "Econometric modelling of exchange rate volatility using mixed-frequency data," MPRA Paper 115222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar Valencia, 2024. "Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises," IREA Working Papers 202416, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2024.
    10. Hyungsuk Lee & Junsang Lee, 2024. "Accounting for the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates through Markup Dynamics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(2), pages 129-145, April.
    11. Albina Latifi & Viktoriia Naboka-Krell & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2023. "Fiscal Policy in the Bundestag: Textual Analysis and Macroeconomic Effects," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202307, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Olumide O. Olaoye & O. J. Omokanmi & Mosab I. Tabash & S. O. Olofinlade & M. O. Ojelade, 2024. "Soaring inflation in sub-Saharan Africa: A fiscal root?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 987-1009, February.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates since 1950," Working Papers 320, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Asif Tariq & Aadil Amin & Masroor Ahmad, 2024. "Deciphering the non-linear nexus between government size and inflation in MENA countries: an application of dynamic-panel threshold model," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates Since 1950," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 415-453, September.
    16. Prasada, Imade Yoga & Nugroho, Agus Dwi & Lakner, Zoltan, 2022. "Impact of the FLEGT license on Indonesian plywood competitiveness in the European Union," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Julie Ann Q. Basconcillo, 2023. "A nexus between fiscal policy and inflation: a case study of Indonesia using SVAR model," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 477-503.
    18. Kolasa, Marcin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper, 2025. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies," Working Paper Series 450, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri, 2024. "Investigating causality between natural resource rents, openness, and economic growth: A quantile approach," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 468-484, May.
    21. Chang Liu & Yinxi Xie, 2023. "Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures," Staff Working Papers 23-30, Bank of Canada.

  7. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2020. "Measuring Exchange Rate Risks During Periods of Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2020-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Gole, Purva & Perego, Erica & Turcu, Camelia, 2024. "UIP deviations in times of uncertainty: Not all countries behave alike," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Cristiano Salvagnin & Aldo Glielmo & Maria Elena De Giuli & Antonietta Mira, 2024. "Investigating the price determinants of the European Emission Trading System: a non-parametric approach," Papers 2406.05094, arXiv.org.
    3. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

  8. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Born & Francesco D’Ascanio & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2024. "Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1642-1683.
    2. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

  9. Laurent Ferrara & Matteo Mogliani & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "High-Frequency Monitoring of Growth-at-Risk," CAMA Working Papers 2020-97, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Szendrei, Tibor & Varga, Katalin, 2023. "Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2024. "Density forecast transformations," Papers 2412.06092, arXiv.org.
    3. Xu, Qifa & Xu, Mengnan & Jiang, Cuixia & Fu, Weizhong, 2023. "Mixed-frequency Growth-at-Risk with the MIDAS-QR method: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    4. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    5. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    6. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
    7. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    8. Sara Boni & Massimiliano Caporin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2024. "Nowcasting Inflation at Quantiles: Causality from Commodities," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS102, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    9. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    10. Tibor Szendrei & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Mark E. Schaffer, 2024. "MIDAS-QR with 2-Dimensional Structure," Papers 2406.15157, arXiv.org.
    11. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    12. Katalin Varga & Tibor Szendrei, 2024. "Non-stationary Financial Risk Factors and Macroeconomic Vulnerability for the UK," Papers 2404.01451, arXiv.org.
    13. Gloria González-Rivera & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz Ortega, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," CREATES Research Papers 2021-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Labonne, Paul, 2025. "Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 229-250.
    15. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    16. Eraslan, Sercan & Reif, Magnus, 2023. "A latent weekly GDP indicator for Germany," Technical Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Helena Chuliá & Ignacio Garrón & Jorge M. Uribe, 2022. ""Daily Growth at Risk: financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same"," IREA Working Papers 202208, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2022.
    18. Matteo Santi, 2025. "A high-dimensional GDP-at-risk and Inflation-at-risk for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2022. "Financial conditions and macroeconomic downside risks in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Afunts, Geghetsik & Cato, Misina & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine," Discussion Papers 03/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Liu, Han & Wang, Lijun & Zhuo, Xingxuan, 2025. "Unveiling the shadows: The effects of financial conditions on the tail risks of China's macroeconomic activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-14.
    22. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    23. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    24. Marian Vavra, 2023. "Bias-Correction in Time Series Quantile Regression Models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    25. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    26. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    27. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Negin Sanadgol & Amir Takaloo & Hamidreza Kamyabfar, 2023. "The application of structural and machine learning models to predict the default risk of listed companies in the Iranian capital market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(11), pages 1-24, November.
    28. Ignacio Garr'on & Andrey Ramos, 2025. "High-frequency Density Nowcasts of U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers 2501.03380, arXiv.org.
    29. Škrinjarić, Tihana, 2024. "Growth-at-risk for macroprudential policy stance assessment: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1075, Bank of England.
    30. Tibor Szendrei & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2024. "Momentum Informed Inflation-at-Risk," Papers 2408.12286, arXiv.org.
    31. Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    32. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    33. Schick, Manuel, 2024. "Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0750, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

  10. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," PSE Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Barigozzi, Matteo & Massacci, Daniele, 2025. "Modelling large dimensional datasets with Markov switching factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. M. Casares & H. Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2020. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Post-Print hal-03004552, HAL.
    3. Danilo Leiva‐León & Gabriel Perez Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2024. "Real‐time weakness of the global economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 813-832, August.
    4. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    5. Ohikhuare, Obaika M., 2023. "How geopolitical risk drives spillover interconnectedness between crude oil and exchange rate markets: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    6. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    7. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Asymmetric uncertainty : Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    8. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    9. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Leading indicators of financial stress in Croatia: a regime switching approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 205-232.

  11. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Papers 2007.00273, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    2. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024. "Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Aaronson, Daniel & Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Fogarty, Michael & Sacks, Daniel W. & Seo, Boyoung, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment insurance claims in realtime with Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 567-581.
    5. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    6. Wang, Yupeng & Shimokawa, Satoru, 2024. "A trade-off between lives and the economy? Subsidizing dining out under the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    8. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2024. "Econometrics of machine learning methods in economic forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 10, pages 246-273, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Caroline Jardet & Baptiste Meunier, 2022. "Nowcasting world GDP growth with high‐frequency data," Post-Print hal-03647097, HAL.
    10. Vera Z. Eichenauer & Ronald Indergand & Isabel Z. Martínez & Christoph Sax, 2022. "Obtaining consistent time series from Google Trends," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 694-705, April.
    11. Matteo Mogliani & Anna Simoni, 2024. "Bayesian Bi-level Sparse Group Regressions for Macroeconomic Density Forecasting," Papers 2404.02671, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    12. Atin Aboutorabi & Ga'etan de Rassenfosse, 2024. "Nowcasting R&D Expenditures: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2407.11765, arXiv.org.
    13. Alexandra Bozhechkova & Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "CLARA and CARLSON: Combination of Ensemble and Neural Network Machine Learning Methods for GDP Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(3), pages 45-69, September.
    14. Jad Beyhum & Jonas Striaukas, 2023. "Factor-augmented sparse MIDAS regressions with an application to nowcasting," Papers 2306.13362, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    15. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Nicolas Woloszko, 2020. "Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1634, OECD Publishing.
    17. Valentin BURCA, 2020. "Earnings Quality Versus Accounting Regulation. Empirical Assesment On Accuracy Of Macroeconomic Estimates," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 72-87, November.
    18. Alexander Jaax & Annabelle Mourougane & Frederic Gonzales, 2024. "Nowcasting services trade for the G7 economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 1336-1386, April.
    19. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    20. Michael Anthonisz, 2023. "Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 371-380, September.
    21. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    22. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    23. Lolić, Ivana & Matošec, Marina & Sorić, Petar, 2024. "DIY google trends indicators in social sciences: A methodological note," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    24. VAN DER WIELEN Wouter & BARRIOS Salvador, 2020. "Fear and Employment During the COVID Pandemic: Evidence from Search Behaviour in the EU," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2020-08, Joint Research Centre.
    25. Xiao-Shan Chen & Min Gyeong Kim & Chi-Ho Lin & Hyung Jong Na, 2025. "Development of per Capita GDP Forecasting Model Using Deep Learning: Including Consumer Goods Index and Unemployment Rate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-28, January.
    26. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    27. Tea Livaic & Ana Perisic, 2019. "What can Google Tell us about Bitcoin Trading Volume in Croatia? Evidence from the Online Marketplace Localbitcoins," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(4), pages 707-715.
    28. Woloszko, Nicolas, 2024. "Nowcasting with panels and alternative data: The OECD weekly tracker," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1302-1335.
    29. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    30. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    31. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Henrique F. Pires, 2021. "The Proper Use of Google Trends in Forecasting Models," Papers 2104.03065, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.

  12. Laurent Ferrara & Daniela Marconi & Ignacio Hernando, 2018. "International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis," Post-Print hal-02334589, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Staff Reports 819, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2021. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2021-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Wenbo Jia & Hao Jiang & Yiqing Lyv & Stavros Sindakis, 2025. "Uncertainty’s Effect on China’s Knowledge-Based Economy: Transformation Beyond Trade," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 4684-4725, March.
    4. Muhammad Aftab & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Kate Phylaktis, 2021. "Economic integration and the currency and equity markets nexus," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5278-5301, October.
    5. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    6. Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Sophie Haincourt, 2018. "The Nature of the Shock Matters: NiGEM Estimations of the Macroeconomic Effects of Recent Dollar and Euro Fluctuations," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244(1), pages 30-38, May.
    8. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2018. "How Important are Global Factors for Understanding the Dynamics of International Capital Flows?," Working Papers in Economics 2018-2, University of Salzburg.
    9. Jaime Marquez, 2023. "Stylized Facts of the FOMC’s Longer-Run Forecasts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    11. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    12. Mészáros Mercédesz & Kiss Gábor Dávid, 2020. "Spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy on capital markets in the shadow of the Eurozone: A sample of non-Eurozone countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(2), pages 171-195, June.

  13. Laurent Ferrara & Menzie Chinn & Raffaella Giacomini, 2018. "Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy," Post-Print hal-01635944, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    3. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.

  14. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Ladiray, 2018. "A Brief History of Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Software Tools," Post-Print hal-03754072, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Simone di Paolo & Danilo Liberati, 2024. "Seasonal adjustment of credit time series in the Bank of Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 835, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  15. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Shinohara, Takeshi & Okuda, Tatsushi & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2021. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 72(3), pages 246-267, July.
    3. Nino Buliskeria & Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Uncertain Trends in Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers IES 2024/1, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
    5. Candelon, Bertrand & Ferrara, Laurent & Joëts, Marc, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2020. "Measuring Exchange Rate Risks During Periods of Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2020-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    8. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Thanh Dinh Su, 2022. "When ‘uncertainty’ becomes ‘unknown’: Influences of economic uncertainty on the shadow economy," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 677-716, September.
    9. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado, 2024. "Impact of uncertainty on economic growth: The role of pro‐market institutions in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04725308, HAL.
    11. Muhammet Daştan & Kerem Karabulut & Ömer Yalçınkaya, 2024. "The time-varying impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic activity in a small open economy: the case of Turkey," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(2), pages 275-311, May.
    12. Ugwu Ephraim & Ehinomen Christopher, 2024. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and Economic Growth Uncertainty in West Africa," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 203-226.
    13. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    14. Laurent FERRARA & Stéphane LHUISSIER & Fabien TRIPIER, 2018. "Uncertainty and macroeconomics: transmission channels and policy implications," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 61, April.
    15. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    16. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

  16. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "Common Factors of Commodity Prices," Working papers 645, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CEPR Discussion Papers 14047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H. & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Forecasting oil prices: Can large BVARs help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    5. C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Temperature in the Iberian Peninsula: Trend, seasonality, and heterogeneity," Papers 2406.14145, arXiv.org.
    6. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    7. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    8. Di Pace, Federico & Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike," Bank of England working papers 901, Bank of England.
    9. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    10. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    12. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Working Papers 2006, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    17. Florentina Paraschiv & Stine Marie Reese & Margrethe Ringkjøb Skjelstad, 2020. "Portfolio stress testing applied to commodity futures," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 203-240, June.
    18. Schmidt, Torsten & Kirsch, Florian & Dirks, Maximilian W., 2021. "Kurzfristige Perspektiven der Rohstoffpreisentwicklung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 251878.
    19. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    20. Amalia, Shendy & Effendi, Kharisya Ayu & Riantani, Suskim, 2024. ""Carbon Spectacular" - Exploring the Path to Enhance the Precision of Fiscal and Tax Support for Innovative Technologies in Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction," OSF Preprints 4rydm, Center for Open Science.
    21. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    22. Ferreiro Javier Ojea, 2019. "Structural change in the link between oil and the European stock market: implications for risk management," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 53-125, January.
    23. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & McKinnon, Kate, 2023. "The evolution of commodity market financialization: Implications for portfolio diversification," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    24. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    25. Anthony Garratt & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Commodity prices and inflation risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 392-414, March.
    26. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2024. "Commodity prices and international Inflation, 1851–1913," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    27. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    28. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2022. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," FEEM Working Papers 329739, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    29. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    30. Qian, Chenqi & Zhang, Tianding & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    31. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    32. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    33. Dario Caldara & Michele Cavallo & Matteo Iacoviello, 2016. "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1173, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    35. Sun, Yiqun & Ji, Hao & Cai, Xiurong & Li, Jiangchen, 2023. "Joint extreme risk of energy prices-evidence from European energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    36. Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    37. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    38. Metallinos Pavlos, 2022. "Failure Case of Earned Value Method (EVM): The “Absurd” of the Use of Management & Contingency Reserves Budgeting," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 41-75, January.
    39. Matsumoto, Akito & Pescatori, Andrea & Wang, Xueliang, 2023. "Commodity prices and global economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    40. Raphael Chiappini & Delphine Lahet, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," Post-Print hal-03431453, HAL.
    41. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2017. "Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities," CEPR Discussion Papers 12357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    43. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    44. Marek Kwas & Alessia Paccagnini & Michal Rubaszek, 2020. "Common Factors and the Dynamics of Cereal Prices: A Forecasting Perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2020-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    46. Consolo, Agostino & Hänsel, Matthias, 2024. "HANK faces unemployment," Working Paper Series 2953, European Central Bank.
    47. Diaz, Elena Maria & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2505, European Central Bank.
    48. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    49. Andrés Fernández & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/280, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    51. Kamocsai, László & Ormos, Mihály, 2025. "Modeling gasoline price volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    52. Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen & Robert Wichmann, 2021. "The dynamics of commodity return comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1597-1617, October.
    53. Delle Chiaie, S., 2015. "The fall in oil prices in 2014: the role of supply and demand components," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 12, October..
    54. Amelie Schischke & Patric Papenfuß & Andreas Rathgeber, 2024. "The three co’s to jointly model commodity markets: co-production, co-consumption and co-trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 883-925, February.
    55. Theodora Bermpei & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Jebreel Alshalahi, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Post-Print hal-04129400, HAL.
    56. Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "Forecasting Net Charge-Off Rates of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies using Macroeconomic Latent Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    57. Claudia Wellenreuther, 2021. "Konjunkturschlaglicht: Rohstoffpreise: Superzyklus oder Aufschwung? [Economic headline: Commodity prices: Supercycle or upswing?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 663-664, August.
    58. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    59. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2019. "Forecasting prices of selected metals with Bayesian data-rich models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    60. Jacho, Domenica & Cruz, Zoe & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2024. "Effect of terms of trade on the Latin American Labor market," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    61. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    62. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "The price of crude oil and (conditional) out-of-sample predictability of world industrial production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    63. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    64. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    67. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    68. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices," Staff Analytical Notes 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    69. Vietha Devia SS, 2019. "Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Variables (Case Study of Indonesia as Emerging Economic Country)," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(5), pages 257-271.
    70. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    71. World Bank, 2024. "Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 42219, April.
    72. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.
    73. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.

  17. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Michel Juillard & Daniele Siena, 2017. "Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results," Working papers 625, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Castelletti-Font & Pierrick Clerc & Matthieu Lemoine, 2017. "Should euro area countries cut taxes on labour or capital in order to boost their growth?," Working papers 634, Banque de France.
    2. Wang, Shu-Ling, 2021. "Fiscal stimulus in a high-debt economy? A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 118-135.
    3. Paul Cosmin Alin ENÃCHESCU, 2020. "Impact Of Fiscal Policy On The Economic Cycle In Romania," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 19(3), pages 169-176.
    4. Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning, 2023. "Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-44.
    5. Gábor P. Kiss, 2020. "Aggregate Fiscal Stabilisation Policy: Panacea or Scapegoat?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 55-87.
    6. Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Fiscal devaluation and labour market frictions in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1241, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2019. "The international transmission of US tax shocks: a proxy-SVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1223, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  18. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2016. "What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks," Staff Working Papers 16-25, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & ISTREFI, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    2. Christian Grimme, 2023. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 143-169, February.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & J. Milovich, 2015. "Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment: the Role of Expected Demand and Uncertainty," Working papers 571, Banque de France.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    5. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0220, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    6. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    7. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
    8. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2016-19, CEPII research center.
    9. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    10. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession," Papers 2007.15419, arXiv.org.
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 559, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    14. Rodrigo Cerda & Álvaro Silva & José Tomás Valente, 2018. "Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(26), pages 2894-2908, June.
    15. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    16. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2022. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Working Papers wp1174, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    17. Martin Enilov & Yuan Wang, 2022. "Tourism and economic growth: Multi-country evidence from mixed-frequency Granger causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1216-1239, August.
    18. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Missale & Eduardo Rossi, 2018. "Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A MIDAS-SVAR model of US capital flows," Papers 1802.00793, arXiv.org.
    19. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, September.
    20. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2023. "Are the Effects of Uncertainty Shocks Big or Small?," Working Papers 244, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    21. Muhammet Daştan & Kerem Karabulut & Ömer Yalçınkaya, 2024. "The time-varying impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic activity in a small open economy: the case of Turkey," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(2), pages 275-311, May.
    22. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.
    23. Kyosuke Chikamatsu, Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, Kazuki Otaka, 2018. "Nowcasting Japanese GDPs," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    24. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    25. Dario Bonciani & Andrea Tafuro, 2018. "The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Daily Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 89-104, April.
    26. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2020. "Bank fee-based shocks and the U.S. business cycle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    27. Andrea Cipollini & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2021. "Financial distress and real economic activity in Lithuania: a Granger causality test based on mixed-frequency VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 855-881, August.
    28. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    29. Aaron J. Amburgey, 2025. "How Election Shocks Impact Markets: Evidence from Sectoral Stock Prices," Papers 2504.02731, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    30. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2022. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A replication of the vector autoregressive investigation by Bloom (2009)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 210-217, January.
    31. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2017. "Uncertainty Through the Lenses of A Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 12339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  19. Cabrillac, Bruno & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Borin, Alessandro & Bussière, Matthieu & Cezar, Raphael & Derviz, Alexis & Dimitropoulou, Dimitra & Ferrara, Laurent & Gächter, 2016. "Understanding the weakness in global trade - What is the new normal?," Occasional Paper Series 178, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Gächter, Martin & Gkrintzalis, Ioannis, 2017. "The finance–trade nexus revisited: Is the global trade slowdown also a financial story?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 21-25.
    2. A. Boileau & L. Carlino & A. S. Lafon, 2016. "In the first half of 2016, the main French groups increased their profitability," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 40-51, Winter.
    3. Guillaume Gaulier & Aude Sztulman & Deniz Ünal, 2019. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02315466, HAL.
    4. Rougès, D. & Strauss-Kahn, M.-O., 2017. "Sondage 2016 sur les Français et l’économie : comportements, préoccupations et attentes," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 15-23.
    5. Xuefeng Qian & Zhao Liu & Ying Pan, 2017. "China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 65-83, November.
    6. Bureau, B. & Bürker, M. & Libert, T., 2017. "La situation des entreprises en France en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 39-55.
    7. Sondermann, David & Consolo, Agostino & Gunnella, Vanessa & Koester, Gerrit & Lambrias, Kyriacos & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Nerlich, Carolin & Petroulakis, Filippos & Saiz, Lorena & Serafini, Roberta, 2019. "Economic structures 20 years into the euro," Occasional Paper Series 224, European Central Bank.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2017. "Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities," CEPR Discussion Papers 12357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. R. Cezar, 2016. "France’s pharmaceutical industry in global value chains," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 52-63, Winter.
    10. E. Buttin, 2016. "Green bonds: a solution for financing the energy transition or a simple buzzword?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 20-27, Winter.
    11. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    12. C. Mazet-Sonilhac & J.-S. Mésonnier, 2016. "The cost of equity for large non-financial companies in the euro area: an estimation over the last decade," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 28-39, Winter.
    13. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2019. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 703-745, December.
    14. Humbertclaude, S. & Monteil, F., 2017. "Le patrimoine économique national en 2015 : un modeste rebond," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 5-14.
    15. Hagemejer, Jan & Hałka, Aleksandra & Kotłowski, Jacek, 2022. "Global value chains and exchange rate pass-through—The role of non-linearities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 461-478.
    16. Cezar, R., 2017. "L’industrie pharmaceutique française dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 57-69.
    17. Boileau, A. & Chavy-Martin, A.-C., 2017. "Les délais de paiement sont stables en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 25-38.
    18. B. Cabrillac & L. Gauvin & J.-L. Gossé, 2016. "GDP-indexed bonds: what are the benefits for issuing countries, investors and international financial stability?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 6-19, Winter.
    19. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.

  20. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    2. Alexander Jaax & Annabelle Mourougane & Frederic Gonzales, 2024. "Nowcasting services trade for the G7 economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 1336-1386, April.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
    4. Menzie Chinn & Baptiste Meunier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2023. "Nowcasting world trade in real time with machine learning [Estimation du commerce mondial en temps réel grâce à l’apprentissage automatique]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 248.
    5. Çiðdem Kurt Cihangir, 2018. "Küresel Risk Algýsýnýn Küresel Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10.

  21. Frederique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2015. "Comparing the shapes of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Post-Print hal-01385943, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
    2. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," MPRA Paper 79413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gadea, María Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2017. "Dissecting US recoveries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 59-63.
    5. Rivaud, S., 2015. "Impacts macroéconomiques internationaux des réformes structurelles," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 200, pages 91-105.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara & Marco E. Terrones, 2020. "Global recessions," CAMA Working Papers 2020-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2015. "Revisiting non-linearities in business cycles around the world," MPRA Paper 65668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lopes, Artur Silva & Zsurkis, Gabriel Florin, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

  22. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & J. Milovich, 2015. "Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment: the Role of Expected Demand and Uncertainty," Working papers 571, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Valerio Della Corte & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & J. Milovich, 2015. "Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment: the Role of Expected Demand and Uncertainty," Working papers 571, Banque de France.
    3. Luca Fornaro & Gianluca Benigno, 2015. "Stagnation Traps," 2015 Meeting Papers 810, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    5. Maxime Leboeuf & Robert Fay, 2016. "What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?," Discussion Papers 16-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Giordano, Claire & Marinucci, Marco & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The macro determinants of firms' and households' investment: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-133.
    7. Candelon, Bertrand & Ferrara, Laurent & Joëts, Marc, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. Matej Bajgar & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Timmis, 2021. "Intangibles and industry concentration: supersize me," CEP Discussion Papers dp1806, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Russell Barnett & Rhys R. Mendes, 2017. "A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment," Staff Analytical Notes 17-7, Bank of Canada.
    10. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    12. Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2019. "Bank credit, liquidity and firm-level investment: are recessions different?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1239, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Renata Pasalicova, 2017. "Firm Investment, Financial Constraints and Monetary Transmission: An Investigation with Czech Firm-Level Data," Working Papers 2017/16, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    14. Bajgar, Matej & Criscuolo, Chiara & Timmis, Jonathan, 2025. "Intangibles and industry concentration: a cross-country analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126673, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. José Bardaji & Jean‐Charles Bricongne & Benoît Campagne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2019. "Domestic and export performances of French firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 785-817, March.
    16. Willem Vanlaer & Mattia Picarelli & Wim Marneffe, 2021. "Debt and Private Investment: Does the EU Suffer from a Debt Overhang?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 789-820, September.
    17. Jože Damijan & Jozef Konings & Črt Kostevc & Katja Zajc Kejžar, 2022. "Explaining the Low Level of Investment in Slovenia," European Economy - Discussion Papers 169, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Agostino Consolo & Marco Langiulli & David Sondermann, 2019. "Business investment in euro area countries: the role of institutions and debt overhang," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(7), pages 561-575, April.
    19. Antoine Berthou & Caroline Jardet & Daniele Siena & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Costs and consequences of a trade war: a structural analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 72, december.
    20. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Ye, Lei (Sandy) & Islamaj, Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 11886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Lawless, Martina & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2018. "Estimating an SME investment gap and the contribution of financing frictions," Papers WP589, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    24. Mercatanti, Andrea & Mäkinen, Taneli & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The role of financial factors for European corporate investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 246-258.
    25. Eric Gargan & Eoin Kenny & Cynthia O'Regan & Conor O'Toole, 2024. "A Cross Country Perspective on Irish Enterprise Investment: Do Fundamentals or Constraints Matter?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 173-215.
    26. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Assessing the usefulness of survey‐based data in forecasting firms' capital formation: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 491-513, April.
    27. Andrin Spescha & Martin Woerter, 2016. "Research and Development as an Initiator of Fixed Capital Investment," KOF Working papers 16-402, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    28. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Aurora Maria Mordonu, 2015. "Interlinkages between Household and Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 017, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    30. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2021. "Forecasting corporate capital accumulation in Italy: the role of survey-based information," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    31. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156, July.
    32. Alessandro Arrighetti & Fabio Landini & Giorgia Sorrentino, 2020. "La ripresa passa dalla cogestione della filiera," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(111), pages 225-235.
    33. Gigout, Timothee & Bricongne, Jean-Charles, 2019. "Explaining the Persistent Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Firm Growth," MPRA Paper 94228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Leslie G. Manison & Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Towards Sustainable Growth: Rebuilding the Foundations of the Cyprus Economy," Development Discussion Papers 2016-07, JDI Executive Programs.
    35. Kazuo OGAWA & Elmer STERKEN & Ichiro TOKUTSU, 2019. "Why Is Investment So Weak Despite High Profitability? A panel study of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 19009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    36. Brendah Chepkorir & Onesmus Mbaabu & Lenity Maugu & Miriam Thuo, 2024. "Effect of Financial Deepening on Private Investment in Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(9), pages 2621-2636, September.
    37. Juan Carluccio & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2019. "Investment and the WACC: new micro evidence for France," Working papers 710, Banque de France.
    38. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    39. Anne DUQUERROY & Clément MAZET-SONILHAC, 2020. "Funding shock: how will the investment of large French firms be affected? [Choc de financement : quels effets sur l’investissement des grandes entreprises françaises ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 229.
    40. Kim Sujin, 2018. "Investment Puzzle: Deeper Roots," Working Papers id:12433, eSocialSciences.
    41. Robert Fay & Justin-Damien Guénette & Martin Leduc & Louis Morel, 2017. "Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2017(Spring), pages 56-67.
    42. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    43. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2023. "Consumer price rigidity in periods of low and high inflation: the case of Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 34, Bank of Lithuania.

  23. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," Post-Print hal-02979744, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
    3. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2019. "Dornsbush revisited from an asymmetrical perspective : Evidence from G20 nominal effective exchange rates," THEMA Working Papers 2019-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Massimiliano Marcellino & Matteo Mogliani, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: the return of non-linearity?," Post-Print hal-01635951, HAL.
    6. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Post-Print halshs-03954158, HAL.
    7. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    8. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Grabowski Daniel & Staszewska-Bystrova Anna & Winker Peter, 2017. "Generating prediction bands for path forecasts from SETAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.

  24. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the Great Recession: the role of output-employment non-linearities," Post-Print hal-01385949, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    2. Biswajit Nag & Willem van der Geest, 2020. "Economic Impact Analysis of Covid-19 Implication on India’s GDP, Employment and Inequality," Working Papers 2041, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Did Okun's Law Die after the Great Recession?," Working papers 2016-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Xuexin Wang & Yixiao Sun, 2019. "An Asymptotic F Test for Uncorrelatedness in the Presence of Time Series Dependence," Working Papers 2019-05-24, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    5. James DeNicco & Christopher A. Laincz, 2018. "Jobless Recovery: A Time Series Look at the United States," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 3-25, March.
    6. Bartosik Krzysztof, 2024. "The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 58-83.
    7. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    8. L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014. "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
    9. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2024. "Testing Okun’s Law for Turkey (1923-2019)," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 113-132, April.
    10. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    11. Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Impacto de la política de empleo juvenil en la disminución del desempleo en los países de la Unión Europea, período 2002-2017 [Impact of youth employment policy on the reduction of unemployment in ," MPRA Paper 111026, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2021.

  25. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach," Working papers 515, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 617-625.
    4. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816, November.
    5. Ferrara , L. & Marsilli, C., 2016. "Nowcasting global economic growth," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 23, April..
    6. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Working Papers 2017-08, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    7. Katja Heinisch & Axel Lindner, 2019. "For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 255-260, February.
    8. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara & Marco E. Terrones, 2020. "Global recessions," CAMA Working Papers 2020-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Chatelais, Nicolas & Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur & Chinn, Menzie D., 2023. "Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. I. A. Kirichenko & A. V. Smirnov, 2024. "Composite Supply Index of Investment Products as a Proxy Indicator of Fixed Capital Investment," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 215-225, April.
    12. Jack Fosten & Shaoni Nandi, 2023. "Nowcasting from cross‐sectionally dependent panels," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 898-919, September.
    13. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2024. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1220-1244, November.
    14. Denisa Georgiana Banulescu & Ferrara Laurent & Marsilli Clément, 2019. "Prévoir la volatilité d’un actif financier à l’aide d’un modèle à mélange de fréquences," Working Papers hal-03563168, HAL.
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    16. Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    17. Mahmut Gunay, 2018. "Nowcasting Annual Turkish GDP Growth with MIDAS," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
    19. Martin Enilov, 2024. "The predictive power of commodity prices for future economic growth: Evaluating the role of economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3040-3062, July.
    20. Nicolas Chatelais & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon & Menzie D. Chinn, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section," NBER Working Papers 30305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    22. Stankevich, Ivan, 2020. "Comparison of macroeconomic indicators nowcasting methods: Russian GDP case," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 113-127.
    23. Fosten, Jack & Nandi, Shaoni, 2025. "Nowcasting U.S. state-level CO2 emissions and energy consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 20-30.
    24. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    25. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
    26. Baumann, Ursel & Gomez-Salvador, Ramon & Seitz, Franz, 2019. "Detecting turning points in global economic activity," Working Paper Series 2310, European Central Bank.

  26. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    2. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Forecast evaluation of DSGE models: Linear and nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1130, September.
    4. Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.
    5. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    6. Florian Misch & Martin Rey, 2022. "The case for a loan-based euro area stability fund," Discussion Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 May 2022.
    7. Ohikhuare, Obaika M., 2023. "How geopolitical risk drives spillover interconnectedness between crude oil and exchange rate markets: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    8. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    9. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 0. "Econometric history of the growth–volatility relationship in the USA: 1919–2017," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 0, pages 1-24.
    10. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Paul, Manas & Bhanja, Niyati & Dar, Arif Billah, 2021. "Dynamics of connectedness across crude oil, precious metals and exchange rate: Evidence from time and frequency domains," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Nady Rapelanoro, 2016. "Spillover effects of global liquiditys expansion on emerging countries: evidences from a Panel VAR approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.

  27. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun," Post-Print hal-01386100, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    2. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

  28. Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Comments on: Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," Post-Print hal-01385874, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2017. "Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(3), pages 133-154, July.

  29. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2013. "Evaluation of Regime Switching Models for Real-Time Business Cycle Analysis of the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00965005, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    4. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    5. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  30. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hallin, Marc & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Zevallos, Mauricio, 2019. "Forecasting conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series: a general dynamic factor approach," Textos para discussão 505, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Herwartz, Helmut & Ochsner, Christian & Rohloff, Hannes, 2020. "The credit composition of global liquidity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 409, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    6. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models," Post-Print halshs-02491811, HAL.
    7. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2019. "Synchronization Patterns in the European Union," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    9. Ferrara , L. & Marsilli, C., 2016. "Nowcasting global economic growth," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 23, April..
    10. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España.
    11. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & María del Carmen Delgado López, 2025. "Internal migration in Spain: identifying key drivers for forecasting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Hui ‘Fox’ Ling & Christian Franzen, 2017. "Online learning of time-varying stochastic factor structure by variational sequential Bayesian factor analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1277-1304, August.
    13. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Brett Rayner, 2020. "Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2020/045, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    15. Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    16. Denisa Georgiana Banulescu & Ferrara Laurent & Marsilli Clément, 2019. "Prévoir la volatilité d’un actif financier à l’aide d’un modèle à mélange de fréquences," Working Papers hal-03563168, HAL.
    17. L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014. "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
    18. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    19. Mariza Cooray & Rolando Gonzales Martinez, 2025. "Tracking the Hidden Forces Behind Laos' 2022 Exchange Rate Crisis and Balance of Payments Instability," Papers 2503.13308, arXiv.org.
    20. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    21. Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mitov, Ivan K., 2016. "A new approach to statistical arbitrage: Strategies based on dynamic factor models of prices and their performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-155.
    22. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    23. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    24. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
    25. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Textos para discussão 521, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    26. Karmous, Aida & Boubaker, Heni & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2019. "A dynamic factor model with stylized facts to forecast volatility for an optimal portfolio," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    27. Massimiliano Caporin & C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "The factor structure of exchange rates volatility: global and intermittent factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 31-45, July.

  31. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.

    Cited by:

    1. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    2. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2020. "Okun's Law: Copula-based Evidence from G7 Countries," MPRA Paper 103318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Jon D. Wisman & Aaron Pacitti, 2013. "Ending the Crisis With Guaranteed Employment and Retraining," Working Papers 2013-12, American University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Hogrefe, Jan & Sachs, Andreas, 2014. "Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  32. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Ortega, J-P., 2013. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Working papers 454, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
    2. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    5. Laine, Olli-Matti & Lindblad, Annika, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables: a MIDAS approach," BoF Economics Review 4/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Gani Ramadani & Magdalena Petrovska & Vesna Bucevska, 2021. "Evaluation of mixed frequency approaches for tracking near-term economic developments in North Macedonia," Working Papers 2021-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    7. Junttila, Juha & Vataja, Juuso, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 569-583.
    8. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    9. Grégory Levieuge, 2017. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 823-843, February.
    10. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
    11. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    12. Stefan Gebauer, 2017. "The Use of Financial Market Variables in Forecasting," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 115, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Ramadani Gani & Petrovska Magdalena & Bucevska Vesna, 2021. "Evaluation of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Tracking Near-Term Economic Developments in North Macedonia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 43-52, December.
    14. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    15. Mikosch, Heiner & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    17. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2017. "Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 824-839.
    18. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Post-Print hal-02181552, HAL.
    19. Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    20. Marie Bessec, 2015. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Post-Print hal-01276824, HAL.
    21. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    22. Tzeng, Kae-Yih & Su, Yi-Kai, 2024. "Can U.S. macroeconomic indicators forecast cryptocurrency volatility?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    23. Dorji, Karma Minjur Phuntsho, 2024. "Exploring Nowcasting Techniques for Real-Time GDP Estimation in Bhutan," MPRA Paper 121380, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2024.
    24. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    25. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    26. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

  33. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Une revue de la littérature des modèles à facteurs dynamiques," Post-Print hal-01385940, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Mouloud El Hafidi & Marouane Daoui, 2019. "Chocs de la politique monétaire et croissance économique au Maroc : une approche en terme de modèles FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03311354, HAL.

  34. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Testing the number of factors: An empirical assessment for forecasting purposes," Post-Print hal-01385876, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    2. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    4. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    6. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    7. Dalibor Stevanovic & Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo, 2014. "Selection of the number of factors in presence of structural instability: a Monte Carlo study," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-44, CIRANO.
    8. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    9. Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
    10. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.
    13. Mahmut Günay, 2015. "Forecasting Turkish Industrial Production Growth With Static Factor Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 64-78, September.

  35. Laurent Ferrara & Marcellino, M. & Matteo Mogliani, 2012. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," Working papers 383, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    3. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    5. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel A. Fernández-Gámez, 2022. "Quantum Computing and Deep Learning Methods for GDP Growth Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 803-829, February.
    6. Bartkus Algirdas, 2016. "A New Model with Regime Switching Errors: Forecasting Gdp in Times of Great Recession," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(2), pages 7-29, February.
    7. Kurmas Akdogan, 2016. "Unemployment Hysteresis and Structural Change in Europe," Working Papers 1618, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    9. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    10. M. Lenza & I. Moutachaker & I. Moutachaker, 2024. "Density forecasts of inflation : a quantile regression forest approach," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-12, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    11. Knut Lehre Seip & Yunus Yilmaz & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
    12. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Y. Dendramis & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2020. "A similarity‐based approach for macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 801-827, June.
    15. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2020. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Mahmut Gunay, 2016. "Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth with Financial Variables and Confidence Indicators," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1614, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    20. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 486-504, November.
    21. Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    22. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    23. Caterina Forti Grazzini & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Forecasting yield spreads under crisis-induced multiple breakpoints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1656-1664, December.
    24. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    25. Benjamin Garcia & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2017. "Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
    27. Federico Lampis, 2016. "Forecasting the sectoral GVA of a small Spanish region," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 38-44.
    28. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    29. Jackson, Karen & Magkonis, Georgios, 2024. "Exchange rate predictability: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    30. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," CREATES Research Papers 2018-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    31. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2023. "Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3089-3119, June.

  36. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    Cited by:

    1. Sipan Aslan & Ceylan Yozgatligil & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Temporal clustering of time series via threshold autoregressive models: application to commodity prices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 51-77, January.
    2. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Claude Diebolt, 2020. "L’idée de régulation dans les sciences : hommage à l’épistémologue Jean Piaget," Working Papers 01-20, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Claude Diebolt & Mamoudou Toure & Jamel Trabelsi, 2012. "Monetary Credibility Effects on Inflation Dynamics: A Macrohistorical Case Study," Working Papers 12-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Thi Hong Van Hoang, 2012. "Has gold been a hedge against inflation in France from 1949 to 2011? Empirical evidence of the French specificity," Working Papers 12-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

  37. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-probit approach," Post-Print hal-01385846, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    2. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    3. Harri Pönkä & Markku Stenborg, 2020. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 81-99, Spring.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    5. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.

  38. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2012. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    2. Donato Ceci & Orest Prifti & Andrea Silvestrini, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian GDP growth: a Factor MIDAS approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2018. "Bank stocks inform higher growth – A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," MPRA Paper 98253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Biswas, Rita & Loungani, Prakash & Liang, Zhongwen & Michaelides, Michael, 2024. "Linkages between financial and macroeconomic indicators in emerging markets and developing economies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    7. Gong, Yuting & Chen, Qiang & Liang, Jufang, 2018. "A mixed data sampling copula model for the return-liquidity dependence in stock index futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 586-598.
    8. Özgür Ömer Ersin & Melike Bildirici, 2023. "Financial Volatility Modeling with the GARCH-MIDAS-LSTM Approach: The Effects of Economic Expectations, Geopolitical Risks and Industrial Production during COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    10. Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    11. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    13. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2021. "Bank stocks inform higher growth—A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 210-220.
    14. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "Forecasting GDP growth using stock returns in Japan: A factor-augmented MIDAS approach," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-118, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

  39. Frédérique Bec & Bouabdallah, O. & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "The European way out of recession," Working papers 360, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries : A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-02979461, HAL.
    2. Moritz Cruz, 2015. "The need for official reserves in Latin America: Assessing the precautionary motive, 1995-2011," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, March.

  40. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2012. "Monthly GDP forecasting using bridge models: Comparison from the supply and demand sides for the French economy," Post-Print hal-01385807, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, September.
    2. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2748-2781.
    3. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    4. Olivier Darne & Amelie Charles, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP growth using data reduction methods: Evidence for the French economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2431-2439.
    5. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    7. Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
    8. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.

  41. Frédérique Bec & Bouabdallah, O. & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
    3. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries : A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-02979461, HAL.
    4. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," Post-Print hal-02979744, HAL.
    5. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00846501, HAL.
    6. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The European Way Out of Recessions," THEMA Working Papers 2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    7. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.

  42. Laurent Ferrara & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    2. William Miles, 2021. "Scottish home prices: compatible with Euro membership?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 3-22, June.
    3. Ales Melecky & Daniel Paksi, 2023. "European Housing Prices Through the Lens of Trends," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(5), pages 488-519.
    4. Maynou, Laia & Monfort, Mercedes & Morley, Bruce & Ordóñez, Javier, 2021. "Club convergence in European housing prices: The role of macroeconomic and housing market fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Laia Maynou & Bruce Morley & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "House price convergence Across Europe," Working Papers 2020/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    9. Tavakolian , Hossein & Morovat , Habib & Baheri Rad , Diar, 2019. "Housing in Banks’ Portfolio and its Effects on Monetary Policy in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(3), pages 277-315, July.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "France: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Housing Prices and Financial Stability," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/184, International Monetary Fund.
    11. William R Miles, 2022. "The northern ireland housing market: would unification with the south be problematic?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 162-192.
    12. Md. Saiful Islam & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2017. "Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) In Two SAARC Countries: Nepal and Pakistan," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    13. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Côte d’Ivoire: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Progress Report of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/184, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

  43. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2010. "Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00486655, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2010. "Testing unit roots and long range dependence of foreign exchange," Post-Print halshs-00505117, HAL.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00283710, HAL.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00277379, HAL.

  44. Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010. "Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries," Occasional Papers 1001, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
    2. William Miles, 2021. "Scottish home prices: compatible with Euro membership?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 3-22, June.
    3. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 119-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Persistence and Cyclical Dynamics of US and UK House Prices: Evidence from Over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201838, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Miles, William, 2020. "House price convergence in the euro zone: A pairwise approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    6. Maynou, Laia & Monfort, Mercedes & Morley, Bruce & Ordóñez, Javier, 2021. "Club convergence in European housing prices: The role of macroeconomic and housing market fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Laia Maynou & Bruce Morley & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "House price convergence Across Europe," Working Papers 2020/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    8. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    9. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    10. Sonsoles Gallego & Sándor Gardó & Reiner Martin & Luis Molina & José María Serena, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central Eastern and SouthEastern Europe (CESEE) and Latin America," Occasional Papers 1002, Banco de España.
    11. Luis J. Álvarez & Alberto Cabrero, 2010. "Does housing really lead the business cycle?," Working Papers 1024, Banco de España.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    13. Vincent Vicard & Emmanuelle Lavallée, 2013. "National borders matter...where one draws the lines too," Post-Print hal-01548193, HAL.
    14. Dittmann Iwona, 2017. "Similarity of Changes in Average Prices of Residential Properties in Europe in 2010-2016," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 63-74, December.
    15. Roma, Moreno & Vetlov, Igor & Maurin, Laurent, 2011. "Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors," Working Paper Series 1410, European Central Bank.
    16. Olivier de Bandt & Sheheryar Malik, 2010. "Is there Evidence of Shift-Contagion in International Housing Markets?," Working papers 295, Banque de France.
    17. Young Il Kim, 2014. "Housing and business cycles in Korea: assessing the role of housing volume cycles," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 3, pages 40-61, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2011. "Central banking in Latin America: changes, achievements, challenges," Occasional Papers 1102, Banco de España.
    19. Ales Melecky & Daniel Paksi, 2024. "Drivers of European housing prices in the new millennium: demand, financial, and supply determinants," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 731-753, August.
    20. Laurent Ferrara & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
    21. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2010. "Trend and cycle features in German residential investment before and after reunification," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    23. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

  45. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    2. Enrico D’Elia & Francesca Faedda & Giacomo Giannone, 2020. "Un modello statistico per il monitoraggio delle entrate tributarie (MoME)," Working Papers wp2020-5, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    3. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    4. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00505165, HAL.
    7. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
    8. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5522, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    10. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
    11. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    12. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00511979, HAL.
    13. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.
    14. Jana Juriová, 2015. "The role of foreign sentiment in small open economy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 57-68, June.
    15. Dorji, Karma Minjur Phuntsho, 2024. "Exploring Nowcasting Techniques for Real-Time GDP Estimation in Bhutan," MPRA Paper 121380, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2024.

  46. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    2. Patrick F ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs," Working papers 245, Banque de France.
    3. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    4. Christian R. Proaño & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan," IMK Working Paper 188-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    7. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    10. Alain Monfort, 2009. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Asset and Surplus VaR Constraints," Working papers 251, Banque de France.
    11. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.
    13. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2015. "Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers," Working Papers hal-01160090, HAL.
    14. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    15. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

  47. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers 232, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    2. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    3. Marie Bessec, 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    4. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    5. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024. "Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Zdeněk Zmeškal & Dana Dluhošová & Karolina Lisztwanová & Antonín Pončík & Iveta Ratmanová, 2023. "Distribution Prediction of Decomposed Relative EVA Measure with Levy-Driven Mean-Reversion Processes: The Case of an Automotive Sector of a Small Open Economy," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, May.
    7. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    8. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    10. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    11. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    13. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    14. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    15. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    17. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
    19. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
    20. Yifei Lyu & Jun Nie & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    21. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    22. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461522, HAL.
    23. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao & Rui-jun Su, 2022. "Application of the Real-Time Tourism Data in Nowcasting the Service Consumption in Taiwan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 1-4.
    24. Daniel Armeanu & Jean Vasile Andrei & Leonard Lache & Mirela Panait, 2017. "A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, July.
    25. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816, November.
    26. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
    27. Konstantin S. Rybak, 2023. "Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-23, December.
    28. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    29. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    30. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    31. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 7068, South African Reserve Bank.
    33. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    34. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    35. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2014. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    36. Jason Angelopoulos & Costas I. Chlomoudis, 2017. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for the U.S. Port Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(1), pages 22-37, January-M.
    37. Chatelais, Nicolas & Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur & Chinn, Menzie D., 2023. "Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    38. Karen Poghosyan, 2015. "Alternative models for forecasting the key macroeconomic variables in Armenia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 25-39, May.
    39. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    41. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    42. Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Forecasting US Unemployment with Radial Basis Neural Networks, Kalman Filters and Support Vector Regressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 569-587, April.
    43. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    44. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    45. Clément Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    46. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    47. Anna Norin, 2011. "Nowcasting of the Gross Regional Product," ERSA conference papers ersa10p768, European Regional Science Association.
    48. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    49. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    50. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    51. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Zubarev Andrey & Rybak Konstantin, 2021. "Наукастинг Ввп: Динамическая Факторная Модель И Официальные Прогнозы," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 34-40, December.
    53. Jason Angelopoulos, 2017. "Creating and assessing composite indicators: Dynamic applications for the port industry and seaborne trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 126-159, March.
    54. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
    55. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
    56. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2017. "An Early Warning System for currency crises in Argentina and Brazil 1990-2009," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 14(2), pages 47-68, Julio-Dic.
    57. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    58. Nicolas Chatelais & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon & Menzie D. Chinn, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section," NBER Working Papers 30305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    60. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao, 2022. "Nowcasting the GDP in Taiwan and the Real-Time Tourism Data," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 1-2.
    61. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Post-Print hal-03461522, HAL.
    62. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    63. Zubarev Andrey & Rybak Konstantin, 2021. "GDP Nowcasting: Dynamic Factor Model vs. Official Forecasts [Наукастинг Ввп: Динамическая Факторная Модель И Официальные Прогнозы]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 34-40, December.
    64. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    65. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    66. Branimir, Jovanovic & Magdalena, Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," MPRA Paper 43162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Konstantin S. Rybak, 2023. "Evaluating the Role of Global Factors in GDP Nowcasting [Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-23, December.
    68. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    69. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    70. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    71. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    72. Mahmut Günay, 2015. "Forecasting Turkish Industrial Production Growth With Static Factor Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 64-78, September.
    73. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    74. Ibarra, Raul, 2012. "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1305-1313.

  48. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00423890, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Wavelets for Business Cycle Analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2013.

  49. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    2. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    5. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2012. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Working Papers hal-04141077, HAL.
    7. Barış Soybilgen, 2020. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 827-840, August.
    8. Goodhead, Robert & Parle, Conor, 2019. "Predicting Recessions in the Euro Area: A Factor Approach," Economic Letters 2/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting wind drought," Working Paper Series 18219, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    10. Carsten Jentsch & Lena Reichmann, 2019. "Generalized Binary Time Series Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    11. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Vincent Vicard & Emmanuelle Lavallée, 2013. "National borders matter...where one draws the lines too," Post-Print hal-01548193, HAL.
    13. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers halshs-02549044, HAL.
    14. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    15. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    16. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2021. "Recession probabilities for the Eurozone at the zero lower bound: Challenges to the term spread and rise of alternatives," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1000-1026, September.
    17. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    19. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  50. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Persistence and Cyclical Dynamics of US and UK House Prices: Evidence from Over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201838, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Monica Billio & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dynamical Interaction between Financial and Business Cycles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692239, HAL.
    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    5. Vincent Vicard & Emmanuelle Lavallée, 2013. "National borders matter...where one draws the lines too," Post-Print hal-01548193, HAL.

  51. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Gu gan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Working papers 224, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Artiach, Miguel & Arteche, Josu, 2012. "Doubly fractional models for dynamic heteroscedastic cycles," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 2139-2158.
    2. Artiach, Miguel, 2012. "Leverage, skewness and amplitude asymmetric cycles," MPRA Paper 41267, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  52. Karim Barhoumi & V ronique Brunhes-Lesage & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec, 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, September.
    3. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    4. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B. & Darné, O., 2008. "OPTIM: a quarterly forecasting tool for French GDP," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 31-47, Autumn.
    9. Marie Bessec, 2010. "Étalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 193(2), pages 77-99.
    10. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    11. Tomasz Jasiński & Paweł Mielcarz, 2013. "Consumption as a Factor of Polish Economic Growth During the Global Recession of 2008/2009: A Comparison with Spain and Hungary," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 7(2), June.
    12. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    13. Ferrara, L., 2008. "The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 49-61, Autumn.

  53. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l conomie fran aise," Working papers 187, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Ferrara, L., 2008. "The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 49-61, Autumn.

  54. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    Cited by:

    1. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    2. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    3. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Post-Print halshs-00803457, HAL.
    6. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    7. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
    8. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    9. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    10. Fathi Elachhab, 2009. "Décrire le cycle économique en Tunisie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 75-92.
    11. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    13. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00185372, HAL.
    15. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    16. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2007. "Dating EU15 Monthly Business Cycle Jointly Using GDP and IPI," Working Papers 2007_19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    18. Ferrara, L., 2008. "The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 49-61, Autumn.
    19. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2015. "Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers," Working Papers hal-01160090, HAL.
    20. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    21. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

  55. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    2. Monica Billio & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dynamical Interaction between Financial and Business Cycles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692239, HAL.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
    4. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    5. Barsoum, Fady & Stankiewicz, Sandra, 2015. "Forecasting GDP growth using mixed-frequency models with switching regimes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50.
    6. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    7. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility Spillovers, Interdependence and Comovements: A Markov Switching Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    8. Richard Apau & Peter Moores-Pitt & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "Regime-Switching Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

  56. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Fractional seasonality: Models and Application to Economic Activity in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185370, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2008. "Fractional and seasonal filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00646178, HAL.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00283710, HAL.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00277379, HAL.
    5. Dominique Guegan, 2007. "Global and local stationary modelling in finance: theory and empirical evidence," Post-Print halshs-00187875, HAL.

  57. Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2005. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00201309, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Roque Montero, 2012. "Does Linearity in the Dynamics of Inflation Gap and Unemployment Rate Matter?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 3-26, April.
    2. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Is it possible to discriminate between different switching regressions models? An empirical investigation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00368358, HAL.
    3. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    4. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    5. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  58. Anas, Jacques & Ferrara, Laurent, 2002. "Un indicateur d'entrée et sortie de récession: application aux Etats-Unis [A start-end recession index: Application for United-States]," MPRA Paper 4043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    2. Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
    3. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Amine LAHIANI & Olivier SCAILLET, 2008. "Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-42, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    8. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00185372, HAL.
    9. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.

  59. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2001. "Forecasting with k-factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications," Post-Print halshs-00193667, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2010. "Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study," Post-Print hal-00486655, HAL.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2008. "Fractional and seasonal filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00646178, HAL.
    3. Sandro Sapio, 2004. "Market Design, Bidding Rules, and Long Memory in Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    5. McCoy, E. J. & Stephens, D. A., 2004. "Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 713-730.
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Boubaker Heni & Boutahar Mohamed, 2011. "A wavelet-based approach for modelling exchange rates," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(2), pages 201-220, June.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo.
    9. Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique & Vignal, Bertrand, 2009. "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 505-510, April.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00283710, HAL.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Persistence and Cycles in Historical Oil Prices Data," Working Papers 201375, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Long Memory At The Long Run And At The Cyclical Frequencies: Modelling Real Wages In England, 1260 -1994," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-21, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "A Long-Memory Model for Multiple Cycles with an Application to the S&P500," CESifo Working Paper Series 10947, CESifo.
    14. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
    15. L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
    16. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00277379, HAL.
    17. Manabu Asai & Shelton Peiris & Michael McAleer & David E. Allen, 2018. "Cointegrated Dynamics for A Generalized Long Memory Process: An Application to Interest Rates," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2010. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 975, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Beaumont, Paul & Smallwood, Aaron, 2019. "Inference for likelihood-based estimators of generalized long-memory processes," MPRA Paper 96313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alfonso Dominguez & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Testing for Persistence in Real House Prices in 47 Countries from the OECD Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 11662, CESifo.
    21. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas, 2012. "A non-linear approach with long range dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials," NCID Working Papers 11/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    22. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    23. Souhir Ben Amor & Heni Boubaker & Lotfi Belkacem, 2022. "A Dual Generalized Long Memory Modelling for Forecasting Electricity Spot Price: Neural Network and Wavelet Estimate," Papers 2204.08289, arXiv.org.
    24. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "A Long-Memory Model for Multiple Cycles with an Application to the US Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-12, November.
    25. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 113-149.
    26. Tommaso Proietti & Federico Maddanu, 2021. "Modelling Cycles in Climate Series: the Fractional Sinusoidal Waveform Process," CEIS Research Paper 518, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Oct 2021.
    27. Rocha Souza, Leonardo & Jorge Soares, Lacir, 2007. "Electricity rationing and public response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 296-311, March.
    28. Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2019. "Model order selection in periodic long memory models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-94.
    29. Souza, Leonardo Rocha & Soares, Lacir Jorge, 2003. "Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 491, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    30. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Fractional seasonality: Models and Application to Economic Activity in the Euro Area," Post-Print halshs-00185370, HAL.
    31. Asai, M. & Peiris, S. & McAleer, M.J. & Allen, D.E., 2018. "Cointegrated Dynamics for A Generalized Long Memory Process," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2018-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    32. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    33. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
    34. Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2006. "Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28.
    35. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    36. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
    37. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2008. "Testing fractional order of long memory processes : a Monte Carlo study," Post-Print halshs-00259193, HAL.
    38. M. Shelton Peiris & Manabu Asai, 2016. "Generalized Fractional Processes with Long Memory and Time Dependent Volatility Revisited," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-21, September.
    39. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Time series modelling of sunspot numbers using long range cyclical dependence," Faculty Working Papers 06/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    40. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    41. Jan Beran & Jeremy Näscher & Fabian Pietsch & Stephan Walterspacher, 2024. "Testing for periodicity at an unknown frequency under cyclic long memory, with applications to respiratory muscle training," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 108(4), pages 705-731, December.

  60. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2001. "Comparison of parameter estimation methods in cyclical long memory time series," Post-Print halshs-00196426, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2004. "Estimating parameters for a k-GIGARCH process," Post-Print halshs-00188531, HAL.
    2. Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Estimation of k-factor GIGARCH process : a Monte Carlo study," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00235179, HAL.
    3. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2003. "Cointégration fractionnaire entre la consommation et le revenu," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 158(2), pages 123-142.
    4. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
    5. Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2009. "Wavelet Method for Locally Stationary Seasonal Long Memory Processes," Post-Print halshs-00375531, HAL.
    6. Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2006. "Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28.
    7. Rosa Espejo & Nikolai Leonenko & Andriy Olenko & María Ruiz-Medina, 2015. "On a class of minimum contrast estimators for Gegenbauer random fields," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(4), pages 657-680, December.
    8. Diongue Abdou Ka & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Estimation of k-Factor Gigarch Process: A Monte Carlo Study," Post-Print halshs-00375758, HAL.

  61. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2000. "Forecasting financial time series with generalized long memory processes," Post-Print halshs-00199126, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Artiach, Miguel & Arteche, Josu, 2012. "Doubly fractional models for dynamic heteroscedastic cycles," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 2139-2158.
    3. Rocha Souza, Leonardo & Jorge Soares, Lacir, 2007. "Electricity rationing and public response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 296-311, March.
    4. Souza, Leonardo Rocha & Soares, Lacir Jorge, 2003. "Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 491, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
    6. Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2006. "Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28.
    7. McElroy, Tucker S. & Holan, Scott H., 2016. "Computation of the autocovariances for time series with multiple long-range persistencies," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 44-56.

  62. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 1999. "Estimation and Applications of Gegenbauer Processes," Working Papers 99-27, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

    Cited by:

    1. Federico Maddanu, 2022. "A harmonically weighted filter for cyclical long memory processes," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(1), pages 49-78, March.
    2. Souza, Leonardo Rocha & Soares, Lacir Jorge, 2003. "Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 491, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2006. "Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28.
    4. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.

Articles

  1. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2023. "When are Google Data Useful to Nowcast GDP? An Approach via Preselection and Shrinkage," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1188-1202, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Ferrara, Laurent & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2022. "Guest editorial: Economic forecasting in times of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 527-528.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.

  5. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(25), pages 2865-2887, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Antoine Berthou & Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Sophie Haincourt & Francesco Pappadà & Julia Schmidt, 2018. "Global imbalances: build-up, unwinding and financial aspects [Les déséquilibres mondiaux persistent malgré le rééquilibrage d’après-crise : focus sur leur financement]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 220.

    Cited by:

    1. Florian LALANNE & Irena PERESA & Sophie RIVAUD, 2019. "Portfolio investments and fragility in emerging economies: detection tools [Investissements de portefeuille et fragilisation des pays émergents : des outils de détection]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 226.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2022. "A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

  10. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 662-679, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Clémence Berson & Louis de Charsonville & Pavel Diev & Violaine Faubert & Laurent Ferrara & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Yannick Kalantzis & Antoine Lalliard & Julien Matheron & Matteo Mogliani, 2018. "Does the Phillips curve still exist?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 56, february.

    Cited by:

    1. Florio, Anna & Siena, Daniele & Zago, Riccardo, 2025. "Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03374355, HAL.
    3. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Phillips in A Revolution: Unemployment and Prices in Early 21st Century Egypt," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03948605, HAL.
    4. Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago, 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    5. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.

  13. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2017. "Forecasting euro area recessions by combining financial information," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 78-94.

    Cited by:

    1. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.

  16. Barhoumi, Karim & Darné, Olivier & Ferrara, Laurent, 2016. "A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 111-115.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Ferrara, Laurent & Marsilli, Clément & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 44-50.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 73-107.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2013. "Evaluation of Regime Switching Models for Real‐Time Business Cycle Analysis of the Euro Area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 577-586, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Testing the Number of Factors: An Empirical Assessment for a Forecasting Purpose," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 64-79, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Laurent Ferrara & Cl�ment Marsilli, 2013. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 233-237, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.

    Cited by:

    1. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    2. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    3. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Harri Pönkä & Markku Stenborg, 2020. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 81-99, Spring.
    5. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    7. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.

  28. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "Une revue de la littérature des modèles à facteurs dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 199(1), pages 51-77.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2012. "Monthly Gdp Forecasting Using Bridge Models: Application For The French Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 53-70, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, September.
    3. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    4. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Igor Pospelov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2015. "Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP," HSE Working papers WP BRP 111/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach," Economics working papers 2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2748-2781.
    7. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    8. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    10. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Sónia Cabral & Cláudia Duarte, 2016. "Nowcasting Portuguese tourism exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
    13. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Doll, Jens & Rosenthal, Beatrice & Volkenand, Jonas & Hamella, Sandra, 2017. "Nowcasting des deutschen BIP," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 59, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    15. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    17. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    18. Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
    19. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Where is Kenya being headed to? Empirical evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    21. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is South Africa the South Africa we all desire? Insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92441, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  30. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.

    Cited by:

    1. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

  34. Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 703-712.

    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Working Papers 10-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Jean-François Verne, 2016. "Instabilités politiques, guerre et croissance économique : le cas du Liban et des pays du Moyen-Orient," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 126(6), pages 1077-1103.
    4. L. Ferrara., 2011. "Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 24, pages 135-144, Winter.
    5. Jean-François VERNE, 2011. "An econometric analysis of the output gap fluctuations: The case of Lebanon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1530-1547.
    6. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2012. "Economic Cycles: A Synthesis," Working Papers 12-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Jean-François Verne, 2021. "Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 71-88, September.
    8. Awoutcha Tchieuzing, Romuald Fernand & Fotsing Waffo, Florent Ulrich, 2023. "intégration économique et convergence des cycles : une analyse entre le Cameroun et le Nigéria [Economic Integration and cycle convergence: an analysis between Cameroon and Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 116791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    10. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 1801, Policy Center for the New South.

  35. Ferrara, L., 2008. "The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 49-61, Autumn.

    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
    2. Stéphane GOUTTE & Benteng Zou, 2011. "Foreign exchange rates under Markov Regime switching model," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-16, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.

  36. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    3. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    4. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    5. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    6. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Wavelets for Business Cycle Analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2013.
    7. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027422, HAL.
    9. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Post-Print halshs-00803457, HAL.
    10. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Interconnections between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts using a Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Mode," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-111/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Christian R. Proaño & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan," IMK Working Paper 188-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle," Munich Reprints in Economics 84736, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    16. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    17. Jamel Gatfaoui & Eric Girardin, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Post-Print hal-01456105, HAL.
    18. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    19. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
    20. Jürgen Bierbaumer & Werner Hölzl, 2015. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence for Austria Using Survey Data," WIFO Working Papers 504, WIFO.
    21. Ben L. Kyer & Gary E. Maggs, 2019. "Some International Evidence on Double-Dip Recession," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 347-362, August.
    22. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    23. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    24. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    25. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
    26. Laurent Ferrara & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
    27. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, September.
    28. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    29. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    30. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    31. Silvia Palasca & Elisabeta Jaba, 2014. "Leading and Lagging Indicators Of the Economic Crisis," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(3), pages 31-47, September.
    32. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    33. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    34. Gang Chu & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen & Yongjie Zhang, 2021. "Stock Crashes and Jumps Reactions to Information Demand and Supply: An Intraday Analysis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 397-427, September.
    35. Chu, Gang & Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2021. "An analysis of impact of cancellation activity on market quality: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    36. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    37. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    38. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Vigna, 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

  37. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-10.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Laurent Ferrara, 2008. "L’apport des indicateurs de retournement cyclique à l’analyse conjoncturelle," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 171, pages 43-51.

    Cited by:

    1. Bationo, Rakissiwinde & Hounkpodote, Hilaire, 2009. "Estimation des changements des cours du café et du cacao: Filtre de Kalman, filtre de Hodrick-Prescott et modélisation à partir de processus markovien [Estimated Changes in Prices of Coffee and Coc," MPRA Paper 26980, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    2. Jean-François Verne, 2021. "Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 71-88, September.

  39. Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 115-120.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2012. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Working Papers hal-04141077, HAL.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00283710, HAL.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00277379, HAL.
    5. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Post-Print halshs-00275769, HAL.

  40. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Laurent Ferrara & Alain Henriot, 2004. "La localisation des entreprises industrielles : comment apprecier l'attractivite des territoires ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 99, pages 91-111.

    Cited by:

    1. Keramidas Olivier & Ekaterina Le Pennec & Sarah Serval, 2016. "Caractériser l'attractivité d'un territoire, une approche par les ressources : Le cas de 5 EMN européennes nouvellement implantées dans la région de Kalouga en Russie," Post-Print hal-01615457, HAL.
    2. Baccouche, Rafik & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hatem, M’Henni & Mouley, Sami, 2008. "Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc [Dynamics of investment," MPRA Paper 38148, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  42. Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara, 2004. "Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 193-225.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    2. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Post-Print halshs-00803457, HAL.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    5. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    6. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    7. Sergey Smirnov & Nikolay Kondrashov & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692230, HAL.
    8. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    9. Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
    10. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
    12. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.
    13. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    14. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Domenico Sartore, 2007. "Bayesian Inference on Dynamic Models with Latent Factors," Working Papers 2007_34, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Fathi Elachhab, 2009. "Décrire le cycle économique en Tunisie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 75-92.
    16. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.
    17. Florian Misch & Martin Rey, 2022. "The case for a loan-based euro area stability fund," Discussion Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 May 2022.
    18. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    19. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2012. "Constructing a real-time coincident recession index: an application to the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2012-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Marco Gallegati & Meghnad Desai, 2024. "Stagflation and inflationary regimes: Long cycles in historical perspective," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 709-737, December.
    22. Nguena, Christian-Lambert & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2020. "On Recessive and Expansionary Impact of Financial Development: Empirical Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 555, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    23. Christian-Lambert Nguena & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "Zu rezessiven und expansiven Auswirkungen der Finanzentwicklung: empirische Beweise [On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence]," Post-Print hal-04228903, HAL.
    24. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Imed Medhioub, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization: A Mediterranean Comparison," Working Papers 527, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    26. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    27. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    28. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.
    29. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    30. Christian-Lambert Nguena, Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(1), pages 97-130, June.
    31. Awoutcha Tchieuzing, Romuald Fernand & Fotsing Waffo, Florent Ulrich, 2023. "intégration économique et convergence des cycles : une analyse entre le Cameroun et le Nigéria [Economic Integration and cycle convergence: an analysis between Cameroon and Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 116791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    33. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
    34. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

  43. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Torben Klarl, 2019. "The response of CO2 emissions to the business cycle: New evidence for the U.S," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 1902, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    3. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    4. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    5. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    6. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    7. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Selim KAYHAN & Muhsin KAR & Ahmet ŞAHBAZ, 2015. "Is CPI a suitable tool for inflation targeting? A critical view," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 21-38, Autumn.
    9. Christian R. Proaño & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan," IMK Working Paper 188-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    11. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle," Munich Reprints in Economics 84736, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402.
    13. Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    14. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L volution des Cr dits l habitat en France : une grille d analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
    15. Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    17. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2759, CESifo.
    19. Shirazi, Masoud, 2022. "Assessing energy trilemma-related policies: The world's large energy user evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    20. Fayuan Wang & Rong Wang & Zhili He, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of “Double Cycle” and Industrial Upgrading on Sustainable High-Quality Economic Development: Application of Spatial and Mediation Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    21. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "The business cycle in a financially deregulated context: Theory and evidence," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287.
    22. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    23. Anastasios G. Malliaris & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2011. "Dividends, Momentum, and Macroeconomic Variables as Determinants of the US Equity Premium Across Economic Regimes," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, April.
    24. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    25. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    27. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00185372, HAL.
    28. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l conomie fran aise," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    29. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, September.
    30. Dammak, Wael & Boutouria, Nahla & Ben Hamad, Salah & de Peretti, Christian, 2023. "Investor behavior in the currency option market during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    31. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    32. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Imed Medhioub, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization: A Mediterranean Comparison," Working Papers 527, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    34. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    35. Muhsin Kar & Tayfur Bayat & Selim Kayhan, 2016. "Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, July.
    36. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    37. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372, HAL.
    39. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, September.

  44. Ferrara, Laurent & Guegan, Dominique, 2001. "Forecasting with k-Factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 581-601, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

Books

  1. Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), 2018. "International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, Springer, number 978-3-319-79075-6, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Staff Reports 819, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Nino Buliskeria & Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Uncertain Trends in Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers IES 2024/1, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2021. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2021-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Wenbo Jia & Hao Jiang & Yiqing Lyv & Stavros Sindakis, 2025. "Uncertainty’s Effect on China’s Knowledge-Based Economy: Transformation Beyond Trade," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 4684-4725, March.
    5. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    6. Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Sophie Haincourt, 2018. "The Nature of the Shock Matters: NiGEM Estimations of the Macroeconomic Effects of Recent Dollar and Euro Fluctuations," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244(1), pages 30-38, May.
    8. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2018. "How Important are Global Factors for Understanding the Dynamics of International Capital Flows?," Working Papers in Economics 2018-2, University of Salzburg.
    9. Jaime Marquez, 2023. "Stylized Facts of the FOMC’s Longer-Run Forecasts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    11. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.

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