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Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate, exchange rate and prices: Nigeria as a case study


  • Masih, Mansur
  • AbdulKarim, Fatima


The primary aim of this study is to investigate the causal chain among output, money, prices, exchange rate and inflation in the context of Nigerian economy following the global economic crisis that hit many countries. The data used are from 1970 to 2012. The methodology employed uses several econometric techniques such as unit root tests, cointegration, vector error-correction model(VECM), variance decompositions and persistent profile in order to capture both the within-sample and out- of- sample causality. The result obtained is quite in line with our expectation given the nature of the Nigerian economy that relies heavily on the crude oil revenue and also imports from abroad. The result of cointegration analysis reveals that there exist long run relationships among the variables under study. From the VECM analysis, it suggests that output, interest rate and prices are the leading variables while exchange rate and money appear to have borne the brunt of the short run adjustments. This finding is in line with the real business cycle theory. In order to capture the impact of economic crisis on the selected variables, a dummy variable was created in the VECM analysis. It indicates an absence of the impact of the global economic crisis on the Nigerian economy as evidenced by the insignificance of the coefficient of the dummy variable. The findings of these results have economic policy implications in that output contains information about the sources of shock that affects the economy and hence output would be useful in predicting the future growth of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Masih, Mansur & AbdulKarim, Fatima, 2014. "Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate, exchange rate and prices: Nigeria as a case study," MPRA Paper 58240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58240

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    3. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    4. Martins Iyoboyi & Olarinde Muftau, 2014. "Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    6. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    7. Tan Hui Boon & Baharumshah Ahmad Zubaidi, 1999. "Dynamic Causal Chain of Money, Output, Interest Rate and Prices in Malaysia: Evidence Based On Vector Error- Correction Modelling Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 103-120.
    8. King, Stephen R, 1986. "Monetary Transmission: Through Bank Loans or Bank Liabilities?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, August.
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    More about this item


    Nigeria; Macroeconomics; cointegration; Granger-causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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