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Nonparametric cointegration analysis of real exchange rates

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  • Jerry Coakley
  • Ana-Maria Fuertes

Abstract

This study indirectly addresses the issue of potential nonlinearities in real exchange rate adjustment for 18 OECD economies 1973-1998 using recent developments in the theory of nonparametric cointegration. While the standard Johansen tests yield mixed evidence, the results from a new nonparametric approach are clearly supportive of real exchange rate stationarity. Since the latter approach allows for a relatively general data-generating process, the findings are consistent with nonlinear mean reversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes, 2001. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:1:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100150210200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for Interest Rates in The Netherlands," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9704-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    3. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Revisited: An Application of Non-linear Unit Root Test," International Finance 0308001, EconWPA.
    2. Philip Shively, 2003. "Threshold stationary real exchange rates: a nonlinear, multivariate approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11.
    3. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2001. "Border costs and real exchange rate dynamics in Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 669-676, August.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, EconWPA.
    5. Kian-Ping Lim & Hock-Ann Lee & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets: a Revisit," Finance 0308003, EconWPA.
    6. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2003. "How Well the Ringgit-Yen Rate Fits the Non-linear Smooth Transition Autoregressive and Linear Autoregressive Models," GE, Growth, Math methods 0307004, EconWPA.
    7. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446.
    8. Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2009. "Is There Any International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 392-406.
    9. Kim Hiang Liow, 2008. "Financial Crisis and Asian Real Estate Securities Market Interdependence: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 127-155, November.
    10. Aktham Maghyereh, 2006. "The long-run relationship between stock returns and inflation in developing countries: further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 265-273, July.
    11. Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2008. "Sieve bootstrap t-tests on long-run average parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3354-3370, March.
    12. Cem Kadilar & Muammer Simsek & Cagdas Hakan Aladag, 2009. "Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 17-29, May.
    13. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    15. Nesmith Travis D & Jones Barry E, 2008. "Linear Cointegration of Nonlinear Time Series with an Application to Interest Rate Dynamics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Shu-Chen Chang, 2008. "Asymmetric cointegration relationship among Asian exchange rates," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 125-141, June.
    18. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.

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