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Costs and consequences of a trade war: a structural analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Berthou
  • Caroline Jardet
  • Daniele Siena
  • Urszula Szczerbowicz

Abstract

Recent US policies (and announcements) and consequent retaliations have increased the threat of a global trade war. This Rue de la Banque provides an assessment of the global macroeconomic short-term implications of higher trade tariffs for the global economy using the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global integrated monetary and fiscal model (GIMF). This quantification takes into account the direct (increase in trade tariffs) and indirect (fall in productivity, rise in financing costs and increase in uncertainty) channels of a global trade war. A global and generalised 10 percentage points (pp) increase in tariffs could reduce the level of global gross domestic product (GDP) by almost 2.0% on impact, and up to 3.0% after two years.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Berthou & Caroline Jardet & Daniele Siena & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Costs and consequences of a trade war: a structural analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 72, december.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2018:72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Tariff Volatility and Tariff Policy in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 223302, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Frederik Kurcz & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1138-1159, September.
    3. Marlene Amstad & Leonardo Gambacorta & Chao He & Dora Xia, 2021. "Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media," BIS Working Papers 917, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry, 2020. "Why hasn’t the impact of the trade war been greater?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 820-828.

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