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Citations for "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models"

by Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West

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  1. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Lux, Thomas & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Forecasting the volatility of the Dow Jones Islamic Stock Market Index: Long memory vs. regime switching," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 559-571.
  2. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2012. "On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 934-955, 09.
  3. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
  4. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
  5. Buchmann, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
  6. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  7. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Lin, Shiyu, 2015. "Predictive Models for Disaggregate Stock Market Volatility," MPRA Paper 68460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
  9. Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2011. "Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments," NBER Chapters,in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 15-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
  11. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  12. Mariano, Roberto S. & Preve, Daniel, 2012. "Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 123-130.
  13. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
  14. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Working Papers 2015-07, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  15. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
  16. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  17. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  18. Buncic, Daniel & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2016. "Global equity market volatility spillovers: A broader role for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1317-1339.
  19. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P, 2014. "Common Macro Factors and Currency Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. David Genesove & James Hansen, 2014. "Predicting Dwelling Prices with Consideration of the Sales Mechanism," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  21. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
  22. Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205124, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  23. Pablo Pincheira, 2008. "Combining Tests of Predictive Ability Theory and Evidence for Chilean and Canadian Exchange Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 459, Central Bank of Chile.
  24. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2014. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements With Oil-Sensitive Stocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 830-844, 04.
  25. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2012. "Forecasting US state-level employment growth: An amalgamation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 315-327.
  26. Aleksandar Mijatovic & Paul Schneider, 2009. "Empirical Asset Pricing with Nonlinear Risk Premia," Working Papers wp09-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  27. Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, "undated". "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
  28. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
  29. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
  30. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  31. Murat Midilic, 2016. "Estimation Of Star-Garch Models With Iteratively Weighted Least Squares," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/918, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  32. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  33. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 196, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  34. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  35. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
  36. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2016. "Outlier detection in structural time series models: The indicator saturation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 180-202.
  37. Daniel Andrés Jaimes Cárdenas & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2010. "Reglas de Taylor y previsibilidad fuera de muestra de la tasa de cambio en Latinoamérica," Borradores de Economia 619, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  38. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  39. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Intraday volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
  40. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
  41. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz J., 2012. "The Usefulness of factor models in forecasting the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_273, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  42. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
  43. Yan Carrière‐Swallow & Felipe Labbé, 2013. "Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 289-298, 07.
  44. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2016. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with international factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 981-1010, November.
  45. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  47. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
  48. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  49. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 212012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  51. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Sticky prices or economically-linked economies: The case of forecasting the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 95-109.
  52. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," CREATES Research Papers 2012-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  53. Axel Groß‐KlußMann & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2013. "Predicting Bid–Ask Spreads Using Long‐Memory Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 724-742, December.
  54. Chen, Yu-chin & Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Zivot, Eric, 2014. "Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 117-134.
  55. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  56. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  57. Fulvio Corsi & Roberto Renò, 2012. "Discrete-Time Volatility Forecasting With Persistent Leverage Effect and the Link With Continuous-Time Volatility Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 368-380, January.
  58. Goodness C. Aye & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Does Debt Ceiling and Government Shutdown Help in Forecasting the US Equity Risk Premium?," Working Papers 201422, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  59. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
  60. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
  61. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  62. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2015. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 125-153.
  63. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
  64. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  65. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  66. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, 03.
  67. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  68. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  69. Francesco Audrino & Yujia Hu, 2016. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, February.
  70. Paye, Bradley S., 2012. "‘Déjà vol’: Predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 527-546.
  71. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  72. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
  73. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
  74. Deaves, Richard & Lei, Jin & Schröder, Michael, 2015. "Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-029, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  75. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  76. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early-Warning System: Toward a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 75-113, April.
  77. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  78. Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
  79. Zhu, Yanjian & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2014. "European business cycles and stock return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 446-453.
  80. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Gustavo Adler & Pedro Castro & Camilo E. Tovar, 2016. "Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 183-205, February.
  82. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  83. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
  84. Carstensen Kai & Wohlrabe Klaus & Ziegler Christina, 2011. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 82-106, February.
  85. Pablo Pincheira B., 2008. "Predictibilidad Encubierta en Economía: El Caso del Tipo de Cambio Nominal Chileno," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 137-142, April.
  86. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
  87. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function," IAB Discussion Paper 201416, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  88. Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper 2009/15, Norges Bank.
  89. Bork, Lasse & Møller, Stig V., 2015. "Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
  90. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  91. Jonathan Kearns, 2016. "Global inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 582, Bank for International Settlements.
  92. Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 6457, CESifo Group Munich.
  93. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
  94. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
  95. Nuno Silva, 2013. "Equity Premia Predictability in the EuroZone," GEMF Working Papers 2013-22, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  96. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
  97. Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2011. "External imbalance, valuation adjustments and real Exchange rate: evidence of predictability in an emerging economy," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 26(1), pages 107-125, Junio.
  98. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions and Structural Changes: A Markov-Switching DSGE approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  99. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
  100. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  101. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
  102. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  103. Luca Guerrieri & Michelle Welch, 2012. "Can macro variables used in stress testing forecast the performance of banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  104. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2015. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
  105. Candelon Bertrand & Ahmed Jameel & Straetmans Stefan, 2012. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  106. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Tian, Jing, 2016. "Forecasting output gaps in the G-7 countries: The role of correlated Innovations and structural breaks," Working Papers 2016-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  107. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Hard Times," NBER Working Papers 16222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher, 2013. "Hard Times," Scholarly Articles 12172786, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  108. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 21-39.
  109. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
  110. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
  111. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
  112. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016. "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper 68704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  113. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  114. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas, 2016. "Equity Premium Prediction: The Role of Economic and Statistical Constraints," Working Paper Series 16-25, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  115. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, 02.
  116. Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time-varying weights," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 251-269.
  117. Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  118. Schnatz, Bernd & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2012. "Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years," Working Paper Series 1455, European Central Bank.
  119. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  120. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  121. Sellin, Peter, 2007. "Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts," Working Paper Series 213, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  122. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
  123. Lutzenberger, Fabian T., 2014. "The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 120-130.
  124. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
  125. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2015. "Inside the crystal ball: New approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump," CFS Working Paper Series 500, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  126. David A Reichsfeld & Shaun K. Roache, 2011. "Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?," IMF Working Papers 11/254, International Monetary Fund.
  127. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2016. "International Stock Return Predictability: On the Role of the United States in Bad and Good Times," EcoMod2016 9534, EcoMod.
  128. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2007. "The microstructure of the Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate: A robustness test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 426-432, March.
  129. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  130. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  131. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
  132. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Intraday return predictability, portfolio maximisation, and hedging," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 105-116.
  133. Qiu, Mei & Pinfold, John F. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2011. "Predicting foreign exchange movements using historic deviations from PPP," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 485-497, October.
  134. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
  135. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011. "Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 205-229, 03.
  136. Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman, 2017. "Overnight returns of stock indexes: Evidence from ETFs and futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 440-451.
  137. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  138. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2014. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, March.
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  165. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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  200. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
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  279. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
  280. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P. & Stanescu, Silvia, 2016. "Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 458-474.
  281. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  282. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:8:d:64253 is not listed on IDEAS
  283. Chu‐An Liu & Biing‐Shen Kuo, 2016. "Model averaging in predictive regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(2), pages 203-231, 06.
  284. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  285. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Time-Varying Stock Return Predictability: The Eurozone Case," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 41, pages 28-38, June.
  286. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2016. "Asset price bubbles and economic welfare," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-148.
  287. Gozgor, Giray & Nokay, Pinar, 2011. "Comparing forecast performances among volatility estimation methods in the pricing of european type currency options of USD-TL and Euro-TL," MPRA Paper 34369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  288. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2017. "On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 155-178, February.
  289. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "Exploiting Spillovers to forecast Crashes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  290. Yu-Hau Hu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2013. "A Study of yhe Nonlinear Relationships among the U.S. and Asian Stock Markets during Financial Crises," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-147, December.
  291. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  292. Arbués, Ignacio, 2013. "Determining the MSE-optimal cross section to forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 61-70.
  293. Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1-26, April.
  294. He, Kaijian & Xu, Yang & Zou, Yingchao & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasts using a Curvelet denoising based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 425(C), pages 1-9.
  295. Waters, James, 2013. "Variable marginal propensities to pirate and the diffusion of computer software," MPRA Paper 46036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  296. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  297. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Industry based equity premium forecasts," GEMF Working Papers 2015-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  298. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Volatility forecasting: The role of lunch-break returns, overnight returns, trading volume and leverage effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619.
  299. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  300. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
  301. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  302. Huurman, Christian & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The power of weather," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3793-3807.
  303. Jaqueson K Galimberti, 2017. "Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space," KOF Working papers 17-427, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  304. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Think national, forecast local: A case study of 71 German urban housing markets," KOF Working papers 15-372, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  305. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Can commodity returns forecast Canadian sector stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-188.
  306. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile.
  307. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  308. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  309. Gross, Marco & Binder, Michael, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
  310. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
  311. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  312. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  313. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  314. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  315. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
  316. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  317. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
  318. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
  319. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  320. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  321. Dong, Wei & Nam, Deokwoo, 2013. "Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Evidence of long-horizon predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 611-636.
  322. Dauwe, Alexander & Moura, Marcelo L., 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Insper Working Papers wpe_233, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  323. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2014. "A Consumption-Based Approach to Exchange Rate Predictability," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012339, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  324. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2016. "Applying a Microfounded-Forecasting Approach to Predict Brazilian Inflation," Working Papers Series 436, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  325. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
  326. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
  327. Heejoon Han & Myung D. Park, 2013. "Comparison of Realized Measure and Implied Volatility in Forecasting Volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 522-533, 09.
  328. Isao Ishida & Virmantas Kvedaras, 2015. "Modeling Autoregressive Processes with Moving-Quantiles-Implied Nonlinearity," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-53, January.
  329. Gross, Marco, 2013. "Estimating GVAR weight matrices," Working Paper Series 1523, European Central Bank.
  330. Pantelis Promponas & David Alan Peel, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  331. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
  332. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2015. "An Overview of the Factor-augmented Error-Correction Model," Discussion Papers 15-03, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  333. Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
  334. Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2014. "Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 825-843.
  335. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  336. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 551, Bank for International Settlements.
  337. Pablo Pincheira B., 2007. "Hidden Predictability in Economics: The Case of the Chilean Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 435, Central Bank of Chile.
  338. Dick, Christian, 2010. "Die Weltkonjunktur aus deutscher Sicht," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 8-9.
  339. Lu, Helen & Jacobsen, Ben, 2016. "Cross-asset return predictability: Carry trades, stocks and commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-87.
  340. Gueorgui I. Kolev, 2008. "Forecasting aggregate stock returns using the number of initial public offerings as a predictor," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(13), pages 1-8.
  341. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 669, Central Bank of Chile.
  342. Byrne, Joseph & Fu, Rong, 2016. "Stock Return Prediction with Fully Flexible Models and Coefficients," MPRA Paper 75366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  343. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
  344. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "Price discovery and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 224-235.
  345. Kaijian He & Rui Zha & Jun Wu & Kin Keung Lai, 2016. "Multivariate EMD-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, April.
  346. Alun H. Thomas, 2012. "Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub-Saharan Africa Floaters," IMF Working Papers 12/208, International Monetary Fund.
  347. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
  348. Ferson, Wayne & Nallareddy, Suresh & Xie, Biqin, 2013. "The “out-of-sample” performance of long run risk models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 537-556.
  349. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
  350. Buncic, Daniel & Tischhauser, Martin, 2015. "Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Premium Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1522, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  351. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
  352. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:1:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
  353. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  354. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Equity Premia using Bayesian Dynamic Model Averaging," CQE Working Papers 2914, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  355. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  356. Wayne E. Ferson & Suresh K. Nallareddy & Biqin Xie, 2012. "The "Out of Sample" Performance of Long-run Risk Models," NBER Working Papers 17848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  357. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  358. Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2012. "Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 135-155, August.
  359. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.