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What Hundreds of Economic News Events Say About Belief Overreaction in the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bianchi
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson
  • Sai Ma

Abstract

We measure the nature and severity of a variety of belief distortions in market reactions to hundreds of economic news events using a new methodology that synthesizes estimation of a structural asset pricing model with algorithmic machine learning to quantify bias. We estimate that investors systematically overreact to perceptions about multiple fundamental shocks in a macro-dynamic system, generating asymmetric compositional effects when several counteracting shocks occur simultaneously in real-world events. We show that belief overreaction to all shocks can lead the market to over- or underreact to events, amplifying or dampening volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2024. "What Hundreds of Economic News Events Say About Belief Overreaction in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 32301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32301
    Note: AP EFG ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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