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Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists

Author

Listed:
  • José Luis Montiel Olea
  • Mikkel Plagborg-Møller
  • Eric Qian
  • Christian K. Wolf

Abstract

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance trade-off. While the low bias of LPs comes at a quite steep variance cost, this cost must be paid to achieve robust uncertainty assessments. Hence, when the goal is to convey what can be learned about dynamic causal effects from the data, VARs should only be used with long lag lengths, ensuring equivalence with LP. For LP estimation, we provide guidance on selection of lag length and controls, bias correction, and confidence interval construction.

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Eric Qian & Christian K. Wolf, 2025. "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 33871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33871
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2025. "Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11193, The World Bank.
    2. Damiano Di Francesco & Omar Pietro Carnevale, 2025. "Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear?," LEM Papers Series 2025/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Olegs Tkacevs & Karsten Staehr, 2025. "The effects of macroeconomic and budget balance shocks on public debt trajectories in the Euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2025-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Dec 2025.
    4. Sarah Vella, 2025. "Constructing a country-specific indicator for cyclical systemic risk," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-63, June.
    5. Andrea Recine & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Defense and Non-Defense R&D," Working Papers in Public Economics 262, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    6. Roberto Casarin & Antonio Peruzzi & Davide Raggi, 2025. "Multiple Equilibria and the Phillips Curve: Do Agents Always Underreact?," Working Papers 2025: 10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Gasmi, Farid & Kouakou, Dorgyles & Metevier, Samantha & Noumba Um, Paul, 2026. "Capturing the positive effects of brain drain through return migration policies: An analysis of the 1980-2022 Moroccan experience," TSE Working Papers 26-1700, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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