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Francesco Bianchi

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," NBER Working Papers 27112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    3. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Tax revenue
  2. Bianchi, Francesco & Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," CEPR Discussion Papers 14720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    3. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Tax revenue
  3. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Schools of Economic Thought, Epistemology of Economics > Economic Methodology > Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium > Estimated DSGE Models
  4. Bianchi, Francesco & Bianchi, Giada & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences
  5. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," Working Paper Series WP 2020-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy
    3. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Tax revenue

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Paper Series WP-2016-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Escaping the Great Recession (AER 2017) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Uncertainty shocks, asset supply and pricing over the business cycle (REStud 2018) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," ISER Discussion Paper 1249, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.

    Cited by:

    1. Na, Seunghoon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2025. "Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

  2. Robert J. Barro & Francesco Bianchi, 2023. "Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries, 2020-2023," NBER Working Papers 31838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "The Economics of Helicopter Money," Working Papers 8/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Marco Bassetto & Luca Benzoni & Jason Hall, 2024. "On the Mechanics of Fiscal Inflations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 44(2), July.

  3. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. LeBaron, Blake & Smith, Karen, 2025. "Learning integrated inflation forecasts in a simple multi-agent macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    4. Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2025. "Inflation cycles: evidence from international data," BIS Working Papers 1264, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Leonardo Ciambezi & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2025. "Accounting for the Multiple Sources of Inflation: an Agent-Based Model Investigation," Working Papers 2025.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 811-832, August.
    7. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

  4. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2023. "Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Andreolli, Michele & Rey, Hélène, 2023. "The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 17826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bi, Huixin & Traum, Nora, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and local fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

  5. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Gomez Cram, Roberto, 2022. "Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Viewpoints on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 16034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    2. Juan Imbet & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2022. "Tweeting for Money: Social Media and Mutual Fund Flows," Working Papers 1366, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Aridor, Guy & Jiménez-Durán, Rafael & Levy, Ro'ee & Song, Lena, 2024. "The Economics of Social Media," CEPR Discussion Papers 18821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sui, Cong & Wang, Shuhan & Zheng, Wei, 2024. "Sentiment as a shipping market predictor: Testing market-specific language models," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Xu, Nancy R. & You, Yang, 2025. "Main Street’s Pain, Wall Street’s Gain," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Marco Grotteria & Max Miller & S.Lakshmi Naaraayanan, 2024. "Foreign influence in US politics," Discussion Papers 2024-12, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    7. Arteaga-Garavito, Maria Jose & Croce, Mariano M. & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2024. "When the markets get CO.V.I.D: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Macaulay, Alistair & Song, Wenting, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," MPRA Paper 113620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. J. Anthony Cookson & Corbin Fox & Javier Gil-Bazo & Juan Imbet & Christoph Schiller, 2024. "Social Media as a Bank Run Catalyst," Working Papers hal-04400382, HAL.
    10. Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "Public attention, sentiment and the default of Silicon Valley Bank," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    11. Cookson, J. Anthony & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William & Niessner, Marina, 2024. "The social signal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

  6. Bianchi, Francesco & Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2022. "Diagnostic Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 16005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
    2. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Matthew O'Brien & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 31578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jonathan J Adams, 2024. "Optimal Policy Without Rational Expectations: A Sufficient Statistic Solution," Working Papers 001011, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    5. Fontanier, Paul, 2025. "Optimal policy for behavioral financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. George-Marios Angeletos, 2023. "Comment on "Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations" 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, pages 348-362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024. "Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
    10. Na, Seunghoon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2025. "Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

  7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Cited by:

    1. Kevin L. Kliesen & David C. Wheelock, 2023. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Inflation: Lessons from Major US Wars," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(4), pages 234-260, October.
    2. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprise Shocks under Different Fiscal Regimes: A Panel Analysis of the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10627, CESifo.
    3. Serena Ionta & António Afonso & José Alves, 2025. "Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Gao, Han & Kulish, Mariano & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Uncertain Policy Regimes and Government Spending Effects," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    6. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0281, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Francesco Corsello & Matteo Gomellini & Dario Pellegrino, 2023. "Inflation and energy price shocks: lessons from the 1970s," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 790, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  8. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," NBER Working Papers 30727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Rodolfo & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Nuño, Galo & Paz, Peter, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 18874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2023. "Inflation targeting strategy and its credibility," Papers 2301.11207, arXiv.org.
    3. Jiang, Shifu, 2024. "The effect of monetary policies on inflation: A fiscal perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Moench, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working Papers 25-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2025-03 Classification-E5, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    6. Jonathon Hazell, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 277-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Xu, Nancy R. & You, Yang, 2025. "Main Street’s Pain, Wall Street’s Gain," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Guido Ascari & Jakob Grazzini & Dominico Massaro, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," Working Papers 812, DNB.
    9. Stéphane Dupraz & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2024. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability When Households are Not Ricardian," Working papers 981, Banque de France.
    10. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    11. Guillaume Plantin & Eric Mengus & Jean Barthelemy, 2022. "The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03792094, HAL.
    12. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields, and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "The Economics of Helicopter Money," Working Papers 8/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    14. Matthias Hansel, 2024. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation," Papers 2403.00471, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    15. Kwicklis, Noah, 2025. "Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Marco Casiraghi & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Olamide Harrison & Mr. Güneş Kamber, 2023. "Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2023/143, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    19. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Xin, Herbert W., 2024. "The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    20. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Carlos Goncalves & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé, 2023. "Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/260, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar Valencia, 2024. "Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises," IREA Working Papers 202416, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2024.
    22. David Andolfatto & Fernando M. Martin, 2025. "Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock," Working Papers 2025-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Jul 2025.
    23. Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo & Claudia Udroiu, 2024. "Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS105, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    24. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  9. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "A Structural Approach to High-Frequency Event Studies: The Fed and Markets as Case History," NBER Working Papers 30072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "China's footprint in global financial markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

  10. Bianchi, Francesco & Bianchi, Giada & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Palomeque & Juan de-Lucio, 2024. "The Soundtrack of a Crisis: More Positive Music Preferences During Economic and Social Adversity," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Celine Saul & Shannon Lange & Charlotte Probst, 2022. "Employment Status and Alcohol-Attributable Mortality Risk—A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-10, June.
    3. Qin, Meng & Wan, Yue & Dou, Junyi & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence: Intensifying or mitigating unemployment?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Víctor Giménez & Diego Prior & Claudio Thieme & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2021. "International comparisons of the COVID-19 pandemic management: What can be learned from activity analysis techniques?," Working Papers 2021/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Fiorini, Luciana C. & Maldonado, Wilfredo L., 2025. "Effects of wage compensation and containment policies on Labor supply during pandemics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Fischer, Kai & Reade, J. James & Schmal, W. Benedikt, 2021. "The long shadow of an infection: COVID-19 and performance at work," DICE Discussion Papers 368, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    7. Dong-Suk Chun & Keeyeon Ki-cheon Park & Jong-Min Kim, 2024. "From Disruption to Sustainability: The Event Industry’s Journey through the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Bogliacino, Francesco & codagnone, cristiano & Folkvord, F. & Lupiáñez-Villanueva, Francisco, 2022. "The impact of labour market shocks on mental health: evidence from the COVID-19 first wave," SocArXiv wx9d4, Center for Open Science.
    9. Fischer, Kai & Reade, J. James & Schmal, W. Benedikt, 2022. "What cannot be cured must be endured: The long-lasting effect of a COVID-19 infection on workplace productivity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Harran Al-Rahamneh & Lubna Arafa & Anas Al Orani & Rahaf Baqleh, 2021. "Long-Term Psychological Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Children in Jordan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-10, July.
    11. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2023. "Does global warming affect unemployment? International evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 991-1005.
    12. Athanasios Anastasiou & Nicholas Apergis & Athina Zervoyianni, 2024. "Pandemic, sentiments over COVID-19, and EU convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1683-1707, April.
    13. Baira Faulks & Song Yinghua, 2021. "The COVID-19 Crisis: Implications for the Development and Growth of Agricultural Sector in EU countries and Russia," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 37-46, April.
    14. Florin-Valeriu PANTELIMON & Bogdan-Stefan POSEDARU & Elena-Aura GRIGORESCU & Dimitrie-Daniel PLACINTA, 2021. "Labor Market Trends During The COVID-19 Pandemic," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(2), pages 50-63.

  11. Bianchi, Francesco & Ludvigson, Sydney & Ma, Sai, 2020. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15003, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann, 2023. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," ifo Working Paper Series 400, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Brodeur, Abel & Gray, David & Islam, Anik & Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen, 2020. "A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 601, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot, 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    4. Raffaella Giacomini & Katja Smetanina & Jason Lu, 2024. "Perceived shocks and impulse responses," IFS Working Papers WCWP21/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Robert Goodhead & Benedikt Kolb, 2025. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 173-198, January.
    6. Chenyu Hou, 2023. "Learning and Subjective Expectation Formation: A Recurrent Neural Network Approach," Discussion Papers dp23-13, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    7. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Bianchi, Francesco, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
    10. Lansing, Kevin J., 2024. "Replicating business cycles and asset returns with sentiment and low risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Han, Leyla Jianyu, 2025. "Announcements, expectations, and stock returns with asymmetric information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2022. "ESG scores and the response of the S&P 1500 to monetary and fiscal policy during the Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 446-456.
    15. Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "How Large is the Output Cost of Disinflation?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-079, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Bro, Jeppe & Eriksen, Jonas N., 2025. "Subjective expectations and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    17. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2021. "Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 9486, CESifo.
    18. Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar & Clark, Todd E., 2023. "What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    21. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    22. Wang, Xi & Liu, Ying & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Monetary policy dysregulation with data distortion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    23. Bouaddi, Mohammed & Moutanabbir, Khouzeima, 2023. "Rational distorted beliefs investor; which risk matters?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    24. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 29803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Mihai, Marius M. & Mansur, Iqbal, 2022. "Forecasting crash risk in U.S. bank returns—The role of credit booms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    26. Raffaella Giacomini & Jason Lu & Katja Smetanina, 2024. "Perceived shocks and impulse responses," CeMMAP working papers 21/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    27. Segarra-Blasco, Agustí & Teruel, Mercedes & Cattaruzzo, Sebastiano, 2021. "The economic reaction to non-pharmaceutical interventions during Covid-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 592-608.
    28. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    29. Wycliffe Obwori Alwago, 2023. "The nexus between health expenditure, life expectancy, and economic growth: ARDL model analysis for Kenya," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1064-1085, June.
    30. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    31. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    32. José, Barrales-Ruíz & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    33. Ajit Desai, 2023. "Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-16, Bank of Canada.

  12. Bianchi, Francesco & Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," CEPR Discussion Papers 14720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Brodeur, Abel & Gray, David & Islam, Anik & Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen, 2020. "A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 601, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Goodhart, Charles & Masciandaro, Donato & Ugolini, Stefano, 2021. "Pandemic Recession, Helicopter Money and Central Banking: Venice, 1630," CEPR Discussion Papers 15715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Richard Harrison, 2021. "Flexible inflation targeting with active fiscal policy," Bank of England working papers 928, Bank of England.
    4. Mario Alloza & Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez & Juan Luis Vega, 2021. "La reforma del marco de gobernanza de la política fiscal de la Unión Europea en un nuevo entorno macroeconómico," Occasional Papers 2121, Banco de España.
    5. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
    6. Pontus Braunerhjelm, 2022. "Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 963-983, February.
    7. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Christoffel, Kai & Faria, Thomas, 2021. "Assessing the fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2623, European Central Bank.
    8. Charles Goodhart & Donato Masciandaro & Stefano Ugolini, 2022. "Pandemic Recession and Helicopter Money: Venice, 1629--1631," Papers 2201.07181, arXiv.org.
    9. Ali, Amjad & Hasan, Zohaib Ul & Abbasi, Qasim & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad, 2023. "Business or Politics: Exploring the Determinants of Policy Mix in South Asia," MPRA Paper 120120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mario Alloza & Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez & Juan Luis Vega, 2021. "The reform of the european Union’s fiscal governance Framework in a new Macroeconomic environment," Occasional Papers 2121, Banco de España.
    11. Chandra Utama & Insukindro & Ardyanto Fitrady, 2022. "Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions In Indonesia During Periods Of Economic Turmoil In The Us: 2001q1-2014q4," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 97-116, June.
    12. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2021. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," NBER Working Papers 29266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    14. Volodymyr Martyniuk & Tomasz Wolowiec & Elena Mieszajkina, 2021. "Planning and Forecasting Customs Revenues to the State Budget: A Case Study of Ukraine," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 648-665.
    15. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Covid-19 Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Monetary Union," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, pages 233-266, Springer.
    16. Marco Bassetto & Gherardo Gennaro Caracciolo, 2021. "Monetary/Fiscal Interactions with Forty Budget Constraints," Working Papers 788, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Teles, Pedro & Tristani, Oreste, 2024. "The monetary financing of a large fiscal shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    18. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Choongryul Yang, 2021. "Redistribution and the Monetary–Fiscal Policy Mix," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Francesco Busato & Marina Albanese & Monica Varlese, 2022. "The impact of monetary policy shock on public debt: a DSGE approach," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(3), pages 17-28, July-Sept.
    21. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. Lemoine Matthieu & Jesper Lind, 2021. "Fiscal Stimulus in Liquidity Traps: Conventional or Unconventional Policies?," Working papers 799, Banque de France.
    23. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    24. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2023. "Can Passive Monetary Policy Decrease the Debt Burden?," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 23-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    25. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    26. Germaschewski, Yin & Wang, Shu-Ling, 2022. "Fiscal stabilization in high-debt economies without monetary independence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    27. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    28. Stephanie Ettmeier & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2020. "Active, or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy in the Great Inflation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1872, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    29. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    30. Billi , Roberto M. & Walsh, Carl E., 2022. "Seemingly Irresponsible but Welfare Improving Fiscal Policy at the Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 410, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    31. Andres Blanco & Pablo Ottonello & Tereza Ranošová, 2024. "The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2024-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    32. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Patrick J. Shultz & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," NBER Working Papers 29129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Deng, Jiapin, 2025. "Deleveraging backed by fiscal support: The monetary–fiscal policy mix during the deleveraging campaign in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    34. G. Bakam Fotso & E. I. Edoun & A. Pradhan & N. Sukdeo, 2022. "A framework for economic performance recovery in South Africa during the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 27(1), pages 401-422, January.
    35. Charles de Beauffort, 2024. "Looking Beyond the Trap: Fiscal Legacy and Central Bank Independence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 385-416, April.
    36. Matthew Abiodun Dada, 2020. "COVID-19 Outbreak and Behavioral Maladjustments: A Shift from a Highly Globalized World to a Strange World of Unique Isolationism," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(4), pages 43-58.
    37. Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo & Claudia Udroiu, 2024. "Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS105, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    38. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.

  13. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Tirskikh, Mikhail, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Freund, L. B & Rendahl, P., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2035, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Dario Bonciani & Joonseok Jason Oh, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    4. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    5. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    6. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.
    7. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR, Local Projections, and Vector Error Correction Model Tell Us in Tunisia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-74, March.
    9. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "Valuation Risk Revalued," Working Papers 1808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2025. "Regional trade policy uncertainty," Post-Print hal-05067044, HAL.
    11. Pinar, Mehmet & Karahasan, Burhan Can, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of EU cohesion policy on EU regional growth: The role of macroeconomic uncertainty," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    12. Gareth Lui-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2019. "Informality and Bank Stability," Working Papers 201903, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    13. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "Uncertainty-driven business cycles: assessing the markup channel," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145608, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Niki Papadopoulou, 2019. "On the Credit and Exchange Rate Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 2019-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    15. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    16. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 8985, CESifo.
    17. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England.
    18. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    19. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    20. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    21. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    22. Pham, Hai Ha & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2024. "Effects of wariness on economic growth in overlapping generations models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    23. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2020. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," International Finance Discussion Papers 1279, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    25. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    26. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    27. Olkhov, Victor, 2024. "Lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 121628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    29. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.

  14. Melosi, Leonardo & Bianchi, Francesco & Rottner, Matthias, 2019. "Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 14161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," Working Papers 784, DNB.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," NBER Working Papers 27112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2020. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2487, European Central Bank.
    5. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño Barrau & Omar Rachedi, 2024. "Inequality and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 1160, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2019. "Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target," Working Paper Series WP-2019-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2019. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 516, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 333-346, October.
    10. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Spencer D. Krane & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2023. "Learning Monetary Policy Strategies at the Effective Lower Bound with Sudden Surprises," Working Paper Series WP 2023-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Naoto Soma, 2021. "Parameter Uncertainty and Effective Lower Bound Risk," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Roussellet, Guillaume, 2025. "The term structure of macroeconomic risks at the effective lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    15. Ding, Shusheng & Zheng, Dandan & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Hervé Le Bihan & Magali Marx & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Inflation tolerance ranges in the new keynesian model," Working Papers 2142, Banco de España.
    17. Cristiano Cantore & Pascal Meichtry, 2024. "Unwinding Quantitative Easing: State Dependency and Household Heterogeneity," Working papers 955, Banque de France.
    18. Maih, Junior & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Kase, Hanno & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2022. "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Billi, Roberto M. & Söderström, Ulf & Walsh, Carl E., 2020. "The Role of Money in Monetary Policy at the Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 390, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    21. Hess T. Chung & Brian M. Doyle & James Hebden & Michael Siemer, 2020. "Considerations Regarding Inflation Ranges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    23. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel & Röttger, Joost & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "A comparison of monetary policy rules in an estimated TANK model," Technical Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Marco Bassetto & Gherardo Gennaro Caracciolo, 2021. "Monetary/Fiscal Interactions with Forty Budget Constraints," Working Papers 788, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    25. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    26. Martina Cecioni & Adriana Grasso & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2021. "Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. De Polis, Andrea & Melosi, Leonardo & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "The Taming of the Skew : Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1530, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    28. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    29. Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Financial crises and shadow banks: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 74-92.
    30. Ozili, Peterson K, 2024. "Inflation-targeting monetary policy framework in Nigeria: The Success Factors," MPRA Paper 120775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2021. "Anchoring of long-term inflation expectations: Do inflation target formulations matter?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242466, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    32. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    33. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    34. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    35. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    36. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Kurt See, 2021. "Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-16, Bank of Canada.
    37. Richard H. Clarida, 2022. "The Federal Reserve's New Framework: Context and Consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2022. "Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?," Working Paper Series WP 2022-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    39. Pang, Ke & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2024. "Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    40. Fernando M. Duarte & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Leonardo Melosi & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Strengthening the FOMC’s Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Jaanika Meriküll & Matthias Rottner, 2025. "Monetary policy and earnings inequality: inflation dependencies," BIS Working Papers 1271, Bank for International Settlements.

  15. Bianchi, Francesco & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2019. "Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter," CEPR Discussion Papers 14021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Alexopoulos & Xinfen Han & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Xu Zhang, 2022. "More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies," Staff Working Papers 22-20, Bank of Canada.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    3. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael, 2024. "Trust in central banks," Working Paper Series 3006, European Central Bank.
    5. Juan Imbet & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2022. "Tweeting for Money: Social Media and Mutual Fund Flows," Working Papers 1366, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    8. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Wabitsch, Alena, 2022. "Central bank communication with non-experts – A road to nowhere?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 69-85.
    10. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2020. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," Working Papers 2020-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Jan 2022.
    11. C. Richard Higgins & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2025. "Changes in central bank leadership and inflation dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1440-1473, April.
    12. Luis Guirola & Gonzalo Rivero, 2022. "Polarization contaminates the link with partisan and independent institutions: evidence from 138 cabinet shifts," Working Papers 2237, Banco de España.
    13. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy: the role of political parties’ stances in the ECB’s parliamentary hearings," Working Paper Series 2655, European Central Bank.
    14. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    15. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2021. "Political Voice on Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Parliamentary Hearings of the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21159, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Justin Svec & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2022. "Asserting Independence: Optimal Monetary Policy When the Central Bank and Political Authority Disagree," Working Papers 2201, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    17. Guillaume Plantin & Eric Mengus & Jean Barthelemy, 2022. "The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03792094, HAL.
    18. Liu, Yifan & Popova, Ivilina, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence and exchange rate volatility: High-frequency identification with Trump’s Fed tweets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Maxence Follot, 2024. "The impact of populism on central bank communication: Analyzing theoretical developments and the case of Hungary," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 21(1), pages 65-95, June.
    21. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
    22. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    23. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois, 2020. "Central banks in parliaments: a text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 2442, European Central Bank.
    24. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields, and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Zhang, Qisi & Frömmel, Michael & Baidoo, Edwin, 2024. "Donald Trump's tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    26. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Frederik Kurcz & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1138-1159, September.
    27. Garriga, Ana Carolina, 2025. "Revisiting Central Bank Independence in the World: An Extended Dataset," MPRA Paper 123578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. DiGiuseppe, Matthew & Garriga, Ana Carolina & Kern, Andreas, 2025. "Information, Party Politics, and Public Support for Central Bank Independence," SocArXiv trpgz_v1, Center for Open Science.
    29. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    31. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2020. "Tight and Loose, and Red and Blue: A 'Dance' of Macro Policies in the US," Working Papers 2020_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    32. Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2021. "Text-based recession probabilities," Working Paper Series 2516, European Central Bank.
    33. Almond, Douglas & Du, Xinming, 2020. "Later bedtimes predict President Trump’s performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    34. Jung, Alexander & Romelli, Davide & Farvaque, Etienne, 2025. "Do central bank reforms lead to more monetary discipline?," Working Paper Series 3049, European Central Bank.
    35. Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2024. "Toward a holistic approach to central bank trust," Discussion Papers 27/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. J. Anthony Cookson & Corbin Fox & Javier Gil-Bazo & Juan Imbet & Christoph Schiller, 2024. "Social Media as a Bank Run Catalyst," Working Papers hal-04400382, HAL.
    37. Antoine Camous & Dmitry Matveev, 2019. "Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-33, Bank of Canada.
    38. Aaron J. Amburgey, 2025. "How Election Shocks Impact Markets: Evidence from Sectoral Stock Prices," Papers 2504.02731, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    39. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    40. Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "Public attention, sentiment and the default of Silicon Valley Bank," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    41. Dall’Orto Mas, Rodolfo & Vonessen, Benjamin & Fehlker, Christian & Arnold, Katrin, 2020. "The case for central bank independence: a review of key issues in the international debate," Occasional Paper Series 248, European Central Bank.
    42. Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2023. "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 333-367, June.
    43. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    44. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus & Guillaume Plantin, 2020. "Public Liquidity Demand and Central Bank Independence," Working papers 747, Banque de France.
    45. Asei ITO & Jaehwan LIM & Hongyong ZHANG, 2022. "Catching the Political Leader's Signals: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," Discussion papers 22081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    46. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2021. "How does the financial market update beliefs about the real economy? Evidence from the oil market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 938-961, November.
    47. Heath,Rachel & Van Der Weide,Roy, 2024. "Gender, Social Support, and Political Speech : Evidence from Twitter," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10769, The World Bank.
    48. Carola Binder, 2021. "Presidential antagonism and central bank credibility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 244-263, July.
    49. de Boer, Jantke & Eichler, Stefan & Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2024. "Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    50. Cookson, J. Anthony & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William & Niessner, Marina, 2024. "The social signal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    51. Benjamín García & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024. "Central Bank Independence at Low Interest Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1003, Central Bank of Chile.
    52. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2025. "The partisanship of a central banker," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    53. Abdi, Farshid & Kormanyos, Emily & Pelizzon, Loriana & Getmansky, Mila & Simon, Zorka, 2021. "Market impact of government communication: The case of presidential tweets," SAFE Working Paper Series 314, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2021.
    54. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    55. Vijay S. Sampath & Arthur J. O’Connor & Calvester Legister, 2022. "Moral leadership and investor attention: An empirical assessment of the potus’s tweets on firms’ market returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 881-910, April.

  16. Bianchi, Francesco & Comin, Diego & Kung, Howard & Kind, Thilo & Matusche, Alexander, 2019. "Slow recoveries through fiscal austerity: New insights in the effects of fiscal austerity," ZEW policy briefs 2/2019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Fatás, Antonio & Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta, 2020. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 14531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  17. Bianchi, Francesco & Ilut, Cosmin & Schneider, Martin, 2017. "Uncertainty shocks, asset supply and pricing over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 11950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Saijo, Hikaru, 2017. "The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-25.
    2. Frank Kwabi & Andrews Owusu & Ernest Ezeani & Agyenim Boateng, 2024. "The impact of political uncertainty on the cost of capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1397-1429, May.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    5. Becard, Yvan & Gauthier, David, 2023. "Banks, nonbanks, and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Bassanin, Marzio & Faia, Ester & Patella, Valeria, 2021. "Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Timothy Cogley & Boyan Jovanovic, 2020. "Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 28026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yu, Haiyang & Chen, Haisong, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and green innovation: Does corporate social responsibility matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    9. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    10. Paweł Dziewulski & John K.‐H. Quah, 2024. "Comparative Statics With Linear Objectives: Normality, Complementarity, and Ranking Multi‐Prior Beliefs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 167-200, January.
    11. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Hikaru Saijo, 2018. "Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Working Papers 2020-02, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2025. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(3), pages 1375-1437.
    16. Mao, Jie & Shen, Guanxiong & Yan, Jingzhou, 2023. "A continuous-time macro-finance model with Knightian uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Plante, Michael & Richter, Alexander W., 2022. "Macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks: The perils of recursive orderings," CFS Working Paper Series 687, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Alonso, Irasema & Prado, Mauricio, 2015. "Ambiguity aversion, asset prices, and the welfare costs of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 78-92.
    20. Sadowski, Philipp & Sarver, Todd, 2024. "Adaptive preferences: An evolutionary model of non-expected utility and ambiguity aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    21. Altug, Sumru & Collard, Fabrice & Cakmakli, Cem & Mukerji, Sujoy & Ozsöylev, Han, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," TSE Working Papers 20-1107, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    22. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Tang, Yi, 2017. "Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 471-489.
    23. Takao Asano & Xiaojing Cai & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Time-varying ambiguity shocks and business cycles," KIER Working Papers 1094, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    24. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    25. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    26. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State dependence in labour market fluctuations," Working Papers 47, European Stability Mechanism.
    27. Tihana Škrinjarić & Zrinka Orlović, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Spillovers: Case of Selected CEE Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-33, July.
    28. Tong Zhang, 2019. "Haircut Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 124, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    30. Paciello, Luigi & Michelacci, Claudio, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 14557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Hikaru Saijo & Cosmin Ilut, 2016. "Learning, Confidence and Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 664, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Chatterjee, Pratiti, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, financial frictions, and business cycle asymmetries across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    33. Jiang, Lunan & Chen, Yinghui & Zhang, Lin, 2024. "Monetary policy shocks and firm investment decisions: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    34. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2020. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," International Finance Discussion Papers 1279, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Diego Comin & Ana Maria Santacreu & Mark Gertler & Phuong Ngo, 2018. "Stock Price Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 1147, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2016. "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 22225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Eran Hoffmann, 2018. "The Cyclical Composition of Startups," 2018 Meeting Papers 553, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    38. Asano, Takao & Osaki, Yusuke, 2021. "Optimal investment under ambiguous technology shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 304-311.
    39. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & André Cordeiro Valério, 2020. "Global shocks and emerging economies: disentangling the commodity roller coaster," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 623, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    40. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    41. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    42. Jun Gao & Sheng Zhu & Niall O’Sullivan & Meadhbh Sherman, 2019. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in UK Stock Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    43. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Ian Dew-Becker & Charles G. Nathanson, 2017. "Directed Attention and Nonparametric Learning," NBER Working Papers 23917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.
    47. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
    48. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    49. Ferreira, Mauro Sayar & Valério, André Cordeiro, 2023. "Global Shocks and Emerging Economies: Disentangling the Commodity Roller Coaster," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 76(3), February.
    50. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    51. Hening Liu & Yuzhao Zhang, 2022. "Financial Uncertainty with Ambiguity and Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2120-2140, March.
    52. Zhao, Zhiming & Qiu, Lingyan & Shu, Jianping, 2025. "The impact of write-down equity on bank stability under ambiguity aversion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    53. Chang, Chong-Chuo & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Mon, Khin Thiri, 2024. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the firm's working capital requirements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    54. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau & Daniel Greenwald, 2014. "The Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations," 2014 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    55. A. Ronald Gallant & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    56. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    57. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Online Appendix to "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"," Online Appendices 19-269, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    58. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2015. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," NBER Working Papers 21803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2023. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 689-716, May.
    60. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.

  18. Bianchi, Francesco & Nicolo, Giovanni, 2017. "A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 12130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Nils Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2022. "Limited Energy Supply, Sunspots, and Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 215, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2022. "Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment," Working Papers 346, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    4. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2022. "Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 312-348, February.
    5. Haque, Qazi & Pavlov, Oscar & Weder, Mark, 2025. "Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Qazi Haque & Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2024. "Superstar Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2024-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2025-03 Classification-E5, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2019. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland.
    9. Jonas E. Arias & Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2018. "Positive Trend In ation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0224, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    10. Roger E.A. Farmer & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    12. Nils M. Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2024. "Limited (Energy) Supply, Monetary Policy, and Sunspots," International Finance Discussion Papers 1395, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Sanjay R. Singh & Pablo Cuba-Borda, 2019. "Understanding Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 329, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Francisco Ilabaca & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles," Working Papers 192003, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    15. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    17. Eskelinen, Maria & Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Resolving new keynesian puzzles," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2024, Bank of Finland.
    18. Jinshun Wu & Luyao Wu, 2024. "Bayesian Local Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying DSGE Models: Allowing for Indeterminacy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2437-2476, October.
    19. Leland Farmer & Roger Farmer, 2022. "Zoomers and Boomers: Asset Prices and Intergenerational Inequality," NBER Working Papers 30419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Francisco E. Ilabaca & Greta Meggiorini, 2023. "Trend Inflation Under Bounded Rationality," Working Papers 23-09, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    21. Platonov, Konstantin & Goren, Amir, 2024. "Inflation targeting and output stabilization in an estimated monetary model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    22. Albonico, Alice & Ascari, Guido & Haque, Qazi, 2025. "Monetary policy in the euro area: Active or passive?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    23. Alice Albonico & Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque, 2020. "The (Ir)Relevance of Rule-of-Thumb Consumers for US Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2020-102, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Stabilizing Taylor rules and determinacy under unit root supply shocks: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    25. Thierry U. Kame Babilla, 2024. "Bank‐lending channel of monetary policy transmission in WAEMU: An estimated DSGE model approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1277-1300, April.
    26. Fabio Milani, 2025. "Inflation Tolerance Bands and Private Sector Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11910, CESifo.
    27. Loisel, Olivier, 2024. "Stabilization policy and lags," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    28. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Wille Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy"," Online Appendices 23-43, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    29. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2020. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2053-2083, December.
    30. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    31. Marco M. Sorge, 2020. "Arbitrary initial conditions and the dimension of indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(1), pages 363-372, June.
    32. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 25879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Alberto F. Boix & Adri'an Segura Moreiras, 2017. "Revisiting the determinacy on New Keynesian Models: A survey," Papers 1712.03681, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    34. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    35. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    36. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    37. Giovanni Nicolò, 2025. "US Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 195-213, March.
    38. Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "What Drives Low and Stable Inflation?," Working Papers 25-02, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Feb 2025.
    39. Cristiano Cantore & Vedanta Dhamija, 2024. "The Perils of a Dual Mandate," Economics Series Working Papers 1059, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    40. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 21-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    41. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2020. "Regularized Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2009.05875, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    42. Joshua Brault, 2024. "Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation," Staff Working Papers 24-13, Bank of Canada.
    43. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    44. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2020. "The Spectral Approach to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2007.13804, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.

  19. Bianchi, Francesco & Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Melissa van Rensburg, 2023. "Long-run trends in New Zealand’s real neutral interest rate," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an23/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    4. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2023. "The inverse Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process for parsimonious financial price modeling," Papers 2302.11423, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    5. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Yuriy Kitsul & Jamil Rahman & Beth Anne Wilson, 2024. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty and U.S. equity returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1401, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño Barrau & Omar Rachedi, 2024. "Inequality and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 1160, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    10. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1719-1753, June.
    12. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    13. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2022. "Central Bank Mandates and Monetary Policy Stances: through the Lens of Federal Reserve Speeches," Working Paper Series 417, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Sep 2024.
    14. Alessandro Casini, 2021. "Theory of Evolutionary Spectra for Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Inference in Possibly Misspecified and Nonstationary Models," Papers 2103.02981, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    15. Gardberg, Malin, 2020. "Aggregate Consumption and Wealth in the Long Run: The Impact of Financial Liberalization," Working Paper Series 1339, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    16. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Working Papers 2020-02, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    17. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    18. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    19. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 820, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    22. Plantin, Guillaume, 2023. "Asset bubbles and inflation as competing monetary phenomena," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    23. Bauer, Michael D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2022. "A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification," IMFS Working Paper Series 165, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    24. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    25. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    26. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Economic Policy - the Forth Dimension of the Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 112685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Chuanglian Chen & Xiaobin Liu & Jun Yu & Tao Zeng, 2024. "The Time-varying Zone-like and Asymmetric Preference of Central Banks: Evidence from China," Working Papers 202421, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    28. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
    29. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2019. "Effect of Uncertainty on U.S. Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Over Eighty Years of High-Frequency Data," Working Papers 201942, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    30. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 2119-2135, December.
    31. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    32. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
    33. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    34. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2018. "The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 88581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo (L.C.G.) Pozzi, 2018. "Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Sep 2018.
    36. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Liang, Chao & Cao, Yang, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the price bubbles in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    37. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.
    38. Markus Leippold & Hanlin Yang, 2023. "Mixed‐frequency predictive regressions with parameter learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1955-1972, December.
    39. Ayush Jha & Abootaleb Shirvani & Ali Jaffri & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2025. "Winners vs. Losers: Momentum-based Strategies with Intertemporal Choice for ESG Portfolios," Papers 2505.24250, arXiv.org.
    40. Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Predicting stock market movements with a time-varying consumption-aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 458-467.
    41. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Negin Sanadgol, 2023. "Investigating the monetary policy risk channel based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model: Empirical evidence from Iran," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-28, October.
    42. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    43. Stein, Tobias, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium with frequency-decomposed technical indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 6-28.
    44. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Variants of consumption‐wealth ratios and predictability of U.S. government bond risk premia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 661-674, June.
    45. Casini, Alessandro, 2023. "Theory of evolutionary spectra for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust inference in possibly misspecified and nonstationary models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 372-392.
    46. Ayush Jha & Abootaleb Shirvani & Ali Jaffri & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2025. "Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation," Papers 2505.12198, arXiv.org.
    47. Jang, Bosung & So, Inhwan, 2024. "Stock returns and monetary policy stance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 851-869.
    48. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    49. Chen, Deyang & Zeng, Zheyu & Chen, Yunyue, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of multiple climate policies on the chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    50. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    51. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Variants of Consumption-Wealth Ratios and Predictability of U.S. Government Bond Risk Premia: Old is still Gold," Working Papers 201912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    52. Christian Pierdzioch & Sebastian Rohloff & Roland von Campe, 2023. "The stance of U.S. monetary policy and the realized variance of gold-price returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 719-732.
    53. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    54. Wang, Jingya & Taylor, Alex P., 2024. "Predicting consumption-wealth ratio changes and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

  20. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," CEPR Discussion Papers 12164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," NBER Working Papers 27112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. William A. Barnett & Giovanni Bella & Taniya Ghosh & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2020. "Shilnikov Chaos, Low Interest Rates, and New Keynesian Macroeconomics," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202001, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    3. Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt," Staff Working Papers 21-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    5. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    6. Pontus Braunerhjelm, 2022. "Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 963-983, February.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Hasan, Zohaib Ul & Abbasi, Qasim & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad, 2023. "Business or Politics: Exploring the Determinants of Policy Mix in South Asia," MPRA Paper 120120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," Staff Working Papers 23-36, Bank of Canada.
    9. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(3), pages 315-332, July.
    10. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "The United States-Euro Area Growth Gap Puzzle," WIFO Working Papers 541, WIFO.
    11. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. John Cochrane, 2021. "Online Appendix to "A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt"," Online Appendices 20-44, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    13. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    14. Atanas Pekanov, 2019. "Policy Brief: Past and Present of EMU Reform. Reforming the Euro Area – The Road Not (Yet) Taken," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61850, October.
    15. Marco Bassetto & Gherardo Gennaro Caracciolo, 2021. "Monetary/Fiscal Interactions with Forty Budget Constraints," Working Papers 788, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    17. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally takes a back seat," CEPR Discussion Papers 18002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    19. Andryushin, S., 2024. "Interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia in conditions of fiscally-dominant regime: Risks and prospects," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 211-219.
    20. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "The Economics of Helicopter Money," Working Papers 8/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    21. Łyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna, 2020. "Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 296-310.
    22. Marco Bassetto & Luca Benzoni & Jason Hall, 2024. "On the Mechanics of Fiscal Inflations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 44(2), July.
    23. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Choongryul Yang, 2021. "Redistribution and the Monetary–Fiscal Policy Mix," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Francesco Busato & Marina Albanese & Monica Varlese, 2022. "The impact of monetary policy shock on public debt: a DSGE approach," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(3), pages 17-28, July-Sept.
    26. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    27. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    28. Vagliasindi,Maria & Gorgulu,Nisan, 2021. "What Have We Learned about the Effectiveness of Infrastructure Investment as a FiscalStimulus ? A Literature Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9796, The World Bank.
    29. Zavadska, Diana, 2018. "Innovative Environment In Ukraine: Formation And Evaluation Of Development In The Conditions Of The Balanced Economic Growth," EUREKA: Social and Humanities, Scientific Route OÜ, issue 2, pages 19-29.
    30. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Ding Liu, 2024. "Central Bank Independence, Government Debt and the Re-Normalization of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2024_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    31. Atanas Pekanov, 2020. "Die Europäische Währungsunion im Wandel," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 165-175, March.
    32. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    33. Kronick, Jeremy & Petersen, Luba, 2025. "Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    34. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    35. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    36. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
    37. Sachdeva, Paras & Ahmad, Wasim, 2024. "Fiscal and monetary policy regimes: New evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    38. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    39. Saurabh Sharma & Ipsita Padhi & Sarat Dhal, 2022. "Monetary-fiscal coordination: when, why and how?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 661-686, September.
    40. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2025. "Fiscal policy under secular stagnation: An optimal pump-priming strategy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    41. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2022. "Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?," Working Paper Series WP 2022-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    42. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2024. "Wells or Welfare? Macroeconomic implications of the Canadian oil subsidy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    43. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2025. "The partisanship of a central banker," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    44. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Ecb Helicopter Money: Economic And Political Economy Arithmetics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20138, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    45. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Coschignano, Eliana & Dirks, Maximilian & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Isaak, Niklas & Kirsch, Florian & Krause, Clara & Kotz, Stefan & Schacht-Picozzi, Philip & We, 2025. "Frühjahr 2025: Deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Leerlauf," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 76, pages 1-40.
    46. Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo & Claudia Udroiu, 2024. "Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS105, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    47. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    48. Francesco Bianchi & Ethan Ilzetzki, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Constraints on Policy: Fiscal Constraints," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    49. Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Central Banking and Macroeconomic Ideas: Economics, Politics and History," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1858, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    50. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt," NBER Working Papers 26745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  21. Francesco Bianchi, 2015. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A View from Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 21056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    2. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    3. Benjamin Knox, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Jan 2025.
    4. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Damette, Olivier & Shanafelt, David W., 2023. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Erik Kole & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Moments, Shocks and Spillovers in Markov-switching VAR Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-080/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Jan 2022.
    6. Da Wang & YingXue Zhou, 2024. "An innovative machine learning workflow to research China’s systemic financial crisis with SHAP value and Shapley regression," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-40, December.

  22. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Francesco Bianchi, 2015. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Asset Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

  23. Bianchi, Francesco, 2015. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 10520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kent Wang & Jiawei Li & Shicheng Huang, 2013. "Bad beta good beta, state-space news decomposition and the cross-section of stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 587-607, June.
    2. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    3. Huang, Wei & Liu, Qianqiu & Ghon Rhee, S. & Wu, Feng, 2012. "Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1492-1502.
    4. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    5. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    6. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    7. John Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews, 2015. "The Price Behavior of REITs Surrounding Extreme Market-Related Events," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 441-479, November.
    8. Galsband, Victoria, 2012. "Downside risk of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2379-2388.
    9. Ran Lu-Andrews & John L. Glascock, 2017. "Liquidity, Price Behavior, and Market-related Events," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 318-351, March.
    10. Julio Sarmiento & Mehdi Sadeghi & Juan S. Sandoval & Edgardo Cayon, 2021. "The application of proxy methods for estimating the cost of equity for unlisted companies: evidence from listed firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1009-1031, October.
    11. L’Huillier, Jean-Paul & Yoo, Donghoon, 2017. "Bad news in the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and other U.S. recessions: A comparative study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 79-98.
    12. Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.

  24. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2014. "Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 10291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    2. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
    3. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2020. "Financial shocks and the relative dynamics of tangible and intangible investment: Evidence from the euro area," Discussion Papers 39/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Vukoti, Marija & Zubairy, Sarah, 2023. "Innovation During Challenging Times," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. de Ridder, M., 2016. "Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1659, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    8. Toshihiro Okada, 2018. "International R&D Spillovers, Innovation by Learning from Abroad and Medium-Run Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series 183, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    9. Martin Wolf & Luca Fornaro, 2020. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 1214, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Olivier CARDI & Romain RESTOUT, 2023. "Why Hours Worked Decline Less After Technology Shocks?," Working Papers of BETA 2023-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Gustavo Iglésias, 2020. "Endogenous Growth and Monetary Policy: How Do Interest-Rate Feedback Rules Shape Nominal and Real Transitional Dynamics?," Working Papers w202003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    13. Uluc Aysun, 2019. "Volatility costs of R&D," Working Papers 2019-02, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    14. Dario Bonciani & David Gauthier & Derrick Kanngiesser, 2023. "Slow Recoveries, Endogenous Growth and Macro-prudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 698-715, December.
    15. Gauti Eggertsson & Neil Mehrotra & Sanjay Singh & Lawrence Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    17. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Pfeiffer, Philipp, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," MPRA Paper 77771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    47. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2020. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2401, European Central Bank.
    48. Afef Bouattour & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "Threshold effects of technology import on industrial employment: a panel smooth transition regression approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, December.
    49. Vaishali Garga & Sanjay R. Singh, 2019. "Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 19-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    50. Larsen, Rasmus Bisgaard & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "House prices, endogenous productivity, and the effects of government spending shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    51. Antonio Fatás & Sanjay R. Singh, 2023. "Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis," Working Paper Series 2023-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    52. Antonello d’Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing," Discussion Papers 1818, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    53. Cova, Pietro & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pagano, Patrizio & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Secular Stagnation, R&D, Public Investment, And Monetary Policy: A Global-Model Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1267-1287, July.
    54. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    55. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    56. Uluc Aysun & Zeynep Yom, 2019. "R&D, innovation spillover and business cycles," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 43, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    57. León-Ledesma, Miguel & Shibayama, Katsuyuki, 2023. "(Endogenous) Growth Slowdowns," CEPR Discussion Papers 18506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2021. "Deep recessions, slowing productivity and missing (dis-)inflation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    59. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Daichi SHIRAI, 2024. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Persistent Stagnation," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-001E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    60. David R. Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Kunal Sangani, 2024. "The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1065-1112.
    61. Florencia S. Airaudo & Hernán D. Seoane, 2021. "The Trend-cycle Connection," Working Papers 97, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    62. Eran Hoffmann, 2018. "The Cyclical Composition of Startups," 2018 Meeting Papers 553, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    63. Brianti, Marco & Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Information and communication technologies and medium-run fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    64. Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2019. "Testing a model of UK growth: A role for R&D subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    65. Beqiraj, Elton & Cao, Qingqing & Minetti, Raoul & Tarquini, Giulio, 2025. "Persistent slumps: Innovation and the credit channel of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    66. Brian Greaney & Conor Walsh, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Demand, Growth, and Deleveraging"," Online Appendices 21-132, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    67. Bianchi, Francesco & Comin, Diego & Kung, Howard & Kind, Thilo & Matusche, Alexander, 2019. "Slow recoveries through fiscal austerity: New insights in the effects of fiscal austerity," ZEW policy briefs 2/2019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    68. Omer Majeed & Jonathan Hambur & Robert Breunig, 2024. "Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data," CAMA Working Papers 2024-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    69. Marco Luca Pinchetti, 2017. "Creative Destruction Cycles: Schumpeterian Growth in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    70. Thomas Gries, 2020. "Income polarization and stagnation in astochastic model of growth: When the demand side matters," Working Papers CIE 132, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    71. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    72. Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1340, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Aysun, Uluc, 2024. "Technology diffusion and international business cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    74. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    75. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    76. Cristiana Benedetti-Fasil & Giammario Impullitti & Omar Licandro & Petr Sedlacek, 2021. "Heterogeneous Firms, R&D Policies and the Long Shadow of Business Cycles," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-04, Joint Research Centre.
    77. CHIAD, Faycal & Aouissi, Amine & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2021. "Financial Market Inclusion and Economic Growth: Evidence from Algeria," MPRA Paper 112034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    78. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Can growth stabilize debt? A fiscal theory perspective," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland, revised 2024.
    79. Shuonan Zhang, 2024. "State‐owned enterprises and entrusted lending: Economic growth and business cycles in China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 197-222, January.
    80. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    81. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela, 2022. "Endogenous technology, scarring and fiscal policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland.
    82. Uluc Aysun & Sami Alpanda, 2023. "The cyclicality of income distribution and innovation induced growth," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    83. Daisuke Ikeda & Takushi Kurozumi, 2015. "What Makes Post-Financial-Crisis Recoveries So Slow? An Investigation of Implications for Monetary Policy Conduct," Bank of Japan Research Laboratory Series 15-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    84. Zeynep Kabukcuoglu, 2019. "The cyclical behavior of R&D investment during the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 301-323, January.
    85. Diego Anzoategui & Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Joseba Martinez, 2016. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence," NBER Working Papers 22005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    86. Ryoji Ohdoi & Kazuo Mino & Yunfang Hu, 2023. "Credit constraints, firm selection, and endogenous growth: The international transmission of a credit crunch via trade," Discussion Paper Series 256-2, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Apr 2025.
    87. Yao Chen & Felix Ward, 2022. "Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Euro Area Growing Apart?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    88. Lee, Byoungchan, 2023. "Wealth Inequality and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 132-148.
    89. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    90. Christian Bayer & Fabio Stohler, 2025. "Can Public Debt Crowd in Private Investment?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_691, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    91. Bianca Barbaro & Giorgio Massari & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Who killed business dynamism in the U.S.?," Working Papers 494, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2022.
    92. Robin Döttling & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Intangible Investment," IMF Working Papers 2020/160, International Monetary Fund.
    93. Schmöller, Michaela, 2019. "Stagnant Wages, Sectoral Misallocation and Slowing Productivity Growth," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203598, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    94. Waugh, Michael E., 2018. "Comment on: Innovation, productivity, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 42-44.
    95. Consolo, Agostino & Cette, Gilbert & Bergeaud, Antonin & Labhard, Vincent & Osbat, Chiara & Kosekova, Stanimira & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Basso, Gaetano & Basso, Henrique & Bobeica, Elena & Ciapanna, Eman, 2021. "Digitalisation: channels, impacts and implications for monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 266, European Central Bank.
    96. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Shogo Nakano & Takahiro Yamanaka, 2024. "Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-19, Bank of Japan.
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    98. Uluc Aysun & Sewon Hur & Zeynep Yom, 2025. "Technology creation and monetary transmission," Working Papers 2025-02, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.

  25. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2014. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 9955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    3. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Post-Print hal-03530128, HAL.
    4. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    5. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    6. Pablo Garcia, 2021. "Learning, expectations and monetary policy," BCL working papers 153, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Gaballo, Gaetano & Ehrmann, Michael & Hoffmann, Peter & Strasser, Georg, 2019. "Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance," CEPR Discussion Papers 13977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Timothy Cogley & Boyan Jovanovic, 2020. "Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 28026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Spencer D. Krane & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2023. "Learning Monetary Policy Strategies at the Effective Lower Bound with Sudden Surprises," Working Paper Series WP 2023-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Hansen, Stephen & Mcmahon, Michael, 2011. "First impressions matter: signalling as a source of policy dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121736, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Florian Pradines-Jobet, 2021. "Cost of Banking Crises: Does the Policy Framework Matter?," Post-Print hal-03533204, HAL.
    13. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Ippei FUJIWARA & Yuichiro WAKI, 2016. "Private News and Monetary Policy: Forward guidance or the expected virtue of ignorance," Discussion papers 16027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    18. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    19. Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Signaling Effects of Monteray Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 830, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    22. Christian Matthes, 2015. "Figuring Out the Fed—Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, February.
    23. Klodiana Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Working papers 511, Banque de France.
    24. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 523-541.
    25. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

  26. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2014. "Online Appendix to "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR"," Online Appendices 13-184, Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "The nature of trade, global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 2007-2031, July.
    3. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1181-1208, October.
    4. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    6. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Auer, Raphael & Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 11905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ha,Jongrim & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Yilmazkuday,Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important Are Oil Prices ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10283, The World Bank.
    9. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    10. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    12. Jiang, Yanhui & Qu, Bo & Hong, Yun & Xiao, Xiyue, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness of inflation around the world: A time-varying approach from G7 and E7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 111-125.
    13. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    14. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Koursaros, Demetris & Otto, Glenn, 2024. "Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-184.
    17. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Christian Friedrich & Peter Selcuk, 2022. "The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 22-7, Bank of Canada.
    20. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache, 2019. "Domestic and global determinants of inflation: evidence from expectile regression," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1225, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    22. Enrique Martínez García, 2017. "Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Globalization Institute Working Papers 321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," NBER Working Papers 23246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    25. Auer, Raphael & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 19226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    90. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    91. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    92. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    93. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    94. Kaan Masatci & Asuman Oktayer, 2022. "The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 375-394, June.
    95. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel, 2020. "Interest rate pegs and the reversal puzzle: On the role of anticipation," Discussion Papers 50/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    96. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2023. "Can Passive Monetary Policy Decrease the Debt Burden?," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 23-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    97. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    98. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "State dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assests," Working Paper Research 374, National Bank of Belgium.
    99. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    100. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Estimating DSGE models with Zero Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-32B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    101. Pappa, Evi & Molteni, Francesco, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 12541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    102. Andrew Binning & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2019. "Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model," Working Papers No 09/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    103. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    104. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    105. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    106. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Uncertain Policy Regimes and Government Spending Effects," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    107. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.
    108. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting," Papers 2010.14979, arXiv.org.
    109. Sebasti√°n Cadavid S√°nchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    110. Carl E. Walsh, 2022. "Inflation Surges and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    111. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0281, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    112. Gregor Boehl & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2021. "The Hockey Stick Phillips Curve and the Zero Lower Bound," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_266, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    113. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.
    114. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    115. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    116. Francesco Bianchi & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi, 2021. "Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 453, pages 1-8, April.
    117. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    118. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    119. Charles de Beauffort & Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou, 2024. "Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios," Working Paper Research 450, National Bank of Belgium.
    120. José, Barrales-Ruíz & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    121. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    122. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    123. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2022. "Multiplicity in New Keynesian Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 505-521, July.
    124. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    125. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    126. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt," NBER Working Papers 26745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    127. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    128. Utama, Chandra, 2020. "The Effect of Twin-shock on Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 137-147.

  28. Bianchi, Francesco, 2013. "Methods for Measuring Expectations and Uncertainty in Markov-Switching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9705, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Escaping the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Willi Mutschler, 2014. "Identification of DSGE Models - the Effect of Higher-Order Approximation and Pruning," CQE Working Papers 3314, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    6. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Marco Airaudo & Ina Hajdini, 2021. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria In Markov Regime Switching Models And Inflation Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1401-1430, November.
    8. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    9. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    10. Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," Research Working Paper RWP 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: A new-Keynesian interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 277-296.
    12. Erik Kole & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Moments, Shocks and Spillovers in Markov-switching VAR Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-080/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Jan 2022.
    13. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    15. José, Barrales-Ruíz & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

  29. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 13-14, Duke University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Zha, Tao & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & , & Foerster, Andrew, 2013. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Spencer D. Krane & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2023. "Learning Monetary Policy Strategies at the Effective Lower Bound with Sudden Surprises," Working Paper Series WP 2023-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Bianchi, Francesco, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    8. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    9. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    11. Harrison, Ricahrd, 2014. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Andrew Foerster & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Learning About Regime Change," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1829-1859, November.

  30. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2016. "Revisiting Three Intellectual Pillars of Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 213-238, Spring/Su.
    5. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    6. Arpita Chatterjee, 2014. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Comovement: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Discussion Papers 2014-19, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    7. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.

  31. Ilut, Cosmin & Bianchi, Francesco, 2013. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 9645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    2. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    3. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Francesco Bianchi, 2015. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Asset Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Luchelle Soobyah & Mulalo Mamburu & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Is South Africa falling into a fiscal dominant regime," Working Papers 11046, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Begona Dominguez & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2019. "The effects of secondary markets for government bonds on inflation dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 249-273, April.
    7. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Gustavo Iglésias, 2020. "Endogenous Growth and Monetary Policy: How Do Interest-Rate Feedback Rules Shape Nominal and Real Transitional Dynamics?," Working Papers w202003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yoosoon Chang & Junior Maih & Fei Tan, 2018. "State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching," Working Papers No 9/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2017. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Working Paper Series 2072, European Central Bank.
    13. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    14. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    15. Ali, Amjad & Hasan, Zohaib Ul & Abbasi, Qasim & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad, 2023. "Business or Politics: Exploring the Determinants of Policy Mix in South Asia," MPRA Paper 120120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chemla, Gilles & Hennessy, Christopher, 2019. "Equilibrium Counterfactuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 14146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2024. "Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers 2410, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    19. Anis Foresto & Monique Reid & Jeffrey Rakgalakane, 2025. "State dependence of the Phillips curve what does this mean for monetary policy," Working Papers 11080, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Assessing Expectations as a Monetary/Fiscal State-Dependent Phenomenon," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    21. Chandra Utama & Insukindro & Ardyanto Fitrady, 2022. "Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions In Indonesia During Periods Of Economic Turmoil In The Us: 2001q1-2014q4," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 97-116, June.
    22. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon & Freier, Maximilian, 2024. "Introducing Textual Measures of Central Bank Policy-Linkages Using ChatGPT," SocArXiv 78wnp, Center for Open Science.
    23. Stéphane Dupraz & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2024. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability When Households are Not Ricardian," Working papers 981, Banque de France.
    24. Best, Gabriela & Hur, Joonyoung, 2019. "Bad luck, bad policy, and learning? A Markov-switching approach to understanding postwar U.S. macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-78.
    25. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    26. Viana, Jr., Dante Baiardo C. & Lourenço, Isabel & Black, Ervin L. & Martins, Orleans Silva, 2023. "Macroeconomic instability, institutions, and earnings management: An analysis in developed and emerging market countries," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    27. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2023. "Gambling to preserve price (and fiscal) stability," Working Paper Series 2844, European Central Bank.
    28. John Cochrane, 2021. "Online Appendix to "A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt"," Online Appendices 20-44, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    29. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    30. Chernov, Mikhail & Schmid, Lukas & Schneider, Andres, 2016. "A Macrofinance View of U.S. Sovereign CDS Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 11576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    32. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    33. Ascari, Guido & Beck-Friis, Peder & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    34. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    35. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "Extreme inflation and time-varying expected consumption growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 334, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    36. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Working Paper 14-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    37. Francisco Ilabaca & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles," Working Papers 192003, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    38. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    39. Kloosterman, Roben & Bonam, Dennis & van der Veer, Koen, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    40. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields, and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    41. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprise Shocks under Different Fiscal Regimes: A Panel Analysis of the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10627, CESifo.
    42. Saito, Makoto & 齊藤, 誠, 2020. "Long-run mild deflation under fiscal unsustainability in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 703, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    43. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    44. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally takes a back seat," CEPR Discussion Papers 18002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    46. Yoosoon Chang & Boreum Kwak, 2017. "U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    47. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2020. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Discussion Papers 51/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    48. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    49. Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2013. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    50. Gomes, Pedro & Seoane, Hernán D., 2024. "Made in Europe: Monetary–Fiscal policy mix with financial frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    51. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
    52. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon, 2024. "How Central Bank Independence Shapes Monetary Policy Communication: A Large Language Model Application," SocArXiv yrhka, Center for Open Science.
    53. Xiaoshan Che & Eric M. Leepe & Campbell Leith, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - conflict or cooperation?," Working Papers 2015_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    54. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    55. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    56. Hao Jin & Chen Xiong, 2020. "Fiscal Stress and Monetary Policy Stance in Oil-Exporting Countries," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    57. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2020. "Tight and Loose, and Red and Blue: A 'Dance' of Macro Policies in the US," Working Papers 2020_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    58. Xiaoshan Chen & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2022. "Strategic interactions in U.S. monetary and fiscal policies," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 593-628, May.
    59. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    60. Solikin M. Juhro & Denny Lie & Atet Rizki Wijoseno & Mohammad Aly Fikry, 2022. "Fiscal Policy Stance, Central Bank Digital Currency, And The Optimal Monetary-Macroprudential Policy Mix," Working Papers WP/01/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    61. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    62. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    63. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    64. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    66. Kronick, Jeremy & Petersen, Luba, 2025. "Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    67. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2023. "Can Passive Monetary Policy Decrease the Debt Burden?," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 23-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    68. Dhital, Saroj & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Haslag, Joseph H., 2021. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a frictional model of fiat money, nominal public debt and banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    69. Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2023. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interactions in Nigeria and South Africa: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 21-31, September.
    70. Gilles Chemla & Christopher Hennessy, 2021. "Equilibrium Counterfactuals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 639-669, May.
    71. Andrew Binning & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2019. "Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model," Working Papers No 09/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    72. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    73. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    74. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2021. "Consumers' updating, policy shocks and public debt: An empirical assessment of state dependencies," Arbeitspapiere 69, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    75. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    76. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    77. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Uncertain Policy Regimes and Government Spending Effects," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    78. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2018. "High trend inflation and passive monetary detours," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland.
    79. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.
    80. Sebasti√°n Cadavid S√°nchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    81. De Luigi, Clara & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Debt regimes and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 218-238.
    82. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0281, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    83. Giovanni Nicolò, 2025. "US Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 195-213, March.
    84. Deng, Jiapin, 2025. "Deleveraging backed by fiscal support: The monetary–fiscal policy mix during the deleveraging campaign in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    85. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2022. "Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?," Working Paper Series WP 2022-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    86. Haydory Akbar Ahmed, 2020. "Monetary base and federal government debt in the long‐run: A non‐linear analysis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 167-184, April.
    87. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    88. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    89. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    90. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal policy and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    91. Jochen Mankart & Romanos Priftis & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "The long and short of financing government spending," Working Paper Research 418, National Bank of Belgium.
    92. Charles de Beauffort & Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou, 2024. "Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios," Working Paper Research 450, National Bank of Belgium.
    93. Wang, Ling, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions under asset purchase programs: Some comparative evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 208-221.
    94. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    95. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    96. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    97. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.
    98. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt," NBER Working Papers 26745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    99. Guo, Taolei & Liu, Pei & Wang, Chao & Xie, Jingci & Du, Jianbang & Lim, Ming K., 2023. "Toward sustainable port-hinterland transportation: A holistic approach to design modal shift policy mixes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

  32. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," NBER Working Papers 27112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    4. Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," IMFS Working Paper Series 60, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 27004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Escaping the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
    8. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Troy Davig & Andrew T. Foerster, 2014. "Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs," Research Working Paper RWP 14-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-184.
    13. John Cochrane, 2021. "Online Appendix to "A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt"," Online Appendices 20-44, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    14. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Ascari, Guido & Beck-Friis, Peder & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Pamfili Antipa, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Value of Money: Lessons from the British Paper Pound, 1797-1821," Working papers 466, Banque de France.
    17. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2022. "Cheap Talk in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 661-691, September.
    18. Marco Bassetto & Gherardo Gennaro Caracciolo, 2021. "Monetary/Fiscal Interactions with Forty Budget Constraints," Working Papers 788, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    20. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    21. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    22. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    23. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    24. Marco Bassetto & Luca Benzoni & Jason Hall, 2024. "On the Mechanics of Fiscal Inflations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 44(2), July.
    25. Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    26. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux," Economics Series Working Papers 788, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    27. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 19475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    29. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Nicolas Groshenny, 2015. "Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics in U.S. Recessions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1195, The University of Melbourne.
    30. David S. Miller, 2021. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations and Currency Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Moises S. Andrade & Tiago Berriel, 2016. "Is There an Output Free Lunch for Fiscal Inationary Policies?," Textos para discussão 650, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    32. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    33. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Signaling Effects of Monteray Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 830, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," NBER Working Papers 23605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Scott R Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J Terry, 2024. "Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 720-747.
    36. Seonghoon Cho, 2016. "Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 182-200, July.
    37. Hollmayr, Josef, 2018. "Fiscal regimes and the (non)stationarity of debt," Discussion Papers 11/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    38. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2017. "Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks: Learning from Heterogeneous Responses on a Panel of EU Countries," Working Papers 2017/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    39. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2018. "High trend inflation and passive monetary detours," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland.
    40. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Fan, Jingwen, 2014. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10240, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2019. "The Government Risk Premium Puzzle," Research Papers 3831, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    42. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks," Working Paper 15-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    43. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    44. Pamfili Antipa, 2014. "How Fiscal Policy Affects the Price Level: Britain s First Experience with Paper Money," Working papers 525, Banque de France.
    45. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt," NBER Working Papers 26745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  33. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Inflationary Sentiments and Monetary Policy Communcation," 2012 Meeting Papers 893, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4294, CESifo.
    2. Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.

  34. Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 10-39, Duke University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," Working Papers hal-03393181, HAL.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.
    6. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    7. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458503, HAL.
    8. Vasco Curdia & Daria Finocchiaro, 2012. "Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Leeper, Eric M., 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus," CEPR Discussion Papers 7509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2024. "Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes," Working Papers No 04/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Ms. Susan S. Yang & Ms. Nora Traum, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S," IMF Working Papers 2010/243, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2017. "Should the ECB coordinate EMU fiscal policies?," Working Papers 2018_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    14. Zamarripa, Rene, 2024. "Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a small open economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    15. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2019. "Growth, slowdowns, and recoveries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 47-63.
    16. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 211-230, February.
    17. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    19. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Escaping the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. Fabrizio Almeida Marodin & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: À Markov Switching DSGE Estimation for the Inflation Targeting Period," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 36-66, March.
    24. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    25. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 333-346, October.
    26. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    27. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    28. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa Sameeh & Canepa, Alessandra & Muchova, Eva, 2024. "Inflation Synchronization and Shock Transmission Between the Eurozone and the Non-Euro CEE Economies: A Wavelet Quantile Var Approach," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202412, University of Turin.
    29. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes & Fabio Verona, 2019. "Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies," Working Paper 19-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    30. Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    32. Zha, Tao & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & , & Foerster, Andrew, 2013. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    34. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "An empirical assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 95-115.
    35. Falck, E. & Hoffmann, M. & Hürtgen, P., 2021. "Disagreement about inflation expectations and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 15-31.
    36. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    37. Jean Barthelemy & Seonghoon Cho & Magali Marx, 2024. "A Unified Approach to Determinacy Conditions with Regime Switching," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    38. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
    39. Chen, Han, 2017. "The effects of the near-zero interest rate policy in a regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 176-192.
    40. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    41. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    42. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2022. "Central Bank Mandates and Monetary Policy Stances: through the Lens of Federal Reserve Speeches," Working Paper Series 417, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Sep 2024.
    43. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Bianchi, Francesco, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "The Swings Of U.S. Inflation And The Gibson Paradox," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 799-820, April.
    45. George Kapetanios & Stephen Millard & Katerina Petrova & Simon Price, 2019. "Time-varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," Bank of England working papers 789, Bank of England.
    46. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Groshenny, Nicolas & Haque, Qazi & Weder, Mark, 2017. "Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 83-95.
    47. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    48. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation," Working Paper 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    49. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2014. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Working Paper Series 1728, European Central Bank.
    50. Michal Franta & Jan Vlcek, 2024. "Wage-Price Spirals: A Risk-Based Approach," Working Papers 2024/1, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    51. Christopher A. Sims, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 59-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    53. Foerster, Andrew T., 2015. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents׳ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 191-207.
    54. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    55. Best, Gabriela & Hur, Joonyoung, 2019. "Bad luck, bad policy, and learning? A Markov-switching approach to understanding postwar U.S. macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-78.
    56. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    57. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 769, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    58. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-21, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    59. Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Regime-Switching And Levy Jump Dynamics In Option-Adjusted Spreads," MPRA Paper 94154, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2019.
    60. Justin Svec & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2022. "Asserting Independence: Optimal Monetary Policy When the Central Bank and Political Authority Disagree," Working Papers 2201, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    61. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih, 2016. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Paper 2016/12, Norges Bank.
    62. Julien Albertini & Stéphane Moyen, 2020. "A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers halshs-03067554, HAL.
    63. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    66. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting with Instabilities: an Application to DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 201523, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    67. Marco Airaudo & Ina Hajdini, 2021. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria In Markov Regime Switching Models And Inflation Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1401-1430, November.
    68. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
    69. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
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    79. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
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    87. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    88. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.
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    106. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    107. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    108. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    109. Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    110. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2019. "Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?," Post-Print hal-03384685, HAL.
    111. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CARF F-Series CARF-F-457, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    112. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    113. Cho, Seonghoon, 2021. "Determinacy and classification of Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    114. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
    115. Li, Bing & Pei, Pei & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Financial distress and fiscal inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    116. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    117. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    118. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
    119. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    120. Ruoyun Mao & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2023. "Can Passive Monetary Policy Decrease the Debt Burden?," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 23-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    121. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Schorfheide, Frank & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    122. Aeimit Lakdawala & Davide Debortoli, 2013. "How credible is the Federal Reserve?:A structural estimation of policy re-optimizations," 2013 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    123. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
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    129. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    130. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
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    133. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
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    137. Ilabaca, Francisco & Meggiorini, Greta & Milani, Fabio, 2020. "Bounded rationality, monetary policy, and macroeconomic stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
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    139. Andrei A. Sirchenko, 2017. "An endogenous regime-switching model of ordered choice with an application to federal funds rate target," 2017 Papers psi424, Job Market Papers.
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    142. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal policy and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    143. Fatemi, Ali & Fooladi, Iraj & Zhao, Yonggan & Ma, Zongming, 2024. "On the superior performance of SRI funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 567-581.
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    145. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks," Working Paper 15-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    146. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Forecast uncertainty in the neighborhood of the effective lower bound: How much asymmetry should we expect?," Working Paper 2016/13, Norges Bank.
    147. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez & Sacnicte Valdez Del Rio, 2021. "Interaction of Economic Policy. Lessons on Social Welfare and Risk Premium," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(1), pages 7-29.
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    149. Francesco Amodio, 2012. "Hard to Forget: Long-lasting E ffects of Social Capital Accumulation Shocks," AICCON Working Papers 105-2012, Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit.
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    151. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2020. "Reading a central banker's preference: A non parametric regression approach," Discussion Paper Series 2007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    152. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
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  35. Francesco Bianchi & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 363, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2018. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions across Time and Space," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 167-227, June.
    2. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    4. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    5. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," CEF.UP Working Papers 1004, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters, 2018. "Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rate Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-45, July.
    8. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    9. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    10. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    11. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    12. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.

Articles

  1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Diagnostic Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 129-162.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Francesco Bianchi & Roberto Gómez-Cram & Howard Kung, 2024. "Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Viewpoints on Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2244-2272.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2127-2179.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2023. "The origins and effects of macroeconomic uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 855-896, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Bianchi, Francesco & Bianchi, Giada & Song, Dongho, 2023. "The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Francesco Bianchi & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi, 2021. "Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 453, pages 1-8, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  11. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "A generalized approach to indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 843-868, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2019. "Growth, slowdowns, and recoveries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 47-63.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-22.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 187-202, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 717-756, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Evolving Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 167-172, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," Working Papers hal-03393181, HAL.
    3. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    4. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Monetary policy, financial uncertainty, and secular stagnation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    6. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    7. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    9. Troy Davig & Andrew T. Foerster, 2014. "Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs," Research Working Paper RWP 14-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
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    4. Alessia Paccagnini, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure During The Great Moderation," Open Access publications 10197/7324, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    7. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Kwangyong Park, 2020. "The Excess Sensitivity of Long-term Interest rates and Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 2020-29, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    9. Mardi Dungey & M.Tugrul Vehbi, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," CAMA Working Papers 2011-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Luca Gambetti & Christoph Görtz & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 139-164, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    12. Jamie L. Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Working Papers No 11/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    29. Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Working Papers 10-40, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    30. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Estimation and inference of FAVAR models," MPRA Paper 60960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    32. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Sheheryar Malik & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Bank of England working papers 518, Bank of England.
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    35. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
    36. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    37. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    39. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    40. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Han, Xu, 2015. "Tests for overidentifying restrictions in Factor-Augmented VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 394-419.
    42. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    43. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    44. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    45. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
    46. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    47. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.
    48. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2014. "Online Appendix to "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR"," Online Appendices 13-184, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    49. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    50. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    51. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
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    53. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
    54. Alina Barnett & Jan J J Groen & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.
    55. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin sola & Constantino Hevia & Fabio Spagnolo, 2012. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    56. Yonas Khanna & André Lucas & Norman Seeger, 2025. "Measuring and Explaining the CDS-Bond Basis Term-Structure Shape and Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-037/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    57. Vladislav Abramov, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Russian Monetary Policy Shocks on the Eurasian Economic Union," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps60, Bank of Russia.
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    61. Daniel R. Kowal & Antonio Canale, 2021. "Semiparametric Functional Factor Models with Bayesian Rank Selection," Papers 2108.02151, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
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    63. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
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Software components

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Chapters

  1. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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