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Michael Dominic Bauer

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 17:19:00

Working papers

  1. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 12343, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Cotton, 2025. "The Predictability of Global Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers 25-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl & James McNeil, 2026. "Reassessing Proxy-based Identification of Multiple Monetary Policy Shocks for the Euro Area, the US , and the UK," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2026-02, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

  2. Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2025-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Adrian & Domenico Giannone & Matteo Luciani & Mike West, 2026. "Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," Papers 2606.16708, arXiv.org.

  3. Michael Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," CESifo Working Paper Series 11507, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Hankui Wang & Zhongli Wang & Jiachen Yi, 2025. "Agentic Workflows for Economic Research: Design and Implementation," Papers 2504.09736, arXiv.org.
    2. Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2025. "Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

  4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Karen Davtyan & Adel R. Kalozdi, 2025. "The Power of Words: Central Bank Green Communication and Performance of Energy Sectors," Working Papers wpdea2515, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Boungou, Whelsy & Dufau, Bastien, 2026. "Empirical evidence of a green investment channel of monetary policy under the EU ETS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

  5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Dunbar, Kwamie & Treku, Daniel N., 2025. "Do energy transition investment flows aid climate commitments?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Fields, Micah & Lindequist, David, 2024. "Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Donia Besher & Anirban Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data," Papers 2507.12276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    5. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Wanidwaranan, Phasin & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and trading behavior: Evidence from aggregate herd behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Piero Basaglia & Clara Berestycki & Stefano Carattini & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Tobias Kruse, 2025. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Firms' and Investors' Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 11782, CESifo.
    8. Fischer, Lion & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 198, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Florackis, Chris & Muktadir-Al-Mukit, Dewan & Sainani, Sushil & Zhang, Ziyang (John), 2025. "Stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure announcements: The role of institutional investors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Malim Franco, João Pedro & Barasal Morales, Adriano & Poletti Laurini, Márcio, 2026. "When green turns exuberant: Bubble detection in clean-energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

  6. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Ole Wilms, 2023. "Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 10246, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Beyer, Victor & Bauckloh, Michael Tobias, 2024. "Non-standard errors in carbon premia," CFR Working Papers 24-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Covachev, Svetoslav & Martel, Jocelyn & Brito-Ramos, Sofia, 2025. "Are ESG factors truly unique?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
    4. Plante, Michael, 2025. "Investing in the batteries and vehicles of the future: A view through the stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Duong, An Thi Thuy, 2025. "Resilience or returns: Assessing green equity index performance across market regimes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Zhao, Daping & Wang, Yande & Fang, Yong, 2024. "Greenium and public climate concerns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    7. Liêu, Minh-Lý & Dao, Thuy & Nguyen, Tam Huy & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Bremer, Björn & Chwieroth, Jeffrey & Mancosu, Anita, 2026. "When Central Banks Go Green: Public Opinion and Monetary Policy Legitimacy," SocArXiv jmru2_v1, Center for Open Science.
    10. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    12. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," Working Paper Series 2024-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Xu, Chong & Tao, Miaomiao & Qi, Lingli & Roubaud, David, 2025. "Can green CEOs trigger the green premium effect?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Dennis, Benjamin N. & İsçan, Talan B., 2026. "A new measure of climate transition risk based on distance to a global emission factor frontier," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    17. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    19. Huij, Joop & Laurs, Dries & van Zanten, Jan Anton, 2025. "The investment implications of sustainable investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    21. Hambel, Christoph & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2025. "Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    22. Minh-Lý Liêu & Thuy Dao & Tam Huy Nguyen & Vu Quang Trinh, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Post-Print hal-04834052, HAL.
    23. Li, Tinghui & Shu, Xin & Liao, Gaoke, 2024. "Does corporate greenwashing affect investors' decisions?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    24. Timothy King & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2025. "ESG crypto coins: speculative assets, or, the future of green money?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-816, August.
    25. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    26. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    27. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.
    28. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    29. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    30. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    31. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    32. Matteo Crosignani & Emilio Osambela & Matthew Pritsker, 2025. "Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market," Staff Reports 1161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    33. Benchora, Inessa & Galanti, Sébastien, 2024. "Verified carbon emissions and stock returns in the EU Emissions Trading System," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    34. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    35. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    36. Arthur Enders & Thomas Lontzek & Karl Schmedders & Marco Thalhammer, 2025. "Carbon risk and equity prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 13-32, February.
    37. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    38. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.
    39. Jaccard, Ivan & Kockerols, Thore & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "Green and brown returns in a production economy," Working Paper Series 3030, European Central Bank.
    40. Shen, Jie & Zheng, Haitao & Zhu, Lei, 2025. "Quantifying firm-level carbon risk: A novel emission reduction stress factor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    41. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    42. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    43. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2025. "Understanding the connectedness between US traditional assets and green cryptocurrencies during crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    44. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    45. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2024. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128528, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    46. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    47. Bogdan Ionut Anghel & Radu Lupu, "undated". "Green Energy Consumption and Stock Performance: Evidence from the German Market," BASIQ Conference Proceedings 2024:055, Bucharest University of Economic Studies.
    48. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    49. Badía, Guillermo & Cortez, Maria Céu & Silva, Florinda, 2024. "Do investors benefit from investing in stocks of green bond issuers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    50. Li, Renzhong & Fei, Chen & Fei, Weiyin, 2025. "Impact of government’s support policy on decision-making of platform participants under ESG," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).

  7. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin E. Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10182, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    2. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    3. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    4. Eric Fischer & Rebecca McCaughrin & Saketh Prazad & Mark Vandergon, 2023. "Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach," Staff Reports 1081, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Nadezhda Ivanova & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Styrin, 2024. "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy: Review of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 119-144, December.
    6. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    7. Chenyu Hou & Tao Wang, 2025. "Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations," Staff Working Papers 25-31, Bank of Canada.
    8. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Rafael, 2026. "Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Wataru Hagio & Daisuke Ikeda & Koji Takahashi & Keisuke Yoshida, 2026. "Mind the Gap When Exiting Low-for-Long," IMES Discussion Paper Series 26-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2026. "Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Zhang, Dongyang & He, Yurun & Lu, Meiting, 2024. "Is energy firms' investment behavior more sensitive on corporate perception of monetary policy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Central bank mandates and monetary policy stances: Through the lens of Federal Reserve speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    14. Zeng, Wendy & Johnson, William & Davis, James D., 2024. "United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections to 2033," Economic Information Bulletin 342469, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
    16. Zhu, Dandan & Wang, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Narrative monetary policy expectation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    17. Xia, Fan Dora & Zhu, Xingyu Sonya, 2026. "Macroeconomic news and repricing of monetary policy expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Vincenzo Cuciniello, 2024. "Market perceptions, monetary policy, and credibility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1449, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1058, Bank of England.
    20. Lukas Hack & Klodiana Istrefi & Matthias Meier, 2025. "The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks," Working papers 1021, Banque de France.
    21. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2025. "How Do We Learn About the Long Run?," Staff Reports 1150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Andrei, Daniel & Hasler, Michael, 2025. "Investor learning about monetary-policy transmission and the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    23. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    24. Vandeweyer, Quentin & Yang, Minghao & Yannelis, Constantine, 2026. "Discount factors and monetary policy: Evidence from dual-listed stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    25. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    26. Svec, Justin & Tortorice, Daniel L., 2025. "Asserting independence: Optimal monetary policy when the central bank and political authority disagree," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    27. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

  8. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Roggenkamp, Hauke, 2025. "A comment on ‘growth and inequality in public good provision’: Testing the robustness and generalizability of dynamic public good games," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

  9. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 9642, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan J Adams & Philip Barrett, 2023. "Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts," Working Papers 001010, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    2. Gopinath, Gita & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default: More similar than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Jonathan Adams & Min Fang & Zheng Liu & Yajie Wang, 2025. "The Rise of AI Pricing: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Firm Performance," Working Paper Series 2024-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Endong Wang, 2024. "Local projections identify the same policy counterfactuals as empirical and structural models," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    6. Martin Groiss & Nicolas Syrichas, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0058, Berlin School of Economics.
    7. Buda, G & Carvalho, V. M. & Corsetti, G & Duarte, J. B. & Hansen, S. & Moura, A. S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & Rodríguez Mora, J. V. & Alves da Silva, G., 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
      • Afonso S. Moura & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Álvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Guilherme Alves da Silva, 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers w202501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Corsi, Fulvio & Longo, Luigi & Cordoni, Francesco, 2025. "SVAR identification with nowcasted macroeconomic data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. William Larson & Andrew Martinez, 2025. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 25-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    10. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2025. "An investigation into the causes of stock market return deviations from real earnings yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Anghel, Dan Gabriel & Caraiani, Petre, 2024. "Monetary policy shocks and the high-frequency network connectedness of stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    12. Naifar, Nader, 2025. "Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets: A Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2033, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Alexa Kaminski & Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2026. "Monetary Policy Narratives and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0126, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Staff Report 642, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Willem Thorbecke, 2024. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A Sectoral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Damast, Dominik & Kubitza, Christian & Sørensen, Jakob Ahm, 2025. "Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy," ICIR Working Paper Series 55/25, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Jonas Hölz, 2025. "Re-visiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Monetary Policy," Working Papers No 04/2025, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    19. Faia, Ester & Lewis, Karen K. & Zhou, Haonan, 2025. "Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Holden, Tom D., 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," EconStor Preprints 279481, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2024.
    21. Do, Yeongwoong, 2025. "Effects of monetary policy on the wealth inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    22. Nadezhda Ivanova & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Styrin, 2024. "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy: Review of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 119-144, December.
    23. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2023. "An event-driven bank stress indicator: The case of US regional banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    24. William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui & Evangelos Salachas, 2025. "Stock Price Bubbles, Inflation and Monetary Surprises," Working Papers 2025.17, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    25. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    169. Hiroyuki Kubota & Mototsugu Shintani, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Japan: an analysis using interest rate futures surprises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 783-801, February.
    170. Pesce, Simone & Errico, Marco & Pollio, Luigi, 2025. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in firms response to aggregate fluctuations: what can we learn from machine learning?," Working Paper Series 3107, European Central Bank.
    171. Julia Schmidt & Maéva Silvestrini & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2026. "Federal Reserve shocks: which securities really flow?," Working papers 1040, Banque de France.

  10. Michael D. Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9150, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    4. Gergely Hudecz & Edmund Moshammer & Marco Onofri, 2024. "Option-implied bond spread risk," Working Papers 66, European Stability Mechanism, revised 25 Nov 2024.
    5. Pin Wang & Guojing Wang & Yang Yang & Jing Yao, 2025. "Tail Conditional Expectation and Tail Variance for Extended Generalized Skew-Elliptical Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Jonas Hölz, 2025. "Re-visiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Monetary Policy," Working Papers No 04/2025, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Phillip An & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Amaze Lusompa, 2025. "How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises," Research Working Paper RWP 25-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2026. "Demand disagreement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    9. Jean-Paul Renne & Sarah Mouabbi & Adrien Tschopp, 2026. "Inflation and Growth Risk: Balancing the Scales with Surveys," Working papers 1036, Banque de France.
    10. Guljanov, Gaygysyz & Mutschler, Willi & Trede, Mark, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," Dynare Working Papers 78, CEPREMAP.
    11. Vrins, Frédéric & Wang, Linqi, 2021. "Asymmetric short-rate model without lower bound," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021006, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    12. Bauer, Michael D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2022. "A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification," IMFS Working Paper Series 165, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    13. Matteo Foglia & Rangan Gupta & Petre Caraiani & Vincenzo Pacelli, 2025. "Time-Varying Spillover of Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles in Stock and Oil Markets," Working Papers 202534, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. van der Wel, Michel & Zhang, Yaoyuan, 2026. "Global evidence on unspanned macro risks in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2026. "Multiple monetary policy shocks from daily data: A heteroskedasticity IV approach," IRENE Working Papers 26-06, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14830, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    17. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2024. "Modeling volatility in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Ying, Shan & Sheen, Jeffrey & Gu, Xin & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2025. "Does monetary policy uncertainty moderate the transmission of policy shocks to government bond yields?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Camara, Santiago, 2025. "Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1058, Bank of England.
    21. Xinyang Li, 2025. "Tail risk and Flight-to-Safety," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 386-410, July.
    22. Marco Graziano & Marius Koechlin & Andreas Tischbirek, 2026. "The Spillovers of LSAPs on Banks in the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-005r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 22 Jun 2026.
    23. Chen, Zhengyang, 2026. "Demystifying monetary policy surprises: Fed response to financial conditions and wait and see for new economic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    24. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    25. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Elie Bouri, 2025. "Implied Skewness of the Treasury Yield: A New Predictor for Stock Market Bubbles," Working Papers 202539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  11. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8151, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Cotton, 2022. "Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects?," Working Papers 22-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    3. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    4. Hamza Bennani, 2023. "Overconfidence of the chair of the Federal Reserve and market expectations: Evidence based on media coverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3403-3419, July.
    5. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & A. Hakan Kara & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Sang Seok Lee, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    8. Ha,Jongrim & Liu,Haiqin & Rogers,John, 2023. "Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10582, The World Bank.
    9. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    10. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Michiel De Pooter & Giovanni Favara & Michele Modugno & Jason J. Wu, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lihui Tian & Haifeng Wu & Qichang Xie, 2025. "The impact of FOMC announcements on cryptocurrency risk spillover across different market conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 1035-1069, August.
    13. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    16. Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1719-1753, June.
    19. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    22. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    23. Tim D. Maurer & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Working Papers 2020-10, Swiss National Bank.
    24. Sui-Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Communication in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Malaysia," Working Papers wp44, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Yohei Yamamoto & Naoko Hara, 2022. "Identifying factor‐augmented vector autoregression models via changes in shock variances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 722-745, June.
    27. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    29. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    30. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    31. Kaminskas, Rokas & Jurkšas, Linas, 2024. "ECB communication sentiments: How do they relate to the economic environment and financial markets?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Peng, Pei & Guo, Yangli & Huang, Dengshi & Wang, Hui, 2025. "Climate change risk and bond risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Yuan, Xue & Dong, Yu & Liang, Liang & Wei, Yuting, 2025. "The impact of carbon emission trading scheme policy on information asymmetry in the stock market: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Liu, Congcong & Luo, Danglun, 2025. "Feeling the heat: The impact of temperature anomalies on corporate investment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.
    6. Emanuel Moench & Robin Schaal, 2025. "The impact of extreme weather events on the term structure of sovereign debt," Working Papers 11088, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Pauline Chikhani & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2025. "An analytical framework to price long‐dated climate‐exposed assets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(4), pages 1093-1146, November.
    9. Meng, Weizhen & Chen, Tuyue & Yang, Jinqiang, 2025. "The economic and policy consequences of carbon emissions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Fangzhi Wang, 2024. "Towards a representative social cost of carbon," Papers 2404.04989, arXiv.org.
    11. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    12. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Wu, Ran & Li, Ming & Ma, Shenglin & Zeng, Hongjun, 2026. "Asymmetric market connectedness and systemic risk: A novel quantile and time-frequency evidence from brazilian energy firms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    14. Bauer, Adam Michael & Hallegatte, Stephane & McIsaac, Florent, 2024. "The Timing versus Allocation Trade-off in Politically Constrained Climate Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10971, The World Bank.
    15. Ma, Feng & Guo, Yangli & Luo, Qin & Zhong, Juandan, 2025. "Forecasting corporate bond returns amid climate change risk: A dynamic forecast combination approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  13. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”," NBER Working Papers 27013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Davig, Troy & Foerster, Andrew, 2023. "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Keweloh, Sascha A. & Hetzenecker, Stephan & Seepe, Andre, 2023. "Monetary policy and information shocks in a block-recursive SVAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Saerkjaer, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Narrative Restrictions: Rules Matter," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0328, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Robin Braun & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tuli Saha, 2023. "Measuring monetary policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event‑Study Database," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1050, Bank of England.
    5. Li, Z. M. & Linton, O. B. & Zhai, Y. & Zhang, H., 2026. "Designing High-Frequency Market Liquidity Measures with Applications to Monetary Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2639, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Kostika, Eleftheria & Siameti, Panagiota & Dotsis, George, 2025. "Monetary policy effects on freight rates of dry bulk vessels," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & A. Hakan Kara & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Sang Seok Lee, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2025. "When Is Liquidity Bad?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_723, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    11. Wataru Hagio & Daisuke Ikeda & Koji Takahashi & Keisuke Yoshida, 2026. "Mind the Gap When Exiting Low-for-Long," IMES Discussion Paper Series 26-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    12. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2026. "Multiple monetary policy shocks from daily data: A heteroskedasticity IV approach," IRENE Working Papers 26-06, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Measuring monetary policy shocks," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Grigoli, Francesco & Sandri, Damiano & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2026. "Monetary Policy According to Households: Perceptions, Reactions, and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 18591, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    20. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Dimitris Korobilis, 2025. "Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs," Papers 2505.06649, arXiv.org.
    22. Luca Baldo & Marco Bernardini, 2025. "What drives policy rate expectations? Evidence from the post-pandemic monetary policy cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1500, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sebastian Schmidt & Ben Schumann & Gernot Müller, 2026. "Exchange Rate Insulation Revisited," CESifo Working Paper Series 12635, CESifo.
    24. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2025. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    26. Firmin Ayivodji & Etienne Briand & Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026. "Monetary Policy in the Media Spotlight: Sentiments, Signals, and Economic Impact," Papers 2605.15092, arXiv.org.
    27. Golez, Benjamin & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "Fed information effects: Evidence from the equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    28. Zhao Han & Chengcheng Jia, 2023. "Asymmetric Information, Two-Way Learning, and the Fed Information Effect," Working Papers 23-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 02 Oct 2025.
    29. Ngambou Djatche, Melchisédek Joslem, 2025. "Unveiling the effects of monetary surprises: Risk-taking and credit supply of U.S. banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    30. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    31. Artyom Ghazaryan & Anahit Matinyan & Gevorg Minasyan & Aleksandr Shirkhanyan, 2026. "Identifying monetary policy shocks in a small open economy: a high-frequency and narrative approaches in Armenia," Working Papers WP-2026-01, Central Bank of Armenia.
    32. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    33. Chen, Ziwen, 2026. "Monetary policy surprises and the distribution of art-market returns: evidence from panel quantile local projections," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    34. Golez, Benjamin & Kelly, Peter & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "FOMC news and segmented markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    35. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    36. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Viktoriia Bannikova & Sofya Kolesnik, 2025. "Assessing the predictability of market interest rate changes on Central Bank of Russia press release days," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 77, pages 25-45.
    38. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    39. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    40. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragon & Gabriela Bezerra de Medeiros & Igor Mendes & Ludyson Abreu, 2026. "Measuring monetary policy shocks and their effects in an emerging economy: the case of Brazil," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 1-27, March.
    41. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    42. Bernardino Adão & Sandra Gomes & Laura Alpizar, 2025. "On how to assess the impact of monetary policy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    43. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    44. Nakamura, Fumitaka & Sudo, Nao & Sugisaki, Yu, 2024. "Assessing monetary policy surprises in Japan by high frequency identification," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    45. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    46. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Fed Information Effect and Firm-Level Investment: Evidence and Theory," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-6a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised Mar 2024.
    47. Mariana García-Schmidt, 2024. "Is the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Alive in Emerging Markets?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1017, Central Bank of Chile.
    48. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2024. "Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress during Supply- versus Demand-Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    49. List, Sophia & Metiu, Norbert, 2025. "Monetary policy, central bank information, and bank lending: Evidence from German banks," Discussion Papers 06/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    50. Flavia Corneli & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: the Chinese footprint," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 772, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    51. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    52. Kokonas, Nikolaos & Rousakis, Michalis & Smyrniotis, Efthymios, 2025. "Controlling inflation with central bank news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    53. Cory Baird & Jonathan Benchimol & Vira Vyshnevska & Wook Sohn & Iegor Vyshnevskyi, 2026. "The monetary policy statement database," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking, volume 67, Bank for International Settlements.
    54. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland E. Farmer, 2024. "Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    55. Ariadne Checo & Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," BIS Working Papers 1170, Bank for International Settlements.
    56. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    57. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    58. Nguyen, Lam, 2025. "Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs with incomplete identification: Re-evaluating the validity of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
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  14. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-based monetary policy uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7621, CESifo.

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    1. Zhou, Ye & Zhang, Wenbo & Che, Jinfang & Ma, Sichao, 2025. "The impact of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on abnormal cross-border capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PE).
    2. Jonathan Benchimol & Yossi Saadon & Nimrod Segev, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," Post-Print emse-04624984, HAL.
    3. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    4. Wang, Jiqiang & Dai, Peng-Fei & Zhang, Xuewen, 2024. "Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2019. "Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 25817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    7. Gergely Hudecz & Edmund Moshammer & Marco Onofri, 2024. "Option-implied bond spread risk," Working Papers 66, European Stability Mechanism, revised 25 Nov 2024.
    8. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois, 2020. "Central banks in parliaments: a text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 2442, European Central Bank.
    9. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    10. Lin, Lei & Tan, Jing, 2025. "Monetary policy uncertainty and ambiguity premium from news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    12. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    14. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    15. Lin, Jianhao & Fan, Jiacheng & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Information Dissemination and the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    16. Kroencke, Tim-Alexander & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC risk shift," SAFE Working Paper Series 302, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Hassan Zada & Abdul Mansoor & Naveed Khan & Wing-Keung Wong & Adamu Jibir, 2026. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns in Developed and Emerging Countries: Evidence from a Quantile-on-Quantile Approach," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 30(3), pages 89-113, September.
    18. Sekandary, Ghezal & Bask, Mikael, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, monetary policy surprises and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    19. Griffa, Cristina & Oliver i Vert, Miquel & Tatlow, Benjamin & Zhong, Yaolang, 2023. "Replication Report: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," I4R Discussion Paper Series 76, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    20. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca & Shen, Aizhong, 2022. "It is not just What you say, but How you say it: Why tonality matters in central bank communication," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 216-231.
    21. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    22. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    23. Namrata Narain & Namrata Narain, 2026. "The Market Impact of Fed Communications: The Role of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 22(1), pages 313-389, January.
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    25. Matsumoto, Ryo & Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "Central Bank Information Effects in Japan : The Role of Uncertainty Channel," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-126, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    26. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2026. "Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    27. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and green investment decisions: A cross-national spillover perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
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    29. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    31. Refk Selmi, 2025. "Changes in Inflation Expectations and Firm Performance during Recent Global Economic Shocks," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 26(2), pages 731-764, November.
    32. Li, Luyang & Yin, Ximing & Yu, Deshui, 2025. "On the time-varying relation between monetary policy uncertainty and bond risk premia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    33. Ying, Shan & Sheen, Jeffrey & Gu, Xin & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2025. "Does monetary policy uncertainty moderate the transmission of policy shocks to government bond yields?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    34. Zhu, Dandan & Wang, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Narrative monetary policy expectation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    35. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà, Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2025. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    36. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    37. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    38. Gao, Jieying & Qin, Qi & Zhou, Shengjie, 2025. "Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    39. Rui Guo & Dun Jia & Xi Sun, 2023. "Information Acquisition, Uncertainty Reduction, and Pre-Announcement Premium in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1077-1118.
    40. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    41. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
      • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    42. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    43. Baxa, Jaromir & Buliskeria, Nino & Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Havrankova, Zuzana & Kundu, Suranjana, 2023. "A comment on Bauer, Lakdawala, Mueller: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 77, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    44. Juan Arismendi-Zambrano & Emmanuel Kypraios & Alessia Paccagnini, 2026. "Informativeness of the federal reserve chair communication’s sentiment on the monetary policy uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 357(1), pages 633-677, February.
    45. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    46. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    47. Daniel J. Lewis, 2025. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1086-1103, July.
    48. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2025. "What are the macroeconomic effects of state-dependent forward guidance?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    49. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    50. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
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    53. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Negin Sanadgol, 2023. "Investigating the monetary policy risk channel based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model: Empirical evidence from Iran," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-28, October.
    54. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
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  15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.

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    1. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Asriyan, Vladimir & Laeven, Luc & Martin, Alberto & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Vanasco, Victoria, 2025. "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: lessons from general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 3070, European Central Bank.
    3. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    4. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    5. Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev, 2025. "Neutral rate of interest in a small open economy: The case of Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 990-1016, August.
    6. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & McNeil, James, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    10. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    12. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    13. Kaebi, Mohammed Mehdi & Ferreira Batista Martins, Igor, 2025. "Long-Run Interest Rate Differentials and the Profitability of Currency Carry," Working Papers 2025:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
    14. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    24. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
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    32. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    64. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    65. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    66. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    67. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    68. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2019. "Trend Inflation Meets Macro-Finance: The Puzzling Behavior of Price Dispersion," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    69. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    70. Posch, Olaf, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor rule," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181616, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    71. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
    72. Francesca Lilla & Gabriele Zinna, 2025. "Survey-based daily estimates of inflation expectations and risk premia in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    73. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    74. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    75. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    76. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    77. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    78. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    79. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    80. Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Yan, Yayi, 2025. "Time-varying vector error-correction models: Estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    81. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    82. Ferrando, Annalisa & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vives, Xavier, 2021. "Product market structure and monetary policy: evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 2632, European Central Bank.
    83. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    84. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    85. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    86. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    87. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    88. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    89. Farmer, Leland E & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2024. "Learning about the Long Run," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tn1s1hp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

  16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5187, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    2. Backwell, Alex, 2021. "Unspanned stochastic volatility from an empirical and practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Yuanzhi Wang & Xinbei Wei & Qunzi Zhang, 2025. "Asymmetric Commodity Tails and Index Futures Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 247-265, March.
    4. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "How Macro Transactions Describe the Evolution and Fluctuation of Financial Variables," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    9. van der Wel, Michel & Zhang, Yaoyuan, 2026. "Global evidence on unspanned macro risks in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Ting-Jung Lee & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2025. "Option-Implied Zero-Coupon Yields: Unifying Bond and Equity Markets," Papers 2512.10823, arXiv.org.
    11. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 772, Bank of England.
    12. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    13. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    14. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    16. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    17. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    18. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    20. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    21. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    22. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    23. Min Wei, 2019. "Comments on "Determinants of Asia-pacific government bond yields"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 41-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    25. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    26. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    27. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    28. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    30. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    31. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    32. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    33. Moura, Rubens, 2022. "MultiATSM: An R Package for Arbitrage-free Multicountry Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates Models with Unspanned Macroeconomic Risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    34. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    35. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2024. "Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    36. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. Siyu Bie & Francis X. Diebold & Jingyu He & Junye Li, 2024. "Machine Learning and the Yield Curve: Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching," Papers 2408.12863, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    38. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    39. Dongho Song, 2016. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 915, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Jul 2016.

  17. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    2. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    3. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    4. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 435, Bank of England.
    5. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 20-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 772, Bank of England.
    15. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 12343, CESifo.
    17. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    18. Andrew Meldrum & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 575, Bank of England.
    19. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    20. Marco Realdon, 2025. "Affine term structure models with Garch volatility," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(4), pages 1-33, December.
    21. Anne Balter & Antoon Pelsser & Peter Schotman, 2013. "Extrapolating the term structure of interest rates with parameter uncertainty," Papers 1312.5073, arXiv.org.
    22. Kick, Heinrich, 2017. "Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant," Working Paper Series 1992, European Central Bank.
    23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    25. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    26. Yun, Jaeho, 2023. "International linkages of term structures: US and Korea Treasury bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    27. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.
    28. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    30. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    31. Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski & Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos & Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2024. "Sequential Learning and Economic Benefits from Dynamic Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(4), pages 2236-2254, April.
    32. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    33. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    34. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
    35. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    36. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    37. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    38. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    39. Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Price pressures in the UK index-linked market: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 968, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. Rogier Quaedvlieg & Peter Schotman, 2022. "Hedging Long-Term Liabilities [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 505-538.

  18. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5541, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Valentin Haddad & David Sraer, 2020. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2465-2502, October.
    2. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2022. "Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 991-1019, June.
    3. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    5. Wan, Runqing & Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2022. "Real-time Bayesian learning and bond return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 114-130.
    6. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    7. Kevin J. Lansing & Stephen F. LeRoy & Jun Ma, 2022. "Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?," Working Paper Series 2018-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    10. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Aşty Al-Jaaf, 2022. "Dividend predictability and higher moment risk premia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 83-99, March.
    13. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    14. Su, Hao & Ying, Chengwei & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2022. "Disaster risk matters in the bond market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    15. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    16. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    17. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    19. Fernandes, Marcelo & Nunes, Clemens & Reis, Yuri, 2021. "What Drives the Nominal Yield Curve in Brazil?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    20. Kang, Hankil & Ryu, Doojin, 2026. "Sentiment, uncertainty, and bond return predictability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    21. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    22. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    23. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das "Quantitative Easing" der FED," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 40, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    24. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    25. van der Wel, Michel & Zhang, Yaoyuan, 2026. "Global evidence on unspanned macro risks in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    26. Don H. Kim & Marcelo Ochoa, 2021. "International Yield Spillovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Ting-Jung Lee & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2025. "Option-Implied Zero-Coupon Yields: Unifying Bond and Equity Markets," Papers 2512.10823, arXiv.org.
    28. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    29. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    30. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    31. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
    32. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    33. Michael D. Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 28954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Longzhen Fan & Xin Hou & Qian Sun, 2023. "A monetary policy–based explanation of swap spreads in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1645-1667, November.
    35. Valentin Burban & Bruno De Backer & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2024. "Inflation (De-)Anchoring in the Euro Area," Working papers 965, Banque de France.
    36. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
    37. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9305, CESifo.
    38. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Federico Calogero Nucera, 2022. "Economic fundamentals and stock market valuation: a CAPE-based approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1393, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    39. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
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    42. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    43. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    44. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    45. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2024. "Predicting Bond Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 931-951, February.
    46. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1058, Bank of England.
    47. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    48. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    49. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    50. Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    51. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    52. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    53. Wan, Runqing & Xing, Bingxin Ann, 2025. "Can switching between predictive models and the historical average improve bond return predictability?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    54. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Bond Risk Premia Predictability Test in the Quantiles," Papers 2410.03557, arXiv.org.
    55. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    56. Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski & Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos & Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2024. "Sequential Learning and Economic Benefits from Dynamic Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(4), pages 2236-2254, April.
    57. Mariya Gubareva & Benjamin Keddad, 2022. "Emerging markets financial sector debt: A Markov‐switching study of interest rate sensitivity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3851-3863, October.
    58. Liyan Han & Yang Xu & Qunzi Zhang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2026. "Oil Strikes Back: Trend Factors and Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(1), pages 141-181, February.
    59. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    60. Gubareva, Mariya & Borges, Maria Rosa, 2020. "Switching interest rate sensitivity regimes of U.S. Corporates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    61. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    62. Hansen, Jorge Wolfgang, 2025. "Unspanned stochastic volatility in the linear-rational square-root model: Evidence from the Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    63. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan, 2018. "Equity/bond yield correlation and the FED model: evidence of switching behaviour from the G7 markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 413-428, October.
    64. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
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    66. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
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  19. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and the News," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2023. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1937-1953, October.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Zhuoshi Liu & Elisabetta Vangelista & Iryna Kaminska & Jon Relleen, 2015. "The informational content of market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from govenment bonds and inflation swaps in the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 551, Bank of England.
    6. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    8. Nautz, Dieter & Netsunajew, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Short and in the Long Run," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The credibility of the ECB's inflation target in times of Corona: New evidence from an online survey," Discussion Papers 2020/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," CFS Working Paper Series 658, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264094, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2021. "Expectation spillovers and the return of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    16. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    17. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Petra Gerlach & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2017. "Computing long‐term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation markets," Working Papers 2017-09, Swiss National Bank.
    19. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    20. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    21. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Lansing, Kevin J., 2025. "A simple measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in FIRE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    22. Tetiana Yukhymenko, 2021. "Role of the Media in the Inflation Expectation Formation Process," IHEID Working Papers 13-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    23. Rodrigo Barria & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1034, Bank of England.
    24. Diana Gabrielyan & Lenno Uusküla, 2022. "Inflation Expectations And Consumption With Machine Learning," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 142, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    25. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    26. Picault, Matthieu & Pinter, Julien & Renault, Thomas, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    27. Binder, Carola Conces, 2021. "Household expectations and the release of macroeconomic statistics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    28. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    30. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    31. Ilek, Alex, 2021. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 516-530.
    32. Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Market Reading of Central Bankers Words. A High-Frequency Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    33. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    34. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    35. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
    36. Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "Central bank communication and financial markets: New high-frequency evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 336-345.
    37. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.

  20. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Shadow Rates as a Measure of the Monetary Policy Stance: Some International Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9839, CESifo.

  21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Conventional and unconventional shadow rates and the US state-level stock returns: Evidence from non-stationary heterogeneous panels," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    10. Christian Grisse, 2023. "Lower Bound Uncertainty and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 619-634, March.
    11. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge & José Garcia-Revelo, 2024. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    13. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 23565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    18. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Faster Solutions for Black Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "The stabilizing effect of the zero lower bound: A perspective of interest rate target zones," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 61-67.
    20. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    22. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    23. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    24. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2019. "The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    25. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    26. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    27. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2018-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 71432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    30. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    31. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    32. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    34. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    35. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    37. Hahn, Jaehoon & Jang, Woon Wook & Kim, Seongjin, 2017. "Risk aversion, uncertainty, and monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 118-122.
    38. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Yakov Ben‐Haim & Jan Willem Van den End, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty in the natural rate of interest: Info‐gap as guide for monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3228-3245, July.
    40. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    41. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    42. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    43. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    44. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," AMSE Working Papers 1932, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    45. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    46. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    47. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Pass-Through of Shocks into Different U.S. Prices," Working Papers 2401, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    48. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    49. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Efficient Jacobian Evaluations for Estimating Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-77, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    50. Dang, Van Dan & Huynh, Japan, 2022. "Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    51. Tomoo Inoue & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "International Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies of Major Central Banks," Working Papers hal-02938960, HAL.
    52. Chunping Liu & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2025. "Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 983-1006, January.
    53. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    54. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    88. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials," CEPS Papers 11266, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    89. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "Global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 200-216.
    90. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Christian Pfister, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: A Stock-Taking Exercise," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    91. Ansgar Belke, 2017. "Central Bank Communication: Managing Expectations through the Monetary Dialogue," ROME Working Papers 201704, ROME Network.
    92. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    93. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    94. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto N ez Ram rez & Sacnict Valdez del R o, 2018. "Non-Conventional Monetary Policy: The Case of Bolivia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 59-67.
    95. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2014. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 14-43, Bank of Canada.
    96. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2018. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 97.
    97. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tawk, Nour, 2019. "Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A global VAR Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 147-163.
    98. Mucai Lin & Linlin Niu, 2019. "Echo over the Great Wall: Spillover Effects of QE Announcements on Chinese Yield Curve," Working Papers 2019-05-17, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 14 Oct 2020.
    99. Li, Xiao-Lin & Xie, Pinyi & Ding, Hui & Si, Deng-Kui, 2023. "Central bank lending facility and investment efficiency of non-SOEs: evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    100. Kondo, Yoshihiro & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ota, Rui & Sui, Qing-Yuan, 2020. "Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    101. Eksi, Ozan & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-147.
    102. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    104. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
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    106. Wang, Ling, 2019. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on MBS spreads: A comparative study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 235-251.
    107. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeșin, Pınar, 2017. "Reprint of: The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 153-172.
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    110. Kao, Erin H. & Ho, Tsung-wu & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2015. "Price linkage between the US and Japanese futures across different time zones: An analysis of the minute-by-minute data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 321-336.
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  23. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Movements in the US Government Bond Risk Premia," Working Papers 201919, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Bauer, Michael D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2022. "A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification," IMFS Working Paper Series 165, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    4. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    7. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    10. Ann Xing, Bingxin & Feunou, Bruno & Nongni-Donfack, Morvan & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2024. "U.S. macroeconomic news and low-frequency changes in bond yields in Canada, Sweden and the U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.
    12. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

  24. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    2. Vladimir Borgy & Thomas Laubach & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    3. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Yun, Tack & Kim, Jinsook & Ko, Eunmi, 2012. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," MPRA Paper 44212, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  25. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Zhang, Zheng & Wang, Wenxue & Song, Ciji, 2024. "Quantitative easing and bank risk-taking: Evidence from the federal reserve's large-scale asset purchases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2014. "Applying a Macro-Finance Yield Curve to UK Quantitative Easing," Studies in Economics 1418, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Anna Duszak, 2018. "Does the Way of Financing Quantitative Easing Programmes Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 101-131, June.
    5. Simon Lloyd, 2018. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 763, Bank of England.
    6. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Christina Patterson, 2012. "The forward guidance puzzle," Staff Reports 574, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    9. António Afonso & Francisco Gomes Pereira, 2025. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: Impacts on loans, employment, and investment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 190-220, January.
    10. Mr. Tao Wu, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/189, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Takeshi Kimura & Jouchi Nakajima, 2013. "Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    12. Butt, Nick & Churm, Rohan & McMahon, Michael & Morotz, Arpad & Schanz, Jochen, 2015. "QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 244, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2014. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4731, CESifo.
    14. Andrea Nocera & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Causal effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases on firms' capital structure," Papers 2310.18638, arXiv.org.
    15. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    16. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
    17. Simon Gilchrist & David López-Salido & Egon Zakrajšek, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-109, January.
    18. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion - nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 43-107.
    19. Pudner, Damian, 2025. "Rethinking Monetary Policy: The case for adopting NGDP targeting in Britain," IEA Discussion Papers 136, Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
    20. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    21. Emre Örün, 2020. "Theoritical Seekings in Macroeconomics," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 451-477, December.
    22. Rafael Cezar & Maëva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    23. Mäki-Fränti, Petri & Silvo, Aino & Gulan, Adam & Kilponen, Juha, 2022. "Monetary policy and inequality: The Finnish case," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2022, Bank of Finland.
    24. W. Scott Frame & Eva Steiner, 2022. "Quantitative easing and agency MBS investment and financing choices by mortgage REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 931-965, December.
    25. Ivan Hajdukovic, 2022. "Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies," Post-Print hal-03912666, HAL.
    26. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2013. "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 425, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Ibarra Raúl, 2023. "Effects of the Extraordinary Measures Implemented by Banco de México during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Conditions," Working Papers 2023-03, Banco de México.
    28. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2016. "Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through," Working Paper Series 1978, European Central Bank.
    29. Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2020. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-482, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    31. Duca, John V. & Murphy, Anthony, 2013. "Would a Bagehot style corporate bond backstop have helped counter the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 351-353.
    32. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    33. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    34. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    35. Floro, Danvee & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Can forward guidance be ambiguous yet effective?," Kiel Policy Briefs 65, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    36. Richhild Moessner & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The zero lower bound, forward guidance and how markets respond to news," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    37. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    38. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    39. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series WP16-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    40. Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2022. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-31, December.
    41. Thornton, Daniel L., 2017. "Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of event-study evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 56-74.
    42. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    43. Canetg, Fabio & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2022. "Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    44. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius Rodriguez, 2023. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 111-158, March.
    45. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    46. Nikoletta Poutachidou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The Effect of Quantitative Easing through Google Metrics on US Stock Indices," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, October.
    47. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Fed communication and the zero lower bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    48. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2018. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    49. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "The ECB’s asset purchase programme: A model-based evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-140.
    50. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    51. Smith, A. Lee & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2023. "The financial market effects of unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    52. Gerlach, Petra, 2013. "Euro area CDS spreads in the crisis: The role of open market operations and contagion," Papers WP449, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    53. Eric T. Swanson, 2016. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on asset prices," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 78-100, August.
    54. Julia Schmidt & Marianna Caccavaio & Luisa Carpinelli & Giuseppe Marinelli, 2018. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Evidence from France and Italy," Working papers 689, Banque de France.
    55. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    56. K. P. Prabheesh & Sanjiv Kumar, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    57. Lenza, Michele & Slacalek, Jiri, 2018. "How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2190, European Central Bank.
    58. Adam S. Posen, 2012. "Commentary: methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 289-302.
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    60. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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Articles

  1. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2025. "Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(05), pages 1-6, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Shunsuke Haba & Ryuichiro Hirano & Yuichiro Ito & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2026. "Changes in Perceptions about Monetary Policy: Estimating the Policy Reaction Function Using Market Survey Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 26-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    2. Alexander Cline & Chengcheng Jia, 2025. "Has the Market’s Perception of the FOMC’s Reaction Function Changed since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(12), pages 1-9, November.

  3. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Zoë Arnaut-Hull & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(07), pages 1-6, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Xia, Fan Dora & Zhu, Xingyu Sonya, 2026. "Macroeconomic news and repricing of monetary policy expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

  6. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Michael D. Bauer & Ben S. Bernanke & Eric Milstein, 2023. "Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 77-100, Winter.

    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Roland & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Brüggemann, Axel & Cezar, Rafael & Eijking, Carlijn & Eller, Markus & Fuentes, Alberto & Alves, Joel Graça & Kreitz, Lilian & Marsilli, Clement & Moder, Isabella, 2023. "Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management," Occasional Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    2. Naifar, Nader, 2025. "Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets: A Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Stefan Collignon, 2024. "The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung & Ioannis Kospentaris & Changhyun Lee & Sukjoon Lee, 2025. "Central bank interventions and asset market liquidity," Working Papers 373, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Felix Ward & Casper de Vries, 2026. "The bank leverage response to tax shield changes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-016/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    7. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    8. Bui, Huynh Tuan Duy & Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2025. "Central bank announcements and monitoring portfolio risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Passos, Felipe Vieira & Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique & Loureiro, Paulo Roberto Amorim, 2024. "Monetary policy through the risk-taking channel: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Robert Goodhead & Benedikt Kolb, 2025. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 173-198, January.
    11. Martin T. Bohl & Niklas Humann & Pierre L. Siklos, 2026. "The Monetary Policy–Commodities Nexus: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 1050-1082, April.
    12. Nitin Nair, 2026. "The Effect of Corporate Cash Accumulation on Monetary Policy Transmission: A Stock-flow Consistent Growth Model," Working Papers PKWP2610, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    13. Rodrigo Guimaraes & Gabor Pinter & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1045, Bank of England.
    14. Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina & Brand, Claus & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2026. "Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors," Working Paper Series 3201, European Central Bank.
    15. Karau, Sören, 2024. "Relative monetary policy and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 40/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Walz, Stefan, 2024. "How does the fed affect corporate credit costs? Default risk, creditor segmentation and the post-FOMC drift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 12343, CESifo.
    18. Jean-Marie Dufour & Endong Wang, 2025. "Causal mechanism and mediation analysis for macroeconomics dynamics: a bridge of Granger and Sims causality," Papers 2509.05284, arXiv.org.
    19. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    20. Michael McMahon, 2024. "Lessons for Monetary Policy Communication: Communication, Getting Through and Expectation Formation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2024-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised May 2025.
    21. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Leombroni, Matteo, 2025. "Heterogeneous intermediaries in the transmission of central bank corporate bond purchases," Working Paper Series 3101, European Central Bank.
    22. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    25. Huang, Fei & Zhu, Huiming & Wu, Saijun, 2025. "Green credit, monetary policy, and bank risk-taking," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    26. Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2025. "Global or regional safe assets: evidence from bond substitution patterns," Working Paper Series 3159, European Central Bank.
    27. Chari, Anusha & Dilts Stedman, Karlye & Lundblad, Christian, 2025. "Risk-on/risk-off: Measuring shifts in investor risk bearing capacity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    28. Zoë Arnaut-Hull & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(07), pages 1-6, March.
    29. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    30. Marcella Lucchetta, 2025. "Bank risk in flux: policy interplay under uncertainty," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 379-390, September.
    31. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    32. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    33. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    34. Xudong An & Saket Hegde & Harren Jan & Mete Kilic & Rodney Ramcharan, 2025. "The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking Evidence from the Loan Book," Working Papers 25-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    35. Ralf R. Meisenzahl & Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2025. "The Dollar Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Paper Series WP 2025-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    36. Xiangpo Chen & S. T. Boris Choy & Yuchan Lin, 2026. "Transcending climate barriers: roads to resilience for rural entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 2011-2030, April.
    37. Long, Shaobo & Xue, Ning & Zhang, Yuan, 2025. "The divergence of China’s prices under economic policy uncertainty shock: A time-varying perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    38. Rogers, John & Sun, Bo & Wu, Wenbin, 2025. "Drivers of the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    39. Juan Michelsen, 2026. "Global Risk Shocks in a Small Open Economy and Their Impact on Monetary Policy Surprises," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0093, Berlin School of Economics.
    40. Kuong, John Chi-Fong & O’Donovan, James & Zhang, Jinyuan, 2024. "Monetary policy and fragility in corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    41. Chen, Zhengyang, 2026. "Demystifying monetary policy surprises: Fed response to financial conditions and wait and see for new economic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    42. Sharif, Taimur & Bouteska, Ahmed & Zoynul Abedin, Mohammad & Cotturone, Saulo, 2025. "An enquiry into the monetary policy and stock market shocks in the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    43. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2024. "Navigating Global Uncertainty: Examining the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Cryptocurrency Prices and Volatility in a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 564-590, October.
    44. Willem THORBECKE, 2023. "Sectoral Evidence on Indonesian Economic Performance after the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    45. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    46. Julia Schmidt & Maéva Silvestrini & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2026. "Federal Reserve shocks: which securities really flow?," Working papers 1040, Banque de France.

  9. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(11), pages 1-05, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "The Singularity of the Dual Mandate," Speech 94862, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.

  11. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(28), pages 1-05, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Mubeen Abdur Rehman & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Muhammad Zahid Javed & Haider Mahmood, 2024. "The Connectedness Knowledge from Investors’ Sentiments, Financial Crises, and Trade Policy: An Economic Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 20038-20062, December.

  13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2019. "Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophia Cho & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2025. "The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-6, July.

  15. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    2. Sabes, David & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2023. "Do yield curve inversions predict recessions in the euro area?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    4. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 10449, CESifo.
    5. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Rashad Ahmed & Menzie D. Chinn, 2025. "Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(8), pages 2075-2098, December.
    8. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
    9. Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025. "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series 3122, European Central Bank.
    10. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
    11. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    12. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    13. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    14. Pascal Michaillat, 2025. "Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier," Papers 2506.09664, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    15. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    17. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    18. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    19. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    20. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    21. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
    22. Pyung Kun Chu, 2021. "Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, August.
    23. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    24. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    25. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    26. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.
    27. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    28. Justin Eloriaga & Carlos Pamittan & Vince San Juan & Annika Subido, 2026. "Are there Long-term consequences to China’s Deflationary Bout? The case of ASEAN," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1-36, July.

  17. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Iqbal, Najaf & Teplova, Tamara & Tan, Duojiao, 2024. "Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2019. "A Financial Stress Index for a Highly Dollarized Developing Country: The Case of Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
    9. Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025. "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series 3122, European Central Bank.
    10. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Working Paper Series WP-2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "Tracking Labor Market Stress," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(19), pages 1-6, August.
    14. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    15. Adam Noga & Andrzej Krzysztof Koźmiński & Sergiej Druchin, 2026. "Emocjonalne i zewnętrzne uwarunkowania czterech i pół kryzysu ekonomicznego XXI wieku," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 83-101.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    18. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    19. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    20. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    21. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    22. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2024. "Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    23. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    24. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    26. Ye, Zhen & Zhang, Fangzhu & Coffman, D’Maris & Xia, Senmao & Wang, Zhifeng & Zhu, Zhonghua, 2022. "China’s urban construction investment bond: Contextualising a financial tool for local government," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    27. Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A New Labor Market Stress Indicator," Working Paper Series 2025-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    29. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    30. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    31. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    32. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2018(06), pages 1-6, July.
    33. Qionghua Chu, 2023. "Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8: New Zealand Prospects while Yield Curve Inverts in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Era," Papers 2311.06718, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    34. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    35. Eric Engstrom & Steven A. Sharpe, 2018. "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator : A Less Distorted Mirror," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    37. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    38. Galvani, Valentina & Razek, Noha A., 2026. "The U.S. shale energy sector navigating domestic policies in a fragmenting global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    39. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    40. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Predicting recessions using VIX–yield curve cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 409-422.

  19. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    4. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.

  21. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    2. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

  22. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Working Papers hal-03471799, HAL.
    2. Petr Makovský & Irena Descubes & František Høebík, 2024. "Post-Pandemic Inflation Dynamics: a Comparative Study of the Fiscal Theory in the Czech Republic and France," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 18(2), pages 101-126.
    3. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

  23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Optimal policy and market-based expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez, 2016. "Differing views on long-term inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Woon Gyu Choi & Mr. David Cook, 2018. "Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 2018/072, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    4. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

  25. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    2. Ricardo Sousa & James Yetman, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 41-67, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03794336, HAL.
    4. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    5. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
    6. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Yury Perevyshin, 2024. "Analysts' Inflation Expectations vs Univariate Models of Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 54-76, June.
    8. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    9. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.

  26. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    2. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    3. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
    5. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    6. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Working Paper Series 2279, European Central Bank.
    12. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    13. Adam Kuèera & Evžen Koèenda & Aleš Maršál, 2019. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    14. Junko Koeda & Atushi Sekine, 2021. "Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan," Working Papers 2106, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    15. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    17. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    21. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    22. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    24. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    25. Emiliano Luttini & Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Bank's Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation- Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 762, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    27. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    28. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    29. Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 338-341, January.
    30. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    31. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    33. Gilbert Kofi Adarkwah & Sinziana Dorobantu & Christopher Albert Sabel & Flladina Zilja, 2024. "Geopolitical volatility and subsidiary investments," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 2275-2306, November.
    34. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    36. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    37. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    38. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    39. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    40. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    41. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    42. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    43. van der Wel, Michel & Zhang, Yaoyuan, 2026. "Global evidence on unspanned macro risks in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    44. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    45. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    46. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    47. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    48. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    49. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    50. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    51. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    52. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    53. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    54. Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2018. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," NBER Working Papers 25092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    56. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
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    58. Binder Carola Conces, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, June.
    59. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    60. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    61. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    62. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    63. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  29. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Michael D. Bauer & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2014. "Financial market outlook for inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Working Paper Series 1997, European Central Bank.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Yifan Cao & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Will inflation remain low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Sara Cecchetti & Davide Fantino & Alessandro Notarpietro & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci & Andrea Tiseno & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: indicators, analyses and models used at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 612, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  31. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Options-based expectations of future policy rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.

  33. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zetty Zahureen Mohd Yusoff & Sharifah Heryati Syed Nor & Rozita Naina Mohamed & Mohamed Shahril Mohamad Besir & Nik Rozila Nik Mohd Masdek & Nor Lela Ahmad & Anusara Sawangchai, 2025. "How Economic and Financial Indicators Shape Bond Market Performance in Asia?," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(3), pages 330-345.

  34. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Expectations for monetary policy liftoff," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Fed tapering news and emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    3. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.

  35. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec24.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Aariya Sen, 2026. "Does Perception Matter? The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in Policy Transmission," Working Papers 2026-297, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    3. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Shaikh, Imlak & Vallabh, Priyanka, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and gold price in India: Evidence from Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    7. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    8. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    10. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
    11. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    12. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "What drives cross-market correlations during the United States Q.E.?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
    14. Vural-Yavaş, Çiğdem & Bilyay-Erdogan, Seda, 2026. "Navigating uncertainty: How do interest rate fluctuations affect ESG performance?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Stefano Bonini & Shengyu Huang & Majeed Simaan, 2026. "Watching the FedWatch," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 675-697, April.
    16. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    17. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  36. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may21.

    Cited by:

    1. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    2. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Fed communication and the zero lower bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Kazuo Ueda, 2013. "Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 252-269, December.
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    5. J. Boeckx & N. Cordemans & M. Dossche, 2013. "Causes and implications of the low level of the risk-free interest rate," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 63-88, September.
    6. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.
    7. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2018. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 3, pages 049-095, Central Bank of Chile.

  37. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon Lloyd, 2018. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 763, Bank of England.
    2. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    3. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    4. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    5. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    7. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    8. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "Official demand for US debt: implications for US real rates," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 796, Bank of England.
    9. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
    10. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," CREATES Research Papers 2017-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    22. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can We Use High-frequency Yield Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and Its Communication? Yes and No!," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    24. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    25. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    26. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    27. Andrew Meldrum & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 575, Bank of England.
    28. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    29. Schmidt, Lawrence D.W., 2025. "Climbing and falling off the ladder: Asset pricing implications of labor market event risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    30. Adam Kuèera & Evžen Koèenda & Aleš Maršál, 2019. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    31. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    32. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    34. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    35. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2014. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and (un)expected bond excess returns," Discussion Papers 35/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
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  38. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Signals from unconventional monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.21.

    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.
    2. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2017. "The impact of quantitative easing on aggregate mutual fund flows in the UK," Working Papers 20171704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    4. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    5. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Discussion Papers 10/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Banerjee, Rhythm, 2024. "Shifting Tides: the Effect of Institutional Divestments on the Global Market," MPRA Paper 121922, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2024.
    7. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

  39. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "What moves the interest rate term structure?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.7.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2015/094, International Monetary Fund.

Chapters

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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