IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Back to the Future: Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures during Historical Bank Runs and the Great Depression

Author

Listed:
  • Ghysels, Eric
  • Chabot, Benjamin
  • Kurz, Christopher
  • Brownlees, Christian

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of two popular systemic risk measures, CoVaR and SRISK, during eight financial panics in the era before FDIC insurance. Bank stock price and balance sheet data were not readily available for this time period. We rectify this shortcoming by constructing a novel dataset for the New York banking system before 1933. Our evaluation exercise focuses on assessing whether systemic risk measures were able to detect systemically important financial institutions and to provide early warning signals of aggregate financial sector turbulence. The predictive ability of CoVaR and SRISK is measured controlling for a set of commonly employed market risk measures and bank ratios. We find that CoVaR and SRISK help identifying systemic institutions in periods of distress beyond what is explained by standard risk measures up to six months prior to the panic events. Increases in aggregate CoVaR and SRISK precede worsening conditions in the financial system; however, the evidence of predictability is weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghysels, Eric & Chabot, Benjamin & Kurz, Christopher & Brownlees, Christian, 2017. "Back to the Future: Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures during Historical Bank Runs and the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 12178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12178
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    3. Rousseau, Peter L., 2011. "The Market for Bank Stocks and the Rise of Deposit Banking in New York City, 1866–1897," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 976-1005, December.
    4. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    5. Benjamin Chabot & Charles C. Moul, 2014. "Bank Panics, Government Guarantees, and the Long‐Run Size of the Financial Sector: Evidence from Free‐Banking America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 961-997, August.
    6. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    10. Richardson, Gary, 2007. "Categories and causes of bank distress during the great depression, 1929-1933: The illiquidity versus insolvency debate revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 588-607, October.
    11. Idier, Julien & Lamé, Gildas & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2014. "How useful is the Marginal Expected Shortfall for the measurement of systemic exposure? A practical assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 134-146.
    12. Gorton, Gary, 1985. "Clearinghouses and the Origin of Central Banking in the United States," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 277-283, June.
    13. Andrew J. Jalil, 2015. "A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 295-330, July.
    14. Raghuram Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan, 2015. "The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1439-1477, April.
    15. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
    16. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Carlson, Mark, 2005. "Causes of bank suspensions in the panic of 1893," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 56-80, January.
    18. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    19. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Robert Prilmeier & René M. Stulz, 2012. "This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2139-2185, December.
    20. Michael Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2010. "The banking panics in the United States in the 1930s: some lessons for today," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 486-509, Autumn.
    21. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    22. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    23. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    24. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    25. Rolnick, Arthur J. & Weber, Warren E., 1984. "The causes of free bank failures : A detailed examination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 267-291, November.
    26. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    27. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    28. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    29. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Tyler Muir, 2017. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Davis, Joseph H., 2006. "An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 103-121, March.
    31. repec:pri:metric:wp047_2012_brunnermeier_ssrn-id2103814.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Jon R. Moen & Ellis W. Tallman, 1990. "Lessons from the panic of 1907," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue May, pages 2-13.
    33. Matthew Jaremski, 2010. "Free Bank Failures: Risky Bonds versus Undiversified Portfolios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1565-1587, December.
    34. Hasan, Iftekhar & Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1994. "Bank Runs in the Free Banking Period," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 271-288, May.
    35. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra-Maria Chiper, 2023. "Financial Risk Optimisation Methods: A Survey," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 31, pages 155-168, June.
    2. Karamysheva, Madina & Seregina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Prudential policies and systemic risk: The role of interconnections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Benoit, Sylvain, 2024. "Smart systemic-risk scores," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Sanjiv R. Das & Kris James Mitchener & Angela Vossmeyer, 2018. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," CESifo Working Paper Series 7425, CESifo.
    7. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    8. Mohammad Roziq & Sri Widyastuti & Widarto Rachbini, 2025. "Performance Measurement Framework for Local Government: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(14), pages 247-259, February.
    9. Mitchener, Kris & Das, Sanjiv & Vossmeyer, Angela, 2018. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 13416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2024. "Measuring spatial impacts and tracking cross-border risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 50-84.
    11. Busch, Pascal & Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Marincas, Vlad & Meller, Barbara & Wildmann, Nadya, 2021. "How useful is market information for the identification of G-SIBs?," Occasional Paper Series 260, European Central Bank.
    12. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    13. Fina Kamani, Eric, 2019. "The effect of non-traditional banking activities on systemic risk: Does bank size matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 297-305.
    14. Kremer, Manfred & Chavleishvili, Sulkhan, 2021. "Measuring Systemic Financial Stress and its Impact on the Macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Engle, Robert F. & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy," Working Paper Series 2565, European Central Bank.
    16. Sanjiv R. Das & Kris James Mitchener & Angela Vossmeyer, 2022. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1261-1312, August.
    17. Liu, Ruicheng & Pun, Chi Seng, 2022. "Machine-Learning-enhanced systemic risk measure: A Two-Step supervised learning approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Daniel Traian PELE & Alexandra Ioana CONDA & Raul Cristian BAG & Miruna MAZURENCU-MARINESCU-PELE & Vasile Alecsandru STRAT, 2023. "Financial Risk Meter for The Romanian Stock Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-24, March.
    19. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    20. Ladley, Daniel & Rousseau, Peter L., 2023. "Panic and propagation in 1873: A network analytic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2021. "Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 330-365.
    2. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    3. Christian Brownlees & Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Christopher J. Kurz, 2015. "Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures During Historical Bank Runs," Working Paper Series WP-2015-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    5. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    6. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Ngobese, Sibusiso Blessing & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass, 2020. "An empirical analysis of systemic and macroeconomic risk in South Africa: an application of the quantile regression," MPRA Paper 101493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    9. Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2021. "Did the Basel Process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    11. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    12. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2022. "Predicting the stressed expected loss of large U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Peter Grundke, 2019. "Ranking consistency of systemic risk measures: a simulation-based analysis in a banking network model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 953-990, May.
    17. Anna Denkowska & Stanisław Wanat, 2020. "A Tail Dependence-Based MST and Their Topological Indicators in Modeling Systemic Risk in the European Insurance Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Patrick Cheridito, 2019. "Measuring and Allocating Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    20. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Garibal, Jean-Charles & Maillet, Bertrand, 2022. "Systemic risk and severe economic downturns: A targeted and sparse analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Financial crises; Risk measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.