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Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures During Historical Bank Runs

Author

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  • Brownlees, Christian

    () (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • Chabot, Benjamin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Ghysels, Eric

    (University of North Carolina)

  • Kurz, Christopher J.

    (Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

The measurement of systemic risk is at the forefront of economists and policymakers concerns in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. What exactly are we measuring and do any of the proposed measures perform well outside the context of the recent financial crisis? One way to address these questions is to take backtesting seriously and evaluate how useful the recently proposed measures are when applied to historical crises. Ideally, one would like to look at the pre-FDIC era for a broad enough sample of financial panics to confidently assess the robustness of systemic risk measures but pre-FDIC era balance sheet and bank stock price data were heretofore unavailable. We rectify this data shortcoming by employing a recently collected financial dataset spanning the 60 years before the introduction of deposit insurance. Our data includes many of the most severe financial panics in U.S. history. Overall we find CoVaR and SRisk to be remarkably useful in alerting regulators of systemically risky financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brownlees, Christian & Chabot, Benjamin & Ghysels, Eric & Kurz, Christopher J., 2015. "Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures During Historical Bank Runs," Working Paper Series WP-2015-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2015-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    3. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    4. Gorton, Gary, 1985. "Clearinghouses and the Origin of Central Banking in the United States," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(02), pages 277-283, June.
    5. Robert F. Engle & Eric Ghysels & Bumjean Sohn, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 776-797, July.
    6. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    7. Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:52:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-018-0732-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sanjiv R. Das & Kris James Mitchener & Angela Vossmeyer, 2018. "Systemic Risk and the Great Depression," CESifo Working Paper Series 7425, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Das, Sanjiv & Mitchener, Kris James & Vossmeyer, Angela, 2018. "Systemic Risk and the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 13416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gilbert Colletaz & Grégory Levieuge & Alexandra Popescu, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Long-Run Systemic Risk-Taking," Working papers 694, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Systemic risk; Stress testing; credit risk; High-frequency data;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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