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Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro

Author

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  • Laurent Ferrara

Abstract

Recent economic events have pointed out that economic cycles are still alive. In this paper, we underline the interest in short-term economic analysis of a dating chronology for the cycles, we propose a typology a various cycles usually considered in short-term empirical analyses, last we present some recent results on turning points chronologies in the Euro area. Classifications JEL : C22, C52, E32.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 703-712.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_603_0703
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    2. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
    3. Jean-François Verne, 2016. "Instabilités politiques, guerre et croissance économique : le cas du Liban et des pays du Moyen-Orient," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 126(6), pages 1077-1103.
    4. L. Ferrara., 2011. "Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 24, pages 135-144, Winter.
    5. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1824, Policy Center for the New South.
    6. Jean-François VERNE, 2011. "An econometric analysis of the output gap fluctuations: The case of Lebanon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1530-1547.
    7. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2012. "Economic Cycles: A Synthesis," Working Papers 12-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Jean-François Verne, 2021. "Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 71-88, September.
    9. Awoutcha Tchieuzing, Romuald Fernand & Fotsing Waffo, Florent Ulrich, 2023. "intégration économique et convergence des cycles : une analyse entre le Cameroun et le Nigéria [Economic Integration and cycle convergence: an analysis between Cameroon and Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 116791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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