IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/32798.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interdependence of SAARC-7 countries: an empirical study of business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Devanthran, Haritharan

Abstract

This research intends to study on the interdependence of South Asia Association of Regional Co-operation (SAARC-7) relationship. It consists of seven countries which include Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Maldives, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. This study utilizes yearly real GDP data that spans from 1970 to 2007 from the SAARC-7 countries. Three methods are used to determine the interdependence of SAARC-7 countries namely the correlation coefficient estimation method, the standard Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Empirical results show that there are mutual relationship and correlation among the real GDP growth between SAARC-7 countries in the long run. Results obtained from the Toda and Yamamoto Granger non-causality test indicate that there is a sturdy interdependence among the economies of SAARC-7 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Devanthran, Haritharan, 2009. "Interdependence of SAARC-7 countries: an empirical study of business cycles," MPRA Paper 32798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32798
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32798/1/MPRA_paper_32798.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassan, M. Kabir, 2001. "Is SAARC a viable economic block? evidence from gravity model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 263-290.
    2. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "Domestic Saving and Foreign Investment in Australia: A Granger Causality Test," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 79-87.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    4. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    5. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
    6. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    7. Khan, Saleem M. & Khan, Zahira S., 2003. "Asian economic integration: a perspective on South Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 767-785, January.
    8. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2000. "The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 405-410.
    9. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    10. Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2005. "Can South Asia adopt a common currency?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 635-662, August.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Margarita Katsimi & Nikitas Pittis, 2002. "Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 703-711, January.
    12. Jain, Subhash C., 1999. "Prospects for a South Asian free trade agreement: problems and challenges," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 399-419, August.
    13. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    2. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    3. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. J Pentecost Eric & Ramlogan Carlyn, 2000. "The Savings Ratio and Financial Repression in Trinidad and Tobago," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 67-84.
    5. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    8. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    9. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:23:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Teresa Maria Rodrigues & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, edition 127, pages 143-156, Springer.
    12. Khalid KHAN & Chi-Wei SU & Nicoleta - Claudia MOLDOVAN & De-Ping XIONG, 2017. "Distinctive Characteristics of the Causality between the PPI and CPI: Evidence from Romania," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 51(2), pages 103-123.
    13. Chan Swee Lean, 2001. "Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 355-363.
    14. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    15. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Suresh K.G., & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 432-440.
    16. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    17. Kunlin Hsieh & Yuching Hsieh & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2010. "The Interdependence of Taiwanese and Japanese Stock Prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 879-892.
    18. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    19. Masih, Mansur & AbdulKarim, Fatima, 2014. "Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate, exchange rate and prices: Nigeria as a case study," MPRA Paper 58240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mansor Ibrahim & Abdullahi Ahmed, 2013. "Stock Market and Aggregate Investment Behavior in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 265-284, October.
    21. Ana Lamo & Javier J. Pérez & Ludger Schuknecht, 2008. "Public and private sector wages:comovement and casuality," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2008/14, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economy Integration; Business Cycles; SAARC-7;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32798. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.