IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.12198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Ayush Jha
  • Abootaleb Shirvani
  • Ali Jaffri
  • Svetlozar T. Rachev
  • Frank J. Fabozzi

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the Heston-Nandi framework to a multivariate setting and apply it to 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. The model jointly supports three core financial applications: dynamic portfolio optimization, wealth path simulation, and option pricing. Closed-form solutions are derived for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) investor's intertemporal asset allocation, and we implement a forward-looking risk-adjusted performance comparison against Merton-style constant strategies. Using the model's conditional volatilities, we also construct implied volatility surfaces for European options, capturing skew and smile features. Empirically, we document substantial wealth-equivalent utility losses from ignoring time-varying correlation and tail risk. These findings underscore the value of a unified econometric framework for analyzing joint asset dynamics and for managing portfolio and derivative exposures under non-Gaussian risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayush Jha & Abootaleb Shirvani & Ali Jaffri & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2025. "Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation," Papers 2505.12198, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.12198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.12198
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiuling Hua & Tingfeng Jiang & Zhang Cheng, 2018. "Option pricing based on hybrid GARCH-type models with improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1501-1515, September.
    2. Lars Stentoft, 2008. "American Option Pricing Using GARCH Models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 540-582, Fall.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    4. Giovanni Barone Adesi & Robert F. Engle & Loriano Mancini, 2014. "A GARCH Option Pricing Model with Filtered Historical Simulation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giovanni Barone Adesi (ed.), Simulating Security Returns: A Filtered Historical Simulation Approach, chapter 4, pages 66-108, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Gu�gan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option pricing for GARCH-type models with generalized hyperbolic innovations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 1079-1094, April.
    6. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
    7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    8. Kanniainen, Juho & Lin, Binghuan & Yang, Hanxue, 2014. "Estimating and using GARCH models with VIX data for option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 200-211.
    9. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-91, March.
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2013. "Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1963-2006.
    11. Lehar, Alfred & Scheicher, Martin & Schittenkopf, Christian, 2002. "GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 323-345, March.
    12. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    13. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Valery Polkovnichenko, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices with Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 531-566.
    14. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    15. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    16. Venter, Pierre J & Maré, Eben, 2022. "Price discovery in the volatility index option market: A univariate GARCH approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    17. Byun, Suk Joon & Jeon, Byoung Hyun & Min, Byungsun & Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2015. "The role of the variance premium in Jump-GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 38-56.
    18. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2309-2340, December.
    19. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    20. Escobar-Anel, Marcos & Yang, Yu-Jung & Zagst, Rudi, 2025. "Multivariate Affine GARCH in portfolio optimization. Analytical solutions and applications," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel, 2002. "Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 321-342, August.
    22. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
    23. Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2005. "A GARCH option pricing model with [alpha]-stable innovations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 201-209, May.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    25. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    26. Jinji Hao & Jin E. Zhang, 2013. "GARCH Option Pricing Models, the CBOE VIX, and Variance Risk Premium," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 556-580, June.
    27. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    28. Christophe Chorro & Rahantamialisoa H Fanirisoa, 2022. "Discriminating Between GARCH Models for Option Pricing by Their Ability to Compute Accurate VIX Measures [Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Non-Monotonic Pricing Kernels]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 902-941.
    29. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    30. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    31. Alexandru Badescu & Zhenyu Cui & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2017. "Non-affine GARCH Option Pricing Models, Variance-Dependent Kernels, and Diffusion Limits," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 602-648.
    32. Chen, An-Sing & Leung, Mark T., 2005. "Modeling time series information into option prices: An empirical evaluation of statistical projection and GARCH option pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2947-2969, December.
    33. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
    34. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option Pricing for GARCH-type Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," Post-Print hal-00511965, HAL.
    35. Wenjun Zhang & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "GARCH Option Pricing Models and the Variance Risk Premium," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    36. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option Pricing for GARCH-type Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00511965, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augustyniak, Maciej & Badescu, Alexandru & Bégin, Jean-François & Jayaraman, Sarath Kumar, 2025. "A general option pricing framework for affine fractionally integrated models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    4. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    5. Daniel Giamouridis & Athanasios Sakkas & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 254-291, March.
    6. Papantonis, Ioannis, 2016. "Volatility risk premium implications of GARCH option pricing models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 104-115.
    7. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    10. Ibarra, Raul, 2013. "A spatial dominance approach to evaluate the performance of stocks and bonds: Does the investment horizon matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 429-439.
    11. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    12. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    13. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    14. Weinbaum, David, 2005. "Subsistence consumption, habit formation and the demand for long-term bonds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 273-287.
    15. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    16. Guiyuan Ma & Song-Ping Zhu, 2022. "Revisiting the Merton Problem: from HARA to CARA Utility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 651-686, February.
    17. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
    18. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
    19. Klos, Alexander & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Über kurz oder lang : welche Rolle spielt der Anlagehorizont bei Investitionsentscheidungen?," Papers 02-49, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    20. Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 30-44, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.12198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.