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Monetary-fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries

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  • Kliem, Martin
  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander
  • Sarferaz, Samad

Abstract

We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using crosscountry data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary-fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S. and Italy with evidence obtained from simple regression models and a time-varying VAR. We find that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central bank and responsible fiscal policy and more pronounced in times of high fiscal budget deficits and accommodative monetary authorities. In a second step, we use an estimated DSGE model to interpret the low-frequency measure structurally and to illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest that switches in the monetary-fiscal policy interaction and accompanying variations in the propagation of structural shocks can well account for changes in the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2015. "Monetary-fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," Discussion Papers 42/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:422015
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    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices in the United States," Working Papers 817, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2305 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-Varying VAR; Inflation; Public Deficits;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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