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Kirstin Hubrich

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    3. Sophio Togonidze & Evzen Kocenda, 2020. "Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile," Working Papers IES 2020/35, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    4. Sophio Togonidze & Evžen Kočenda, 2022. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks to emerging economies: a Markov regime-switching approach," FFA Working Papers 4.009, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 06 Sep 2022.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Response to Real and Financial Factors, Commodity Prices, and Monetary Policy: International Evidence," Working Papers wp35, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    6. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Arodh Lal Karn & Bhavana Raj Kondamudi & Ravi Kumar Gupta & Denis A. Pustokhin & Irina V. Pustokhina & Meshal Alharbi & Subramaniyaswamy Vairavasundaram & Vijayakumar Varadarajan & Sudhakar Sengan, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Sustainable Energy on the Macro-Economy of South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Xu Gong & Mingchao Wang & Liuguo Shao, 2022. "The impact of macro economy on the oil price volatility from the perspective of mixing frequency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4487-4514, October.
    10. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach11We thank Hilde Bjørnland, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Ippei Fujiwara, Knut Aastveit, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Francesco Ravazzolo, Renee ," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Wang, Zanxin & Wei, Wei & Luo, Junwen & Calderon, Margaret, 2019. "The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 96-105.
    13. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Fan, Wenrui & Wang, Zanxin, 2022. "Whether to abandon or continue the petroleum product price regulation in China？," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

  2. Hubrich, Kirstin & Skudelny, Frauke, 2016. "Forecast combination for euro area inflation: a cure in times of crisis?," Working Paper Series 1972, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile & de Bondt, Gabe, 2018. "ALICE: A new inflation monitoring tool," Working Paper Series 2175, European Central Bank.
    2. Petar Soric & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Oscar Claveria, 2022. ""Density forecasts of inflation using Gaussian process regression models"," IREA Working Papers 202210, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Tesi Aliaj & Milos Ciganovic & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2023. "Nowcasting inflation with Lasso‐regularized vector autoregressions and mixed frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 464-480, April.
    4. Alessandra Canepa, & Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2022. "Forecasting Ination: A GARCH-in-Mean-Level Model with Time Varying Predictability," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202212, University of Turin.
    5. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    7. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal, 2018. "Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 367-378.
    8. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gerdesmeier Dieter & Roffia Barbara & Reimers Hans-Eggert, 2017. "Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 19-34, December.

  3. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2014. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Working Paper Series 1728, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403257, HAL.
    2. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    3. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation," Working papers 714, Banque de France.
    5. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(2), pages 83-117, Summer.
    6. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial Shocks And The Real Economy In A Nonlinear World: From Theory To Estimation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/910, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    8. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    9. Chi Hyun Kim & Lars Other, 2019. "The Short-Run Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1781, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Boyarchenko, Nina & Adrian, Tobias & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    13. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Megaritis, Anastasios & Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021. "Stock market volatility and jumps in times of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    16. S. Boragan Aruoba & Luigi Bocola & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Working Papers 13-47, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks?," Post-Print hal-02334586, HAL.
    18. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    19. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    20. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pinter, Gabor, 2016. "VAR models with non-Gaussian shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86238, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez, 2019. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 1-59, March.
    22. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 4-32, January.
    23. Bucacos, Elizabeth, 2017. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8275, Inter-American Development Bank.
    24. Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global impact of loss of confidence in Asian emerging markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1907-1927, July.
    25. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2014. "Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2014-20, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    26. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    28. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp222, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    29. Laurent Ferrara & Matteo Mogliani & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "High-frequency monitoring of growth-at-risk," CAMA Working Papers 2020-97, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    31. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2022. "Nonlinear transmission of financial shocks: Some new evidence," Working Paper 2022/3, Norges Bank.
    34. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.
    35. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk in the global banking sector: A cross-quantilogram network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    36. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    37. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Soo-Wah, Low & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Akhter, Tahmina, 2023. "Time and frequency domain connectedness and spillover among categorical and regional financial stress, gold and bitcoin market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    38. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    39. Schüler, Yves S. & Fink, Fabian, 2013. "The Transmission of US Financial Stress: Evidence for Emerging Market Economies," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
    41. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2016-19, CEPII research center.
    42. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    43. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    44. Yves S. Schüler, 2014. "Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty over the Business Cycle: A Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-02, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    45. Chen, Louisa & Verousis, Thanos & Wang, Kai & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Financial stress and commodity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    46. Lhuissier Stéphane, 2022. "Financial Conditions and Macroeconomic Downside Risks in the Euro Area," Working papers 863, Banque de France.
    47. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    48. Andreas Beyer & Benoît Coeuré & Caterina Mendicino, 2017. "Foreword – The crisis, ten years after: Lessons learnt for monetary and financial research," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 45-64.
    49. Stona, Filipe & Morais, Igor A.C. & Triches, Divanildo, 2018. "Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-144.
    50. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
    51. Kirstin Hubrich, 2012. "Comment on "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 167-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    53. Matei KUBINSCHI & Dinu BARNEA, 2016. "Systemic Risk Impact on Economic Growth - The Case of the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 79-94, December.
    54. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    55. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
    56. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Evgenidis, Anastasios & Vartholomatou, Konstantina, 2018. "Financial and monetary stability across Euro-zone and BRICS: An exogenous threshold VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 386-393.
    58. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
    59. Kirstin Hubrich & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2022. "The transmission of financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    60. Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2019. "The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 40-52.
    61. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    62. Brownlees, Christian & Chabot, Ben & Ghysels, Eric & Kurz, Christopher, 2020. "Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    63. Jozef Barunik & Michael Ellington, 2020. "Persistence in Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Papers 2007.07842, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    64. José Pedro Bastos Neves & Willi Semmler, 2022. "Credit, output and financial stress: A non‐linear LVSTAR application to Brazil," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 900-923, July.
    65. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4085, Inter-American Development Bank.
    66. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    67. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2015. "Optimal long-run inflation with occasionally binding financial constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 18-42.
    68. Renee Fry-McKibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of US monetary policy shocks during financial crises - A threshold vector autoregression approach," CAMA Working Papers 2016-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    69. Kim Abildgren, 2016. "A century of macro-financial linkages," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 458-471, November.
    70. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    71. Brownlees, Christian & Engle, Robert F., 2017. "SRISK: a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk," ESRB Working Paper Series 37, European Systemic Risk Board.
    72. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    73. Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2017. "Financial intermediaries’ instability and euro area macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 49-72.
    74. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok & Marco Terrones, "undated". "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," Working Paper 164451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    75. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Density Forecasts for US Output and Inflation," Working Papers 715, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    76. Mark Bognanni & Edward P. Herbst, 2014. "Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 1427, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    77. Hartmann, Philipp & Hubrich, Kirstin & Kremer, Manfred & Tetlow, Robert J., 2013. "Melting down: Systemic financial instability and the macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80487, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    78. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    79. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Juanxi Wang, 2019. "Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1201-1228, October.
    80. John Cotter & Mark Hallam & Kamil Yilmaz, 2020. "Macro-Financial Spillovers," Working Papers 202005, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    81. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The effects of the U.S. business cycle on the Canadian economy: A regime-switching VAR approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-12.
    82. Aboura, Sofiane & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: An application to France," Kiel Working Papers 1834, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    83. Hoffmann, Peter & Kremer, Manfred & Zaharia, Sonia, 2019. "Financial integration in Europe through the lens of composite indicators," Working Paper Series 2319, European Central Bank.
    84. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
    85. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    86. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    87. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "An Investigation of Co-Movement of Financial Stability Index with Macro-Prudential Indicator through Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(2), pages 125-151, April.
    88. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2014. "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    89. Satoshi Tezuka & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2018. "Credit Spread, Financial Market and Real Activities under Financial Instability: Empirical Evidence with MS-SBVAR," Discussion Papers 1812, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    90. Didier Wernli & Lucas Böttcher & Flore Vanackere & Yuliya Kaspiarovich & Maria Masood & Nicolas Levrat, 2023. "Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: A complexity perspective," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 207-228, May.
    91. Iacopini, Matteo & Poon, Aubrey & Rossini, Luca & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "Bayesian mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of monthly US GDP," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    92. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2013. "Assessing and combining financial conditions indexes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    93. Thiago Christiano Silva & Solange Maria Guerra & Michel Alexandre da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2018. "Interconnectedness, Firm Resilience and Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 478, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    94. Aleh Mazol, 2019. "The Influence of Financial Stress on Economic Activity and Monetary Policy in Belarus," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 49-75, June.
    95. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    96. Ding, Haoyuan & Ni, Bei & Xue, Chang & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Land holdings and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    97. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    98. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The Role of Households' Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of ," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    99. Trevor Serrao & Luca Benzoni & Marco Bassetto, 2017. "The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1124, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    100. Liow, Kim Hiang & Liao, Wen-Chi & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "Dynamics of international spillovers and interaction: Evidence from financial market stress and economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-116.
    101. Ellington, Michael & Florackis, Chris & Milas, Costas, 2017. "Liquidity shocks and real GDP growth: Evidence from a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 93-117.
    102. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Klaus, Benjamin & Duprey, Thibaut, 2015. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Working Paper Series 1873, European Central Bank.
    103. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Krzysztof Makarski, 2015. "A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints," EcoMod2015 8359, EcoMod.
    104. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    105. Jordà , Òscar & Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 18166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    106. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    107. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2016. "Nonlinearities of mortgage spreads over the business cycles," Bank of England working papers 634, Bank of England.
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    111. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    112. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    113. Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael & Metiu, Norbert, 2016. "Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks," Working Paper Series 1954, European Central Bank.
    114. Haddou, Samira, 2022. "International financial stress spillovers to bank lending: Do internal characteristics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    116. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    117. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    118. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    119. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    120. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    121. Michal Franta, 2015. "Rare Shocks vs. Non-linearities: What Drives Extreme Events in the Economy? Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2015/04, Czech National Bank.
    122. Michal Franta, 2013. "The Effect of Non-Linearity Between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts," Working Papers 2013/09, Czech National Bank.
    123. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 109-140.
    124. Panagiota Makrychoriti & Fotios Pasiouras & Menelaos Tasiou, 2022. "Financial stress and economic growth: The moderating role of trust," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 48-74, February.
    125. Andrea Cipollini & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2021. "Financial distress and real economic activity in Lithuania: a Granger causality test based on mixed-frequency VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 855-881, August.
    126. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Online Appendix to "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"," Online Appendices 14-103, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    127. Marcus Ingholt, 2018. "LTV vs. DTI Constraints: When Did They Bind, and How Do They Interact?," 2018 Meeting Papers 866, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    128. Sha Zhu & Fujun Lai & Jie Deng & Qian Wang, 2021. "Do Mutual Funds’ Exposure to Financial Stress Predict Their Future Returns? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    129. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    130. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    131. Fink, Fabian & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "The transmission of US systemic financial stress: Evidence for emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-26.
    132. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    133. Andisheh Saliminezhad & Pejman Bahramian, 2021. "The role of financial stress in the economic activity: Fresh evidence from a Granger‐causality in quantiles analysis for the UK and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1670-1680, April.
    134. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    135. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    136. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    137. Dany, Geraldine, 2016. "The credit channel during times of financial stress: A time varying VAR analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145899, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    138. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    139. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    140. Tan, Sook-Rei & Li, Changtai & Yeap, Xiu Wei, 2022. "A time-varying copula approach for constructing a daily financial systemic stress index," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    141. Martin Ademmer & Nils Jannsen, 2018. "Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3787-3797, July.
    142. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Manganelli, Simone, 2019. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Working Paper Series 2330, European Central Bank.
    143. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    144. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    145. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    146. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    147. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2019. "Complexity of financial stress spillovers: Asymmetry and interaction effects of institutional quality and foreign bank ownership," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 567-581.
    148. Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Li, Yan & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "News sentiment and stock return: Evidence from managers’ news coverages," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    149. Sulkhan Chavleishvili & Simone Manganelli, 2024. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 66-85, January.
    150. Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman & Julia Schaumburg, 2021. "Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-056/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    151. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    152. Daniel F. Waggoner & Hongwei Wu & Tao Zha, 2014. "The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    153. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Leading indicators of financial stress in Croatia: a regime switching approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 205-232.
    154. Martin Harding & Rafael Wouters, 2022. "Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 22-37, Bank of Canada.

  4. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Jeanfils, Philippe & Haavio, Markus & Ĉervená, Marianna & Guarda, Paolo & Mendicino, Caterina & D'Agostino, Antonello & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Ortega, Eva & Hubrich, Kirstin &, 2013. "Financial shocks and the macroeconomy: heterogeneity and non-linearities," Occasional Paper Series 143, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    3. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2018. "Firms’ and households’ investment in Italy: the role of credit constraints and other macro factors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1167, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Valerie Vandermeulen & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Trend Capital when Goods and Capital Market Frictions Exist," European Economy - Discussion Papers 145, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2021. "The Impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Working Papers 2021:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Evgenidis, Anastasios & Vartholomatou, Konstantina, 2018. "Financial and monetary stability across Euro-zone and BRICS: An exogenous threshold VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 386-393.
    8. Kirstin Hubrich & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2022. "The transmission of financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    10. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2022. "Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: A Cross‐Country Perspective Using Wavelet Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 569-593, June.
    11. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    12. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    13. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Working Papers 10, European Stability Mechanism.
    15. Leroy, Aurélien & Pop, Adrian, 2019. "Macro-financial linkages: The role of the institutional framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 75-97.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & Kirsten Thompson & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2014. "Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Conditions in South Africa: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Working Papers 201414, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    20. Markus Haavio & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2014. "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 407-412, April.
    21. Bluwstein, Kristina, 2017. "Asymmetric Macro-Financial Spillovers," Working Paper Series 337, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    22. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    24. Paolo Guarda & Alban Moura, 2019. "Measuring real and financial cycles in Luxembourg: An unobserved components approach," BCL working papers 126, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    25. Ciccarelli Matteo & Ortega Eva & Valderrama Maria Teresa, 2016. "Commonalities and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 231-275, January.

  5. Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    2. Lee Tae-Hwy & Wang He & Xi Zhou & Zhang Ru, 2023. "Density Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 57-83, January.
    3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Neuhierl, Andreas & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2021. "Data snooping in equity premium prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 72-94.
    6. Daniel Borup & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2017. "Statistical tests for equal predictive ability across multiple forecasting methods," CREATES Research Papers 2017-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  6. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Terasvirta, Timo & Yang, Yukai, 2014. "Linearity and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition regression models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Fève, Patrick & Garcia, Pablo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2017. "State-dependent risk taking and the transmission of monetary policy shocks," TSE Working Papers 17-872, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2020. "Investigating the Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Stock Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13853, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 43-57.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    9. A. Stan Hurn & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2016. "A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 707-733, June.
    10. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    13. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
    15. Glen Livingston Jr & Darfiana Nur, 2020. "Bayesian estimation and model selection of a multivariate smooth transition autoregressive model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), September.
    16. Andrea Bucci, 2022. "A smooth transition autoregressive model for matrix-variate time series," Papers 2212.08615, arXiv.org.
    17. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    18. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2017. "Generalizing Smooth Transition Autoregressions," DEM Working Papers Series 138, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Julius Loermann, 2018. "The Impact of CHF/EUR Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Swiss Exports to the Eurozone: Evidence from a Threshold VAR," FIW Working Paper series 189, FIW, revised Feb 2019.
    20. Andrea Bucci & Giulio Palomba & Eduardo Rossi, 2019. "Does macroeconomics help in predicting stock markets volatility comovements? A nonlinear approach," Working Papers 440, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    21. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Zhang, Xu & Yang, Xian & He, Qizhi, 2022. "Multi-scale systemic risk and spillover networks of commodity markets in the bullish and bearish regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    23. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben, 2023. "Investigating the dynamics of crude oil and clean energy markets in times of geopolitical tensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    24. Igor L. Kheifets & Pentti J. Saikkonen, 2020. "Stationarity and ergodicity of vector STAR models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 407-414, April.
    25. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
    26. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2015. "Managing financial risk in Chinese stock markets: Option pricing and modeling under a multivariate threshold autoregression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    27. Semmler, Willi & Proaño, Christian R., 2015. "Escape routes from sovereign default risk in the euro area," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    28. Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "Finding starting-values for maximum likelihood estimation of vector STAR models," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-076, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    29. Koo, Chao, 2018. "Essays on functional coefficient models," Other publications TiSEM ba87b8a5-3c55-40ec-967d-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    30. Ana C. Cebrián & Ricardo Salillas, 2021. "Forecasting High-Frequency River Level Series Using Double Switching Regression with ARMA Errors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 299-313, January.
    31. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and The Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    33. Kotz Hans-Helmut & Semmler Willi & Tahri Ibrahim, 2018. "Financial fragmentation and the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: a smooth transition VAR approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-19, December.
    34. Frauke Schleer, 2015. "Finding Starting-Values for the Estimation of Vector STAR Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, January.
    35. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 41-55.
    36. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 267-282.
    37. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    38. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    40. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    41. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-99.
    42. Arisara Romyen & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Export–Output Growth Nexus Using Threshold VAR and VEC Models: Empirical Evidence from Thailand," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, June.
    43. Galyna Grynkiv & Lars Stentoft, 2018. "Stationary Threshold Vector Autoregressive Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, August.
    44. Corrêa, Wilson Luiz Rotatori & Lopes, Luckas Sabioni, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission, productive activity, and inflation in Brazil: Does uncertainty matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    45. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
    46. Peter Martey Addo, 2014. "Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models with eXogenous Input," Papers 1407.7738, arXiv.org.
    47. Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "Regime shifts in the effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 749-772, December.
    48. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    49. A. C. Cebrián & J. Abaurrea & J. Asín & E. Segarra, 2019. "Dynamic Regression Model for Hourly River Level Forecasting Under Risk Situations: an Application to the Ebro River," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 523-537, January.
    50. Giovanni De Luca & Paola Zuccolotto, 2021. "Regime dependent interconnectedness among fuzzy clusters of financial time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 15(2), pages 315-336, June.
    51. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    52. William Irungu Nganga & Julien Chevallier & Simon Wagura Ndiritu, 2018. "Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya with comparative nonlinear Granger causalities across East-African countries," Working Papers halshs-01941226, HAL.
    53. Irungu, William Nganga & Chevallier, Julien & Ndiritu, Simon Wagura, 2020. "Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-9.
    54. Maria Bolboaca & Sarah Fischer, 2019. "News Shocks: Different Effects in Boom and Recession?," Working Papers 19.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

  7. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter, 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 8357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Shi Yafeng & Ai Chunrong & Yanlong Shi & Ying Tingting & Xu Qunfang, 2023. "Large covariance estimation using a factor model with common and group‐specific factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2217-2248, December.
    2. Utku Özmen, Mustafa & Akçelik, Fatih, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate and oil price pass-through in motor fuel market: A microeconometric approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 64-75.
    3. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," FEDS Notes 2019-04-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Firouz Fallahi, 2019. "Persistence and stationarity of sectoral energy consumption in the US: A confidence interval approach," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(5), pages 882-897, August.
    6. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2013. "Labour Market Dynamics in Spanish Regions: Evaluating Asymmetries in Troublesome Times," IZA Discussion Papers 7746, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 5328, CESifo.
    8. H. Marques & G. Pino & JdD Tena, 2009. "Regional inflation dynamics using space-time models," Working Paper CRENoS 200915, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Kaufmann, Daniel & Lein, Sarah M., 2013. "Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 384-394.
    10. Guillermo Carlomagno & Nicolas Eterovic & L. G. Hernández-Román, 2023. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Inflation Shocks from Chilean Electronic Payment Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 986, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Saure, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," Working Papers 655, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    12. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2023. "The flood that caused a drought," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(4), pages 965-981, October.
    13. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    14. In Choi & Rui Lin & Yongcheol Shin, 2020. "Canonical Correlation-based Model Selection for the Multilevel Factors," Working Papers 2008, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    15. Degui Li & Bin Peng & Songqiao Tang & Weibiao Wu, 2023. "Inference of Grouped Time-Varying Network Vector Autoregression Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. Kapetanios, George & Serlenga, Laura & Shin, Yongcheol, 2021. "Estimation and inference for multi-dimensional heterogeneous panel datasets with hierarchical multi-factor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 504-531.
    17. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2014. "What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?," EcoMod2014 6977, EcoMod.
    18. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Intersectoral Network-Based Channel of Aggregate TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 63, Bank of Lithuania.
    19. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    21. Pino, Gabriel & Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni, 2013. "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions : the case of inflation in the euro area and Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    22. Firouz Fallahi, 2020. "Persistence and unit root in $$\text {CO}_{2}$$CO2 emissions: evidence from disaggregated global and regional data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2155-2179, May.
    23. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Wu, Zhang, 2018. "Price Rigidity in China: Empirical Results at Home and Abroad," MPRA Paper 92013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Paweł Gajewski, 2017. "Sources of Regional Inflation in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 261-276, May.
    25. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    26. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    27. Espasa, Antoni & Senra, Eva, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    28. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    29. Degui Li & Bin Peng & Songqiao Tang & Weibiao Wu, 2023. "Estimation of Grouped Time-Varying Network Vector Autoregression Models," Papers 2303.10117, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

  8. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises - an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Thierry & Polgár, Éva Katalin & Buysse, Kristel & Rusinova, Desislava & Francart, Alexandre & Christensen, Jakob Eckholdt & Knobloch, Corinna & Stavrianou, Nikolaos & Diev, Pavel & Cocozza, Em, 2010. "Financial stability challenges in EU candidate countries - Financial systems in the aftermath of the global crisis," Occasional Paper Series 115, European Central Bank.
    2. Taglioni, Daria & Straub, Roland & Bussière, Matthieu & Pérez-Barreiro, Emilia, 2010. "Protectionist responses to the crisis – global trends and implications," Occasional Paper Series 110, European Central Bank.
    3. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo & Staehr, Karsten & Bobeica, Elena, 2015. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1777, European Central Bank.
    4. Donoval, Milan & Gautier, Erwan & Nuño, Galo & Nakov, Anton & Jiménez, Noelia & de los Llanos Matea, María & Estrada, Ángel & Zioutou, Pinelopi & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Weymes, Laura & O'Brien, Derr, 2010. "Energy markets and the euro area macroeconomy," Occasional Paper Series 113, European Central Bank.
    5. Aldama Pierre & Gaulier Guillaume & Lemoine Matthieu & Robert Pierre-Antoine & Turunen Harri & Zhutova Anastasia, 2022. "The EA-BDF Model and Government Spending Multipliers in a Monetary Union," Working papers 883, Banque de France.
    6. Angelini, Elena & Bokan, Nikola & Christoffel, Kai & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Introducing ECB-BASE: The blueprint of the new ECB semi-structural model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2315, European Central Bank.
    7. L. De Charsonville & F. Ferrière & C. Jardet, 2017. "MAPI: Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation in France," Working papers 637, Banque de France.
    8. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
    9. di Mauro, Filippo & Forster, Katrin & Lima, Ana, 2010. "The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 119, European Central Bank.
    10. Bodea, Cristina & Huemer, Stefan, 2010. "Dancing together at arm's length? - the interaction of central banks with governments in the G7," Occasional Paper Series 120, European Central Bank.
    11. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Prades, Elvira, 2016. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?," Working Paper Series 1909, European Central Bank.
    12. Klaus Vondra1, 2017. "Export market shares – a trivial concept?," FIW Working Paper series 177, FIW.
    13. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    14. Haertel, Thomas & Hamburg, Britta & Kusin, Vladimir, 2022. "The macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank revisited," Technical Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. S. Béreau & V. Faubert & K. Schmidt, 2018. "Explaining and Forecasting Euro Area Inflation: the Role of Domestic and Global Factors," Working papers 663, Banque de France.
    16. Stolz, Stéphanie Marie & Wedow, Michael, 2010. "Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times: public measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States," Occasional Paper Series 117, European Central Bank.
    17. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?," Working Paper Series 1736, European Central Bank.
    18. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.
    19. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.
    20. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France," Working papers 736, Banque de France.
    21. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France, Working Paper Series no. 736, Banque de France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02400611, HAL.
    22. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The evolution of the Maltese economy since independence," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2015, Central Bank of Malta.
    23. Christoph Fischer & Oliver Hossfeld & Karin Radeck, 2018. "On the Suitability of Alternative Competitiveness Indicators for Explaining Real Exports of Advanced Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 119-139, February.
    24. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Kamath, Kishore & Lamo, Ana & Pérez, Javier J. & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2010. "Public wages in the euro area - towards securing stability and competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 112, European Central Bank.
    25. Trabandt, Mathias & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Stark, Jürgen & Lalouette, Laure & Nickel, Christiane & Valenta, Vilém & van Riet, Ad & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Afonso, António & Warmedinger, Thomas & , 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    26. Grech, Aaron George & Grech, Owen & Micallef, Brian & Rapa, Noel & Gatt, William, 2013. "A Structural Macro-Econometric Model of the Maltese Economy," MPRA Paper 46128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Martin, Reiner & Gardó, Sándor, 2010. "The impact of the global economic and financial crisis on central, eastern and south-eastern Europe: A stock-taking exercise," Occasional Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    28. Elena Bobeica & Olegs Tkacevs & Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Papers 2016/04, Latvijas Banka.
    29. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries' economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
    30. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.
    31. Aaron G. Grech (ed.), 2015. "The evolution of the Maltese Economy since Independence," CBM Ebooks, Central Bank of Malta, edition 1, number 02.
    32. Gloria Allione & Alberto Felettigh, 2021. "External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 643, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Hess, Patrick, 2010. "Securities clearing and settlement in China: markets, infrastructures and policy-making," Occasional Paper Series 116, European Central Bank.
    34. Milan Vyskrabka & Stanislav Tvrz & Martin Zeleznik, 2019. "PreMISE: DSGE Model of the Slovak Economy Integrated in a Monetary Union," Working and Discussion Papers WP 8/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    35. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    36. Mirdala, Rajmund & Semančíková, Jozefína & Ruščáková, Anna, 2019. "Determinants of Export and Import Functions in the EU Member Countries," MPRA Paper 99535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    38. Beirne, John & Tapking, Jens & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Monar, Fernando & Manganelli, Simone & Grothe, Magdalena & Ejsing, Jacob & Dalitz, Lars & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.
    39. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Heike Joebges & Torsten Niechoj & Ulrike Stein & Rudolf Zwiener, 2015. "Nur moderater Anstieg der Arbeitskosten in Deutschland. Arbeits- und Lohnstückkostenentwicklung 2014 und 1. Halbjahr 2015 im europäischen Vergleich," IMK Report 109-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    40. Lalouette, Laure & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Rusu, Codruta & Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Politronacci, Emmanuelle & Delmas, Martial & Rua, António & Brandi, Marco & Naksi, Martti, 2021. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes," Occasional Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.
    41. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Heike Joebges & Torsten Niechoj & Ulrike Stein & Rudolf Zwiener, 2015. "German labour costs have risen only moderately," IMK Report 109e-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

  9. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    2. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
    3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    4. Lütkepohl Helmut, 2011. "Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 107-133, February.
    5. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
    6. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," MPRA Paper 50239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Blazej Mazur, 2015. "Density forecasts based on disaggregate data: nowcasting Polish inflation," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 71-87.
    9. Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
    10. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, revised 15 Apr 2013.
    11. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-23, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    12. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    14. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Lorenzo Bencivelli & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluca Moretti, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity by Bayesian bridge model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 21-40, August.
    17. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    18. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
    19. Mansoor Maitah & Daniel Toth & Elena Kuzmenko & Karel r dl & Helena Rezbov & Petra nov, 2016. "Forecast of Employment in Switzerland: The Macroeconomic View," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 132-138.
    20. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    21. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Neil R. Ericsson, 2016. "Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice : An Interview with David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Guillermo Carlomagno & Nicolas Eterovic & L. G. Hernández-Román, 2023. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Inflation Shocks from Chilean Electronic Payment Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 986, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    26. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    27. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    28. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    29. Byeongdeuk Jang & Young Se Kim, 2017. "Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 207-237.
    30. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    31. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    32. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2018. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US stock market returns of upstream oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 505-516.
    33. Giancarlo Lutero & Marco Marini, 2010. "Direct vs Indirect Forecasts of Foreign Trade Unit Value Indices," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 12(2-3), pages 73-96, October.
    34. Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Tobias Ingebrigtsen, 2022. "Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - A copula approach," Working Paper 2022/5, Norges Bank.
    35. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Gabe de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Pablo Herrero & Zivile Zekaite, 2021. "Euro Area Income and Wealth Effects: Aggregation Issues," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1454-1474, December.
    37. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Igor Pospelov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2015. "Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP," HSE Working papers WP BRP 111/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    38. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
    39. Shoesmith, Gary L., 2013. "Space–time autoregressive models and forecasting national, regional and state crime rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 191-201.
    40. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    41. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    42. Mihaela Bratu, 2011. "The Assessement Of Uncertainty In Predictions Determined By The Variables Aggregation," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-31.
    43. Nicholson, William B. & Matteson, David S. & Bien, Jacob, 2017. "VARX-L: Structured regularization for large vector autoregressions with exogenous variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 627-651.
    44. Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
    45. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941, July.
    46. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Bermingham, Colin & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2011. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Working Paper Series 1365, European Central Bank.
    48. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    49. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    50. Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
    51. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    52. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    53. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    54. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    55. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    56. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    57. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Dr. Gabriel Züllig, 2018. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Working Papers 2018-16, Swiss National Bank.
    58. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    59. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. den Reijer, Ard H.J., 2011. "Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1826-1837, July.
    61. Dmytro Krukovets & Olesia Verchenko, 2019. "Short-Run Forecasting of Core Inflation in Ukraine: a Combined ARMA Approach," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 248, pages 11-20.
    62. Julius Stakenas, 2015. "Forecasting Lithuanian Inflation," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.
    63. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
    64. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
    65. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    66. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    67. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
    68. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    69. Dées, Stéphane & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: a panel VAR approach," Working Paper Series 1724, European Central Bank.
    70. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    71. Pino, Gabriel & Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni, 2013. "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions : the case of inflation in the euro area and Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    72. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    73. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
    74. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 040-068, August.
    76. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    77. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    78. Kausik Chaudhuri & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Inflation Forecast: Just use the Disaggregate or Combine it with the Aggregate," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 331-343, June.
    79. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma, 2021. "Forecasting US stock market volatility: How to use international volatility information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 733-768, August.
    80. Luis J. Álvarez & Isabel Sánchez, 2017. "A suite of inflation forecasting models," Occasional Papers 1703, Banco de España.
    81. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
    82. Gilberto Boaretto & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2023. "Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning," Papers 2308.11173, arXiv.org.
    83. Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
    84. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.
    85. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    86. Gabriel Pino & J. D. Tena & Antoni Espasa, 2016. "Geographical disaggregation of sectoral inflation. Econometric modelling of the Euro area and Spanish economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 799-815, February.
    87. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Time-series measures of core inflation," Working Papers 2016-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    88. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    89. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    90. Khalaf, Lynda & Saunders, Charles J., 2017. "Monte Carlo forecast evaluation with persistent data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10.
    91. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Short- and mid-term forecasting of baseload electricity prices in the UK: The impact of intra-day price relationships and market fundamentals," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    92. Mossfeldt, Marcus & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Forecasting Goods and Services Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 146, National Institute of Economic Research.
    93. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    94. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    95. Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 336-350.
    96. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    97. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    98. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    99. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    100. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    101. Lan Bai & Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Guiwu Wei, 2022. "Does crude oil futures price really help to predict spot oil price? New evidence from density forecasting," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3694-3712, July.
    102. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    103. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    104. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    105. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
    106. Marcus Cobb, 2014. "GDP Forecasting Bias due to Aggregation Inaccuracy in a Chain- Linking Framework," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 721, Central Bank of Chile.
    107. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    108. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  10. Hubrich, Kirstin & West, Kenneth D., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Working Paper Series 1030, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    3. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Crude oil price point forecasts of the Norwegian GDP growth rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2913-2930, November.
    5. Daniel Andrés Jaimes Cárdenas & jair Ojeda Joya, 2010. "Reglas de Taylor y previsibilidad fuera de muestra de la tasa de cambio en Latinoamérica," Borradores de Economia 7308, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
    7. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
    13. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
    14. Ana Lamo & Frank Smets, 2010. "Wage dynamics in Europe: some new findings," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 10, pages 2-5.
    15. Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
    16. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. D'Amuri, Francesco/FD & Marcucci, Juri/JM, 2009. ""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," MPRA Paper 18248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Robert Kollmann & Stefan Zeugner, 2011. "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-009, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
    20. Komunjer, Ivana & OWYANG, MICHAEL, 2007. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt81w8m5sf, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Daniel Andrés Jaimes Cárdenas & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2010. "Reglas de Taylor y previsibilidad fuera de muestra de la tasa de cambio en Latinoamérica," Borradores de Economia 619, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Günter Coenen & Juha Kilponen & Mathias Trabandt, 2010. "When does fiscal stimulus work?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 10, pages 6-10.
    24. Khalaf, Lynda & Saunders, Charles J., 2017. "Monte Carlo forecast evaluation with persistent data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10.
    25. Kolev, Gueorgui I. & Karapandza, Rasa, 2017. "Out-of-sample equity premium predictability and sample split–invariant inference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 188-201.
    26. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    27. Anindya Biswas, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140, September.
    28. Enoch Cheng & Clemens C. Struck, 2019. "Time-Series Momentum: A Monte-Carlo Approach," Working Papers 201906, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    29. Daniel Borup & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2017. "Statistical tests for equal predictive ability across multiple forecasting methods," CREATES Research Papers 2017-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    30. Mariano, Roberto S. & Preve, Daniel, 2012. "Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 123-130.
    31. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    32. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  11. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Kun Ho Kim, 2016. "Inference of the Trend in a Partially Linear Model with Locally Stationary Regressors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 1194-1220, August.
    3. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    4. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    6. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2451-2459.
    8. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer, 2015. "Measuring the Core Inflation in Turkey with the SM-AR Model," MPRA Paper 62653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011. "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 63-81, February.
    10. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Post-Print halshs-00423871, HAL.
    11. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    12. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Mootamri, Imene, 2016. "Long memory and structural change in the G7 inflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 450-462.
    13. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.

  12. Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2009. "On the importance of sectoral shocks for price-setting," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/32, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Carvalho & Jae Won Lee, 2011. "Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model," Departmental Working Papers 201133, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.

  13. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "Regional inflation, spatial location and the Balassa-Samuelson effect," MPRA Paper 59220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Zsuzsanna Zsibók & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Hungary: a Spatial Analysis," Working Papers 1203, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    5. Andrea Vaona & Guido Ascari, 2012. "Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 509-523, June.
    6. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giuseppe Saporito & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1065-1086, June.
    7. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
    8. Diego Winkelried & José Enrique Gutierrez, 2015. "Regional Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Targeting. The Case of Peru," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 199-224, November.
    9. Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    10. H. Marques & G. Pino & JdD Tena, 2009. "Regional inflation dynamics using space-time models," Working Paper CRENoS 200915, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. Angelos Liontakis & Dimitris Kremmydas, 2013. "Food Inflation in EU: Distribution Analysis and Spatial Effects," Working Papers 2013-3, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    12. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    13. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter, 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 8357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Rüffer, Rasmus & Sánchez, Marcelo & Shen, Jian-Guang, 2007. "Emerging Asia's growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?," Working Paper Series 715, European Central Bank.
    15. Carla Massidda & Paolo Mattana, 2008. "Regional productivity and relative prices dynamics: the case of Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 945-966, December.
    16. Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2009. "On the importance of sectoral shocks for price-setting," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/32, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    18. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    19. Stefano IACUS & Giuseppe PORRO, 2013. "Does European Monetary Union make inflation dynamics more uniform?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    20. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-run Divergence? Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    21. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    22. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Mind the Gap: City-Level Inflation Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 2022/166, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    24. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2014. "What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?," EcoMod2014 6977, EcoMod.
    25. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    26. Giray GOZGOR, 2013. "Unemployment Persistence and Inflation Convergence: Evidence from Regions of Turkey," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 55-64.
    27. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 269-295, November.
    28. Perevyshin, Yury (Перевышин, Юрий) & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei Germanovich (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей Германович) & Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Analysis of Regional Price Differentiations [Анализ Региональной Дифференциации Цен]," Published Papers 011801, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    29. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    30. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    31. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    32. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    33. Ailenei, Dorel & Cristescu, Amalia, 2010. "Regional Distribution of Inflationary Pressures in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 32-43, December.
    34. Giulio PALOMBA & Emma SARNO & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2007. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro," Working Papers 289, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    35. Uwe Blien & Hermann Gartner & Heiko Stüber & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in western Germany," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 71-88, March.
    36. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Jun Nagayasu, 2017. "Regional inflation, spatial locations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Evidence from Japan," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1482-1499, May.
    38. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas & Vladimir Sokolov, 2013. "Regional inflation and financial dollarisation," Working Papers 163, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.

  14. Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2006. "Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area: Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2006/197, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Leon, Jorge, 2012. "A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica," MPRA Paper 44484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    3. Matteo Ciccarelli & Carlo Altavilla, 2007. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro area," 2007 Meeting Papers 315, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.
    5. Eliana Gómez & Miguel I. Gómez & Luis F.Melo & José Luis Torres, 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 409, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    7. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 629, European Central Bank.
    9. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time‐Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.
    11. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    13. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    14. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    16. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    17. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    18. Mihaela Bratu, 2011. "The Assessement Of Uncertainty In Predictions Determined By The Variables Aggregation," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-31.
    19. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    20. Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
    21. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
    22. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    23. Emil Stavrev, 2010. "Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area: assessment and role for informing monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 217-239, February.
    24. Dées, Stéphane & Burgert, Matthias, 2008. "Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches," Working Paper Series 882, European Central Bank.
    25. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Daniel Dias, 2006. "Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis," Working Papers w200603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    27. Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa & Gabriel Pino, 2010. "Forecasting Spanish Inflation Using the Maximum Disaggregation Level by Sectors and Geographical Areas," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 181-204, April.
    28. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    29. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    31. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    32. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.
    33. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    34. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    35. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Short- and mid-term forecasting of baseload electricity prices in the UK: The impact of intra-day price relationships and market fundamentals," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    36. Mossfeldt, Marcus & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Forecasting Goods and Services Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 146, National Institute of Economic Research.
    37. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    38. Bratu Simionescu Mihaela, 2012. "Variables Aggregation-Source of Uncertainty in Forecasting," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-13, December.
    39. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    41. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
    42. Amankwah, Ernest & Atta Sarfo, Prince, 2019. "The causal linkages among money growth, inflaion and interest rates in Ghana," MPRA Paper 96485, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  15. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "Regional inflation, spatial location and the Balassa-Samuelson effect," MPRA Paper 59220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Zsuzsanna Zsibók & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Hungary: a Spatial Analysis," Working Papers 1203, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    4. Andrea Vaona & Guido Ascari, 2012. "Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 509-523, June.
    5. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giuseppe Saporito & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1065-1086, June.
    6. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
    7. Diego Winkelried & José Enrique Gutierrez, 2015. "Regional Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Targeting. The Case of Peru," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 199-224, November.
    8. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    9. Carla Massidda & Paolo Mattana, 2008. "Regional productivity and relative prices dynamics: the case of Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 945-966, December.
    10. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    11. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    12. Stefano IACUS & Giuseppe PORRO, 2013. "Does European Monetary Union make inflation dynamics more uniform?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    13. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-run Divergence? Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    14. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    15. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Mind the Gap: City-Level Inflation Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 2022/166, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2014. "What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?," EcoMod2014 6977, EcoMod.
    17. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 269-295, November.
    19. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Ailenei, Dorel & Cristescu, Amalia, 2010. "Regional Distribution of Inflationary Pressures in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 32-43, December.
    21. Uwe Blien & Hermann Gartner & Heiko Stüber & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in western Germany," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 71-88, March.
    22. Jun Nagayasu, 2017. "Regional inflation, spatial locations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Evidence from Japan," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1482-1499, May.

  16. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    3. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
    5. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    6. Bermingham, Colin & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2011. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Working Paper Series 1365, European Central Bank.
    7. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni & Pino, Gabriel, 2008. "Forecasting Spanish inflation using information from different sectors and geographical areas," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws080101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Giacomo Sbrana, 2007. "Testing for Model Selection in Predicting Aggregate Variables," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 66(1), pages 3-28, March.
    10. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    11. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    12. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
    14. Mahmut Gunay, 2016. "Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth : Bottom-Up vs Direct?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1622, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    15. Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John, 2018. "Direct and Indirect Forecasting of Cross Exchange Rates," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 173-190.

  17. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Arratibel, Olga & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Kamps, Christophe, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
    2. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    3. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2012. "Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach," CEsA Working Papers 103, CEsA - Centre for African and Development Studies.
    4. Albacete, Rebeca & Espasa, Antoni, 2005. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area using monthly time series models and quarterly econometric models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws050401, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Lütkepohl Helmut, 2011. "Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 107-133, February.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2720, CESifo.
    7. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," MPRA Paper 50239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Blazej Mazur, 2015. "Density forecasts based on disaggregate data: nowcasting Polish inflation," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 71-87.
    10. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    11. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.
    12. Vesna Karadzic & Bojan Pejovic, 2021. "Inflation Forecasting in the Western Balkans and EU: A Comparison of Holt-Winters, ARIMA and NNAR Models," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(57), pages 517-517.
    13. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-23, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    14. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    16. Juan de Dios TENA & Antoni ESPASA & Gabriel PINO, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation and Relative Prices in the European Regions: A Case Study," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100040, EcoMod.
    17. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    18. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
    19. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    20. Igor Živko & Mile Bošnjak, 2017. "Time Series Modeling of Inflation and its Volatility in Croatia," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 1-10, December.
    21. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    22. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    26. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    27. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    28. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Papers 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
    29. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    30. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    31. Ivan, Kitov, 2006. "Exact prediction of inflation in the USA," MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    33. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    34. Giancarlo Lutero & Marco Marini, 2010. "Direct vs Indirect Forecasts of Foreign Trade Unit Value Indices," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 12(2-3), pages 73-96, October.
    35. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    37. Dr. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
    38. Luca ONORANTE & Gianluigi FERRUCCI & Rebeca JIMÉNEZ-RODRÍGUEZ, 2010. "Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: the Role of Asymmetries and Non-Linearities," EcoMod2010 259600125, EcoMod.
    39. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
    40. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    42. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    55. Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni & Pino, Gabriel, 2008. "Forecasting Spanish inflation using information from different sectors and geographical areas," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws080101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    56. Luetkepohl Helmut & Xu Fang, 2011. "Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    57. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Dr. Gabriel Züllig, 2018. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Working Papers 2018-16, Swiss National Bank.
    58. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    61. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
    62. Jakub Nowotarski & Eran Raviv & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2013. "An empirical comparison of alternate schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    63. Ibarra, Raul, 2012. "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1305-1313.
    64. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
    65. Dées, Stéphane & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: a panel VAR approach," Working Paper Series 1724, European Central Bank.
    66. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    67. Lorenzo Fratoni & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Sustainability and Social Adequacy of the Italian NDC Pension System under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, December.
    68. Capistrán, Carlos & Constandse, Christian & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2010. "Multi-horizon inflation forecasts using disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 666-677, May.
    69. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
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    71. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Ruth, Karsten, 2008. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the EMU: Does disaggregate modeling improve forecast accuracy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 417-429.
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    74. Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa & Gabriel Pino, 2010. "Forecasting Spanish Inflation Using the Maximum Disaggregation Level by Sectors and Geographical Areas," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 181-204, April.
    75. Kausik Chaudhuri & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Inflation Forecast: Just use the Disaggregate or Combine it with the Aggregate," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 331-343, June.
    76. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    83. Luis J. Álvarez & Isabel Sánchez, 2017. "A suite of inflation forecasting models," Occasional Papers 1703, Banco de España.
    84. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
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    86. Gilberto Boaretto & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2023. "Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning," Papers 2308.11173, arXiv.org.
    87. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.
    88. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.
    89. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Time-series measures of core inflation," Working Papers 2016-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    90. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
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    92. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
    93. Robinson Durán & Evelyn Garrido & Carolina Godoy & Juan de Dios Tena, 2012. "Predicción de la inflación en México con modelos desagregados por componente," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 133-167.
    94. Andreja Pufnik & Davor Kunovac, 2006. "Short-Term Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia with Seasonal ARIMA Processes," Working Papers 16, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    95. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    96. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Forecast Reconciliation: A Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    97. Bratu Simionescu Mihaela, 2012. "Variables Aggregation-Source of Uncertainty in Forecasting," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-13, December.
    98. Rishabh Choudhary & Chetan Ghate & Md Arbaj Meman, 2023. "Forecasting Core Inflation in India: A Four-Step Approach," IEG Working Papers 461, Institute of Economic Growth.
    99. Dieppe, Alistair & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank.
    100. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    101. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    102. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund & Jabbie, Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (STIF) for Monetary Policy Decision in Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 96735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Nov 2019.
    103. Célérier, C., 2009. "Forecasting inflation in France," Working papers 262, Banque de France.
    104. Alex Ilek, 2007. "Aggregation versus Disaggregation - What can we learn from it?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2007.02b, Bank of Israel.
    105. Roma, Moreno & Skudelny, Frauke & Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Landau, Bettina, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank.
    106. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    107. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank.
    108. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
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  18. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter J. G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the Euro Area: Differences in the Transmission Process of Monetary Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1802, Econometric Society, revised 08 Nov 2000.

    Cited by:

    1. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2007. "La Tasa de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia y su Desalineamiento: Estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Borradores de Economia 472, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2002. "An information-theoretic extension to structural VAR modelling," Econometrics 0203005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," Borradores de Economia 3026, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.

  19. Hubrich, Kirstin & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1998. "A review of systemscointegration tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,101, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.

    Cited by:

    1. Trenkler, Carsten, 2004. "Determining p-values for Systems Cointegration Tests With a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms," Papers 2004,37, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    2. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 331-358, March.
    3. Liang, Chong & Schienle, Melanie, 2019. "Determination of vector error correction models in high dimensions," Working Paper Series in Economics 124, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Tunali, Cigdem Borke, 2020. "The sustainability of external imbalances in the European periphery," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101540, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Yan Qian & Zijun Wang, 2021. "A model selection approach to jointly testing for structural breaks and cointegration with application to the Eurocurrency interest rates market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 799-825, August.
    6. Marc Hallin & Ramon van den Akker & Bas Werker, 2012. "Rank-Based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-042, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Kaddour Hadri & Eiji Kurozumi & Yao Rao, 2015. "Novel panel cointegration tests emending for cross‐section dependence with N fixed," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 363-411, October.
    8. Jawad, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Modelling the Impact of Policy Environment on Inflows of Worker’s Remittances in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 85497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
    10. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2013. "Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming," ESSEC Working Papers WP1320, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    11. Elke Hahn & Christian Müller, 2000. "Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 204, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2011. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1008-1017, February.
    13. H. Peter Boswijk & Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Improved Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration Rank in the VAR Model," CREATES Research Papers 2012-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    15. Krauss, Christopher & Herrmann, Klaus & Teis, Stefan, 2015. "On the power and size properties of cointegration tests in the light of high-frequency stylized facts," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2015, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    16. Hallin, M. & Werker, B.J.M. & van den Akker, R., 2015. "Optimal Pseudo-Gaussian and Rank-based Tests of the Cointegration Rank in Semiparametric Error-correction Models," Discussion Paper 2015-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Matei Demetrescu & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2009. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process with uncertain deterministic trend term," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 414-435, November.
    18. Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis & Sarker, Rakhal, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Ang, James B., 2008. "What are the mechanisms linking financial development and economic growth in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 38-53, January.
    20. Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2007. "Comparison of Panel Cointegration Tests," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    21. Ahlgren, Niklas & Juselius, Mikael, 2009. "Tests for Cointegration Rank and the Initial Condition," Working Papers 539, Hanken School of Economics.
    22. Besnik Fetai, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1014, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Liu, Yaobin, 2009. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1846-1854.
    24. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    25. Kurozumi, Eiji & 黒住, 英司 & Arai, Yoichi & 荒井, 洋一, 2005. "Efficient Estimation and Inference in Cointegrating Regressions with Structural Change," Discussion Papers 2004-09, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    26. Carstensen Kai & Hansen Gerd, 2004. "Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 271-291, June.
    27. Angeliki Skoura, 2019. "Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, April.
    28. Trenkler, Carsten, 2009. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests With A Prior Adjustment For Deterministic Terms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 243-269, February.
    29. Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2009. "Estimation and forecasting in first-order vector autoregressions with near to unit roots and conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 612-630.
    30. Ahlgren, Niklas & Nyblom, Jukka, 2003. "A General Test for the Cointegrating Rank in Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 499, Hanken School of Economics.
    31. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2017. "A unifying theory of tests of rank," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 49-62.
    32. Roman Grynberg & Teresa Kaulihowa & Fwasa K Singogo, 2019. "Structural Changes of the 21st Century and their Impact on the Gold Price," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(3), pages 72-83.
    33. Dorina Lazar & Michel M. Denuit, 2009. "A multivariate time series approach to projected life tables," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 806-823, November.
    34. Christopher Krauss & Klaus Herrmann, 2017. "On the Power and Size Properties of Cointegration Tests in the Light of High-Frequency Stylized Facts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, February.
    35. Qihui Chen & Zheng Fang, 2018. "Improved Inference on the Rank of a Matrix," Papers 1812.02337, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    36. Yulong Luo & Can Wang & Chen Chen & Kangle Ding & Weiliang Zeng, 2021. "Total Investment in Fixed Assets and the Later Stage of Urbanization: A Case Study of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-29, March.
    37. Trenkler, Carsten, 2002. "The effects of ignoring level shifts on systems cointegration tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,68, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    38. Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "Canonical correlation statistics for testing the cointegration rank in a reversed order," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,105, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    39. Syeda Tayyaba Ijaz & Sumayya Chughtai, 2022. "The Impact of Financial, Economic and Environmental Factors on Energy Efficiency, Intensity, and Dependence: The Moderating Role of Governance and Institutional Quality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 15-31, July.
    40. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    41. Konstantinos Makris & Ilia Vonta & Alex Karagrigoriou, 2021. "On Similarity Measures for Stochastic and Statistical Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, April.
    42. David O. Cushman, 2007. "A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian–U.S. exchange rate," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 305-320.
    43. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
    44. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    45. Fukuda, Kosei, 2007. "Joint detection of unit roots and cointegration: Data-based simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 28-36.
    46. Hallin, Marc & van den Akker, Ramon & Werker, Bas J.M., 2016. "Semiparametric error-correction models for cointegration with trends: Pseudo-Gaussian and optimal rank-based tests of the cointegration rank," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 46-61.
    47. Hafsa Hina & Abdul Qayyum, 2015. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 123-145.
    48. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Ulrike Neyer & Jürgen Wiemers, 2004. "The Influence of a Heterogeneous Banking Sector on the Interbank Market Rate in the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 395-428, September.
    50. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressive analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,31, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    51. David O. Cushman, 2003. "Further evidence on the size and power of the Bierens and Johansen cointegration procedures," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(25), pages 1-7.
    52. Huaibing Yu, 2019. "Long-run Cointegration and Market Equilibrium in Large Cap Stocks," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 1-2.

  20. Hubrich, K., 1996. "System estimation of the German money demand - a long-run analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,77, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.

    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(5), pages 711-733, November.
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1997. "A money demand system for M3 in the unified Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,92, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Gottschalk, Jan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of a money demand system in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 902, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

Articles

  1. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2017. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation: A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 515-540, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "On the Importance of Sectoral and Regional Shocks for Price‐Setting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1234-1253, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Matteo Ciccarelli & Kirstin Hubrich, 2010. "Forecast uncertainty: sources, measurement and evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 509-513.

    Cited by:

    1. Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2013. "The Assessment Of Parameter Uncertainty In A Vector Error Correction Model For Romania," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 124-134, December.
    3. Eva A. Arnold, 2013. "The Role of Data Revisions and Disagreement in Professional Forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201303, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
    5. Constantin Mitru? & Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "The Indicators’ Inadequacy and the Predictions’ Accuracy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(4), pages 430-442, August.

  7. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Kirstin Hubrich, 2008. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the United States," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 7, pages 7-9.

    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    3. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," Working Papers hal-04141061, HAL.
    4. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    5. Zemanek, Holger & Belke, Ansgar H. & Schnabl, Gunther, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Structural Adjustment in the Euro Area: How to Rebalance Competitiveness," IZA Policy Papers 7, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Diego Winkelried & José Enrique Gutierrez, 2015. "Regional Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Targeting. The Case of Peru," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 199-224, November.
    7. Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    8. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    9. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Olaolu Olayeni, 2015. "Analyzing Time–Frequency Based Co-movement in Inflation: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 91-109, January.
    10. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas & Vladimir Sokolov, 2018. "Regional Inflation, Banking Integration, and Dollarization [On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2073-2108.
    11. Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
    12. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2013. "Low-inflation-targeting monetary policy and differential unemployment rate: Is monetary policy to be blamed for the financial crisis? — Evidence from major OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 546-564.
    14. Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
    15. Chen, Changsheng & Girardin, Eric & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2017. "Global slack and open economy Phillips curves – A province-level view from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-87.
    16. Coleman, Simeon, 2012. "Where Does the Axe Fall? Inflation Dynamics and Poverty Rates: Regional and Sectoral Evidence for Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2454-2467.
    17. Polina S. Kuklinova & Vladimir V. Ilyashenko, 2022. "The impact of the inflation-targeting regime on the economic development of an industrial region," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 125-141, July.
    18. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. van Ewijk, Saskia E. & Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2015. "Financial integration in the euro area: Pro-cyclical effects and economic convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 335-342.
    20. Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Ms. Florence Jaumotte, 2012. "Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area: The Role of Labor and Product Market Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2012/037, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Dominic Quint, 2016. "Is it really more dispersed?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 593-621, October.
    22. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Ogrokhina, Olena, 2018. "Behavior of retail prices in common currency areas: The case of the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 49-57.
    23. Burridge, Peter & Iacone, Fabrizio & Lazarová, Štěpána, 2015. "Spatial effects in a common trend model of US city-level CPI," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-98.
    24. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    25. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    26. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    27. Petr Janský & Dominika Kolcunová, 2017. "Regional differences in price levels across the European Union and their implications for its regional policy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 641-660, May.
    28. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Regional Inflation (Price) Behaviors: Heterogeneity and Convergence," MPRA Paper 25430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Ogrokhina, Olena, 2019. "Persistence of prices in the Eurozone capital cities: Evidence from the Economist Intelligence Unit City Data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 330-338.
    30. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
    31. Mª Ángeles Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Divergent Optimal Inflation Rates In Euro Area Countries Or "Does One Size Fit All?"," EcoMod2012 3923, EcoMod.
    32. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2011. "How anchored are inflation expectations in EMU countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 281-298.
    33. Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "Heterogeneity and convergence of regional inflation (prices)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 711-723.
    34. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Reinhold, Elisa & Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2016. "What's so special about specialization in the euro area?," Occasional Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    35. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.
    36. Matěj Bajgar & Petr Janský, 2015. "Skutečná kupní síla v krajích České republiky: zohlednění regionální cenové hladiny a struktury pracovní síly [Purchasing Power in the Regions: Reflecting Price Levels and Employment Structures]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(7), pages 860-876.
    37. Arpita Chatterjee, 2014. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Comovement: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Discussion Papers 2014-19, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    38. Eder, Andreas & Koller, Wolfgang & Mahlberg, Bernhard, 2019. "Price Competitiveness in the European Monetary Union: A Decomposition of Inflation Differentials based on the Leontief Input-Output Price Model for the Period 2000 to 2014," MPRA Paper 95158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Paweł Gajewski, 2017. "Sources of Regional Inflation in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 261-276, May.
    40. Harry Aginta, 2022. "Spatiotemporal analysis of regional inflation in an emerging country: The case of Indonesia," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 667-688, June.
    41. Harry Aginta, 2021. "Spatial dynamics of consumer price in Indonesia: convergence clubs and conditioning factors," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 427-451, June.
    42. Christina Bräuning & Ralf Fendel, 2018. "National information and euro area monetary policy: a generalized ordered choice approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 501-522, March.
    43. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    44. Ivan F Dumka, 2016. "Coordinated wage setting and social partnership under EMU. A framework for analysis and results from Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 22(4), pages 445-460, November.
    45. Alyona Nelyubina, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 50-75, June.
    46. Gent Bajraj & Guillermo Carlomagno & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2023. "Where is the Inflation? The Diverging Patterns of Prices of Goods and Services," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 969, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    48. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Spain: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.

  9. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2008. "Modeling Monetary Transmission in Switzerland with a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 197-246, June.
    2. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    3. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
    4. Gunasinghe, Chandika & Selvanathan, E.A. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Forster, John, 2020. "The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 250-270.

  11. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99.

    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Lütkepohl & Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 683-702.
    2. Maghyereh, Aktham, 2003. "Financial Liberalization and Stability Demand for Money in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    3. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    5. Cabos Karen & Funke Michael & Siegfried Nikolaus A., 2001. "Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 219-238, August.
    6. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.
    8. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby, 2004. "Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach," IMF Working Papers 2004/114, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carstensen Kai & Hansen Gerd, 2004. "Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 271-291, June.
    10. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
    11. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    12. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    13. Clostermann Jörg & Seitz Franz, 2002. "Money, Inflation and Growth in Germany. A Vector-Error-Correction-P-Star Model / Der Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge, Output und Preisen in Deutschland. Ein Vektorfehlerkorrektur-P-Star-Ansatz," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(6), pages 641-655, December.
    14. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Diop, A. & Fonteny, E-C. & Gervais, E. & Jacquinot, P. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Sahuc, J-G., 2003. "Estimation d’une fonction de demande de monnaie pour la zone euro : une synthèse des résultats," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 111, pages 47-72.

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