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Spatiotemporal analysis of regional inflation in an emerging country: The case of Indonesia

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  • Harry Aginta

Abstract

This study analyzes regional inflation dynamics in Indonesia through a spatiotemporal context. We employ an exploratory space–time data analysis (ESTDA) on inflation data and its components of 34 provinces in Indonesia during three different episodes between 2012 and 2019: rising inflation (2012–2013), declining inflation (2014–2015), and stable inflation (2018–2019). We discover a variety of spatially coordinated movements in inflation dynamics across the episodes, implying the transmission of price changes in a particular region to neighboring regions. The foodstuffs component appears to be the primary source of the spatial process of aggregate inflation. Our findings have significant implications for the relevance of including spatial dimension in analyzing and formulating policy measures to control regional inflation in Indonesia. Este estudio analiza la dinámica de la inflación regional en Indonesia a través de un contexto espacio‐temporal. Se empleó un análisis exploratorio de datos espacio‐temporales (ESTDA, por sus siglas en inglés) sobre datos de inflación y de sus componentes de 34 provincias de Indonesia durante tres episodios diferentes entre 2012 y 2019: inflación creciente (2012‐2013), inflación decreciente (2014‐2015) e inflación estable (2018‐2019). Se descubrió una variedad de movimientos coordinados espacialmente en la dinámica de la inflación a través de los episodios, lo que implica la transmisión de los cambios de precios en una región particular hacia las regiones vecinas. El componente alimentario parece ser la fuente principal del proceso espacial de agregación de la inflación. Los resultados tienen importantes implicaciones para la relevancia de incluir la dimensión espacial en el análisis y la formulación de medidas políticas para controlar la inflación regional en Indonesia. 本稿では、インドネシアにおける地域的なインフレの動向を時空間的に分析する。2012~2019年の3つの期間、すなわちインフレの上昇(2012~2013年)、インフレの低下(2014~2015年)、インフレの安定(2018~2019年)の間のインドネシアの34州のインフレデータとその構成要素について、exploratory space–time data analysis (ESTDA:探索的時空間データ分析)を用いて分析した。我々は、すべての期間のインフレの動向において空間的に協調的な動きが様々にあることを発見したが、これは特定の地域の価格変動が近隣地域に伝達していることを暗に示している。食料品は、全体のインフレの空間的プロセスの主な源であると考えられる。我々の知見は、インドネシアにおける地域的なインフレを抑制するための政策措置の分析と策定に空間的次元を含めることの妥当性に対して重要な意味をもつものである。

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  • Harry Aginta, 2022. "Spatiotemporal analysis of regional inflation in an emerging country: The case of Indonesia," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 667-688, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:667-688
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12539
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