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Calendar Effects in Daily Aggregate Employment Creation and Destruction in Spain

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  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz
  • Manu García
  • Luis A. Puch
  • Jesús Ruiz

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the time series properties of a novel daily series of aggregate employment creation and destruction as registered by the Social Security in Spain. We focus on the period of economic recovery after the 2012 Labour Reform. Our aim is to disentangle the role of key economic factors face to face observed calendar effects. While calendar effects are mostly associated to the incentives for firms to avoid labour costs due to employment legislation, there seem to be determinants of their quantitative importance related to the sectoral composition of the economy and to business cycle fluctuations. First, we identify calendar effects in job flows and we single out the Monday effect: an overreaction in job creation at the beginning of the workweek. Then we investigate the importance of calendar effects for aggregate employment dynamics. We find asymmetry between a “normal” state most of the time, and a state of low growth by the end of every month, which is more intense the second half of the year and while the economy is booming. Finally, we use the register of contracts at the micro level to evaluate how the occupational structure determines the variability of calendar effects over time. Our findings suggest that a move towards a unique contract will dramatically modify the determinants and some of the consequences of temporary employment in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2018. "Calendar Effects in Daily Aggregate Employment Creation and Destruction in Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2018-10, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2018-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. 2 julio 2018: el día en el que se destruyeron 504.630 afiliados y se crearon 519.126
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-08-02 11:15:14

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    1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    2. José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Jesús Lahera Forteza, 2021. "Contra la Dualidad Laboral," Policy Papers 2021-07, FEDEA.
    3. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Hospido, Laura & Ruggieri, Alessandro, 2021. "Dual Returns to Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 14596, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2020. "Una metodología para el seguimiento de la afiliación a la Seguridad Social durante la crisis del Covid-19," Fedea Economy Notes 2020-06, FEDEA.
    5. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García, 2019. "Retos Laborales pendientes tras la Gran Recesión," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2019-06, FEDEA.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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