IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login

Citations for "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices"

by James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window

  1. Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009. "Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
  3. Aksoy, Yunus & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Interest rates and output in the long-run," Working Paper Series 0434, European Central Bank.
  4. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
  5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  6. Alain KABUNDI & Rangan GUPTA, . "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach," EcoMod2009 21500048, EcoMod.
  7. Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2012. "Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 135-155, August.
  8. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
  10. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
  11. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
  12. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  13. William T. Gavin & David M. Kemme, 2007. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Working Papers 2004-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Tejada, Mauricio, 2010. "Modelos de predicción para la inflación de Chile
    [Inflation forecast models for Chile]
    ," MPRA Paper 31586, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  15. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  16. Nagayasu, Jun, 2002. "On the term structure of interest rates and inflation in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 505-523.
  17. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  19. Zaher, Fadi, 2007. "Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 679-693.
  20. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "What Type Of Social Capital Is Engaged By The French Dairy Stockbreeders? A Characterization Through Their Professional Identities," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, JUNE.
  21. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Paper 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  22. Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
  23. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
  24. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2005. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England.
  25. Yong Ma & Yulu Chen, 2014. "Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator: Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 64-86, November.
  26. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola & Volker Ziemann, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1003, OECD Publishing.
  28. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  29. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?," Working Papers 236, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  30. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  31. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  32. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  33. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 869-889, 08.
  36. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  37. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers 09-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  38. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
  39. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  40. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
  41. Elena Andreou & Alessandra Pelloni & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth? Evidence from the G7," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 97, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  42. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  43. Francesco Furlanetto, 2011. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 91-111, September.
  44. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 04-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  45. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 200913, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  47. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  48. repec:dgr:uvatin:20110093 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  50. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  51. Jason Barr & Bruce Mizrach & Kusum Mundra, 2011. "Skyscraper Height and the Business Cycle: International Time Series Evidence," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2011-003, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
  52. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  53. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  54. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Could We Have Predicted The Recent Downturn In The South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 200831, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  55. Croushore, Dean & Marsten, Katherine, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  56. de Wet, Albertus H. & van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan, 2009. "Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1000-1011, September.
  57. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
  58. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2006_6, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2006.
  59. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 0751, European Central Bank.
  60. Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
  61. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
  62. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
  63. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  64. Chakraborty, Avik, 2009. "Learning, The Forward Premium Puzzle, And Market Efficiency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 31-57, May.
  65. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44.
  66. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  67. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2001. "Domestic money and US output and inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  68. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, 09.
  69. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2006. "Extracting inflation expectations from the term structure: the Fisher equation in a multivariate SDF framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 261-277.
  70. Gustavo Silva Araújo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2014. "Indicadores Antecedentes Extraídos de Preços de Ativos em Corte Transversal," Working Papers Series 361, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  71. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
  72. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/13, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  73. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Mark Gertler, 2003. "Whither monetary and financial stability? : the implications of evolving policy regimes : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 213-223.
  75. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
  76. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
  77. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Working Paper 0611, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  78. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
  79. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  80. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, 05.
  81. Aksoy, Yunus & Melina, Giovanni, 2012. "An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 64-68.
  82. Ray C. Fair, 2014. "The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2015.
  83. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, . "Interest rate Pass-Through in the Major European Economies - The Role of Expectations," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  84. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori & Wang Chen, 2014. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China," Discussion Papers 1428, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  85. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  86. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  87. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  88. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
  89. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 419-430, April.
  90. Turgut Kisinbay & Eric Parrado & Rodolfo Maino & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/122, International Monetary Fund.
  91. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
  92. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  93. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
  94. Don Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  95. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  96. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328, March.
  97. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  98. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
  99. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Working Papers 2014-473, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  100. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  101. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
  102. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
  103. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  104. Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
  105. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.
  106. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  107. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts," Discussion Papers 06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  108. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  109. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
  110. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements.
  111. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  112. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, EconWPA.
  113. Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009. "Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
  114. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
  115. Teresa C. Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," NBER Working Papers 19134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  116. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  117. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201009, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  118. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
  119. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2010. "Business cycle synchronization of the euro area with the new and negotiating member countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 288-306.
  120. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  121. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42.
  122. Jon Faust & Abhishek Gupta, 2012. "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 17906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  123. Harrison Hong & Motohiro Yogo, 2011. "What Does Futures Market Interest Tell Us about the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices?," NBER Working Papers 16712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  124. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
  125. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
  126. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," Data 0503001, EconWPA.
  127. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test," Working Papers 2014-466, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  128. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
  129. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2012. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments," Working Papers in Economics 12/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  130. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  131. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
  132. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  133. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 203-219.
  134. François Gourio, 2005. "Operating Leverage,Stock Market Cyclicality,and the Cross-Section of Returns," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  135. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  136. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  137. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
  138. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2013. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 2013/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  139. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
  140. Tomas Adam & Miroslav Plasil, 2014. "The Impact of Financial Variables on Czech Macroeconomic Developments: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2014/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  141. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Housing Prices: A Case Study of Twenty US States," Working papers 2009-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  142. Buchmann, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
  143. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  144. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 2006. "Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 147-173, April.
  145. Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
  146. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
  147. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 110, Econometric Society.
  148. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2014. "Forecasting US Real House Price Returns over 1831-2013: Evidence from Copula Models," Working Papers 2014-585, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  149. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.
  150. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
  151. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  152. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  153. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
  154. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
  155. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  156. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  157. Tsay, Ruey S. & Ando, Tomohiro, 2012. "Bayesian panel data analysis for exploring the impact of subprime financial crisis on the US stock market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3345-3365.
  158. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  159. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  160. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  161. Andreea Halunga & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0715, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  162. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  163. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  164. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
  165. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset prices, financial imbalances and monetary policy: are inflation targets enough?," BIS Working Papers 140, Bank for International Settlements.
  166. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "A cost-of-living dynamic price index, with an application to indexing retirement accounts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5394, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  167. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  168. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
  169. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," MPRA Paper 58360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  170. Kerry B. Hudson & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Understanding the Deviations of the Taylor Rule: A New Methodology with an Application to Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2014-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  171. Bordes, C. & Clerc, L., 2004. "Price Stability and The ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," Working papers 109, Banque de France.
  172. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  173. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  174. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  175. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  176. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  177. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & John Smithin, 2006. "Real wages, productivity and economic growth in the G7, 1960-2002," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 223-233.
  178. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
  179. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  180. Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection," NBER Working Papers 14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  181. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  182. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
  183. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  184. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
  185. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
  186. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," MPRA Paper 56737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  187. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  188. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper Series 65_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  189. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  190. Stephen P Millard & Simon J Wells, 2003. "The role of asset prices in transmitting monetary and other shocks," Bank of England working papers 188, Bank of England.
  191. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  192. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Working Papers 201383, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  193. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 13 BAWP, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  194. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 1209, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  195. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2005. "US domestic currency in forecast error variance decompositions of inflation and output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 265-271, February.
  196. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," Economics Series 2011_1, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  197. Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  198. Kitchen, John & Chinn, Menzie, 2010. "Financing U.S. debt: Is there enough money in the world – and at what cost?," MPRA Paper 24736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  199. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
  200. Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.
  201. Massimiliano Serati & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Building composite leading indexes in a dynamic factor model framework: a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 212, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
  202. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112.
  203. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel & Martin Lettau, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 117-133.
  204. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro, 2008. "Asset booms and fat tails in East Asia: Symmetric or asymmetric risks?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1617-1640, December.
  205. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2004. "A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting," European Economy - Economic Papers 219, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  206. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
  207. Modugno, Michele, 2011. "Nowcasting inflation using high frequency data," Working Paper Series 1324, European Central Bank.
  208. Benedetto Molinari, 2010. "Sticky Information and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from U.S. Data," Working Papers 10.09, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  209. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
  210. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2006. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  211. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  212. Ferrara, L. & Marsilli, C. & Ortega, J-P., 2013. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Working papers 454, Banque de France.
  213. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  214. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  215. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  216. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  217. Philippe Mueller & Mikhail Chernov, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," 2008 Meeting Papers 346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  218. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper 2007/09, Norges Bank.
  219. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
  220. Zeng, Zheng, 2013. "New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 125-139.
  221. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  222. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642.
  223. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
  224. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  225. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  226. Roberto Rigobon & Anna Pavlova, 2004. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 579, Econometric Society.
  227. Diron, Marie & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 0564, European Central Bank.
  228. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  229. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  230. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  231. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
  232. Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  233. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  234. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-301, April.
  235. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
  236. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," MPRA Paper 21122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  237. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  238. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2002. "The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  239. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2009. "Differences in housing price forecastability across US states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 351-372.
  240. Ramdane Djoudad & Jack Selody & Carolyn Wilkins, 2005. "Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?," Working Papers 05-33, Bank of Canada.
  241. Wei, Xiaoqiao & Yang, Yuhong, 2012. "Robust forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 224-236.
  242. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  243. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  244. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," AQR Working Papers 201312, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.
  245. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  246. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
  247. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  248. Erdemlioglu, Deniz, 2009. "Macro Factors in UK Excess Bond Returns: Principal Components and Factor-Model Approach," MPRA Paper 28895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  249. Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 0867, European Central Bank.
  250. Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  251. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, . "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  252. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
  253. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
  254. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, April.
  255. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2004. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Macroeconomics 0401007, EconWPA.
  256. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  257. Parusan Janhorm & Chaipat Poonpatpobul & Pinrat Pongsinsirikul, 2004. "Exploring Inflation in Thailand Through Sectoral Price Settting Behavior and Underlying Trend," Working Papers 2004-03, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  258. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "A Dynamic Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 11746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  259. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
  260. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  261. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  262. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
  263. Frank Browne & David Doran, 2005. "Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1801-1812.
  264. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
  265. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  266. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192 Bank for International Settlements.
  267. Scott Brave & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "In search of a robust inflation forecast," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-31.
  268. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  269. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  270. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  271. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012. "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 908-916.
  272. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  273. John, Tatom, 2009. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?," MPRA Paper 19762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  274. Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Forecasting the Price of Gold," Working Papers 2014-480, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  275. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-27, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  276. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Persistence and cycles in historical oil price data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 511-516.
  277. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  278. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  279. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  280. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  281. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.
  282. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  283. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
  284. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  285. Wang, Zijun, 2009. "Stock returns and the short-run predictability of health expenditure: Some empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 587-601, July.
  286. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts," Working Papers 0801, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  287. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  288. Elena Andreou & Marianne Sensier & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth?," Working Paper Series 37-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  289. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  290. Ando, Tomohiro & Tsay, Ruey, 2010. "Predictive likelihood for Bayesian model selection and averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-763, October.
  291. Cooke, Diana A. & Gavin, William T., 2014. "Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy," Working Papers 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  292. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
  293. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  294. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, . "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  295. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
  296. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  297. Marie Diron & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 33-45.
  298. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  299. Naresh Bansal & Jack Strauss & Alireza Nasseh, 2015. "Can we consistently forecast a firm’s earnings? Using combination forecast methods to predict the EPS of Dow firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, January.
  300. Alfred V Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2013. "The Centre Matters for the Periphery of Europe: The Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity in Europe," Working Papers in Economics 13/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  301. Ryan Banerjee & Nicoletta Batini, 2003. "UK Consumers’ Habits," Discussion Papers 13, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  302. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund.
  303. Yu-chin Chen & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Eric Zivot, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation using Commodity Price Aggregates," Working Papers UWEC-2011-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  304. David Bivin, 2005. "Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1215-1231.
  305. Igor Makarov & D. Papanikolaou, 2008. "Sources of systematic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  306. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2013. "Trend inflation in advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  307. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  308. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
  309. Javier Contreras-Reyes & Byron Idrovo, 2011. "En busca de un modelo Benchmark univariado para predecir la tasa de desempleo," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
  310. Kjetil Olsen & Jan Fredrik & Oistain Roisland, 2003. "Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 368-382 Bank for International Settlements.
  311. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
  312. John C Bluedorn & Jörg Decressin & Marco Terrones, 2013. "Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?," IMF Working Papers 13/203, International Monetary Fund.
  313. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  314. Tim Schwarzmüller, 2015. "Model Pooling and Changes in the Informational Content of Predictors: an Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  315. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
  316. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  317. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  318. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  319. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2009. "Using subspace algorithm cointegration analysis: Simulation performance and application to the term structure," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1954-1973, April.
  320. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Ferando Perez de Gracia, 2014. "Persistence, Mean Reversion and Non-Linearities in US Housing Prices Over 1830-2013," Working Papers 201450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  321. Jean-Marie Dufour & David Tessier, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices," Working Papers 06-39, Bank of Canada.
  322. Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Gold Prices and Inflation," Working Papers 07-35, Bank of Canada.
  323. Baghestani, Hamid, 2012. "Are professional forecasts of growth in US business investment rational?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 132-135.
  324. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA.
  325. Stéphane Sorbe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 16-24, 06.
  326. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
  327. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada.
  328. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  329. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2006. "The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping," European Economy - Economic Papers 249, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  330. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
  331. Azoulay, Eddy & Brenner, Menachem & Landskroner, Yoram & Stein, Roy, 2014. "Inflation risk premium implied by options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 90-102.
  332. Wagner, Helmut & Kißmer, Friedrich & Funke, Norbert, 2006. "International Lessons for the Property Price Boom in South Africa," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 27, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  333. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004.
  334. Clerc, L., 2007. "Understanding Asset Prices: Determinants and Policy Implications," Working papers 168, Banque de France.
  335. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.