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Interdependence of SAARC-7 countries: an empirical study of business cycles

  • Devanthran, Haritharan

This research intends to study on the interdependence of South Asia Association of Regional Co-operation (SAARC-7) relationship. It consists of seven countries which include Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Maldives, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. This study utilizes yearly real GDP data that spans from 1970 to 2007 from the SAARC-7 countries. Three methods are used to determine the interdependence of SAARC-7 countries namely the correlation coefficient estimation method, the standard Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Empirical results show that there are mutual relationship and correlation among the real GDP growth between SAARC-7 countries in the long run. Results obtained from the Toda and Yamamoto Granger non-causality test indicate that there is a sturdy interdependence among the economies of SAARC-7 countries.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32798.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32798
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  1. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
  3. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "Domestic Saving and Foreign Investment in Australia: A Granger Causality Test," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 79-87.
  4. Khan, Saleem M. & Khan, Zahira S., 2003. "Asian economic integration: a perspective on South Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 767-785, January.
  5. Jain, Subhash C., 1999. "Prospects for a South Asian free trade agreement: problems and challenges," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 399-419, August.
  6. Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Can South Asia Adopt a Common Currency?," International Finance 0508001, EconWPA.
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Margarita Katsimi & Nikitas Pittis, 2002. "Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 703-711, January.
  8. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
  9. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2000. "The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 405-410.
  10. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
  11. Hassan, M. Kabir, 2001. "Is SAARC a viable economic block? evidence from gravity model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 263-290.
  12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
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