IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/772.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycle Synchronization in Euro Area and GCC Countries: A Wavelets-GA Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mustapha Djennas

    (Faculty of economics, University of Tlemcen, Algeria)

  • Mohamed Benbouziane
  • Meriem Djennas

Abstract

In this paper, we use an Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) and Wavelet Transformation (WT) to provide a detailed characterization of the business cycle synchronization among the countries under study, namely Euro Area and Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) countries. In addition, we introduce a Genetic Algorithm combined with wavelets transform to search for the best combinations of synchronization factors which offer an optimal solution for changing business cycles in order to achieve high levels of economic integration beween two groups of countries. The analyses are conducted by introducing the main determinants of business cycles existing in the literature in order to understand how they could elvolve both in time and in scale, depending on the different phases of the system construction. Globally, and unlike the Euro Area, the results show not only a considerable delay in creating an economic and financial integration in the GCC, but more importantly, a growing divergence in business cycles among the countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Euro Area and GCC Countries: A Wavelets-GA Approach," Working Papers 772, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/772.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2lw0a5Q
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    5. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2009. "Business Cycle Synchronization Across the Euro-Area: a Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 8/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    8. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    9. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1993. "Looking at the facts : what we know about policy and growth from cross-country analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1115, The World Bank.
    10. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
    11. Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    2. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    3. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    5. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Foster, Neil & Scharler, Johann, 2011. "Labour market rigidities and international risk sharing across OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 660-677, June.
    7. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, April.
    8. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    9. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1065-1079, September.
    10. Bekiros Stelios & Nguyen Duc Khuong & Uddin Gazi Salah & Sjö Bo, 2015. "Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 609-624, December.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?," FIW Working Paper series 075, FIW.
    13. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    15. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.
    16. Mr. Romain A Duval & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/052, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Zhang, L., 2011. "Specialization in the presence of trade and financial integration: explorations of the integration-specialization nexus," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    18. Toan Nguyen, 2007. "Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia: An Extreme Bound Analysis," Working Papers 14, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    19. Carlo Gianelle & Letizia Montinari & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Interregional Trade, Specialization, and the Business Cycle: Policy Implications for the EMU," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, May.
    20. Jaap W. B. Bos & Claire Economidou & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Specialization in the presence of trade and financial openness," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2783-2816, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.