IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0551.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The informational content of market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from govenment bonds and inflation swaps in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuoshi Liu

    (China Investment Corporation)

  • Elisabetta Vangelista

    (UK Debt Management Office)

  • Iryna Kaminska

    (Bank of England)

  • Jon Relleen

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for inflation and are monitored regularly by the United Kingdom’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), alongside other measures of inflation expectations such as those based on surveys. However, the market rates we observe are not perfect measures of expected future inflation. Moreover, in the United Kingdom inflation-linked market instruments reference RPI inflation, whereas the MPC’s target is CPI inflation of 2%. To better extract useful information about expectations for CPI inflation, we develop a no-arbitrage term structure model to decompose the forward inflation curve into: measures of CPI inflation expectations; the expected spread between expected RPI and CPI inflation (the RPI/CPI inflation ‘wedge’); and estimates of risk premia. We then further decompose risk premia estimates into inflation risk premia and liquidity risk premia. We show that long-horizon expectations of CPI inflation, as implied by our model, fell in the 1990s after the introduction of inflation targeting and the creation of the MPC and have since remained fairly stable at around 2%. Our model also suggests that the large falls in measures of implied inflation based on index-linked gilts after the financial crisis were to a large extent the result of changes in liquidity premia in inflation-linked gilt prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuoshi Liu & Elisabetta Vangelista & Iryna Kaminska & Jon Relleen, 2015. "The informational content of market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from govenment bonds and inflation swaps in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 551, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2015/the-informational-content-of-maket-based-measures-of-inflation-expectations.pdf?la=en&hash=5DD98988E1286E7D594FA23E10CFF07BA8C575F1
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2014. "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2151-2197, October.
    2. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    4. Kim, Jaehoon & Kim, Sangsin, 2015. "2012년 국회법 개정의 효과 연구 [A Study on the Effect of the 2012 National Assembly Act Amendment]," KDI Research Monographs, Korea Development Institute (KDI), volume 127, number v:2015-03(k):y:2015:p:1-1.
    5. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period," Working Paper Series 2033, European Central Bank.
    2. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2022. "Long‐term inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 158-174, January.
    3. Dooruj Rambaccussing & Craig Menzies & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2022. "Look who’s Talking: Individual Committee members’ impact on inflation expectations," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 305, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nina Boyarchenko & David O. Lucca & Laura Veldkamp, 2015. "Taking orders and taking notes: dealer information sharing in financial markets," Staff Reports 726, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. David Musto & Greg Nini & Krista Schwarz, 2018. "Notes on Bonds: Illiquidity Feedback During the Financial Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2983-3018.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick J. Shultz, 2020. "Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-42, June.
    4. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
    5. Nina Boyarchenko & David O. Lucca & Laura Veldkamp, 2016. "Taking Orders and Taking Notes: Dealer Information Sharing in Treasury Markets," NBER Working Papers 22461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lin, Hai & Lo, Ingrid & Qiao, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic news announcements and market efficiency: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    8. Kaminska, Iryna & Liu, Zhuoshi & Relleen, Jon & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2018. "What do the prices of UK inflation-linked securities say on inflation expectations, risk premia and liquidity risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 76-96.
    9. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    10. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    12. Michelle Sheran Sylvester, 2007. "The Career and Family Choices of Women: A Dynamic Analysis of Labor Force Participation, Schooling, Marriage and Fertility Decisions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(3), pages 367-399, July.
    13. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    14. Banerjee, Snehal & Graveline, Jeremy J., 2014. "Trading in derivatives when the underlying is scarce," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 589-608.
    15. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    16. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Atallah, Gamal, 1998. "Les impôts sur le revenu et l’offre de travail des femmes mariées : une revue de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(1), pages 95-128, mars.
    18. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Capps, Oral Jr. & Havlicek, Joseph Jr., 1980. "National And Regional Household Demands For Meats And Seafood In The U.S.: A Complete Systems Approach," 1980 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois 278409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model; breakeven inflation; inflation expectations; ris;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.