Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states
The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to determine a priori the particular variable or small set of variables that are the most relevant for forecasting real housing price growth for a given state and time period, the authors also consider various methods for combining the individual ARDL model forecasts. They find that combination forecasts are quite helpful in generating accurate forecasts of real housing price growth in the individual Eighth District states.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
- Timmermann, Allan G, 2005.
CEPR Discussion Papers
5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Patric H. Hendershott & John C. Weicher, 2002. "Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2005. "Estimates of home mortgage originations, repayments, and debt on one-to-four-family residences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Geraint Johnes & Thomas Hyclak, . "House Prices and Regional Labor Markets," Working Papers ec15/93, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrd:y:2007:i:nov:p:33-42:n:v.3no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.