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Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique

  • Jamal Bouoiyour
  • Velayoudom Marimoutou
  • Serge Rey

Une estimation non parametrique du taux de change reel effectif d'equilibre de long terme du dirham vis-a-vis de l'Union europeenne à Quinze a ete realisee sur la periode 1967-2000 (donnees trimestrielles), en retenant les fondamentaux suivants : les termes de l'echange externes ; le taux d'ouverture de l'economie ; le ratio des depenses publiques (en pourcentage du PIB) et le ratio entre la balance commerciale et le PIB. Ce travail a permis de mettre en evidence des phases distinctes de sur/sous-evaluation du dirham. Ces mesalignements sont globalement coherents avec ce que peuvent donner d'autres etudes, avec des modeles theoriques differents. Par ailleurs, l'utilisation des methodes non parametriques et non lineaires permet de mieux apprecier l'evaluation du taux de change effectif reel en fonction des fondamentaux de l'economie.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 97 ()
Pages: 81-104

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-1tc
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