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Terms of Trade Shocks and Monetary Policy in India

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  • Ghate, Chetan
  • Gupta, Sargam
  • Mallick, Debdulal

Abstract

Central banks in emerging markets often grapple with understanding the monetary policy response to an inter-sectoral terms of trade shock. To address this, we develop a three sector closed economy NK-DSGE model calibrated to India. Our framework can be generalized to other emerging markets and developing countries. The model is characterized by a manufacturing sector and an agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is disaggregated into a food grain and vegetable sector. The government procures grain from the grain market and stores it. We show that the procurement of grain leads to higher inflation, a change in the sectoral terms of trade, and a positive output gap because of a change in the sectoral allocation of labor. We compare the transmission of a single period positive procurement shock with a single period negative productivity shock and discuss what implications such shocks have for monetary policy setting. Our paper contributes to a growing literature on monetary policy in India and other emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghate, Chetan & Gupta, Sargam & Mallick, Debdulal, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Monetary Policy in India," MPRA Paper 71227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multi-sector New Keynesian DSGE Models; Terms of Trade Shocks; Reserve Bank of India; Indian Economy; Agricultural Procurement;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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