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Maximo Camacho

Citations

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Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.

    Mentioned in:

    1. This is what the leading indicators lead (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2019. "A new approach to dating the reference cycle," Working Papers 1914, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2024. "Capital flow dynamics and the synchronization of financial cycles and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.

  2. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Manzoor Ahmad & Zahoor Ul Haq & Javed Iqbal & Shehzad Khan, 2023. "Dating the Business Cycles: Research and Development (R&D) Expenditures and New Knowledge Creation in OECD Economies over the Business Cycles," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 3929-3973, December.
    2. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    3. Alejandro Almeida & Aida Galiano & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan M. Martín, 2020. "Regional unemployment and cyclical sensitivity in Spain," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199, August.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  3. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce, 2016. "Forecasting travelers in Spain with Google queries," Working Papers 16/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    2. Diego Bodas & Juan R. García López & Tomasa Rodrigo López & Pep Ruiz de Aguirre & Camilo A. Ulloa & Juan Murillo Arias & Juan de Dios Romero Palop & Heribert Valero Lapaz & Matías J. Pacce, 2019. "Measuring retail trade using card transactional data," Working Papers 1921, Banco de España.
    3. Katerina Volchek & Anyu Liu & Haiyan Song & Dimitrios Buhalis, 2019. "Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 425-447, May.
    4. Joaquín Artés & Ana Melissa Botello Mainieri & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2019. "Tax reforms and Google searches: the case of Spanish VAT reforms during the great recession," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-336, November.

  4. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1506, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 917-945, August.
    2. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    3. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    4. Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2018. "Short term forecasts of economic activity: are fortnightly factors useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1177, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "Governmentally amplified output volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 469-478.
    6. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    7. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    8. Basistha, Arabinda, 2025. "A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1509, Banco de España.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara & Marco E. Terrones, 2020. "Global Recessions," Working Papers 162, Peruvian Economic Association.
    11. Zhang, Wei & He, Jie & Ge, Chanyuan & Xue, Rui, 2022. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring using mixed frequency data: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Baumann, Ursel & Gomez-Salvador, Ramon & Seitz, Franz, 2019. "Detecting turning points in global economic activity," Working Paper Series 2310, European Central Bank.

  5. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "Country shocks, monetary policy expectations and ECB decisions. A dynamic non-linear approach," Working Papers 1523, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    2. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.

  6. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    3. Lirios Alos-Simo & Antonio J. Verdu-Jover & Jose M. Gomez-Gras, 2020. "Knowledge Transfer in Sustainable Contexts: A Comparative Analysis of Periods of Financial Recession and Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    4. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    5. Javed IQBAL, 2024. "Asymmetric Effects Of Local And Global Business Cycle Variations On The Sectoral Industrial Production In Singapore," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 75-96, April.
    6. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2023. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 165-187, June.
    7. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Hauzenberger, Niko & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo, 2026. "Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 657-672.
    8. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China's time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    10. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    11. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    12. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    13. Paflioti, Persa & Vitsounis, Thomas K. & Teye, Collins & Bell, Michael G.H. & Tsamourgelis, Ioannis, 2017. "Box dynamics: A sectoral approach to analyse containerized port throughput interdependencies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 396-413.
    14. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.

  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities," Working Papers 1304, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Fernando Linardi & Luis Vissotto, 2025. "Supply chain transmission of climate-related physical risks," BIS Working Papers 1260, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Dora Aguilasocho-Montoya & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2020. "A Two-Regime Markov-Switching GARCH Active Trading Algorithm for Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar Futures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Frédéric Karamé, 2012. "An Algorithm for Generalized Impulse-Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural VAR," Documents de recherche 12-04, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    4. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2019. "A Test of Using Markov-Switching GARCH Models in Oil and Natural Gas Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 773, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Ameyaw, Emmanuel, 2024. "Business cycles in a cocoa and gold economy: Commodity price shocks do not always matter," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Sebastian Fossati, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    9. Werner Kristjanpoller & Josephine E. Olson & Rodolfo I. Salazar, 2016. "Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Ercio Muñoz S. & Mariel C. Siravegna, 2013. "¿Tiene un Impacto el Precio de las Materias Primas Sobre las Bolsas de América Latina?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 102-118, December.
    11. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-82.
    13. Alarcon Gambarte, Samuel, 2019. "Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica [International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty]," MPRA Paper 97116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & José Álvarez-García & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2024. "An EM/MCMC Markov-Switching GARCH Behavioral Algorithm for Random-Length Lumber Futures Trading," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Alejandro Torres-García & Jaime Montoya-Arbeláez & Laura Wberth-Escobar, 2022. "Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2081-2110, November.
    16. Oscar V. Torre-Torres & Leticia Bollain‑Parra & Amador Durán-Sánchez, 2025. "The use of Markov-Switching GARCH models in a Mexican rice spot price hedging algorithm with CME rice futures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 2253-2283, June.
    17. Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 227-242, January.
    18. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Using Markov-Switching Models in US Stocks Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Black–Litterman Context (Part 1)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, April.
    19. Ftiti, Zied & Kablan, Sandrine & Guesmi, Khaled, 2016. "What can we learn about commodity and credit cycles? Evidence from African commodity-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-324.
    20. Gustavo Henrique Leite Castro & Carlos Roberto Azzoni, 2024. "Importações e Mudanças Estruturais na Indústria Brasileira, 2003-2018: Uma Análise de Decomposição Estrutural," TD NEREUS 12-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    21. Koursaros, Demetris & Michail, Nektarios & Savva, Christos, 2024. "Examining the behaviour of inflation to supply and demand shocks using an MS-VAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    22. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    23. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.

  8. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2013. "Short-term forecasting for empirical economists. A survey of the recently proposed algorithms," Working Papers 1318, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2016. "Nowcasting the Czech Trade Balance," Working Papers 2016/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2014. "Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth," Working Papers 1411, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    6. Carl Bonham & Peter Fuleky & James Jones & Ashley Hirashima, 2015. "Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates," Working Papers 2015-13R, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, revised Jul 2016.
    7. Tóth, Peter, 2017. "Nowcasting Slovak GDP by a Small Dynamic Factor Model," MPRA Paper 77245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    9. Zhiwei Cui & Qideng Luo & Haoyang Ji & Yang Xu & Junyi Shi, 2025. "Research on Reconstructing Regional Business Cycle Analysis System Based on Electricity Big Data—A Case Study in Guangxi Province," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-13, June.
    10. Hirashima, Ashley & Jones, James & Bonham, Carl S. & Fuleky, Peter, 2017. "Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-202.
    11. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    12. Mikel Bedayo & Ángel Estrada & Jesús Saurina, 2018. "Bank capital, lending booms, and busts. Evidence from Spain in the last 150 years," Working Papers 1847, Banco de España.
    13. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    14. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2019. "Nowcasting Using Mixed Frequency Methods: An Application to the Scottish Economy," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 12-45, September.
    15. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Su�rez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodr�guez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad econ�mica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 13610, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Mikosch, Heiner & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.

  9. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Kihwan Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Mixing mixed frequency and diffusion indices in good times and in bad: an assessment based on historical data around the great recession of 2008," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1421-1469, March.
    2. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," MNB Working Papers 2020/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    7. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    8. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2026. "Switching Macroeconomic Growth and Volatility: Evidence from a Mean-Variance Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Danilo Leiva‐León & Gabriel Perez Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2024. "Real‐time weakness of the global economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 813-832, August.
    14. John O’Trakoun, 2022. "Business forecasting during the pandemic," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(3), pages 95-110, July.
    15. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
    16. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Ben L. Kyer & Gary E. Maggs, 2019. "Some International Evidence on Double-Dip Recession," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 347-362, August.

  10. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    2. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    3. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    5. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    6. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    7. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
    9. Tóth, Peter, 2017. "Nowcasting Slovak GDP by a Small Dynamic Factor Model," MPRA Paper 77245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    11. Freddy Garc'ia-Alb'an & Juan Jarr'in, 2025. "Tracking the economy at high frequency," Papers 2507.07450, arXiv.org.
    12. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "On the design of data sets for forecasting with dynamic factor models," Working Paper Series 1893, European Central Bank.
    13. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    14. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Kapetanios, George & Papailias, Fotis & Weale, Martin R., 2015. "An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies," Working Paper Series 1773, European Central Bank.
    16. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    17. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    19. Samuels, Jon D. & Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2017. "Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60.
    20. Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Poncela, Pilar, 2015. "Small versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    21. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    22. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.
    23. Aysun, Uluc & Wright, Cardel, 2024. "A two-step dynamic factor modelling approach for forecasting inflation in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

  11. Maximo Camacho & Marcos Dal Bianco & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1201, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. He, Kaijian & Chen, Yanhui & Tso, Geoffrey K.F., 2018. "Forecasting exchange rate using Variational Mode Decomposition and entropy theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 15-25.
    2. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Forecasting daily electricity prices with monthly macroeconomic variables," Working Paper Series 2250, European Central Bank.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Economics Series 305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2016. "Assessing Euro Crises from a Time Varying International CAPM Approach," Working Paper series 16-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2024. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Forecasting with long maturity forward rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
    7. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
    8. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
    9. Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    10. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
    11. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Jonas E. Arias & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2013. "Inference Based on SVARs Identied with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 1338, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2016. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 27-34.
    13. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2023. "Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "La financiacion de las comunidades autonomas de regimen comun en 2011," Working Papers 1330, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Le Xia, 2013. "China s RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements: What explains the choice of countries?," Working Papers 1318, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    17. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2019. "Is there any theory that explains the SEK?," MPRA Paper 95072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2019.
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    19. Martin McCarthy & Stephen Snudden, 2025. "Forecasts of Period-average Exchange Rates: Insights from Real-time Daily Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2025-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Carlos Medel & Gilmour Camilleri & Hsiang-Ling Hsu & Stefan Kania & Miltiadis Touloumtzoglou, 2016. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-Based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 784, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "La evolucion de la financiacion de las comunidades autonomas de regimen comun, 2002-2011," Working Papers 1332, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    22. Pastorek, Daniel, 2023. "Euro area uncertainty and Euro exchange rate volatility: Exploring the role of transnational economic policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    23. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    24. Claudio Morana, 2016. "The US$/€ exchange rate: Structural modeling and forecasting during the recent financial crises," CeRP Working Papers 155, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    25. Tatiana Alonso & Javier Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Global Financial Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Pensions," Working Papers 1321, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    26. Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Saifeddine Chaibi & Jose Felix Izquierdo & Felix Lores & Ana Rubio & Jaime Zurita, 2013. "Some international trends in the regulation of mortgage markets: Implications for Spain," Working Papers 1317, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    27. Ur Koumba & Calvin Mudzingiri & Jules Mba, 2020. "Does uncertainty predict cryptocurrency returns? A copula-based approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 67-88, January.
    28. Hongcheng Ding & Xuanze Zhao & Ruiting Deng & Shamsul Nahar Abdullah & Deshinta Arrova Dewi, 2024. "EUR-USD Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on Information Fusion with Large Language Models and Deep Learning Methods," Papers 2408.13214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    29. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Papers 2301.10592, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    30. Abbate, Angela & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models," Discussion Papers 19/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Shaghayegh KORDNOORI & Hamidreza MOSTAFAEI & Shirin KORDNOORI, 2015. "Applied SCGM(1,1)c Model and Weighted Markov Chain for Exchange Rate Ratios," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 3(4), pages 12-22, December.
    32. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "Las finanzas autonomicas en boom y en crisis (2003-12)," Working Papers 1316, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    33. Musa, Abdullahi & Salisu, Afees A. & Aliyu, Victoria O. & Mevweroso, Chioma R., 2021. "Analysis of asymmetric response of exchange rate to interest rate differentials: The case of African Big 4," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    34. Javier Alonso & Tatiana Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Tendencias regulatorias financieras globales y retos para las Pensiones y Seguros," Working Papers 1323, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    35. Xiao, Chang & Florescu, Ionut & Zhou, Jinsheng, 2020. "A comparison of pricing models for mineral rights: Copper mine in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    36. Daniel Stavarek & Cynthia Miglietti, 2014. "Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2014-49, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    37. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Kofi Agyarko Ababio & Jules Mba & Ur Koumba & Makgale Molepo, 2018. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Behavior in South Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 262-278, April.

  12. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    2. Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Accurate Subsampling Intervals of Principal Components Factors," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23974, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    4. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    5. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    6. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    7. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1506, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    8. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    9. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    10. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    11. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202151, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    14. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    15. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
    16. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias & Ruining Zhou, 2024. "Constructing a high‐frequency World Economic Gauge using a mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2212-2227, September.
    17. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    21. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Basistha, Arabinda, 2025. "A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    23. Sebastian Fossati, 2017. "Testing for State-Dependent Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2017-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    24. Sebastian Fossati, 2015. "Forecasting US recessions with macro factors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5726-5738, November.
    25. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    26. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    27. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
    28. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2015. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: a MS-DFM approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

  13. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Kihwan Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Mixing mixed frequency and diffusion indices in good times and in bad: an assessment based on historical data around the great recession of 2008," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1421-1469, March.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Andres Romeu & Salvador Ramallo, 2026. "Probabilistic Classification in Business Cycles Identification Based on Generalized ROC," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 3-21, January.
    3. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo & Lovcha, Yuliya, 2012. "Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9191, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    5. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    7. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
    8. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
    9. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1506, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    10. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    12. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
    13. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," MNB Working Papers 2020/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    15. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    16. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    17. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.
    19. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 72.
    20. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    21. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    23. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2023. "Estimation of a dynamic multi-level factor model with possible long-range dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 405-430.
    24. Degras, David & Ting, Chee-Ming & Ombao, Hernando, 2022. "Markov-switching state-space models with applications to neuroimaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    25. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2026. "Switching Macroeconomic Growth and Volatility: Evidence from a Mean-Variance Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    26. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    27. Yanko Hristozov & Daniel Kasabov & Diyana Miteva, 2025. "The Bulgarian Economy – Trends and Signals in the Context of Global Challenges," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1026-1059, Desember.
    28. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    29. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Philipp Wegmüller & Christian Glocker & Valentino Guggia, 2021. "Weekly Economic Activity: Measurement and Informational Content," WIFO Working Papers 627, WIFO.
    32. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    33. Fabian Moodley & Sune Ferreira-Schenk & Kago Matlhaku, 2025. "The Effects of Investor Sentiment on Stock Return Indices Under Changing Market Conditions: Evidence from South Africa," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-24, April.
    34. Danilo Leiva‐León & Gabriel Perez Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2024. "Real‐time weakness of the global economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 813-832, August.
    35. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    36. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
    37. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    38. Marcus Scheiblecker & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Atanas Pekanov, 2018. "Der Beitrag der Finanzmarktinterventionen des Bundes über die HETA Abwicklungsgesellschaft zur Stabilisierung des österreichischen Finanzmarktes," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60979.
    39. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning," Working Paper Series 2494, European Central Bank.
    40. Zhang, Wei & He, Jie & Ge, Chanyuan & Xue, Rui, 2022. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring using mixed frequency data: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    41. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    42. Paolo Andreini & Cosimo Izzo & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "Deep Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 2007.11887, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    43. Agnieszka Pierzak, 2013. "Forecasting inflation in Poland using dynamic factor model," MF Working Papers 17, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    44. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    45. Lopez-Buenache, German, 2019. "The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 221-233.
    46. Pami Dua, 2017. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 209-226, June.
    47. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

  14. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martíinez-Martin, 2012. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Working Papers 1210, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    2. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1506, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    5. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    6. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    7. Eric W. K. See-To & Eric W. T. Ngai, 2018. "Customer reviews for demand distribution and sales nowcasting: a big data approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 415-431, November.
    8. Yi-Ting Chen, 2021. "A mixed-frequency smooth measure for business conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1699-1724, October.
    9. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    10. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    11. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    12. Máximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2015. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 764, Central Bank of Chile.

  15. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    2. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 557-580, December.
    3. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    4. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.
    5. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2012. "Constructing a real-time coincident recession index: an application to the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2012-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Pami Dua, 2017. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 209-226, June.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  16. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    2. Xi, Xian & An, Haizhong, 2018. "Research on energy stock market associated network structure based on financial indicators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1309-1323.
    3. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Igor Pospelov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2015. "Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP," HSE Working papers WP BRP 111/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    5. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    6. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    7. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    9. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    11. Guangbao Guo & Chunjie Wei & Guoqi Qian, 2023. "Sparse online principal component analysis for parameter estimation in factor model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 1095-1116, June.
    12. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.
    13. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "The franc shock and Swiss GDP: How long does it take to start feeling the pain?," KOF Working papers 15-373, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

  17. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2009. "High-growth Recoveries, Inventories and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 0917, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Gadea, María Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2017. "Dissecting US recoveries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 59-63.
    3. Corey J.M. Williams, 2022. "The evolution of inventory dynamics in a post-crisis economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2214-2230.
    4. Frederique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2209-2222.
    5. Sylvain Barthélemy & Marie-Estelle Binet & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2020. "Worldwide Economic Recoveries from Financial Crises Through the Decades," Post-Print hal-02555515, HAL.
    6. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jens R Clausen, 2010. "Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2010/212, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ana gomez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea (Universidad de Zaragoza) & Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Bank of Spain), 2015. "Great Moderation and Great Recession. From plain sailing to stormy seas?," EcoMod2015 8267, EcoMod.

  18. Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal & Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2009. "Are the High-growth Recovery Periods Over?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 772.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    Cited by:

    1. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    2. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    3. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    4. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  19. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Working Papers 0912, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Gonzalo Echavarría M. & Wildo González P, 2011. "Un Modelo de Factores Dinámicos de Pequeña Escala para el Imacec," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 109-118, August.
    3. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Luboš Rùžièka & Peter Tóth, 2011. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583, December.
    4. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    5. Ana Arencibia Pareja & Ana Gómez Loscos & Mercedes de Luis López & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2018. "A short-term forecasting model for the Spanish economy: GDP and its demand components," Occasional Papers 1801, Banco de España.
    6. Piotr Białowolski & Tomasz Kuszewski & Bartosz Witkowski, 2010. "Business Survey Data in Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators with Combined Forecasts," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 4(4), December.
    7. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142.

  20. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    2. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    3. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    4. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    6. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Working Papers 2014/08, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    9. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    10. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo & Lovcha, Yuliya, 2012. "Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9191, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Massimiliano Marcellino & Alberto Musso, 2010. "the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/06, European University Institute.
    12. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    15. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    17. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    19. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2021. "Identifying SteadyState Growth and Inflation in the South African Economy 19602020," Working Papers 11013, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," EcoMod2012 4219, EcoMod.
    21. Miroslav Klucik, 2019. "Tracking the Course of the Economy (Nowcasting of basic macroeconomic indicators of Slovakia)," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2019, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    22. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    23. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    24. Franco, Ray John Gabriel & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    26. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    27. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay, 2013. "Milli Gelir Buyume Tahmini : IYA ve PMI Gostergelerinin Rolu," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1331, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    28. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
    29. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    30. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    31. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
    32. Cecilia Frale, Serena Teobaldo, Marco Cacciotti, Alessandra Caretta, 2013. "A Quarterly Measure Of Potential Output In The New European Fiscal Framework," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 181-197, April-Jun.
    33. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    34. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    35. Marius Cristian Acatrinei, 2020. "Financial stability indicator for non-banking markets," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 9(5), pages 3-9, November.
    36. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    37. Stamer, Vincent, 2024. "Thinking outside the container: A sparse partial least squares approach to forecasting trade flows," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1336-1358.
    38. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    39. I. De Greef & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "The National Bank of Belgium, Research Department’s new business survey indicator," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 31-51, June.
    40. Donato Ceci & Orest Prifti & Andrea Silvestrini, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian GDP growth: a Factor MIDAS approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    42. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2015. "Prediction of Term Structure with Potentially Misspecified Macro-Finance Models near the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 85709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    45. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2021. "Identifying Supply and Demand Shocks in the South African Economy 19602020," Working Papers 11012, South African Reserve Bank.
    46. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
    47. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez-Quirós, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Working Papers 1508, Banco de España.
    48. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    49. Abel Rodríguez Tirado & Marcelo Delajara & Federico Hern�ndez �lvarez, 2016. "Nowcasting Mexico’s Short-Term GDP Growth in Real-Time: A Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2016), pages 167-182.
    50. Alejandro Fernández Cerezo, 2023. "A supply-side GDP nowcasting model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q1.
    51. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    52. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    53. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    54. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    55. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    56. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    59. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    60. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2021. "Nowcasting monthly GDP with big data: A model averaging approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 683-706, April.
    61. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    62. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    63. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
    64. Gonzalo Echavarría M. & Wildo González P, 2011. "Un Modelo de Factores Dinámicos de Pequeña Escala para el Imacec," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 109-118, August.
    65. Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Tommaso Proietti, 2023. "Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2305.06618, arXiv.org.
    66. Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013. "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper 287, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 01 Oct 2013.
    67. Ramazan Yanik & Asfia Binte Osman & Ozcan Ozturk, 2020. "Impact of manufacturing PMI on stock market index: A study on Turkey," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 6(3), pages 104-108.
    68. Necmettin Alpay Koçak, 2020. "The Role of Ecb Speeches in Nowcasting German Gdp," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 05-20.
    69. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    70. Camacho Maximo & Lovcha Yuliya & Quiros Gabriel Perez, 2015. "Can we use seasonally adjusted variables in dynamic factor models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 377-391, June.
    71. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    72. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    73. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202151, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    74. Klaus Friesenbichler & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Philipp Wegmüller, 2018. "Ein neues Modell für die kurzfristige Prognose der Herstellung von Waren und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(9), pages 651-661, September.
    75. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    76. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    77. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Luboš Rùžièka & Peter Tóth, 2011. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583, December.
    78. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CREATES Research Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    79. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    80. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    81. Stamer, Vincent, 2022. "Thinking Outside the Container: A Sparse Partial Least Squares Approach to Forecasting Trade Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264096, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    82. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
    83. Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    84. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    85. Ana Arencibia Pareja & Ana Gomez-Loscos & Mercedes de Luis López & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2020. "A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and itsDemand Components," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 43(85), pages 1-30.
    86. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2011. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 201110, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    87. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    88. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    89. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    90. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2021. "Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    91. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 201305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    92. Abberger, Klaus & Graff, Michael & Siliverstovs, Boriss & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "Using rule-based updating procedures to improve the performance of composite indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-144.
    93. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    94. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    95. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    96. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    97. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    98. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    99. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    100. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    101. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
    102. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP with electronic payments data," Statistics Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    103. Priscila Espinosa & Jose M. Pavía, 2023. "Automation in Regional Economic Synthetic Index Construction with Uncertainty Measurement," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.
    104. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
    105. Philipp Wegmüller & Christian Glocker & Valentino Guggia, 2021. "Weekly Economic Activity: Measurement and Informational Content," WIFO Working Papers 627, WIFO.
    106. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2018. "Nowcasting with payments system data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 366-376.
    107. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    108. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    109. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    110. Yannic Stucki, 2022. "Measuring Swiss employment growth: a measurement-error approach," Working Papers 2022-11, Swiss National Bank.
    111. KOCAK, Necmettin Alpay, 2021. "The Impacts Of Speeches On Nowcasting Gdp: A Case Study On Euro Area Markets," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 25(1), pages 6-29, March.
    112. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.
    113. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    114. Rueben Ellul, 2016. "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    115. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Working Papers 0912, Banco de España.
    116. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    117. Sieds, 2013. "Complete Volume LXVII n.2 2013," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 1-197, April-Jun.
    118. Lorenzo Bencivelli & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluca Moretti, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity by Bayesian bridge model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 21-40, August.
    119. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    120. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    121. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    122. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 896, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    123. Alessandro Borin & Riccardo Cristadoro & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2012. "Forecasting world output: the rising importance of emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 853, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    124. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    125. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
    126. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    127. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    128. Satoshi Urasawa, 2023. "The Usefulness of High-Frequency Alternative Data to Obtain Nowcasts for Japan’s GDP: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 191-211, September.
    129. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    130. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    131. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    132. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2013. "Nowcasting Norway," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-10, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    133. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    134. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    135. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    136. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    137. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    138. Jan Radovan & Igor Masten, 2025. "Nowcasting economic activity in a small open CESEE economy using mixed frequency data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 721-776, November.
    139. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    140. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2019. "Monitoring and Nowcasting Sustainable Development Goals. A Case Study for Austria," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66635.
    141. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    142. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    143. Antonio Musa, 2022. "Nowcasting Bosnia and Herzegovina GDP in Real Time," IHEID Working Papers 08-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    144. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    145. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    146. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo, 2013. "Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9367, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    147. Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Poncela, Pilar, 2015. "Small versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    148. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    149. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    150. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142.
    151. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: Der neue Prognosestandard des ifo Instituts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
    152. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    153. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    154. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "The franc shock and Swiss GDP: How long does it take to start feeling the pain?," KOF Working papers 15-373, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    155. Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1515, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    156. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo & Alvarez, Rocio, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8867, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    157. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    158. Máximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2015. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 764, Central Bank of Chile.
    159. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Nowcasting GDP: Electronic Payments, Data Vintages and the Timing of Data Releases," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-25, CIRANO.
    160. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    161. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    162. Jansen, W. Jos & Jin, Xiaowen & de Winter, Jasper M., 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-436.
    163. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    164. Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    165. Dimitar EFTIMOSKI, 2019. "Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Macedonian GDP: Comparing the Factor Model with the Macroeconomic Structural Equation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 32-53, June.

  21. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    2. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Jose Manuel Caetano & Antonio Bento Caleiro, 2018. "On Business Cycles Synchronization: Some Directions For The Eurasia," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 6(3), pages 13-33.
    5. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    6. Jakob de Haan & Jan Jacobs & Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2112, CESifo.
    7. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "The nature of financial and real business cycles: The great moderation and banking sector pro cyclicality," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    9. Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2014. "Output gap and non-linear economic convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.

  22. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2005. "Jump-and-rest effect of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 0507, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Agustín Maravall, 2005. "An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Working Papers 0524, Banco de España.
    2. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    4. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    5. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    6. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    7. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 534-559, June.
    8. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Juan J. Dolado & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "Dual employment protection legislation: a framework for analysis," Working Papers 0510, Banco de España.
    10. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    11. Óscar J. Arce & David López-Salido, 2006. "House Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates under Collateral Constraints," Working Papers 0610, Banco de España.
    12. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2019. "Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in regime switching econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 442-467.
    13. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    14. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Working Papers 0508, Banco de España.
    15. Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Papers 0604, Banco de España.
    16. Gabriel Jiménez & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit market competition, collateral and firms' finance," Working Papers 0612, Banco de España.
    17. Ángel de la Fuente & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU," Working Papers 0509, Banco de España.
    18. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    21. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.
    22. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Papers 0527, Banco de España.
    23. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    25. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Working Papers 0513, Banco de España.
    26. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British household panel survey," Working Papers 0511, Banco de España.
    27. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Jim Lee, 2016. "Do rice prices follow a random walk? Evidence from Markov switching unit root tests for Asian markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(6), pages 683-695, November.
    28. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    29. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
    30. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo, 2013. "Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9367, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    32. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Working Papers 0542, Banco de España.
    33. Máximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2015. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 764, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Byron Botha & Geordie Reid & Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African GDP using a suite of statistical models," Working Papers 11001, South African Reserve Bank.
    35. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Working Papers 0512, Banco de España.
    36. Paloma López-García & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Business demography in Spain: determinants of firm survival," Working Papers 0608, Banco de España.

  23. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Working Papers 0518, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Candelon & Norbert Metiu & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Working Papers 2014-328, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Atukeren, Erdal & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Korkmaz, Turhan, 2015. "Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests," MPRA Paper 76038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    4. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    5. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working papers 2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Planas, C. & Roeger, W. & Rossi, A., 2013. "The information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 577-590.
    8. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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    1. Atukeren, Erdal & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Korkmaz, Turhan, 2015. "Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests," MPRA Paper 76038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    73. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    74. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    75. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    76. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity," Working Papers 2008/03, Latvijas Banka.
    77. Sangyup Choi & Kimoon Jeong & Jiseob Kim, 2025. "One Size Does Not Fit All: Unveiling Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Working papers 2025rwp-256, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    78. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    79. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.
    80. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    81. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    82. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "The Effects of the US Economic and Financial Crises on Euro Area Convergence," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    83. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    84. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Álvaro M. Pina, 2008. "Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    85. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    86. Holtemöller, Oliver (Ed.) & Rahn, Jörg (Ed.) & Stierle, Michael H. (Ed.), 2009. "Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?," IWH-Sonderhefte 5/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    87. Masato Nakao & Toichiro Asada, 2022. "Purchase of government bonds by a supranational central bank: its impact on business cycles," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 395-424, April.
    88. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    89. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
    90. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "An analysis of duration dependence of government revenue expansions and contractions in Developing Countries," Working Papers halshs-00722083, HAL.
    91. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    92. Ana Buisán & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Cross country macroeconomic heterogeneity in EMU," Occasional Papers 0504, Banco de España.
    93. Angelos VOULDIS & Panayotis MICHAELIDES & John MILIOS, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks affect Output and Profitability over the Business Cycle in Greece (1960-2008)?," EcoMod2008 23800152, EcoMod.
    94. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
    95. Antonis A. Michis, 2021. "Wavelet Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of European Economic Sentiment Indicators," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 38(3), pages 443-480, October.
    96. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1815-1836, April.
    97. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    98. Kunovac, Davor & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "A new optimum currency area index for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2730, European Central Bank.
    99. Costain, James & de Blas, Beatriz, 2012. "The role of fiscal delegation in a monetary union: a survey of the political economy issues," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/11, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    100. , & Hwa, Yen Siew & Chua, Soo Y. & Hooi, Lean Hooi, 2015. "Do Indian Economic Activities Impact ASEAN-5 Stock Markets?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 49(2), pages 61-76.
    101. Caro Navarro, Ángela & Peña, Daniel, 2018. "Estimation of the common component in Dynamic Factor Models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 27047, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    102. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2017. "Output gap similarities in Europe: Detecting country groups," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 305, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    103. Maximo Camacho & Angela Caro & German Lopez-Buenache, 2020. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1069-1084, September.
    104. Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2016. "Oil price and stock market co-movement: What can we learn from time-scale approaches?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-280.
    105. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2011. "Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2011/286, International Monetary Fund.
    106. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    107. William Miles & Xiaoyang Zhu, 2026. "Convergence in House Price Cycles across the US: Recent Developments and the Impact of Covid," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 451-476, February.
    108. Caleiro, António, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu [Why and how must Portugal be synchronized with the European Union?]," MPRA Paper 34993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2014. "Output gap and non-linear economic convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
    110. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 621-648, December.
    111. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Economic resilience to shocks: The role of structural policies," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-38.
    112. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Working Papers 0513, Banco de España.
    113. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Peña, Daniel, 2009. "Comparison of time series with unequal length in the frequency domain," MPRA Paper 15310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    114. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 389-409.
    115. Ana Rodríguez-Santiago, 2019. "What has Changed After the Great Recession on the European Cyclical Patterns?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 121-146, December.
    116. Zlatina Balabanova & Ralf Brüggemann, 2012. "External Information and Monetary Policy Transmission in New EU Member States: Results from FAVAR Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    117. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    118. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    119. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    120. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    121. Narayan, Seema, 2014. "Integration of current account imbalances in the OECD," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 288-295.
    122. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    123. Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, María Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Application of factor models for the identification of countries sharing international reference-cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2424-2431.
    124. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2011. "Synchronization of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis," CEF.UP Working Papers 1105, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    125. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    126. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004.
    127. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2016. "Business cycle determinants and fiscal policy: A Panel ARDL approach for EMU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 57-68.
    128. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    129. Wälti, Sébastien, 2011. "Stock market synchronization and monetary integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 96-110, February.
    130. Romain Duval & Jørgen Elmeskov & Lukas Vogel, 2007. "Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 567, OECD Publishing.
    131. Devanthran, Haritharan, 2009. "Interdependence of SAARC-7 countries: an empirical study of business cycles," MPRA Paper 32798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    132. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.

  25. Israel Sancho & maximo Camacho, 2002. "Spanish diffusion indexes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 276, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    2. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    3. Christian Schumacher, 2007. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 271-302.
    4. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    5. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "On Selection of Components for a Diffusion Index Model: It's not the Size, It's How You Use It," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 598, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. Milena Lipovina-Božović, 2013. "A Comparison Of The Var Model And The Pc Factor Model In Forecasting Inflation In Montenegro," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(198), pages 115-136, July - Se.
    11. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 237-252, April.
    12. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers 232, Banque de France.
    13. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Working Papers 0912, Banco de España.
    14. Christian M. Dahl & Henrik Hansen & John Smidt, 2008. "The cyclical component factor model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Álvaro Aguirre R. & Luis Felipe Céspedes C., 2004. "Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 274, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    17. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.

  26. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
    2. Alain Hecq, 2005. "Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 141-144.
    3. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    4. Chun-Chang Lee & Chih-Min Liang & Hsing-Jung Chou, 2013. "Identifying Taiwan real estate cycle turning points- An application of the multivariate Markov-switching autoregressive Model," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 1-1.
    5. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," MPRA Paper 93512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Jiří Mazurek & Elena Mielcová, 2013. "The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 182-205.
    8. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2015. "Forecasting Brazilian Output in Real Time in the Presence of breaks: a Comparison Of Linear and Nonlinear Models," Discussion Papers 0118, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Camacho, Maximo, 2013. "Mixed-frequency VAR models with Markov-switching dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 369-373.
    11. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Michael ARTIS & Ana Beatriz C. GALVÃO & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2003. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/18, European University Institute.
    13. Maximo Camacho & Salvador Ramallo & Manuel Ruiz, 2024. "A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 833-855, August.
    14. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    15. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
    16. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2010. "Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 6-28.
    17. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    18. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 15, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    19. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    20. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    22. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
    23. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    24. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    25. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    26. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481.
    27. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
    28. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    29. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2002. "Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    30. Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2002. "GDP growth and the composite leading index: a nonlinear causality analysis for eleven countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 93-99, September.
    31. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
    32. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    33. Nenad Njegovan, 2005. "A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 421-432.
    34. Imed Medhioub, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553.
    35. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
    36. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    37. Moradi, Alireza, 2016. "Modeling Business Cycle Fluctuations through Markov Switching VAR:An Application to Iran," MPRA Paper 73608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    39. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    40. Aleksander Janes, 2011. "Managing Sustainability with a Little Help from Statistical Methods?," MIC 2011: Managing Sustainability? Proceedings of the 12th International Conference, Portorož, 23–26 November 2011 [Selected Papers],, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    41. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

Articles

  1. Camacho, Maximo & Lopez-Buenache, German, 2023. "Factor models for large and incomplete data sets with unknown group structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1205-1220.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Eliseev, 2025. "Nowcasting Russian GDP in a Mixed-Frequency DSGE Model with a Panel of Non-Modelled Variables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(3), pages 63-93, September.

  2. Camacho, Maximo & Caro, Angela & Peña, Daniel, 2023. "What drives industrial energy prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Shamoushaki, Moein & Koh, S.C. Lenny, 2025. "Novel maturity scoring for hydrogen standards and economy in G20," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

  3. Maximo Camacho & Andres Romeu, 2023. "Tourism and Gross Domestic Product short-run causality revisited: A symbolic transfer entropy approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(1), pages 235-247, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2025. "Does tourism reduce income inequality?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(3), pages 381-401, May.
    2. Muhammad Zada & Salman Khan & Shagufta Zada & Bablu Kumar Dhar & Ricardo Marcão, 2025. "Harnessing Social Media and NGO Collaboration for Advancing Sustainable Ecotourism Policy: A Pathway to Sustainable Tourism Development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 4702-4717, June.
    3. Bibiana Lanzilotta & Miriam Scaglione & Verónica Segarra, 2025. "Unraveling the links between development, growth, and tourism specialization. A country-panel analysis using self-organizing maps," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(1), pages 140-156, February.

  4. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2022. "A New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 66-81, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and the U.S. economic cycle," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    2. Manfred Keil & Edward Leamer & Yao Li, 2023. "An investigation into the probability that this is the last year of the economic expansion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1228-1244, August.
    3. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. C. Colther & J. L. Rojo & R. Hornero, 2022. "A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 171-187, July.

  6. Camacho, Maximo & Romeu, Andres & Ruiz-Marin, Manuel, 2021. "Symbolic transfer entropy test for causality in longitudinal data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 649-661.

    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Yinhong & Feng, Zhuoqi & Liu, Xueyong, 2025. "Heterogeneous information transmission between climate policy uncertainty and Chinese new energy markets: A quantile-on-quantile transfer entropy method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Maximo Camacho & Salvador Ramallo & Manuel Ruiz, 2024. "A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 833-855, August.
    3. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2024. "Oil price uncertainly and sovereign credit risk in GCC countries: fresh evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 457-482, May.
    4. Maximo Camacho & Andres Romeu, 2023. "Tourism and Gross Domestic Product short-run causality revisited: A symbolic transfer entropy approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(1), pages 235-247, February.
    5. Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe Andre & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    6. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Dionisio, Andreia & Almeida, Dora & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2022. "Nonlinear nexus between cryptocurrency returns and COVID-19 news sentiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Gu, Danlei & Lin, Aijing & Lin, Guancen, 2022. "Sleep and cardiac signal processing using improved multivariate partial compensated transfer entropy based on non-uniform embedding," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

  7. Maximo Camacho & Angela Caro & German Lopez-Buenache, 2020. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1069-1084, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2026. "The effect of risk sharing on monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 65-77, February.
    2. Sara Casagrande & Bruno Dallago, 2025. "Mapping China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Europe: Developments and Challenges," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-27, October.
    3. Pereira, Filipe & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís, 2025. "Eurozone Inflation Convergence: Deceptive Appearances," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-352.
    4. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak & Beáta Farkas, 2023. "Diverse Models of Capitalism and Synchronization of Business Cycles," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 681-712, December.
    5. Agnieszka Gehringer & Jörg König, 2021. "Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, August.

  8. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2019. "Do economic recessions cause inequality to rise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 304-320, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2022. "Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 811-839, December.
    2. Sonan Memon & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2021. "Income inequality and macroeconomic instability," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 758-789, May.
    3. Xiaonan Guo & Xiaomeng Ren & Jinchuan Shi, 2025. "Human Capital and Conspicuous Consumption," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 33(5), pages 113-138, September.
    4. Brzezinski, Michal, 2021. "The impact of past pandemics on economic and gender inequalities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Marta Escalonilla & Begoña Cueto & María José Pérez-Villadóniga, 2022. "Is the Millennial Generation Left Behind? Inter-Cohort Labour Income Inequality in a Context of Economic Shock," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 285-321, November.

  9. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Manuel Ruiz, 2019. "Inference on Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 484-495, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Statistical analysis of Markov switching vector autoregression models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Chan, Wai-Sum, 2022. "On temporal aggregation of some nonlinear time-series models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 38-49.
    4. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8828, CESifo.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

  10. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-611.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Maximo Camacho & Matías José Pacce, 2018. "Forecasting travellers in Spain with Google’s search volume indices," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 434-448, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    2. Umberto Minora & Stefano Maria Iacus & Filipe Batista e Silva & Francesco Sermi & Spyridon Spyratos, 2023. "Nowcasting tourist nights spent using innovative human mobility data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Jianxin Zhang & Yuting Yan & Jinyue Zhang & Peixue Liu & Li Ma, 2023. "Investigating the Spatial-Temporal Variation of Pre-Trip Searching in an Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Ilsé Botha & Andrea Saayman, 2024. "Does Google Analytics Improve the Prediction of Tourism Demand Recovery?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Diego Bodas & Juan R. García López & Tomasa Rodrigo López & Pep Ruiz de Aguirre & Camilo A. Ulloa & Juan Murillo Arias & Juan de Dios Romero Palop & Heribert Valero Lapaz & Matías J. Pacce, 2019. "Measuring retail trade using card transactional data," Working Papers 1921, Banco de España.
    6. Tomas Havranek & Ayaz Zeynalov, 2021. "Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 129-148, February.
    7. Katerina Volchek & Anyu Liu & Haiyan Song & Dimitrios Buhalis, 2019. "Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 425-447, May.
    8. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.
    9. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Joaquín Artés & Ana Melissa Botello Mainieri & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2019. "Tax reforms and Google searches: the case of Spanish VAT reforms during the great recession," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-336, November.
    11. Marta Crispino & Vincenzo Mariani, 2025. "A Tool to Nowcast Tourist Overnight Stays with Payment Data and Complementary Indicators," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 11(1), pages 285-312, March.
    12. Ahmed Shoukry Rashad, 2022. "The Power of Travel Search Data in Forecasting the Tourism Demand in Dubai," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-11, July.
    13. Alan Duncan & Abebe Hailemariam, 2025. "Come and say G’day: Using search engine data to understand the dynamics of tourism demand in Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(7), pages 1428-1451, November.
    14. García, Juan R. & Pacce, Matías & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Ruiz de Aguirre, Pep & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2021. "Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1235-1246.

  13. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2017. "Latin American Cycles: Has Anything Changed After the Great Recession?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 1170-1183, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás Cachanosky & Emilio Ocampo & John D. Gibson, 2024. "Can dollarization mitigate the macroeconomic cost of populism? Lessons from Latin America," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 888, Universidad del CEMA.
    2. Luciano Campos & Jesús Ruiz Andújar, 2021. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components of Latin American Business Cycles Connectedness," Working Papers 91, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

  14. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.

    Cited by:

    1. André Binette & Tony Chernis & Daniel de Munnik, 2017. "Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE," Discussion Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Accurate Subsampling Intervals of Principal Components Factors," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23974, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Gabe de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Pablo Herrero & Zivile Zekaite, 2021. "Euro Area Income and Wealth Effects: Aggregation Issues," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1454-1474, December.
    6. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    8. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    10. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    11. Mick van Rooijen & Dorinth W. van Dijk & Jasper M. de Winter, 2025. "Designing a Nowcasting Model for GDP Growth: A Practical Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 173(4), pages 665-704, December.
    12. Daan Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2025. "Slow Expectation–Maximization Convergence in Low‐Noise Dynamic Factor Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 829-845, November.
    13. Christian Garciga & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "Improving the Median CPI: Maximal Disaggregation Isn't Necessarily Optimal," Working Papers 24-02R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 03 Feb 2026.
    14. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    15. Jan Radovan & Igor Masten, 2025. "Nowcasting economic activity in a small open CESEE economy using mixed frequency data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 721-776, November.
    16. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    17. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: Der neue Prognosestandard des ifo Instituts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
    18. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.

  15. Camacho Maximo & Lovcha Yuliya & Quiros Gabriel Perez, 2015. "Can we use seasonally adjusted variables in dynamic factor models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 377-391, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & Rafael Suárez-Vega, 2024. "Is peer-to-peer demand cointegrated at the listing level?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(5), pages 2249-2275, May.
    2. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    3. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," NBER Working Papers 27586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    5. Hopp Daniel, 2022. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Journal of Official Statistics, Paradigm, vol. 38(3), pages 847-873, September.
    6. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.
    7. Ignacio Garr'on & C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," Papers 2410.20628, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    8. Garrón Vedia, Ignacio & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 44814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  16. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2015. "Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1073-1089, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Camacho, Maximo & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 617-625.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Camacho, Maximo & Dal Bianco, Marcos & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Toward a more reliable picture of the economic activity: An application to Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 129-132.

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    2. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    3. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.

  19. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2014. "Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 520-535.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Maximo Camacho & Agustin Garcia‐Serrador, 2014. "The Euro‐Sting Revisited: The Usefulness of Financial Indicators to Obtain Euro Area GDP Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 186-197, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    2. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    3. Gabe J. Bondt, 2019. "A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 147-170, December.
    4. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    6. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    8. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    9. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    10. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2025. "Unsicherheitsabhängige Konfidenzintervalle für WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(11), pages 631-637, November.

  21. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2014. "Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America: Living and Dying by Commodities?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 110-137, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Camacho, Maximo, 2013. "Mixed-frequency VAR models with Markov-switching dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 369-373.

    Cited by:

    1. Kenichiro McAlinn, 2021. "Mixed‐frequency Bayesian predictive synthesis for economic nowcasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1143-1163, November.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Samar K. Guharay & Gaurav S. Thakur & Fred J. Goodman & Scott L. Rosen & Daniel Houser, 2016. "Integrated data-driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(18), pages 1678-1694, April.

  24. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2013. "Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists: A Survey of the Recently Proposed Algorithms," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 101-161, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2011. "Spain‐Sting: Spain Short‐Term Indicator Of Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 594-616, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    2. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," EcoMod2012 4219, EcoMod.
    5. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    6. Diego Fresoli, 2024. "Spanish GDP short-term point and density forecasting using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 145-177, June.
    7. Alejandro Fernández Cerezo, 2023. "A supply-side GDP nowcasting model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q1.
    8. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    9. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    10. Klaus Friesenbichler & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Philipp Wegmüller, 2018. "Ein neues Modell für die kurzfristige Prognose der Herstellung von Waren und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(9), pages 651-661, September.
    11. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    12. Ana Arencibia Pareja & Ana Gomez-Loscos & Mercedes de Luis López & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2020. "A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and itsDemand Components," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 43(85), pages 1-30.
    13. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2023. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 165-187, June.
    14. Corinna Ghirelli & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty in Latin America: measurement using Spanish newspapers and economic spillovers," Working Papers 2024, Banco de España.
    15. Philipp Wegmüller & Christian Glocker & Valentino Guggia, 2021. "Weekly Economic Activity: Measurement and Informational Content," WIFO Working Papers 627, WIFO.
    16. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    17. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    18. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    19. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    20. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    21. Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    22. Jansen, W. Jos & Jin, Xiaowen & de Winter, Jasper M., 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-436.

  29. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O’Connor, 2013. "Do bubbles occur in the gold price? An investigation of gold lease rates and Markov Switching models," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(3), pages 53-63, September.
    2. Emrah Ismail Cevik & Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the US: A Markov-Switching VAR analysis," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 519-541, May.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Salvador, Enrique & Vougas, Dimitrios, 2020. "On the Stationarity of Futures Hedge Ratios," MPRA Paper 102907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2019. "Does U.K.’s Real GDP have a Unit Root? Evidence from a Multi-Century Perspective," Working Papers 201926, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.
    6. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Relationships among regional housing markets: Evidence on adjustments of housing burden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-318.
    7. Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2015. "The US Real GNP is Trend-Stationary After All," Working Papers 201581, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Characterising the South African business cycle: is GDP difference-stationary or trend-stationary in a Markov-switching setup? - Il ciclo economico del Sud Africa: il PIL è stazion ario alle differenz," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(1), pages 33-44.
    9. Edgar Villa & Martha A. Misas & Andrés F. Giraldo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and an Optimal Taylor Rule for an Open Economy: Evidence for Colombia 1990-2011," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 41-83, May.
    10. Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan, 2016. "Regime Nonstationarity and Nonlinearity in the Turkish Output Level," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 6(2), pages 503-507.
    11. Tolga Omay & Aysegul Corakci, 2024. "A Unit Root Test with Markov Switching Deterministic Components: A Special Emphasis on Nonlinear Optimization Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1837-1856, September.
    12. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    13. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    14. C. Colther & J. L. Rojo & R. Hornero, 2022. "A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 171-187, July.
    15. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
    16. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "A time varying approach on the price elasticity of electricity in India during 1975–2013," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 385-397.
    17. Richard Dutu & Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2016. "Modelling A Regime-Shifting Beveridge Curve," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 90-104, January.
    18. Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa P�rez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-38.

  30. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Arielle Beyaert & Maximo Camacho, 2008. "TAR Panel Unit Root Tests and Real Convergence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 668-681, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Fung, Ka Wai Terence, 2013. "Convergence in Health Care Expenditure of 14 EU Countries: New Evidence from Non-linear Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 52871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
    3. Mehmet Mercan & Ozlem Azer, 2013. "The Relationship between Economic Growth and Income Distribution in Turkey and the Turkish Republics of Central Asia and Caucasia: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 165-182, December.
    4. Long, Xingle & Sun, Mei & Cheng, Faxin & Zhang, Jijian, 2017. "Convergence analysis of eco-efficiency of China’s cement manufacturers through unit root test of panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 709-717.
    5. Rodríguez-Benavides, Domingo & Mendoza-González, Miguel Ángel & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2014. "¿Realmente existe convergencia regional en México? Un modelo no lineal de datos panel TAR [Is There Really Regional Convergence in Mexico? A Non-linear Panel-Data TAR Model]," MPRA Paper 56874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Veli Yilanci & Muhammed Sehid Gorus & Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2022. "Convergence in per capita carbon footprint and ecological footprint for G7 countries: Evidence from panel Fourier threshold unit root test," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(3), pages 527-545, May.
    7. Edgardo A. Ayala Gaytán & Joana C. Chapa Cantú & Juan D. Murguía Hernández, 2011. "Una reconsideración sobre la convergencia regional en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 26(2), pages 217-247.
    8. Marina Glushenkova & Andros Kourtellos & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Barriers to price convergence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2016, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    9. Mehmet MERCAN, 2014. "Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 231-245.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "How Do Carbon Emissions Respond to Economic Shocks? Evidence from Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries," MPRA Paper 93976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2019.
    11. Nilgun Yavuz & Veli Yilanci, 2013. "Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 283-291, February.
    12. Bilgili, Faik, 2012. "Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6775-6781.
    13. Zdravko Šergo & Amorino Poropat & Pavlo Ružić, 2014. "The determinants of length of stay and arrivals of tourists in the Croatia: a panel data approach," Tourism and Hospitality Industry section8-4, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    14. César Lenin Navarro-Chávez, 2025. "Economic and Sectoral Convergence in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Analysis of Beta, Sigma, and Gamma Convergence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-22, January.
    15. Christian K. Tipoy, 2019. "Real Convergence using TAR Panel Unit Root Tests: An Application to The Southern African Development Community," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(1-2), pages 45-61, January-J.
    16. Penna, Christiano Modesto & Linhares, Fabricio Carneiro, 2013. "Há controvérsia entre análises de beta e sigma-convergência no Brasil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    17. Gülsüm AKARSU & Reyhan CAFRI & Hanife BIDIRDI, 2019. "Are Public-Private Components of Health Care Expenditures Converging Among OECD Countries? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Unit Root TestAbstract: Many countries devote an increasing proportion of their economic resources to produce and provide healt," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    18. Mu Shun Wang, 2012. "Income convergence within ASEAN, ASEAN+3: a panel unit root approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 417-423, March.
    19. Christos Kollias & Petros Messis, 2020. "Are future enlargement candidate countries converging with the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 453-473, August.
    20. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    21. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Khan, Atif Maqbool & Bibi, Salma & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2017. "Convergence of per capita CO2 emissions across the globe: Insights via wavelet analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 86-97.
    22. Yilanci, Veli & Kongkuah, Maxwell, 2025. "Forest product footprint convergence in the Amazon: A panel data analysis of ACTO countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    23. Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2014. "Output gap and non-linear economic convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
    24. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    25. Xingle Long & Chuanwang Sun & Chao Wu & Bin Chen & Kofi Agyenim Boateng, 2020. "Green innovation efficiency across China’s 30 provinces: estimate, comparison, and convergence," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1243-1260, October.
    26. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region's Integration Projects," Working Papers halshs-01069353, HAL.
    27. Chi Lau & Ka Fung & Lee Pugalis, 2014. "Is health care expenditure across Europe converging? Findings from the application of a nonlinear panel unit root test," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 137-156, December.
    28. Holobiuc Ana-Maria & Mihai Bogdan, 2019. "Was Euro the magic wand for economic growth? An analysis of the real benefits of Euro adoption for the New Member States," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Paradigm, vol. 13(1), pages 840-853, May.

  33. Ying Huang & Carl R. Chen & Maximo Camacho, 2008. "Determinants of Japanese Yen interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from a smooth transition vector autoregressive model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-107, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.

  34. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Bengoechea, Pilar & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2006. "A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 735-749.

    Cited by:

    1. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    2. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 557-580, December.
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    5. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.
    6. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    7. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47, April.
    8. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2023. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(3), pages 311-371, November.
    9. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
    10. Kostas Mouratidis & Dimitris Kenourgios & Aris Samitas, 2010. "Evaluating currency crisis:A multivariate Markov switching approach," Working Papers 2010018, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    11. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The propagation of industrial business cycles," Working Papers 1728, Banco de España.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Post-Print halshs-00275769, HAL.
    13. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "An investigation on mixed housing-cycle structures and asymmetric tail dependences," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Maximo Camacho & Angela Caro & German Lopez-Buenache, 2020. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1069-1084, September.
    16. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 14-24.
    17. Huang, MeiChi & Wu, Chu-Hua & Cheng, I-Shan, 2021. "A truly global crisis? Evidence from contagion dependence across international REIT markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    19. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.

  37. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Vasco Gabriel & Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2007. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment," GEMF Working Papers 2007-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.
    3. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    4. Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for M1," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 690, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
    7. Rezitis Anthony N & Stavropoulos Konstantinos S, 2011. "Price Transmission and Volatility in the Greek Broiler Sector: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, July.
    8. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. Lee, Jim & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2015. "Do Rice Prices Follow a Random Walk? Evidence from Markov Switching Unit Root Tests for Asian Markets," MPRA Paper 123469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Juselius, Mikael & Kim, Moshe & Ringbom, Staffan, 2009. "Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland.
    11. C. Colther & J. L. Rojo & R. Hornero, 2022. "A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 171-187, July.
    12. Li, Wei & Xu, Wei & Zhao, Junfeng & Jin, Yanfei, 2007. "Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 702-711.
    13. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 592, European Central Bank.
    14. Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alexandru, 2011. "On pricing and hedging options in regime-switching models with feedback effect," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 694-713, May.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    16. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

  38. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.

    Cited by:

    1. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2018. "State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7074, CESifo.
    2. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Anna Rita Bennato & Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2014. "150 Years of Italian CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth," CEIS Research Paper 320, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Jul 2014.
    4. Ubilava, David, 2014. "The ENSO Effect on World Wheat Market Dynamics: Smooth Transitions in Asymmetric Price Transmission," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170223, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. Stein, Michael & Islami, Mevlud & Lindemann, Jens, 2012. "Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence," Discussion Papers 24/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    9. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Post-Print hal-03529868, HAL.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk Spillover in the US Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-47, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    11. Andrea Bucci & Giulio Palomba & Eduardo Rossi, 2019. "Does macroeconomics help in predicting stock markets volatility comovements? A nonlinear approach," Working Papers 440, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    12. Demetrescu, Matei & Leppin, Julian Sebastian & Reitz, Stefan, 2017. "Homogenous vs. heterogenous transition functions in smooth transition regressions: A LM-type test," Kiel Working Papers 2094, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    13. Kotz Hans-Helmut & Semmler Willi & Tahri Ibrahim, 2018. "Financial fragmentation and the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: a smooth transition VAR approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    16. Chapda Nana, Guy & Larue, Bruno & Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2012. "Regional integration and dynamic adjustments: Evidence from gross national product functions for Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 246-264.
    17. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2014. "The Evolving Relationships between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 135-187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    19. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100578, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Das, Mahamitra & Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2019. "Mean and Volatility Spillovers between REIT and Stocks Returns A STVAR-BTGARCH-M Model," MPRA Paper 94707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  39. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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