IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/2609.html

GVC participation and inflation in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (University Jaume I and INTECO, Department of Economics, Campus de Riu Sec, E-12080 Castellón, Spain.)

  • Antonia López-Villavicencio

    (Department of Applied Economics, Building B, Office: B3-052, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (niversity of València and INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II, Av. dels Tarongers, s/n Eastern Department Building, E-46022 Valencia, Spain.)

Abstract

This paper examines how participation in global value chains (GVCs) shapes in- flation in the European Union over 1995–2023. Using local projections, we trace the dynamic response of inflation to total, backward and forward GVC shocks, at the aggregate level and across core, peripheral and CEEC economies. GVC integra- tion is, on average, disinflationary, supporting the discipline-on-prices hypothesis. The aggregate result, however, masks substantial heterogeneity: backward sourcing dampens prices in core and CEEC countries, forward linkages generate demand-pull in core suppliers and competitive discipline in CEECs, while peripheral economies behave as price-takers. Results are robust to first-differencing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Antonia López-Villavicencio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2026. "GVC participation and inflation in the European Union," Working Papers 2609, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_2609.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2609
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florio, Anna & Siena, Daniele & Zago, Riccardo, 2025. "Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Michael E. Waugh, 2023. "Heterogeneous Agent Trade," NBER Working Papers 31810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    4. Jos'e Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller & Eric Qian & Christian K. Wolf, 2024. "Double Robustness of Local Projections and Some Unpleasant VARithmetic," Papers 2405.09509, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    6. Jane Haltmaier, 2015. "Have Global Value Chains Contributed to Global Imbalances?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1154, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    8. Feenstra, Robert C & Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 240-245, May.
    9. Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2020. "Globalization, market structure and inflation dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    11. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    12. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    13. Antrà s, Pol, 2019. "Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 14191, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Koen De Backer & Philippe De Lombaerde & Lelio Lapadre, 2018. "Analyzing Global and Regional Value Chains," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 153, pages 3-10.
    15. Thomas Farole, 2016. "Do global value chains create jobs?," World of Labour, LISER, pages 291-291, September.
    16. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    17. David Hummels & Rasmus J?rgensen & Jakob Munch & Chong Xiang, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1597-1629, June.
    18. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2018. "Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    21. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2016. "Global Value Chains: A Survey Of Drivers And Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 278-301, April.
    22. Pol Antras, 2020. "Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Reports 33228, The World Bank Group.
    23. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Eric Qian & Christian K. Wolf, 2025. "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 33871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    25. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2019. "International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 507-521, July.
    26. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    27. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    28. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    29. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2026. "Macroeconomic policies for AI," Economics Working Papers 1943, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    30. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Antonia López-Villavicencio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2026. "EU unemployment and global value chains," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 162(2), pages 449-480, May.
    2. Tommaso Aquilante & Aydan Dogan & Melih Firat & Aditya Soenarjo, 2024. "Global value chains and the dynamics of UK inflation," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1060, Bank of England.
    3. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    5. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Wages: Multi-Country Evidence from Linked Worker-Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 505-539, July.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Andreas M. Fischer & Philipp Herkenhoff & Philip Sauré, 2023. "Identifying Chinese supply shocks: Effects of trade on labor markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1476-1507, September.
    8. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Offshoring: What Consequences for Workers? Evidence from Global Value Chains," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20005, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Andrea Ariu & Katariina Nilsson Hakkala & J. Bradford Jensen & Saara Tamminen, 2019. "Service Imports, Workforce Composition, and Firm Performance: Evidence from Finnish Microdata," NBER Working Papers 26355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of EU value chain participation," Working Papers hal-04159742, HAL.
    11. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Offshoring: What Consequences for Workers? Evidence from Global Value Chains," Post-Print halshs-02899944, HAL.
    12. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Offshoring: What Consequences for Workers? Evidence from Global Value Chains," Working Papers hal-02548691, HAL.
    13. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    14. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    15. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana &, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    17. Dirk Bursian & Arne J. Nagengast, 2020. "Offshoring And The Polarization Of The Demand For Capital," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 260-282, January.
    18. Martina Magli, 2020. "The Direct and Indirect Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8413, CESifo.
    19. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Offshoring: What Consequences for Workers? Evidence from Global Value Chains," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02899944, HAL.
    20. Borrs, Linda & Knauth, Florian, 2021. "Trade, technology, and the channels of wage inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.