IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2016178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding the weakness in global trade - What is the new normal?

Author

Listed:
  • Cabrillac, Bruno
  • Al-Haschimi, Alexander
  • Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana
  • Borin, Alessandro
  • Bussière, Matthieu
  • Cezar, Raphael
  • Derviz, Alexis
  • Dimitropoulou, Dimitra
  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Gächter, Martin
  • Gaulier, Guillaume
  • Hukkinen, Juhana
  • Keeney, Mary
  • Lodge, David
  • Mancini, Michele
  • Marsilli, Clement
  • Martínez-Martin, Jaime
  • Mroczek, Wojciech
  • Muck, Jakub
  • Pavlova, Elena
  • Rariga, Judit
  • Šalaševičius, Juozas
  • Santabárbara, Daniel
  • Skudelny, Frauke
  • Slopek, Ulf
  • Steingress, Walter
  • Tuckett, Alex
  • Van Horen, Neeltje
  • van Limbergen, Duncan
  • Walravens, Laurent
  • Wörz, Julia

Abstract

Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15

Suggested Citation

  • Cabrillac, Bruno & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Borin, Alessandro & Bussière, Matthieu & Cezar, Raphael & Derviz, Alexis & Dimitropoulou, Dimitra & Ferrara, Laurent & Gächter, 2016. "Understanding the weakness in global trade - What is the new normal?," Occasional Paper Series 178, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop178.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    3. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
    4. Matthieu Bussière & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?," Occasional Paper Series 80, European Central Bank.
    5. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    6. Vinod K. Aggarwal & Simon J. Evenett, 2012. "Industrial policy choice during the crisis era," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 261-283, SUMMER.
    7. Thorsten Beck, 2003. "Financial Dependence and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 296-316, May.
    8. Hale, Galina & Candelaria, Christopher & Caballero, Julian & Borisov, Sergey, 2013. "Bank Linkages and International Trade," Working Paper Series 2013-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 11 Feb 2016.
    9. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Hur, Jung & Raj, Manoj & Riyanto, Yohanes E., 2006. "Finance and trade: A cross-country empirical analysis on the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on international trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1728-1741, October.
    11. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    12. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.
    13. Matias Braun & Claudio Raddatz, 2008. "The Politics of Financial Development: Evidence from Trade Liberalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1469-1508, June.
    14. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    15. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    16. Kletzer, Kenneth & Bardhan, Pranab, 1987. "Credit markets and patterns of international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 57-70, October.
    17. Julia Woerz & Olga Pindyuk, 2008. "Trade in Services: Note on the Measurement and Quality of Data Sources," FIW Research Reports series I-001, FIW.
    18. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    19. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    20. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
    21. Marc Auboin, 2015. "Improving the availability of trade finance in low-income countries: an assessment of remaining gaps," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(3-4), pages 379-395.
    22. Breitenlechner, Max & Gächter, Martin & Sindermann, Friedrich, 2015. "The finance–growth nexus in crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 31-33.
    23. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2007. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 796-834, December.
    24. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    25. Grubert, Harry & Mutti, John, 1991. "Taxes, Tariffs and Transfer Pricing in Multinational Corporate Decision Making," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 285-293, May.
    26. Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2015. "Follow the value added: bilateral gross export accounting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1026, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza & Jean Louis Arcand, 2015. "Too Much Finance or Statistical Illusion: A Comment," IHEID Working Papers 12-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    28. Beck, Roland & Georgiadis, Georgios & Straub, Roland, 2014. "The finance and growth nexus revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 382-385.
    29. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Ang, B. W. & Liu, F. L. & Chew, E. P., 2003. "Perfect decomposition techniques in energy and environmental analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1561-1566, November.
    31. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2005. "Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-144, January.
    32. G. Gaulier & W. Steingress & S. Zignago, 2016. "The role of China in the trade slowdown," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 30, september.
    33. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb, 2016. "Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1050-1080, November.
    34. Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 275, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    35. Arvind Subramanian & Martin Kessler, 2013. "The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future," Working Paper Series WP13-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    36. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    37. Beck, Thorsten, 2002. "Financial development and international trade: Is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 107-131, June.
    38. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    39. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    40. David Hummels & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2006. "Are Matched Partner Trade Statistics a Usable Measure of Transportation Costs?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-86, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecolet:v:158:y:2017:i:c:p:21-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Boileau, A. & Chavy-Martin, A.-C., 2017. "Les délais de paiement sont stables en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 25-38.
    3. A. Boileau & L. Carlino & A. S. Lafon, 2016. "In the first half of 2016, the main French groups increased their profitability," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 40-51, Winter.
    4. Rougès, D. & Strauss-Kahn, M.-O., 2017. "Sondage 2016 sur les Français et l’économie : comportements, préoccupations et attentes," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 15-23.
    5. Bureau, B. & Bürker, M. & Libert, T., 2017. "La situation des entreprises en France en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 39-55.
    6. R. Cezar, 2016. "France’s pharmaceutical industry in global value chains," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 52-63, Winter.
    7. Bureau, B. & Bürker, M. & Libert, T., 2017. "La situation des entreprises en France en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 39-55.
    8. Humbertclaude, S. & Monteil, F., 2017. "Le patrimoine économique national en 2015 : un modeste rebond," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 5-14.
    9. Rougès, D. & Strauss-Kahn, M.-O., 2017. "Sondage 2016 sur les Français et l’économie : comportements, préoccupations et attentes," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 15-23.
    10. E. Buttin, 2016. "Green bonds: a solution for financing the energy transition or a simple buzzword?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 20-27, Winter.
    11. C. Mazet-Sonilhac & J.-S. Mésonnier, 2016. "The cost of equity for large non-financial companies in the euro area: an estimation over the last decade," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 28-39, Winter.
    12. Humbertclaude, S. & Monteil, F., 2017. "Le patrimoine économique national en 2015 : un modeste rebond," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 5-14.
    13. Cezar, R., 2017. "L’industrie pharmaceutique française dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 57-69.
    14. Boileau, A. & Chavy-Martin, A.-C., 2017. "Les délais de paiement sont stables en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 25-38.
    15. Cezar, R., 2017. "La situation des entreprises en France en 2015," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 209, pages 57-69.
    16. B. Cabrillac & L. Gauvin & J.-L. Gossé, 2016. "GDP-indexed bonds: what are the benefits for issuing countries, investors and international financial stability?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 44, pages 6-19, Winter.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    frictions in global trade; global trade slowdown; global value chains; protectionism; trade elasticity;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.