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Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis

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  • Jawadi, Fredj
  • Rozin, Philippe
  • Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi

Abstract

Is there a link between climate change action and the corporate debt market? Climate concerns are affecting a growing number of firms, their capital demand and indebtedness, as their exposure to ecological transition and climate change risk can influence their capital cost, capital demand and therefore their corporate debt decisions. This study examines the impact of climate change risk/unertainty on corporate debt and tests further lead-lag effects. To this end, we rely on data related to US companies listed on the S&P500 over the period 1990–2024, focusing on a large sample over a timeline characterized by different episodes, crises, and tensions related to climate change. Accordingly, we define the relationship between US corporate debt and climate change uncertainty using linear and nonlinear specifications. Our results show that pressure linked to ecological transition and climate change risk has had a significant impact on US firms’ debt and their capital structure. However, it appears that the impact of climate risks varies depending on the quantile under consideration and therefore the level of firm’s debt, suggesting further evidence of asymmetry and nonlinearity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2025. "Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:154:y:2025:i:c:s0261560625000555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103320
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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