IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fda/fdaeee/eee2018-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Calendar Effects in Daily Aggregate Employment Creation and Destruction in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz
  • Manu García
  • Luis A. Puch
  • Jesús Ruiz

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the time series properties of a novel daily series of aggregate employment creation and destruction as registered by the Social Security in Spain. We focus on the period of economic recovery after the 2012 Labour Reform. Our aim is to disentangle the role of key economic factors face to face observed calendar effects. While calendar effects are mostly associated to the incentives for firms to avoid labour costs due to employment legislation, there seem to be determinants of their quantitative importance related to the sectoral composition of the economy and to business cycle fluctuations. First, we identify calendar effects in job flows and we single out the Monday effect: an overreaction in job creation at the beginning of the workweek. Then we investigate the importance of calendar effects for aggregate employment dynamics. We find asymmetry between a “normal” state most of the time, and a state of low growth by the end of every month, which is more intense the second half of the year and while the economy is booming. Finally, we use the register of contracts at the micro level to evaluate how the occupational structure determines the variability of calendar effects over time. Our findings suggest that a move towards a unique contract will dramatically modify the determinants and some of the consequences of temporary employment in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2018. "Calendar Effects in Daily Aggregate Employment Creation and Destruction in Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2018-10, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2018-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/eee/eee2018-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cahuc, Pierre & Nevoux, Sandra, 2017. "Inefficient Short-Time Work," IZA Discussion Papers 11010, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish long-term unemployed unemployable?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    3. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Dolado & Juan Jimeno, 2012. "Reforming an insider-outsider labor market: the Spanish experience," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Paulo Rodrigues & Paulo Esteves, 2010. "Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2587-2597.
    5. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    6. Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Employment Protection on Job Flows: Evidence from Seasonal Cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 98, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Stéphane Bonhomme & Laura Hospido, 2017. "The Cycle of Earnings Inequality: Evidence from Spanish Social Security Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1244-1278, August.
    8. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    9. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Jose Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, 2008. "Two-tier Employment Protection Reforms: The Spanish Experience," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(04), pages 49-56, December.
    10. Juan J Dolado & Carlos Garcia--Serrano & Juan F. Jimeno, 2002. "Drawing Lessons From The Boom Of Temporary Jobs In Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(721), pages 270-295, June.
    11. Florentino Felgueroso & José-Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen & David Troncoso-Ponce, 2017. "Recent trends in the use of temporary contracts in Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2017-25, FEDEA.
    12. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Jose Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, 2008. "Two-tier Employment Protection Reforms: The Spanish Experience," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 49-56, December.
    13. Andrew Benito & Ignacio Hernando, 2008. "Labour Demand, Flexible Contracts and Financial Factors: Firm‐Level Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(3), pages 283-301, June.
    14. James Costain & Juan F. Jimeno & Carlos Thomas, 2010. "Employment fluctuations in a dual labour market," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue APR, pages 1-8, April.
    15. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, 2000. "Work Transitions into and Out of Involuntary Temporary Employment in a Segmented Market: Evidence from Spain," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(2), pages 309-325, January.
    16. Carrasco, Raquel, 1999. "Transitions to and from Self-employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 315-341, August.
    17. Hakan Berument & Halil Kiymaz, 2001. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 181-193, June.
    18. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    19. José María Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, 2014. "The interplay of the unemployment compensation system, fixed-term contracts and rehirings: The case of Spain," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(8), pages 1236-1259, October.
    20. repec:ces:ifodic:v:6:y:2008:i:4:p:14567215 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?," Working Papers wp2018_1707, CEMFI.
    22. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-137, March.
    23. Roy Verbaan & Wilko Bolt & Carin van der Cruijsen, 2017. "Using debit card payments data for nowcasting Dutch household consumption," DNB Working Papers 571, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    24. Stéphane Bonhomme & Laura Hospido, 2017. "The Cycle of Earnings Inequality: Evidence From Spanish Social Security Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1244-1278.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. 2 julio 2018: el día en el que se destruyeron 504.630 afiliados y se crearon 519.126
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-08-02 11:15:14

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    2. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2020. "Una metodología para el seguimiento de la afiliación a la Seguridad Social durante la crisis del Covid-19," Fedea Economy Notes 2020-06, FEDEA.
    3. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García, 2019. "Retos Laborales pendientes tras la Gran Recesión," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2019-06, FEDEA.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florentino Felgueroso & José-Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen & David Troncoso-Ponce, 2018. "The Surge in Short-Duration Contracts in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 166(4), pages 503-534, December.
    2. Virginia Sanchez Marcos & Ezgi Kaya & Nezih Guner, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility," 2017 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Juan J. Dolado & Salvador Ortigueira & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2016. "Does dual employment protection affect TFP? Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 421-459, November.
    4. Cristina Lafuente, 0. "Unemployment in administrative data using survey data as a benchmark," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 0, pages 1-39.
    5. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish long-term unemployed unemployable?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    6. Cristina Lafuente, 2020. "Unemployment in administrative data using survey data as a benchmark," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 115-153, June.
    7. Ana Karina Alfaro Moreno & José Javier Núñez Velázquez, 2019. "Utilization of Mixed Distributions in the Calculation of Polarization: The Case of Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 911-946, April.
    8. Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Intergenerational effects of employment protection reforms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2011. "The part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 591-606, October.
    10. Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano & Anastasia Terskaya, 2020. "The labor market in Spain, 2002–2018," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 403-403, March.
    11. Ignacio García Pérez, J. & Osuna, Victoria, 2014. "Dual labour markets and the tenure distribution: Reducing severance pay or introducing a single contract," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-13.
    12. J Ignacio García-Pérez & Ioana Marinescu & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Can Fixed-term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1693-1730.
    13. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Dolado & Juan Jimeno, 2012. "Reforming an insider-outsider labor market: the Spanish experience," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, December.
    14. Stefano Visintin & Alessandro Gentile, 2013. "Il mercato del lavoro in spagna: criticità e riforme strutturali in un contesto di crisi economica," ECONOMIA E SOCIET REGIONALE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(2), pages 65-85.
    15. Antonio Cabrales & Juan J. Dolado & Ricardo Mora, 2014. "Dual Labour Markets And (Lack Of) On-Thejob Training: Piaac Evidence From Spain And Other Eu Countries," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2014-14, FEDEA.
    16. repec:ilo:ilowps:481498 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2019. "Dual Labour Markets Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 12126, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
    19. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?," Working Papers wp2018_1707, CEMFI.
    20. Andrea Vindigni & Simone Scotti & Cristina Tealdi, 2015. "Uncertainty and the Politics of Employment Protection," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 209-267.
    21. Indermit Gill & Johannes Koettl & Truman Packard, 2013. "Full employment: a distant dream for Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-34, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2018-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias). General contact details of provider: https://www.fedea.net .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.