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Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?

Author

Listed:
  • Maximo Camacho

    () (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Yuliya Lovcha

    (Universidad de Navarra)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches to forecasting using dynamic factor models. The first approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual indicators before estimating the dynamic factor model, while the alternative uses the nonseasonally adjusted data in a model that endogenously accounts for seasonal adjustment. Our Monte Carlo analysis reveals that the performance of the former is always comparable to or even better than that of the latter in all the simulated scenarios. Our results have important implications for the factor models literature because they show that the common practice of using seasonally adjusted data in this type of model is very accurate in terms of forecasting ability. Drawing on fi ve coincident indicators, we illustrate this result for US data

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Yuliya Lovcha & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?," Working Papers 1235, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1235
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/12/Fich/dt1235e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Hannan, E J & Terrell, R D & Tuckwell, N E, 1970. "The Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 24-52, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor models; seasonal adjustment; short-term forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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