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The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator : A Less Distorted Mirror

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Abstract

The spread between the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond and the yield on a shorter maturity bond, such as a 2-year Treasury, is commonly used as an indicator for predicting U.S. recessions. We show that such ?long-term spreads? are statistically dominated in recession prediction models by an economically more intuitive alternative, a \"\"near-term forward spread.\"\" This latter spread can be interpreted as a measure of the market's expectations for the near-term trajectory of conventional monetary policy rates. The predictive power of our near-term forward spread indicates that, when market participants expected?and priced in?a monetary policy easing over the next 12-18 months, this indicated that a recession was quite likely in the offing. Yields on bonds beyond 18 months in maturity are shown to have no added value for forecasting either recessions or the growth rate of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Engstrom & Steven A. Sharpe, 2018. "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator : A Less Distorted Mirror," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-55
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.055
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    1. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Peter Johansson & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve," FEDS Notes 2018-03-01-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
    3. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Recession fears and stock markets: An application of directional wavelet coherence and a machine learning-based economic agent-determined Google fear index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    6. Tvedt, Jostein, 2025. "A predictive term-spread model in the age of inflation targeting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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