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Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz

    (Fedea
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Manu García

    (Fedea
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Luis A. Puch

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Jesús Ruiz

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the time series properties of a novel daily series of aggregate employment creation and destruction as registered by the Social Security in Spain. We focus on the period of economic recovery after the 2012 Labour Market Reform. Our concern for high-frequency data is motivated by the recent upsurge of labour contracts of a very short duration, which seems to have exacerbated the spikes in employment flows over the calendar year. First, we identify calendar effects in job flows and single out the Monday effect: an overreaction in job creation at the beginning of the workweek. Then, we investigate the importance of calendar effects for aggregate employment dynamics. We find that the employment growth rate shows a systematic decrease by the end of each month, which is more pronounced during the second half of the year, and it intensifies as the economy moves further along the expansion period. Finally, we use the flow of contract records at the micro-level (several millions) to evaluate how the occupational structure determines employment spikes. Our findings indicate that short-term contracts are highly prevalent in occupations under stronger calendar effects. In particular, we show that temporary workers’ contracts are the most important source of the Monday effect.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-019-0187-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-019-0187-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. 2 julio 2018: el día en el que se destruyeron 504.630 afiliados y se crearon 519.126
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-08-02 11:15:14

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    1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    2. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García, 2019. "Retos Laborales pendientes tras la Gran Recesión," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2019-06, FEDEA.
    3. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2020. "Una metodología para el seguimiento de la afiliación a la Seguridad Social durante la crisis del Covid-19," Fedea Economy Notes 2020-06, FEDEA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment flows; Fixed-term contracts; Calendar effects; Business cycle fluctuations; Sectoral composition; Regime shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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