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Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk

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  • Lars Peter Hansen

Abstract

Sparked by the recent "great recession" and the role of financial markets, considerable interest exists among researchers within both the academic community and the public sector in modeling and measuring systemic risk. In this essay I draw on experiences with other measurement agendas to place in perspective the challenge of quantifying systemic risk, or more generally, of providing empirical constructs that can enhance our understanding of linkages between financial markets and the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Peter Hansen, 2012. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 18505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18505 Note: CF
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 1-30, May.
    2. I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler., 2009. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2013. "Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2549-2587, December.
    4. Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    7. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2010. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_42, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    8. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 586-606.
    9. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
    10. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2007. "Probabilities in Economic Modeling," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Bluhm, Marcel & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2014. "Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 75-94.
    3. Rita Basto, 2013. "A Macro-prudential Policy for Financial Stability," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The ties that bind: Geopolitical motivations for economic integration," Kiel Working Papers 2085, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Jaromir Benes & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models; Selected Applications of MAPMOD," IMF Working Papers 14/56, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Krause, Thomas & Buch, Claudia M. & Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Drivers of Systemic Risk: Do National and European Perspectives Differ?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113103, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Gong, Di & Wagner, Wolf, 2016. "Systemic risk-taking at banks: Evidence from the pricing of syndicated loans," CEPR Discussion Papers 11150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Systems and systemic risk in finance and economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61220, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Bianconi, Marcelo & Hua, Xiaxin & Tan, Chih Ming, 2015. "Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 352-368.
    10. repec:spt:apfiba:v:8:y:2018:i:1:f:8_1_3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paola Bongini & Laura Nieri, 2014. "Identifying and Regulating Systemically Important Financial Institutions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 43(1), pages 39-62, February.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU); Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/92, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Friedman, Daniel & Isaac, R. Mark & James, Duncan & Sunder, Shyam, 2014. "Risky Curves: On the Empirical Failure of Expected Utility," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt87v8k86z, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Buch, Claudia M. & Krause, Thomas & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Drivers of systemic risk: Do national and European perspectives differ?," Discussion Papers 09/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Paul Glasserman, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Gabriele Camera & Marco Casari & Stefania Bortolotti, 2016. "An Experiment on Retail Payments Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 363-392, March.
    17. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Purda, Lynnette & Sonmez, Fatma & Zhong, Ligang, 2015. "Financial institution credit assessment and implications for portfolio managers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-166.
    19. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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