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The Slope of the Phillips Curve

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Abstract

We review recent developments in the estimation and identification of the Phillips curve and its slope. We have three main objectives. First, we describe the econometric challenges faced by traditional approaches of estimating the Phillips curve, explain how new approaches address those challenges, and assess which limitations still remain. Second, we review the findings of those new approaches and examine the evidence regarding a potential flattening of the Phillipscurve in the pre-pandemic period. Third, we provide an account of inflation dynamics in the post-pandemic period with a particular emphasis on the role of nonlinearities.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit, 2024. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-43
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.043
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    1. Joris Tielens & Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu, 2024. "Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: micro evidence and macro implications," Working Paper Research 453, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    3. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    4. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    5. Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu & Joris Tielens, 2023. "Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," NBER Working Papers 31382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pierpaolo Benigno & Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2023. "It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 31197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; Phillips curve flattening; Phillips curve nonlinearities; Phillips curve slope;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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