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The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Deryugina

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Natalia Karlova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Anna Tsvetkova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This paper examines the relative roles of region-specific and commodity-specific developments in the consumer price setting in Russia. For this purpose, we estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model using inflation rates across regions and sectors. We found little evidence of association between region-specific factors and inflation developments, although there are several regions (mostly located in the Far East and North Caucasus) where the idiosyncratic component may contribute substantially. Conversely, the role of cross-commodity relative price changes in inflation developments in Russia is substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2018. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps36, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Boris I. Alekhin, 2023. "Interregional Differences in Inflation through the Prism of Ackley’s Theory," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 8-25, February.
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2013. "Inflation targeting, flexible exchange rates and inflation convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 593-603, February.
    3. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    4. Polina S. Kuklinova & Vladimir V. Ilyashenko, 2022. "The impact of the inflation-targeting regime on the economic development of an industrial region," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 125-141, July.
    5. Alyona Nelyubina, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 50-75, June.
    6. Vadim Napalkov & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2021. "Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 3-45, March.
    7. Kiselev, Aleksei & Zhivaykina, Aleksandra, 2020. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    8. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic hierarchical factor model; regional inflation; relative prices; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design

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