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Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

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  • Miguel Ampudia
  • Skander J. van den Heuvel

Abstract

Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or even negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts announced by the ECB on European bank equity values ? an effect that is normally positive ? has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. Since then, a further unexpected cut of 25 basis points in the short-term policy rate lowered banks' stock prices by about 2% on average, compared to a 1% increase in normal times. In the cross section, this 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more traditional, deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that the reversal as well as its cross-sectional pattern can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ampudia & Skander J. van den Heuvel, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-64
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.064
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    Cited by:

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    2. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2021. "Comment on “Low Interest Rates and Risk Incentives for Banks with Market Power,” by Whited, Wu, and Xiao," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 175-179.
    3. Marcel Barmeier, 2022. "The new normal: bank lending and negative interest rates in Austria (Marcel Barmeier)," Working Papers 242, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Pham, Tra Thi Thu & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Nguyen, Binh Thanh, 2020. "Excess liquidity and net interest margins: Evidence from Vietnamese banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2022. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2638, European Central Bank.
    6. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2021. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetarypolicy transmission," Discussion Papers 42/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Adolf, Petra & Kok, Christoffer & Altavilla, Carlo & Lewis, Vivien & Andreeva, De, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank profitability; Interest rate risk; Monetary policy; Negative interest rates; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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