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Do Multilateral Trade Linkages Explain Bilateral Real Exchange Rate Volatility?

  • Claudio Bravo-Ortega

This paper investigates the impact of multilateral trade linkages on bilateral real exchange rate volatility by examining a particular channel —the extent of the effects of differences on import intensities (GDP’s share of imports of a given product and origin) between trade partners— of long-run real exchange rate volatility. I exploit a large panel of cross-country data over the years 1970–97 and construct a micro-founded index to capture this effect. In the estimations I address carefully endogeneity issues by testing not just exogeneity but also the presence of weak instruments. As robustness check and under the latter I estimate LIML and Fuller(1) regressions to ensure unbiased coefficients. Results strongly support the hypothesis that a pair of countries with a larger difference in the import intensities from the rest of the world faces a larger bilateral real exchange rate volatility. This result turns to be robust to the inclusion of bilateral trade a commonly argued moderator of volatility and other controls. These empirical findings are consistent with recent international trade models that highlight multi-country trade linkages.

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File URL: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/c0c73b0ee2bd213fb1d5195755dc6d94e1d5b805.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number wp377.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp377
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kei-Mu Yi & Ayhan Kose, 2005. "Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?," IMF Working Papers 05/204, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Berthelon, Matias & Freund, Caroline, 2008. "On the conservation of distance in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 310-320, July.
  5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & REY, Serge, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco," MPRA Paper 38643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, September.
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
  8. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Fitzgerald, Doireann, 2008. "Can trade costs explain why exchange rate volatility does not feed into consumer prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 606-628, April.
  10. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU : exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Research Discussion Papers 15/2004, Bank of Finland.
  12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  13. Joseph P. Byrne & Julia Darby & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "US Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Real Sectoral Bilateral Analysis," Working Papers 2006_9, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  14. Claudio Bravo-Ortega & Julian di Giovanni, 2006. "Remoteness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 6.
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