Testing for Exceptional Bulls and Bears: a Non-Parametric Perspective
This paper investigates exceptional phases of stock market cycles. Defined in Pagan and Sossounov (2003) as unusual, they are detected as outliers in the historical distribution. Moreover, this study completes the growing literature on stock market bulls and bears in several aspects. First,it extends the description of financial cy- cles by going beyond solely the duration feature. Second, a new strategy to test for single and multiple outliers is presented. Based on this procedure, the exceptional bulls and bears that occurred since 1973 are detected. A complementary analysis deals with the specific cross-country patterns of the current sub-prime crisis. Our results are mixed, in the sense that they do not support the idea that the ongoing bear is exceptional for all the analyzed countries. Moreover, the results indicate that the stock market indices are still far away from the thresholds beyond which the current bear phase will become exceptional worldwide.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: +31 (0)43 38 83 830
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006.
"Synchronization of cycles,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Synchronization of cycles," CAMA Working Papers 2004-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 265-281, June.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Biscarri & Fernando Gracia, 2004. "Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 127-151, 07.
- Javier GÃ³mez Biscarri & Fernando PÃ©rez de Gracia, 2002. "Stock Market Cycles and Stock Market Development in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 03/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Biscarri, Javier GÛmez & Fernando PÈrez de Gracia, 2002. "Bulls and Bears: Lessons from some European Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 28, Royal Economic Society.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
- Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
- Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Working Papers 0518, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)