Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc
[Dynamics of investments, changing industry and convertibility capital account: impacts of the measures of liberalization and compared experiences Tunisia – Morocco]
Morocco and Tunisia are performing in term of economic growth better than the average economic growth of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and middle-income countries. Tremendous efforts in terms of reforms and restructuring of the economy have been deployed in the early 80s. The outcomes of theses efforts start to make their fruit: limited inflation, controlled public deficits, and cautious exchange rate policy. In brief, the macroeconomic environment has been substantially improved. Both countries are also traditions of well anchored opening, in particular towards the old continent, as evidenced by their opening rates. This openness has increased with the signing of a multitude of partnership agreements of which the most important mattering is the one which concerns the free trade area with the EU on the horizon 2010-1012. These advances are important, but they must not ignore the inherent obstacles to growth and development of both countries. Without being comprehensive, external debts remain a source concern, especially in the case of Tunisia. Similarly, the quality of human resources, especially in terms of middle managers, is lacking. The policies of R & D and innovation are still in their infant stage. At least, many similarities exist between the two countries, but it should be noted that Morocco and Tunisia are not on the same growth path. Thus, wealth per capita in Tunisia is twice Morocco one. The aim of this study is to identify the strengths on which Morocco and Tunisia may rely to build their growth on solid and sustainable growth. We have identified two. One is based on a change management more flexible than current practice the two countries. The second concerns the effects of FDI on productivity. In a third time, we try to link the two leverage factors; in order to determine the impact of exchange rate policies on flows of FDI (and productivity). The originality of our approach lies to two levels: Concerning the relationship FDI - exchange rate policy, we propose a misalignment estimate, which is defined as the deviation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium value. Unlike volatility, the distortion of the real exchange rate can have a much greater impact on the economies of small countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Indeed, steady deviations from the real exchange rate with regard to its trend of balance modify the internal relative prices and lead important costs of adjustment. These distortions can create at least four important phenomena of imbalance Indeed, continuous deviations of real exchange rate from its equilibrium modify the relative internal prices and induce important adjustment costs. These distortions may lead at least to four important phenomena of imbalance: i) external imbalance leading to a crisis of exchange, ii) an effect of deindustrialization followed by weak growth over a long period, iii) inflationary pressures and iv) protectionist pressures that tend to persist. The misalignment will be put in relations with the FDI flows in both countries. As for the methodological and in order to capture the effects of FDI on productivity, we estimate a production function using the approach proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996). The latter corrects the simultaneity bias due to the correlation between unobservable shocks of productivity and production factors. Finally, we propose recommendations with sector profiling and refocused specializations of the two countries.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004.
"Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 2.
- Torsten M Sloek & Michael W Klein & Luca A Ricci & Hali J Edison, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance; Survey and Synthesis," IMF Working Papers 02/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Ricci & Torsten Sloek, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 9100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. D. A. MacDougall, 1960. "THE BENEFITS and COSTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROM ABROAD: A THEORETICAL APPROACH," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 13-35, 03.
- Jamal Bouoiyour & Velayoudom Marimoutou & Serge Rey, 2004. "Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 81-104.
- De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000.
"Controls on capital inflows: do they work?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
- Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2004. "Capital-market Liberalization, Globalization, and the IMF," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 57-71, Spring.
- Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
- Jamal bouoiyour & Al Akhawayn, 2005. "Labour Productivity, Technological Gap and Spillovers Evidence from Moroccan Manufacturing Industries," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 1-17.
- Henisz, Witold J, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Multinational Investment," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 334-64, October.
- Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005.
"Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?,"
Oxford Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
- Manuel R. AGOSIN & Ricardo MAYER, 2000. "Foreign Investment In Developing Countries, Does It Crowd In Domestic Investment?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 146, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
- Ari Kokko, 1996. "Productivity spillovers from competition between local firms and foreign affiliates," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 517-530.
- Laurent Ferrara & Alain Henriot, 2004. "La localisation des entreprises industrielles : comment apprecier l'attractivite des territoires ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 99, pages 91-111.
- Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2001. "Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2111-2125, December.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal & REY, Serge, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco,"
38643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jamal Bouoiyour & Serge Rey, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 302-334.
- Caves, Richard E, 1974. "Multinational Firms, Competition, and Productivity in Host-Country Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(162), pages 176-93, May.
- James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 1997.
"Foreign Direct Investment as a Catalyst for Industrial Development,"
NBER Working Papers
6241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 335-356, February.
- Louis Lévy-Garboua, 1994. "Formation sur le tas et rendements de l'expérience : un modèle de diffusion du savoir," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 79-88.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995.
"Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ernesto H. Stein & Christian Daude, 2003.
"Regional Integration and the Location of FDI,"
Research Department Publications
4343, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- James R. Markusen, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-189, Spring.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hanchane, Said, 2008.
"Formation professionnelle et croissance économique Quelles interactions dans les cas du Maroc et la Tunisie ?
[Professional training and economic growth: What interactions in Morocco and Tunisia?]," MPRA Paper 38222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001.
"When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?,"
NBER Working Papers
8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arteta, Carlos & Eichengreen, Barry & Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More Than it Hurts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Steven Globerman, 1979. "Foreign Direct Investment and `Spillover' Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 42-56, February.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal & Emonnot, Claude & Rey, Serge, 2005.
"Régimes de change intermédiaires dans les économies émergentes: le cas du Maroc
[Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies: The Case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 30215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Smith, Alasdair, 1987. "Strategic investment, multinational corporations and trade policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 89-96.
- Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
- Buckley, Peter J & Casson, Mark, 1981. "The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 75-87, March.
- Jean-Louis Mucchielli, 1991. "Alliances stratégiques et firmes multinationales : une nouvelle théorie pour de nouvelles formes de multinationalisation," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 55(1), pages 118-134.
- repec:pra:mprapa:37325 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jamal Bouoiyour & Audrey Dumas & Saïd Hanchane, 2008.
"Qualité de la formation professionnelle initiale au Maroc et impact des actions de formation continue sur les performances des entreprises marocaines,"
- Bouoiyour, Jamal & Dumas, Audrey & Hanchane, Said, 2008.
"Qualité de la formation professionnelle initiale au Maroc et impact des actions de formation continue sur les performances des entreprises marocaines
[Quality of initial vocational training in Moro," MPRA Paper 38223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal & Dumas, Audrey & Hanchane, Said, 2008. "Qualité de la formation professionnelle initiale au Maroc et impact des actions de formation continue sur les performances des entreprises marocaines
- Kokko, Ari, 1994. "Technology, market characteristics, and spillovers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 279-293, April.
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
- Jamal Bouoiyour & Hicham Hanchane & El Mouhoub Mouhoud, 2009. "Investissements directs étrangers et productivité. Quelles interactions dans le cas des pays du Moyen Orient et d'Afrique du Nord ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(1), pages 109-131.
- Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2007. "The determining factors of foreign direct investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 31457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John H Dunning, 1988. "The Eclectic Paradigm of International Production: A Restatement and Some Possible Extensions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.