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Skyscraper Height and the Business Cycle: International Time Series Evidence

  • Jason Barr

    ()

  • Bruce Mizrach

    ()

  • Kusum Mundra

    ()

This paper is the first to rigorously test how height and output co-move. Because builders can use their buildings for non-rational or non-pecuniary gains, it is widely believed that (a) the most severe forms of height competition occur near the business cycle peaks and (b) that extreme height are examples of developers "gone wild." We find virtually no support for either of these popularly held claims. First we look at both the announcement and completion dates for record breaking buildings and find there is very little correlation with the business cycle. Second, cointegration and Granger causality tests show that height and output are cointegrated and that height does not Granger cause output. These results are robust for the United States, Canada, China and Hong Kong.

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File URL: http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/workingpaper20113
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2011-003.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2011-003
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Web page: http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/economics

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  1. Kang, Heejoon, 1985. "The Effects of Detrending in Granger Causality Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 344-49, October.
  2. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  5. Jason Barr, 2010. "Skyscrapers and the Skyline: Manhattan, 1895-2004," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 567-597.
  6. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
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