Testing for Exceptional Bulls and Bears: a Non-Parametric Perspective
This paper investigates exceptional phases of stock market cycles. Defined in Pagan and Sossounov (2003) as unusual, they are detected as outliers in the historical distribution. Moreover, this study completes the growing literature on stock market bulls and bears in several aspects. First,it extends the description of financial cy- cles by going beyond solely the duration feature. Second, a new strategy to test for single and multiple outliers is presented. Based on this procedure, the exceptional bulls and bears that occurred since 1973 are detected. A complementary analysis deals with the specific cross-country patterns of the current sub-prime crisis. Our results are mixed, in the sense that they do not support the idea that the ongoing bear is exceptional for all the analyzed countries. Moreover, the results indicate that the stock market indices are still far away from the thresholds beyond which the current bear phase will become exceptional worldwide.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +31 (0)43 38 83 830
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Javier Biscarri & Fernando Gracia, 2004.
"Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain,"
Spanish Economic Review,
Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 127-151, 07.
- Javier GÃ³mez Biscarri & Fernando PÃ©rez de Gracia, 2002. "Stock Market Cycles and Stock Market Development in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 03/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008.
"Do European business cycles look like one?,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
- Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990.
"Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 265-281, June.
- Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
- Biscarri, Javier GÛmez & Fernando PÈrez de Gracia, 2002. "Bulls and Bears: Lessons from some European Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 28, Royal Economic Society.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2009017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.