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Spillovers from US Monetary Policy: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions

Author

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  • Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif
  • Furceri, Davide
  • González, Pablo
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Peiris, Shanaka

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the spillover effects from US monetary policy, focusing on the nature of the shocks driving movements in US interest rates. With an SVAR-IV model used to identify monetary policy, demand, and supply shocks, we find that an increase in US interest rates driven by demand shocks engenders a positive spillover to economic activity in the near-term, while an exogenous tightening of monetary policy would have a large negative spillover effect. Spillovers from US monetary policy shocks also depend on the state of the business cycle, exerting larger effects when growth is weak outside the US. Finally, tighter US monetary policy affects the left tail of the growth distribution disproportionately: the fat left tail highlights the salience of growth at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif & Furceri, Davide & González, Pablo & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Peiris, Shanaka, 2024. "Spillovers from US Monetary Policy: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18768
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Volha Audzei & Jan Bruha & Ivan Sutoris, 2025. "Does Firms' Financing in Foreign Currency Matter for Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2025/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Nazlioglu, Saban & Akin, Tugba & Gurel, Sinem Pinar & Gunes, Sevcan, 2025. "Is nature of inflation co-movement time-varying? Insights from a dynamic factor model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Chunjiao Yu & Wei Tang & Jiaqi Zhao, 2024. "Assessing China’s bank risk-taking: a study from the microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2025. "Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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