IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20253119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, Elena
  • Bokan, Nikola
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Lalik, Magdalena
  • Zimic, Srečko

Abstract

This paper introduces the European Central Bank’s Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – which account for more than 80 percent of the euro area total GDP. By incorporating detailed structural features and data-driven insights, the model provides the main reference for the ECB’s staff macroeconomic projections, acting as a disciplined tool for forecasting, enabling scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses, and giving a framework to understand the transmission channels of various economic shocks. The paper offers a detailed account of the structure, the estimation and the model properties, and provides a primer on the potential uses of the ECB-MC in the Eurosystem macroeconomic projections. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E5, E6

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, Elena & Bokan, Nikola & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Lalik, Magdalena & Zimic, Srečko, 2025. "The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries," Working Paper Series 3119, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253119
    Note: 338657
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3119~e5562a32b9.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.