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Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal Bouoiyour
  • Velayoudom Marimoutou
  • Serge Rey

Abstract

Une estimation non parametrique du taux de change reel effectif d'equilibre de long terme du dirham vis-a-vis de l'Union europeenne à Quinze a ete realisee sur la periode 1967-2000 (donnees trimestrielles), en retenant les fondamentaux suivants : les termes de l'echange externes ; le taux d'ouverture de l'economie ; le ratio des depenses publiques (en pourcentage du PIB) et le ratio entre la balance commerciale et le PIB. Ce travail a permis de mettre en evidence des phases distinctes de sur/sous-evaluation du dirham. Ces mesalignements sont globalement coherents avec ce que peuvent donner d'autres etudes, avec des modeles theoriques differents. Par ailleurs, l'utilisation des methodes non parametriques et non lineaires permet de mieux apprecier l'evaluation du taux de change effectif reel en fonction des fondamentaux de l'economie.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Bouoiyour & Velayoudom Marimoutou & Serge Rey, 2004. "Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 81-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-1tc
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev97/rev97c.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Nader NEFZI & Joël OUDINET & Mouez SOUSSI, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 87-114.
    2. Ferdinand Owoundi, 2017. "Investigating the link between the exchange rate regime and underlying misalignments," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 880-888.
    3. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro [How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro]," MPRA Paper 32077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 2005. "Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc [Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]," MPRA Paper 49503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. bouoiyour, jamal, 2006. "Productivité du travail, capital humain et écart technologique dans les industries manufacturières marocaines [Labor productivity, human capital and technology gap in manufacturing Moroccan]," MPRA Paper 37035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2005. "Partenariat Euro-marocain et dynamique des investissements directs étrangers [Euro-Moroccan partnership and dynamic investment foreign direct]," MPRA Paper 45992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. BIKAI, J. Landry & OWOUNDI F., Ferdinand, 2016. "Does the choice of an exchange rate regime limits exchange rate misalignments? The example of sub-Saharan African countries," MPRA Paper 89110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bouoiyour, jamal & Kuikeu, Oscar, 2007. "Pertinence de la dévaluation du Franc CFA de janvier 1994 : Une évaluation par le taux de change réel d’équilibre. Cas de l’économie camerounaise [Relevance of the CFA France devaluation in January," MPRA Paper 31357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. El Bouhadi, A. & Elkhider, Abdelkader & Kchirid, El Mustapha & Idriss, El Abbassi, 2008. "LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique [THE Exchange Rate Determinants in Morocco: An Empirical Investigation]," MPRA Paper 24115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Belhadj, Aam, 2009. "Heterogeneity of the Maghreb: the results of optimized monetary rules," MPRA Paper 40374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2012. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," Working papers of CATT hal-01885155, HAL.
    12. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    13. Mohamed BOUZAHZAH & Radouane BACHAR, 2014. "Exchange Rate Policy in Morocco and Persistence of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 122-134.
    14. Baccouche, Rafik & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hatem, M’Henni & Mouley, Sami, 2008. "Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc [Dynamics of investment," MPRA Paper 38148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rabhi, Ayoub, 2020. "Taux de change d’équilibre et compétitivité au Maroc : Estimation par le Modèle ARDL de cointégration [Equilibrium exchange rate and competitiveness in Morocco: Estimation by ARDL Cointegration Mod," MPRA Paper 98294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taux de change reel effectif d'equilibre; fondamentaux de l'economie; mesalignements; estimation non parametrique; estimation non lineaire; taux de change; politique de change; modeles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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