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Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco

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  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • REY, Serge

Abstract

We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (Europe of the 15), over the period 1960-2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise of the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments affect also the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports from, to a raise of Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on the direct investments (FDI) in favor of Morocco.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & REY, Serge, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco," MPRA Paper 38643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
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    5. Corden, W Max, 1993. "Exchange Rate Policies for Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 198-207, January.
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    11. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Barkoulas, John T., 2001. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 565-576, October.
    13. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2015. "L’intégration financière internationale : Théories, évidences, et leçons des expériences récentes [International financial integration: Theory, evidence and lessons from recent experiences]," Research papers & Policy papers 1508, OCP Policy Center.
    3. Claudio Bravo-Ortega, 2009. "Do Multilateral Trade Linkages Explain Bilateral Real Exchange Rate Volatility?," Working Papers wp304, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    4. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and trade performance in Morocco and Tunisia: what have we learned so far?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 244-274, November.
    6. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change
      [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]
      ," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kawtar Dkhissi, 2014. "Impact des accords de libre échange sur la propension et l'intensité des exportations des entreprises au Maroc," Post-Print hal-01335587, HAL.
    8. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:143-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Brixiova Zuzana & Egert Balazs & Essid Thouraya Hadj Amor, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, April.
    10. bouoiyour, jamal, 2007. "The Determining factors of foreign firect investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Baccouche, Rafik & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hatem, M’Henni & Mouley, Sami, 2008. "Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc
      [Dynamics of investment
      ," MPRA Paper 38148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:pra:mprapa:37325 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2007. "The determining factors of foreign direct investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. niaz ahmad mohd, Naseem & yusop, Zulkornain & masron, Tajul ariffin, 2009. "How did the Malaysian real exchange rate misalign during the 1997 Asian crisis?," MPRA Paper 44922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Zuzana Brixiova & Balázs Égert & Thouraya Hadj Amor Essid, 2013. "Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Working Paper Series 991, African Development Bank.
    16. bouoiyour, jamal, 2003. "Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or Long-run Causality?," MPRA Paper 28859, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    REER; NATRXE; FDI; Mesalignment Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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