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Michael Dominic Bauer

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 17:19:00

Working papers

  1. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," Working Paper Series 2025-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Cotton, 2025. "The Predictability of Global Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers 25-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  2. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Karen Davtyan & Adel R. Kalozdi, 2025. "The Power of Words: Central Bank Green Communication and Performance of Energy Sectors," Working Papers wpdea2515, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

  3. Michael Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," CESifo Working Paper Series 11507, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2025. "Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Hankui Wang & Zhongli Wang & Jiachen Yi, 2025. "Agentic Workflows for Economic Research: Design and Implementation," Papers 2504.09736, arXiv.org.

  4. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Ole Wilms, 2023. "Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 10246, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Li, Tinghui & Shu, Xin & Liao, Gaoke, 2024. "Does corporate greenwashing affect investors' decisions?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Matteo Crosignani & Emilio Osambela & Matthew Pritsker, 2025. "Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market," Staff Reports 1161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Li, Renzhong & Fei, Chen & Fei, Weiyin, 2025. "Impact of government’s support policy on decision-making of platform participants under ESG," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    5. Beyer, Victor & Bauckloh, Michael Tobias, 2024. "Non-standard errors in carbon premia," CFR Working Papers 24-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Duong, An Thi Thuy, 2025. "Resilience or returns: Assessing green equity index performance across market regimes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Xu, Chong & Tao, Miaomiao & Qi, Lingli & Roubaud, David, 2025. "Can green CEOs trigger the green premium effect?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Shen, Jie & Zheng, Haitao & Zhu, Lei, 2025. "Quantifying firm-level carbon risk: A novel emission reduction stress factor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2025. "Understanding the connectedness between US traditional assets and green cryptocurrencies during crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
    13. Zhao, Daping & Wang, Yande & Fang, Yong, 2024. "Greenium and public climate concerns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    14. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," Working Paper Series 2024-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Huij, Joop & Laurs, Dries & van Zanten, Jan Anton, 2025. "The investment implications of sustainable investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    19. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    20. Plante, Michael, 2025. "Investing in the batteries and vehicles of the future: A view through the stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    21. Liêu, Minh-Lý & Dao, Thuy & Nguyen, Tam Huy & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    23. Timothy King & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2025. "ESG crypto coins: speculative assets, or, the future of green money?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-816, August.
    24. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.
    25. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    26. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    27. Minh-Lý Liêu & Thuy Dao & Tam Huy Nguyen & Vu Quang Trinh, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Post-Print hal-04834052, HAL.
    28. Benchora, Inessa & Galanti, Sébastien, 2024. "Verified carbon emissions and stock returns in the EU Emissions Trading System," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    29. Jaccard, Ivan & Kockerols, Thore & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "Green and brown returns in a production economy," Working Paper Series 3030, European Central Bank.
    30. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2024. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128528, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    32. Badía, Guillermo & Cortez, Maria Céu & Silva, Florinda, 2024. "Do investors benefit from investing in stocks of green bond issuers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    33. Dennis, Benjamin N. & İsçan, Talan B., 2026. "A new measure of climate transition risk based on distance to a global emission factor frontier," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    34. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    35. Hambel, Christoph & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2025. "Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    36. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    37. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    38. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    39. Covachev, Svetoslav & Martel, Jocelyn & Brito-Ramos, Sofia, 2025. "Are ESG factors truly unique?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    40. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    41. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    42. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    43. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    44. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    45. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    46. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    47. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.

  5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Dunbar, Kwamie & Treku, Daniel N., 2025. "Do energy transition investment flows aid climate commitments?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Fields, Micah & Lindequist, David, 2024. "Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Florackis, Chris & Muktadir-Al-Mukit, Dewan & Sainani, Sushil & Zhang, Ziyang (John), 2025. "Stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure announcements: The role of institutional investors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Donia Besher & Anirban Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data," Papers 2507.12276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    6. Fischer, Lion & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 198, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    8. Piero Basaglia & Clara Berestycki & Stefano Carattini & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Tobias Kruse, 2025. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Firms' and Investors' Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 11782, CESifo.
    9. Wanidwaranan, Phasin & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and trading behavior: Evidence from aggregate herd behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

  6. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin E. Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10182, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Eric Fischer & Rebecca McCaughrin & Saketh Prazad & Mark Vandergon, 2023. "Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach," Staff Reports 1081, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    3. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Chenyu Hou & Tao Wang, 2025. "Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations," Staff Working Papers 25-31, Bank of Canada.
    5. Zeng, Wendy & Johnson, William & Davis, James D., 2024. "United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections to 2033," Economic Information Bulletin 342469, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Central bank mandates and monetary policy stances: Through the lens of Federal Reserve speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    8. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Nadezhda Ivanova & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Styrin, 2024. "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy: Review of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 119-144, December.
    11. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2025. "How Do We Learn About the Long Run?," Staff Reports 1150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Vincenzo Cuciniello, 2024. "Market perceptions, monetary policy, and credibility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1449, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Benjamin Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2025. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Svec, Justin & Tortorice, Daniel L., 2025. "Asserting independence: Optimal monetary policy when the central bank and political authority disagree," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    16. Zhang, Dongyang & He, Yurun & Lu, Meiting, 2024. "Is energy firms' investment behavior more sensitive on corporate perception of monetary policy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Andrei, Daniel & Hasler, Michael, 2025. "Investor learning about monetary-policy transmission and the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Zhu, Dandan & Wang, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Narrative monetary policy expectation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    20. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    21. Lukas Hack & Klodiana Istrefi & Matthias Meier, 2025. "The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks," Working papers 1021, Banque de France.
    22. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    23. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    24. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.

  7. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Roggenkamp, Hauke, 2025. "A comment on ‘growth and inequality in public good provision’: Testing the robustness and generalizability of dynamic public good games," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

  8. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 9642, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Endong Wang, 2024. "Local projections identify the same policy counterfactuals as empirical and structural models," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    2. Buda, G & Carvalho, V. M. & Corsetti, G & Duarte, J. B. & Hansen, S. & Moura, A. S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & Rodríguez Mora, J. V. & Alves da Silva, G., 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
      • Afonso S. Moura & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Álvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Guilherme Alves da Silva, 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers w202501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2023. "An event-driven bank stress indicator: The case of US regional banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Wang, Jialing & Eom, Young Ho & Jang, Woon Wook, 2024. "Stock market responses to unconventional monetary policy shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev, 2024. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 33195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jarociński, Marek, 2024. "Estimating the Fed’s unconventional policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Beltrán, Felipe, 2025. "Global monetary policy surprises and their transmission to emerging market economies: An external VAR analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Large structural VARs with multiple linear shock and impact inequality restrictions," Papers 2505.19244, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    9. Amina Enkhbold, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks," Staff Working Papers 24-8, Bank of Canada.
    10. Iwasaki, Yuto & Kubota, Hiroyuki & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2025. "Monetary policy, labor force participation, and wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Almerud, Jakob & Krygier, Dominika & Lundvall , Henrik & Njie, Mambuna, 2024. "Measuring Riksbank Monetary Policy: Shocks and Macroeconomic Transmission," Working Paper Series 445, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2024. "Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2089, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Tomas Key & Jamie Lenney, 2024. "The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution," Bank of England working papers 1083, Bank of England.
    14. Jaanika Meriküll & Matthias Rottner, 2025. "Monetary policy and earnings inequality: inflation dependencies," BIS Working Papers 1271, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Mark M. Spiegel, 2025. "The Bank Lending Channel Is Back," Working Paper Series 2025-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    17. Marcin Pietrzak, 2023. "What can monetary policy tell us about Bitcoin?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 545-559, December.
    18. Ma, Zhenyu & Wang, Junbo & Wang, Ning & Xiao, Zehua, 2024. "US monetary policy and real exchange rate dynamics: the role of exchange rate arrangements and capital controls," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    19. Golez, Benjamin & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "Fed information effects: Evidence from the equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Ngambou Djatche, Melchisédek Joslem, 2025. "Unveiling the effects of monetary surprises: Risk-taking and credit supply of U.S. banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    21. Frederick van der Ploeg & Tim Willems, 2024. "Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1065, Bank of England.
    22. Acosta, Miguel & Ajello, Andrea & Bauer, Michael D. & Loria, Francesca & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2025. "Financial market effects of FOMC communication: Evidence from a new event-study database," IMFS Working Paper Series 227, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    23. Christopher D. Cotton, 2025. "The Predictability of Global Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers 25-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    24. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    25. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2025. "Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    26. Marco Graziano & Marius Koechlin & Andreas Tischbirek, 2026. "The Spillovers of LSAPs on Banks in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 12409, CESifo.
    27. Marco Pinchetti & Andrzej Szczepaniak, 2024. "Global Spillovers of the Fed Information Effect," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 773-819, June.
    28. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    29. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2033, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    30. Damast, Dominik & Kubitza, Christian & Sørensen, Jakob Ahm, 2025. "Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy," ICIR Working Paper Series 55/25, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    31. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    32. Alexandra Piller & Marc Schranz & Larissa Schwaller, 2025. "Using Natural Language Processing to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 25.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    33. Diamond, William & Landvoigt, Tim & Sánchez, Germán Sánchez, 2025. "Printing away the mortgages: Fiscal inflation and the post-covid boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    34. Rubén Fernández-Fuertes, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25257, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    35. Boeck, Maximilian & Mori, Lorenzo, 2025. "Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    36. Santiago Camara, 2023. "International Spillovers of ECB Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2306.04562, arXiv.org.
    37. Sylvérie Herbert & Klodiana Istrefi & Béatrice Sagna, 2024. "Coordinating the Message: Media Coverage of Fed News and Market Reactions," Working papers 983, Banque de France.
    38. Willem THORBECKE, 2023. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A sectoral analysis," Discussion papers 23070, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    100. Qi Li & Xu Zhang, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas," Staff Working Papers 23-62, Bank of Canada.
    101. Jonathan Adams & Min Fang & Zheng Liu & Yajie Wang, 2025. "The Rise of AI Pricing: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Firm Performance," Working Paper Series 2024-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    103. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
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  9. Michael D. Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9150, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marco Graziano & Marius Koechlin & Andreas Tischbirek, 2026. "The Spillovers of LSAPs on Banks in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 12409, CESifo.
    3. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Elie Bouri, 2025. "Implied Skewness of the Treasury Yield: A New Predictor for Stock Market Bubbles," Working Papers 202539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Matteo Foglia & Rangan Gupta & Petre Caraiani & Vincenzo Pacelli, 2025. "Time-Varying Spillover of Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles in Stock and Oil Markets," Working Papers 202534, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Ying, Shan & Sheen, Jeffrey & Gu, Xin & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2025. "Does monetary policy uncertainty moderate the transmission of policy shocks to government bond yields?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Phillip An & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Amaze Lusompa, 2025. "How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises," Research Working Paper RWP 25-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Guljanov, Gaygysyz & Mutschler, Willi & Trede, Mark, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," Dynare Working Papers 78, CEPREMAP.
    9. Vrins, Frédéric & Wang, Linqi, 2021. "Asymmetric short-rate model without lower bound," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021006, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    10. Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Gergely Hudecz & Edmund Moshammer & Marco Onofri, 2024. "Option-implied bond spread risk," Working Papers 66, European Stability Mechanism, revised 25 Nov 2024.
    12. Camara, Santiago, 2025. "Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    14. Pin Wang & Guojing Wang & Yang Yang & Jing Yao, 2025. "Tail Conditional Expectation and Tail Variance for Extended Generalized Skew-Elliptical Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-24, September.
    15. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2024. "Modeling volatility in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    17. Xinyang Li, 2025. "Tail risk and Flight-to-Safety," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 386-410, July.
    18. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    19. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.

  10. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8151, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Hamza Bennani, 2023. "Overconfidence of the chair of the Federal Reserve and market expectations: Evidence based on media coverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3403-3419, July.
    2. Ha,Jongrim & Liu,Haiqin & Rogers,John, 2023. "Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10582, The World Bank.
    3. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    9. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    10. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Refet S. Gürkaynak & A. Hakan Kara & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Sang Seok Lee, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Sui-Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Communication in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Malaysia," Working Papers wp44, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    15. Yohei Yamamoto & Naoko Hara, 2022. "Identifying factor‐augmented vector autoregression models via changes in shock variances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 722-745, June.
    16. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Kaminskas, Rokas & Jurkšas, Linas, 2024. "ECB communication sentiments: How do they relate to the economic environment and financial markets?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    21. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    22. Christopher D. Cotton, 2022. "Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects?," Working Papers 22-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    23. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    24. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    25. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1719-1753, June.
    26. Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    27. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    28. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    29. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    30. Lihui Tian & Haifeng Wu & Qichang Xie, 2025. "The impact of FOMC announcements on cryptocurrency risk spillover across different market conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 1035-1069, August.
    31. Tim D. Maurer & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Working Papers 2020-10, Swiss National Bank.

  11. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Peng, Pei & Guo, Yangli & Huang, Dengshi & Wang, Hui, 2025. "Climate change risk and bond risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Emanuel Moench & Robin Schaal, 2025. "The impact of extreme weather events on the term structure of sovereign debt," Working Papers 11088, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Ma, Feng & Guo, Yangli & Luo, Qin & Zhong, Juandan, 2025. "Forecasting corporate bond returns amid climate change risk: A dynamic forecast combination approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Meng, Weizhen & Chen, Tuyue & Yang, Jinqiang, 2025. "The economic and policy consequences of carbon emissions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Fangzhi Wang, 2024. "Towards a representative social cost of carbon," Papers 2404.04989, arXiv.org.
    8. Bauer, Adam Michael & Hallegatte, Stephane & McIsaac, Florent, 2024. "The Timing versus Allocation Trade-off in Politically Constrained Climate Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10971, The World Bank.
    9. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    10. Yuan, Xue & Dong, Yu & Liang, Liang & Wei, Yuting, 2025. "The impact of carbon emission trading scheme policy on information asymmetry in the stock market: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Liu, Congcong & Luo, Danglun, 2025. "Feeling the heat: The impact of temperature anomalies on corporate investment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.
    14. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”," NBER Working Papers 27013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2025. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Golez, Benjamin & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "Fed information effects: Evidence from the equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Ngambou Djatche, Melchisédek Joslem, 2025. "Unveiling the effects of monetary surprises: Risk-taking and credit supply of U.S. banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Bernardino Adão & Sandra Gomes & Laura Alpizar, 2025. "On how to assess the impact of monetary policy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    10. Flavia Corneli & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: the Chinese footprint," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 772, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Julian di Giovanni & John H. Rogers, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms," Staff Reports 1039, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Robin Braun & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tuli Saha, 2023. "Measuring monetary policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event‑Study Database," Bank of England working papers 1050, Bank of England.
    15. Refet S. Gürkaynak & A. Hakan Kara & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Sang Seok Lee, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Golez, Benjamin & Kelly, Peter & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "FOMC news and segmented markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    20. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Viktoriia Bannikova & Sofya Kolesnik, 2025. "Assessing the predictability of market interest rate changes on Central Bank of Russia press release days," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 77, pages 25-45.
    22. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    23. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    24. Nakamura, Fumitaka & Sudo, Nao & Sugisaki, Yu, 2024. "Assessing monetary policy surprises in Japan by high frequency identification," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    25. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2024. "Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress during Supply- versus Demand-Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    27. Keweloh, Sascha A. & Hetzenecker, Stephan & Seepe, Andre, 2023. "Monetary policy and information shocks in a block-recursive SVAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    28. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    29. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    30. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    31. Dimitris Korobilis, 2025. "Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs," Papers 2505.06649, arXiv.org.
    32. Luca Baldo & Marco Bernardini, 2025. "What drives policy rate expectations? Evidence from the post-pandemic monetary policy cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1500, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    34. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    35. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    36. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    37. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Fed Information Effect and Firm-Level Investment: Evidence and Theory," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-6a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised Mar 2024.
    38. Mariana García-Schmidt, 2024. "Is the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Alive in Emerging Markets?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1017, Central Bank of Chile.
    39. List, Sophia & Metiu, Norbert, 2025. "Monetary policy, central bank information, and bank lending: Evidence from German banks," Discussion Papers 06/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Kokonas, Nikolaos & Rousakis, Michalis & Smyrniotis, Efthymios, 2025. "Controlling inflation with central bank news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    41. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland E. Farmer, 2024. "Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Martin Baumgaertner, 2022. "Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202203, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    43. Kelly Shue & Richard Townsend & Chen Wang, 2024. "Categorical Thinking About Interest Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 11558, CESifo.
    44. Davig, Troy & Foerster, Andrew, 2023. "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    45. Kostika, Eleftheria & Siameti, Panagiota & Dotsis, George, 2025. "Monetary policy effects on freight rates of dry bulk vessels," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    46. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2025. "When Is Liquidity Bad?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_723, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    47. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Measuring multiple monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    48. Zhao Han & Chengcheng Jia, 2023. "Asymmetric Information, Two-Way Learning, and the Fed Information Effect," Working Papers 23-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 02 Oct 2025.
    49. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Særkjær, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Narrative Restrictions: Rules Matter," CESifo Working Paper Series 12246, CESifo.
    50. Ariadne Checo & Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," BIS Working Papers 1170, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    52. Nguyen, Lam, 2025. "Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs with incomplete identification: Re-evaluating the validity of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    53. Franconi, Alessandro & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "Monetary Policy across the Wealth Distribution," SocArXiv hn3pc, Center for Open Science.

  13. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-based monetary policy uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7621, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    2. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Namrata Narain & Namrata Narain, 2026. "The Market Impact of Fed Communications: The Role of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 22(1), pages 313-389, January.
    4. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca & Shen, Aizhong, 2022. "It is not just What you say, but How you say it: Why tonality matters in central bank communication," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 216-231.
    6. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Negin Sanadgol, 2023. "Investigating the monetary policy risk channel based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model: Empirical evidence from Iran," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-28, October.
    9. Griller, Stefan & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Financial markets and legal challenges to unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Li, Luyang & Yin, Ximing & Yu, Deshui, 2025. "On the time-varying relation between monetary policy uncertainty and bond risk premia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Ying, Shan & Sheen, Jeffrey & Gu, Xin & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2025. "Does monetary policy uncertainty moderate the transmission of policy shocks to government bond yields?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà, Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2025. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    16. Gao, Jieying & Qin, Qi & Zhou, Shengjie, 2025. "Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    17. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
      • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    18. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    19. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2019. "Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 25817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois, 2020. "Central banks in parliaments: a text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 2442, European Central Bank.
    21. Lin, Jianhao & Fan, Jiacheng & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Information Dissemination and the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    22. Griffa, Cristina & Oliver i Vert, Miquel & Tatlow, Benjamin & Zhong, Yaolang, 2023. "Replication Report: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," I4R Discussion Paper Series 76, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    23. Matsumoto, Ryo & Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "Central Bank Information Effects in Japan : The Role of Uncertainty Channel," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-126, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Eric Vansteenberghe, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Credit Supply," Papers 2512.12255, arXiv.org.
    25. Ma, Yong & Wang, Mengyuan, 2024. "Monetary policy shock and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    26. Wang, Jiqiang & Dai, Peng-Fei & Zhang, Xuewen, 2024. "Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    27. Gergely Hudecz & Edmund Moshammer & Marco Onofri, 2024. "Option-implied bond spread risk," Working Papers 66, European Stability Mechanism, revised 25 Nov 2024.
    28. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    29. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    30. Kroencke, Tim-Alexander & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC risk shift," SAFE Working Paper Series 302, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    31. Refk Selmi, 2025. "Changes in Inflation Expectations and Firm Performance during Recent Global Economic Shocks," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 26(2), pages 731-764, November.
    32. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    33. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2025. "What are the macroeconomic effects of state-dependent forward guidance?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    34. Alessandro Barbera & Dora Xia & Sonya Zhu, 2023. "The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement and monetary policy transmission," BIS Working Papers 1114, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    36. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    37. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    38. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    39. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    40. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    41. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    42. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    43. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
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    46. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    47. Rui Guo & Dun Jia & Xi Sun, 2023. "Information Acquisition, Uncertainty Reduction, and Pre-Announcement Premium in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1077-1118.
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    49. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and green investment decisions: A cross-national spillover perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    50. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    51. Baxa, Jaromir & Buliskeria, Nino & Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Havrankova, Zuzana & Kundu, Suranjana, 2023. "A comment on Bauer, Lakdawala, Mueller: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 77, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    52. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  14. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian, 2019. "The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r," CEPR Discussion Papers 14201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Galo Nuno & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars:Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Rabitsch-Schilcher, Katrin & Marsal, Ales & Kaszab, Lorant, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 350, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Jia Li & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2334, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    7. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    8. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    10. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    11. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
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    15. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    16. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    17. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    18. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    19. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    20. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Farmer, Leland E & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2024. "Learning about the Long Run," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tn1s1hp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    22. Thomas Nitschka & Shajivan Satkurunathan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," Working Papers 2021-08, Swiss National Bank.
    23. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
    25. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    26. Duffy, James A. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Wycherley, Sam, 2025. "Cointegration with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
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    28. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    29. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    30. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch, 2020. "Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp304, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    32. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    33. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    34. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    35. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
    37. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    38. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    39. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    40. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Linlin Niu & Haoran Bai & Zhiwu Hong, 2026. "Geopolitical Risks, Inflation Pressure, and the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve," Working Papers 2025-09-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    42. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 2019," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    44. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    45. Francesca Lilla & Gabriele Zinna, 2025. "Survey-based daily estimates of inflation expectations and risk premia in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Adam Kucera & Milan Szabo, 2019. "Estimating the neutral Czech government bond yield curve," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    47. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    48. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    49. Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    51. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    52. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    53. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    54. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    55. Elizabeth Kopits & Daniel Kraynak & Bryan Parthum & Lisa Rennels & David Smith & Elizabeth Spink & Joseph Perla & Nshan Burns, 2025. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies," Papers 2509.00212, arXiv.org.
    56. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    57. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    58. Gao, Han & Kulish, Mariano & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    59. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    60. Posch, Olaf, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor rule," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181616, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    61. Ferrando, Annalisa & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vives, Xavier, 2021. "Product market structure and monetary policy: evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 2632, European Central Bank.
    62. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    63. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    64. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & McNeil, James, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    65. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    66. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    67. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    69. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    70. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    71. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    72. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    73. Asriyan, Vladimir & Laeven, Luc & Martin, Alberto & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Vanasco, Victoria, 2025. "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: lessons from general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 3070, European Central Bank.
    74. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    75. Kaebi, Mohammed Mehdi & Ferreira Batista Martins, Igor, 2025. "Long-Run Interest Rate Differentials and the Profitability of Currency Carry," Working Papers 2025:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
    76. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2021. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," Working Paper Series 2019-2, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    77. Rebonato, Riccardo & Nyholm, Ken, 2025. "Why does the Cochrane–Piazzesi model predict treasury returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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    81. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
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  15. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England working papers 435, Bank of England.
    2. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 12343, CESifo.
    5. Andrew Meldrum & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
    6. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    7. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    8. Acosta, Miguel & Ajello, Andrea & Bauer, Michael D. & Loria, Francesca & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2025. "Financial market effects of FOMC communication: Evidence from a new event-study database," IMFS Working Paper Series 227, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    10. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    13. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    15. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    18. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    21. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    22. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    24. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    25. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    26. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    27. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    28. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    29. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    30. Anne Balter & Antoon Pelsser & Peter Schotman, 2013. "Extrapolating the term structure of interest rates with parameter uncertainty," Papers 1312.5073, arXiv.org.
    31. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    33. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    34. Kick, Heinrich, 2017. "Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant," Working Paper Series 1992, European Central Bank.
    35. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," Working Paper Series 2025-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Price pressures in the UK index-linked market: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 968, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    37. Rogier Quaedvlieg & Peter Schotman, 2022. "Hedging Long-Term Liabilities [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 505-538.
    38. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.
    39. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.

  16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5187, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    3. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    4. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    5. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Ting-Jung Lee & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2025. "Option-Implied Zero-Coupon Yields: Unifying Bond and Equity Markets," Papers 2512.10823, arXiv.org.
    8. Yuanzhi Wang & Xinbei Wei & Qunzi Zhang, 2025. "Asymmetric Commodity Tails and Index Futures Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 247-265, March.
    9. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "How Macro Transactions Describe the Evolution and Fluctuation of Financial Variables," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    11. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    12. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    14. Siyu Bie & Francis X. Diebold & Jingyu He & Junye Li, 2024. "Machine Learning and the Yield Curve: Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching," Papers 2408.12863, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    15. Dongho Song, 2016. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 915, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Jul 2016.
    16. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    18. Min Wei, 2019. "Comments on "Determinants of Asia-pacific government bond yields"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 41-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    20. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    21. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    23. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    24. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    25. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    27. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    28. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    29. Backwell, Alex, 2021. "Unspanned stochastic volatility from an empirical and practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    30. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    31. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    32. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    33. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    34. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2024. "Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    35. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    36. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    38. Moura, Rubens, 2022. "MultiATSM: An R Package for Arbitrage-free Multicountry Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates Models with Unspanned Macroeconomic Risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).

  17. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5541, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    3. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity Tail Risk in the Treasury Bond Market," Papers 2007.05933, arXiv.org.
    4. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    5. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    8. H. Rad & R. Low & J. Miffre & R. Faff, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Post-Print hal-04322519, HAL.
    9. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    10. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2022. "Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 991-1019, June.
    11. Aşty Al-Jaaf, 2022. "Dividend predictability and higher moment risk premia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 83-99, March.
    12. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    13. Ting-Jung Lee & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2025. "Option-Implied Zero-Coupon Yields: Unifying Bond and Equity Markets," Papers 2512.10823, arXiv.org.
    14. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    15. Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    16. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    17. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    18. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Santis, Roberto A. De, 2018. "Unobservable systematic risk, economic activity and stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 51-69.
    20. Valentin Haddad & David Sraer, 2020. "The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2465-2502, October.
    21. Su, Hao & Ying, Chengwei & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2022. "Disaster risk matters in the bond market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    22. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das "Quantitative Easing" der FED," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 40, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    23. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    24. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    25. Michael D. Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 28954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Longzhen Fan & Xin Hou & Qian Sun, 2023. "A monetary policy–based explanation of swap spreads in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1645-1667, November.
    27. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    28. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    29. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    30. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    31. Jungbin Hwang & Feifan Wang, 2025. "Sieve Bootstrap Approach to Robust Term Premia Analysis," Working papers 2025-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    32. Billio, M. & Busetto, F. & Dufour, A. & Varotto, S., 2025. "Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    33. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    36. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    37. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
    38. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    39. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    40. Gubareva, Mariya & Borges, Maria Rosa, 2020. "Switching interest rate sensitivity regimes of U.S. Corporates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    41. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    42. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    43. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    45. Don H. Kim & Marcelo Ochoa, 2021. "International Yield Spillovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Federico Calogero Nucera, 2022. "Economic fundamentals and stock market valuation: a CAPE-based approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1393, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    47. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    48. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan, 2018. "Equity/bond yield correlation and the FED model: evidence of switching behaviour from the G7 markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 413-428, October.
    49. Traut, J. & Simonov, A. & Meitner, M., 2022. "Quantifying Alpha of Active Managers: A Case Study on Factor-Based Performance Attribution in Fixed-Income," Research Journal for Applied Management (RJAM), International School of Management (ISM), Dortmund, vol. 3(1), pages 85-115.
    50. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    51. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    52. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    53. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    54. Fernandes, Marcelo & Nunes, Clemens & Reis, Yuri, 2021. "What Drives the Nominal Yield Curve in Brazil?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    55. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    56. Wan, Runqing & Xing, Bingxin Ann, 2025. "Can switching between predictive models and the historical average improve bond return predictability?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    57. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Bond Risk Premia Predictability Test in the Quantiles," Papers 2410.03557, arXiv.org.
    58. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Inference for Multiple Predictive Regressions with an Application on Bond Risk Premia," Papers 2401.01064, arXiv.org.
    59. Constantino Hevia & Martín Sola & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    60. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2021. "Simple tests for stock return predictability with good size and power properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 198-214.
    61. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    62. Wan, Runqing & Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2022. "Real-time Bayesian learning and bond return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 114-130.
    63. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    64. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    65. Filippo Busetto, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    66. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    67. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    68. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    69. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2024. "Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    70. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    71. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    72. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    73. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
    74. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    75. Mariya Gubareva & Benjamin Keddad, 2022. "Emerging markets financial sector debt: A Markov‐switching study of interest rate sensitivity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3851-3863, October.
    76. Hansen, Jorge Wolfgang, 2025. "Unspanned stochastic volatility in the linear-rational square-root model: Evidence from the Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    77. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
    78. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
    79. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    80. Joel R. Barber, 2021. "Empirical analysis of term structure shifts," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 360-371, April.

  18. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and the News," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The credibility of the ECB's inflation target in times of Corona: New evidence from an online survey," Discussion Papers 2020/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 2021/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2021. "Expectation spillovers and the return of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Lansing, Kevin J., 2025. "A simple measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in FIRE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    7. Matthieu Picault & Julien Pinter & Thomas Renault, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Post-Print hal-03810447, HAL.
    8. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    9. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    10. Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Market Reading of Central Bankers Words. A High-Frequency Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    11. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    12. Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "Central bank communication and financial markets: New high-frequency evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 336-345.
    13. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
    14. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2023. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1937-1953, October.
    15. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Nautz, Dieter & Netsunajew, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Short and in the Long Run," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    19. Tetiana Yukhymenko, 2021. "Role of the Media in the Inflation Expectation Formation Process," IHEID Working Papers 13-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Ilek, Alex, 2021. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 516-530.
    21. Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    22. Zhuoshi Liu & Elisabetta Vangelista & Iryna Kaminska & Jon Relleen, 2015. "The informational content of market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from govenment bonds and inflation swaps in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 551, Bank of England.
    23. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    24. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    25. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    26. Petra Gerlach & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2017. "Computing long‐term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation markets," Working Papers 2017-09, Swiss National Bank.
    27. Diana Gabrielyan & Lenno Uusküla, 2022. "Inflation Expectations And Consumption With Machine Learning," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 142, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    28. Binder, Carola Conces, 2021. "Household expectations and the release of macroeconomic statistics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    29. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    30. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    31. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    32. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264094, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    33. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    34. Rodrigo Barria & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    35. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    36. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    37. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.

  19. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Shadow Rates as a Measure of the Monetary Policy Stance: Some International Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9839, CESifo.
    2. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.

  20. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    3. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    4. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Staff Reports 819, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    10. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    13. Chunping Liu & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2025. "Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 983-1006, January.
    14. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    15. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    17. Roussellet, Guillaume, 2025. "The term structure of macroeconomic risks at the effective lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    18. Dimitriadis, Timo & Patton, Andrew J. & Schmidt, Patrick W., 2020. "Testing forecast rationality for measures of central tendency," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 12-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Pass‐through of shocks into different U.S. prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1300-1315, August.
    20. Francis, Neville R. & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 309-321.
    21. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    22. Garcia Revelo, José David & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2020. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: The need to dance the Tango in harmony," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    23. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. José García Revelo & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge, 2025. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working papers 1018, Banque de France.
    25. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    26. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    27. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Conventional and unconventional shadow rates and the US state-level stock returns: Evidence from non-stationary heterogeneous panels," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    28. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2018-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    32. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Hahn, Jaehoon & Jang, Woon Wook & Kim, Seongjin, 2017. "Risk aversion, uncertainty, and monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 118-122.
    34. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    35. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    36. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," AMSE Working Papers 1932, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    37. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Efficient Jacobian Evaluations for Estimating Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-77, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    38. Dang, Van Dan & Huynh, Japan, 2022. "Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    39. Tomoo Inoue & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "International Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies of Major Central Banks," Working Papers hal-02938960, HAL.
    40. Kentaro Kikuchi, 2024. "A term structure interest rate model with the Brownian bridge lower bound," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 301-328, September.
    41. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    42. Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    43. Sheheryar Malik & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Bank of England working papers 518, Bank of England.
    44. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    46. Phillip An & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Amaze Lusompa, 2025. "How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises," Research Working Paper RWP 25-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    47. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
    48. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    49. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2016. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 114-133.
    50. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    51. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Hernández Juan R. & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "Capital Flows to Emerging Economies and Global Risk Aversion during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2021-17, Banco de México.
    52. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    53. Junttila, Juha & Nguyen, Vo Cao Sang, 2022. "Impacts of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability: Evidence from euro area," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    54. Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper 80542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Dossani, Asad, 2024. "Monetary policy and currency variance risk premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    56. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    57. Camilla Lupiani, 2024. "Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24218, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    58. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    60. Atsuki Hirata & Sohei Kaihatsu & Yoshiyasu Kasai & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jouchi Nakajima, 2024. "Effects and Side Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Shadow Rate Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-21, Bank of Japan.
    61. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    62. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    63. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    64. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    65. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 52, november.
    66. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    67. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    68. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Faster Solutions for Black Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    71. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2019. "The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    73. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    74. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 71432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    76. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    77. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    78. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok, 2023. "Monetary policy inertia and the paradox of flexibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    79. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    80. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
    81. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    82. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    83. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2017. "Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1991, European Central Bank.
    84. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    85. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    86. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    87. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    88. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    89. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    90. Jae‐Yun Jun & Victor Lebreton & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2021. "Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 367-386, April.
    91. MacDonald, Margaux & Popiel, Michal, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274693, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    92. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    93. Rui WANG, 2019. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Measures of Japan in Shadow/ZLB Term Structure Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(6), pages 126-139, November.
    94. Jose David GARCIA REVELO & Yannick LUCOTTE & Florian PRADINES-JOBET, 2019. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policies : The Need to Dance the Tango in Harmony," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2691, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    95. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    96. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the expected duration of the zero lower bound in DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    97. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A Tractable Framework for Zero-Lower-Bound Gaussian Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    98. Lealand Morin & Ying Shang, 2021. "Federal Reserve policy after the zero lower bound: an indirect inference approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 2105-2124, April.
    99. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    100. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    101. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    102. Christian Grisse, 2023. "Lower Bound Uncertainty and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 619-634, March.
    103. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    104. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "The stabilizing effect of the zero lower bound: A perspective of interest rate target zones," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 61-67.
    105. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    106. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    107. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
    108. Yakov Ben‐Haim & Jan Willem Van den End, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty in the natural rate of interest: Info‐gap as guide for monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3228-3245, July.
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    122. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England.
    123. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
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  21. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Manna & Stefano Nobili, 2018. "Banks' holdings of and trading in government bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1166, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
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  22. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    3. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Movements in the US Government Bond Risk Premia," Working Papers 201919, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    8. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Ann Xing, Bingxin & Feunou, Bruno & Nongni-Donfack, Morvan & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2024. "U.S. macroeconomic news and low-frequency changes in bond yields in Canada, Sweden and the U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
    11. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.

  23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    277. Pinzon-Puerto, Freddy & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2025. "Foreign exchange intervention: A comparative analysis of announcements versus trades," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    278. Riedler, Jesper & Koziol, Tina, 2021. "Scaling, unwinding and greening QE in a calibrated portfolio balance model," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-086, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    279. Bats, Joost & Hoondert, Jurian J.A., 2022. "The relationship between central bank auctions and bill market liquidity," Working Paper Series 2708, European Central Bank.
    280. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    281. Chadha, J. S. & Turner, P. & Zampolli, F., 2025. "The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt Maturity: Solving the Bond Conundrum," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2519, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    282. Montano Pierina & Quineche, Ricardo & Tipo, Royer, 2025. "Distributional Patterns in US Monetary Transmission: Quantile Cointegration Evidence," EconStor Preprints 323756, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    283. Christopher Hanes, 2019. "Quantitative Easing in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1169-1207, August.
    284. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    285. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    286. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    287. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, 2014. "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    288. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    289. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    290. J. Benson Durham, 2013. "More on U.S. Treasury term premiums: spot and expected measures," Staff Reports 658, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    291. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
    292. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2021. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 635-676, June.
    293. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    294. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    295. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Working papers 697, Banque de France.
    296. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    297. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 2021-03, CRESE.
    298. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2023. "New Trends In The European Central Bank Monetary Policy," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 17(1), pages 39-60.
    299. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.
    300. Chang, Jui-Chuan Della & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2018. "The asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 15-28.

  24. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    2. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    3. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Vladimir Borgy & Thomas Laubach & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    6. Yun, Tack & Kim, Jinsook & Ko, Eunmi, 2012. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," MPRA Paper 44212, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Articles

  1. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2025. "Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(05), pages 1-6, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Cline & Chengcheng Jia, 2025. "Has the Market’s Perception of the FOMC’s Reaction Function Changed since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(12), pages 1-9, November.

  3. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Michael D. Bauer & Ben S. Bernanke & Eric Milstein, 2023. "Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 77-100, Winter.

    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Roland & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Brüggemann, Axel & Cezar, Rafael & Eijking, Carlijn & Eller, Markus & Fuentes, Alberto & Alves, Joel Graça & Kreitz, Lilian & Marsilli, Clement & Moder, Isabella, 2023. "Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management," Occasional Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    2. Stefan Collignon, 2024. "The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, June.
    3. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    4. Bui, Huynh Tuan Duy & Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2025. "Central bank announcements and monitoring portfolio risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 12343, CESifo.
    6. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Huang, Fei & Zhu, Huiming & Wu, Saijun, 2025. "Green credit, monetary policy, and bank risk-taking," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Rogers, John & Sun, Bo & Wu, Wenbin, 2025. "Drivers of the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    12. Passos, Felipe Vieira & Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique & Loureiro, Paulo Roberto Amorim, 2024. "Monetary policy through the risk-taking channel: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Rodrigo Guimaraes & Gabor Pinter & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    14. Walz, Stefan, 2024. "How does the fed affect corporate credit costs? Default risk, creditor segmentation and the post-FOMC drift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Chari, Anusha & Dilts Stedman, Karlye & Lundblad, Christian, 2025. "Risk-on/risk-off: Measuring shifts in investor risk bearing capacity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    17. Xudong An & Saket Hegde & Harren Jan & Mete Kilic & Rodney Ramcharan, 2025. "The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking Evidence from the Loan Book," Working Papers 25-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    19. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung & Ioannis Kospentaris & Changhyun Lee & Sukjoon Lee, 2025. "Central bank interventions and asset market liquidity," Working Papers 373, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    20. Robert Goodhead & Benedikt Kolb, 2025. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 173-198, January.
    21. Michael McMahon, 2024. "Lessons for Monetary Policy Communication: Communication, Getting Through and Expectation Formation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2024-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised May 2025.
    22. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    23. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    24. Ralf R. Meisenzahl & Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2025. "The Dollar Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Kuong, John Chi-Fong & O’Donovan, James & Zhang, Jinyuan, 2024. "Monetary policy and fragility in corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    26. Sharif, Taimur & Bouteska, Ahmed & Zoynul Abedin, Mohammad & Cotturone, Saulo, 2025. "An enquiry into the monetary policy and stock market shocks in the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    27. Willem THORBECKE, 2023. "Sectoral Evidence on Indonesian Economic Performance after the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    28. Naifar, Nader, 2025. "Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets: A Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    29. Karau, Sören, 2024. "Relative monetary policy and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 40/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Jean-Marie Dufour & Endong Wang, 2025. "Causal mechanism and mediation analysis for macroeconomics dynamics: a bridge of Granger and Sims causality," Papers 2509.05284, arXiv.org.
    31. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Leombroni, Matteo, 2025. "Heterogeneous intermediaries in the transmission of central bank corporate bond purchases," Working Paper Series 3101, European Central Bank.
    32. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," Working Paper Series 2025-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    33. Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2025. "Global or regional safe assets: evidence from bond substitution patterns," Working Paper Series 3159, European Central Bank.
    34. Zoë Arnaut-Hull & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(07), pages 1-6, February.
    35. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    36. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    37. Long, Shaobo & Xue, Ning & Zhang, Yuan, 2025. "The divergence of China’s prices under economic policy uncertainty shock: A time-varying perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    38. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2024. "Navigating Global Uncertainty: Examining the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Cryptocurrency Prices and Volatility in a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 564-590, October.

  6. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(11), pages 1-05, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "The Singularity of the Dual Mandate," Speech 94862, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.

  11. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(28), pages 1-05, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Mubeen Abdur Rehman & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Muhammad Zahid Javed & Haider Mahmood, 2024. "The Connectedness Knowledge from Investors’ Sentiments, Financial Crises, and Trade Policy: An Economic Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 20038-20062, December.

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2019. "Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophia Cho & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2025. "The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-6, July.

  14. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Umar, Zaghum & Iqbal, Najaf & Teplova, Tamara & Tan, Duojiao, 2024. "Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025. "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series 3122, European Central Bank.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    5. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Qionghua Chu, 2023. "Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8: New Zealand Prospects while Yield Curve Inverts in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Era," Papers 2311.06718, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    8. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    10. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Predicting recessions using VIX–yield curve cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 409-422.
    11. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
    12. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Working Paper Series WP-2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    14. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    15. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    18. Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2021. "Text-based recession probabilities," Working Paper Series 2516, European Central Bank.
    19. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    23. Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A New Labor Market Stress Indicator," Working Paper Series 2025-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    25. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2020-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2022.
    26. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    27. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    28. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    29. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2019. "A Financial Stress Index for a Highly Dollarized Developing Country: The Case of Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "Tracking Labor Market Stress," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(19), pages 1-6, August.
    31. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    32. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2024. "Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    33. Ye, Zhen & Zhang, Fangzhu & Coffman, D’Maris & Xia, Senmao & Wang, Zhifeng & Zhu, Zhonghua, 2022. "China’s urban construction investment bond: Contextualising a financial tool for local government," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    34. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    35. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    36. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2018(06), pages 1-6, July.
    37. Eric Engstrom & Steven A. Sharpe, 2018. "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator : A Less Distorted Mirror," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.

  15. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    2. Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025. "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series 3122, European Central Bank.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    4. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    5. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    6. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    7. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
    8. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    10. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    11. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
    12. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    14. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    17. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    18. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    19. Pyung Kun Chu, 2021. "Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, August.
    20. Sabes, David & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2023. "Do yield curve inversions predict recessions in the euro area?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    22. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
    23. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2023. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Staff Working Papers 23-23, Bank of Canada.
    24. Pascal Michaillat, 2025. "Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier," Papers 2506.09664, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    25. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    26. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.

  18. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    5. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.

  20. Michael D. Bauer, 2017. "Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    2. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

  21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Petr Makovský & Irena Descubes & František Høebík, 2024. "Post-Pandemic Inflation Dynamics: a Comparative Study of the Fiscal Theory in the Czech Republic and France," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 18(2), pages 101-126.
    2. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03471799, HAL.
    3. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

  22. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Optimal policy and market-based expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez, 2016. "Differing views on long-term inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    3. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Woon Gyu Choi & Mr. David Cook, 2018. "Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 2018/072, International Monetary Fund.

  24. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
    2. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    3. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    4. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03794336, HAL.
    5. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    6. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Yury Perevyshin, 2024. "Analysts' Inflation Expectations vs Univariate Models of Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 54-76, June.
    8. Ricardo Sousa & James Yetman, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 41-67, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.

  26. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Options-based expectations of future policy rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    2. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  30. Michael D. Bauer & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2014. "Financial market outlook for inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Sara Cecchetti & Davide Fantino & Alessandro Notarpietro & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci & Andrea Tiseno & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: indicators, analyses and models used at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 612, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Working Paper Series 1997, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Yifan Cao & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Will inflation remain low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  31. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
    2. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    3. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Working Paper Series 2279, European Central Bank.
    6. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    7. Junko Koeda & Atushi Sekine, 2021. "Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan," Working Papers 2106, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 338-341, January.
    9. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    13. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Binder Carola Conces, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    16. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    17. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    22. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2015. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 752, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Emiliano Luttini & Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Bank's Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation- Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 762, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Gilbert Kofi Adarkwah & Sinziana Dorobantu & Christopher Albert Sabel & Flladina Zilja, 2024. "Geopolitical volatility and subsidiary investments," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 2275-2306, November.
    26. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    27. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    30. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    31. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    32. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    33. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    34. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    35. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    36. Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    37. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    38. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    39. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    40. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    41. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    42. Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2018. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," NBER Working Papers 25092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    44. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    45. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    46. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    47. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    48. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    49. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    50. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    51. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    52. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    53. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    54. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    55. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    56. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    57. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    58. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    59. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    60. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    61. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    62. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.

  32. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.

    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Zetty Zahureen Mohd Yusoff & Sharifah Heryati Syed Nor & Rozita Naina Mohamed & Mohamed Shahril Mohamad Besir & Nik Rozila Nik Mohd Masdek & Nor Lela Ahmad & Anusara Sawangchai, 2025. "How Economic and Financial Indicators Shape Bond Market Performance in Asia?," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(3), pages 330-345.

  33. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Expectations for monetary policy liftoff," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Fed tapering news and emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    3. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    4. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  34. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may21.

    Cited by:

    1. J. Boeckx & N. Cordemans & M. Dossche, 2013. "Causes and implications of the low level of the risk-free interest rate," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 63-88, September.
    2. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.
    3. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    4. Kazuo Ueda, 2013. "Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 252-269, December.
    5. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Fed communication and the zero lower bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    7. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2018. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 3, pages 049-095, Central Bank of Chile.

  35. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    2. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    4. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Andrew Meldrum & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
    11. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    12. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    13. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    17. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Jonathan Hambur & Richard Finlay, 2018. "Affine Endeavour: Estimating a Joint Model of the Nominal and Real Term Structures of Interest Rates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    20. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    21. El-Shagi, Makram, 2019. "Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 242-246.
    22. Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2015. "Approximate Non-Similar critical values based tests vs Maximized Monte Carlo tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 387-394.
    23. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
    25. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Trade effects of silver price fluctuations in 19th-century China: A macro approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    26. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    27. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    28. Xiaojin Sun & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on local housing markets: Do regulations matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 989-1015, May.
    29. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    30. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    31. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An & Su, Jiun-Hua, 2025. "Bregman model averaging for forecast combination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    32. Eser, Fabian & Lemke, Wolfgang & Nyholm, Ken & Vladu, Andreea, 2020. "Tracing the impact of the ECB's asset purchase programme on the yield curve," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224540, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    33. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    34. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    35. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    36. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England working papers 550, Bank of England.
    37. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    39. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea, 2015. "A Shadow-Rate Term Structure Model for the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113159, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    41. Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
    42. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    43. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    44. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    45. Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2022. "Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Working Paper Series 2021-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    46. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    47. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    48. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    49. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2019-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    51. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    52. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    53. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    54. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    55. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2014. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and (un)expected bond excess returns," Discussion Papers 35/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    56. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    57. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    58. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    59. Billio, M. & Busetto, F. & Dufour, A. & Varotto, S., 2025. "Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    60. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    61. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    63. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    64. Sheheryar Malik & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Bank of England working papers 518, Bank of England.
    65. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    66. Marek Jarocinski & Albert Marcet, 2015. "Contrasting Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches to Autoregressions: the Role of the Initial Condition," Working Papers 776, Barcelona School of Economics.
    67. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," Working Paper Series 2017-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    68. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    69. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    70. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    71. Solís, Pavel, 2025. "Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    72. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    73. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    74. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    75. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Bond risk premia in consumption‐based models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1461-1484, November.
    76. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    77. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    78. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    79. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
    80. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.
    81. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    82. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell'Erba & ​Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2014. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Faculty Working Papers 01/14, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    83. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    84. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    85. Judith A. Clarke & Nilanjana Roy & Weichun Chen, 2012. "Health and Wealth: Short Panel Granger Causality Tests for Developing Countries," Econometrics Working Papers 1204, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    86. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    87. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2013. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Jing Cynthia Wu & Ji Zhang, 2016. "A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    89. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    90. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    91. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    92. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    93. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    94. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can We Use High-frequency Yield Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and Its Communication? Yes and No!," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    95. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    96. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    97. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    98. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2106, European Central Bank.
    99. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    100. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    101. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    102. El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    103. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    104. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    105. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    106. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    107. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England working papers 772, Bank of England.
    108. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    109. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    110. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    111. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    112. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    113. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
    114. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    115. Stefan Bruder, 2014. "Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions," ECON - Working Papers 181, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2015.
    116. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
    117. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    118. Schmidt, Lawrence D.W., 2025. "Climbing and falling off the ladder: Asset pricing implications of labor market event risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    119. Adam Kuèera & Evžen Koèenda & Aleš Maršál, 2019. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    120. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    121. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    122. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    123. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    124. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    125. Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Price pressures in the UK index-linked market: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 968, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    126. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    127. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    128. Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano & Jun Ma & Celine Rochon, 2022. "What’s Different about Bank Holding Companies?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-32, April.
    129. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    130. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    131. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
    132. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    133. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    134. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    135. Amaya, Diego & Boudreault, Mathieu & McLeish, Don L., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of first-passage structural credit risk models correcting for the survivorship bias," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 297-313.
    136. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    137. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and disaggregated bond excess returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-94.

  36. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec24.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    3. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "What drives cross-market correlations during the United States Q.E.?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    5. Shaikh, Imlak & Vallabh, Priyanka, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and gold price in India: Evidence from Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    8. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    10. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    11. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
    12. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
    13. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    14. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  37. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Signals from unconventional monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.21.

    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Rhythm, 2024. "Shifting Tides: the Effect of Institutional Divestments on the Global Market," MPRA Paper 121922, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2024.
    2. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.
    3. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    4. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    5. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113035, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    7. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2017. "The impact of quantitative easing on aggregate mutual fund flows in the UK," Working Papers 20171704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.

  38. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "What moves the interest rate term structure?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.7.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2015/094, International Monetary Fund.

Chapters

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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