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Inflational Surge in the Second Half of the 2020s. Forecast Based on US Data on Commodity Prices and Minimum Wage Since 1946

Author

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  • S. V. Anureev

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article proves a number of the author’s hypotheses about inflation in the United States: unexpected jumps in inflation are required to reduce the budget deficit and public debt to inflated GDP; these jumps and their fading are caused by greater amplitude of commodity prices; the key leading indicator of inflation is the level and plans to increase the federal minimum wage (FMW), as a reflection of the indexation of budget expenditures; there are usually two inflation spikes, with an intermediate fading to lower inflation expectations. These indicators are studied through data analysis since 1946, as well as a formalized logical-statistical model, similar to fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets. The next jump in US consumer prices is projected for 2025–2027 in the level of inflation in 2021–2022, which will require an increase in commodity prices, important for the Russian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • S. V. Anureev, 2024. "Inflational Surge in the Second Half of the 2020s. Forecast Based on US Data on Commodity Prices and Minimum Wage Since 1946," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 116-125, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724010027
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Apr).
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
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