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Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data

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Cited by:

  1. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
  2. Klein, Mathias & Polattimur, Hamza & Winkler, Roland, 2022. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  3. Akitoby Bernardin & Honda Jiro & Miyamoto Hiroaki, 2022. "Countercyclical fiscal policy and gender employment: evidence from the G-7 countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
  4. Anzoategui, Diego, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and the effects of fiscal austerity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  5. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  6. Romanos Priftis & Srec̆ko Zimic, 2021. "Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 498-519.
  7. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  8. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
  10. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
  11. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt [When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
  12. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2019. "Projection estimators for structural impulse responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  13. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Håkon Tretvoll, 2023. "Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
  15. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
  16. Roland Kangni KPODAR & Maëlan LE GOFF & Raju Jan SINGH, 2018. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries," Working Papers P238, FERDI.
  17. Bracco,Jessica Roxana & Galeano,Luciana Maria & Juarros,Pedro Francisco & Riera-Crichton,Daniel & Vuletin,Guillermo Javier, 2021. "Social Transfer Multipliers in Developed and Emerging Countries : The Role of Hand-to-Mouth Consumers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9627, The World Bank.
  18. Pietro Alessandrini & Òscar Jordà & Fabrizio Venditti, 2023. "Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  20. Nadav Ben Zeev & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2023. "Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 382-387, May.
  21. Bauer, Michael D. & Pflueger, Carolin E. & Sunderam, Adi, 2022. "Perceptions about monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 176, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  22. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim & Park, Donghyun, 2018. "Fiscal space and government-spending & tax-rate cyclicality patterns: A cross-country comparison, 1960-2016," Working Paper Series 20837, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor & Mahdi Ebsim & Jingchao Li & Peter B. McCrory, 2020. "A Local-Spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks," Working Papers 2020-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Papers 2018/220, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Istrefi, Klodiana & Hack, Lukas & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Masahiro Tanaka, 2020. "Bayesian Inference of Local Projections with Roughness Penalty Priors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 629-651, February.
  27. Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2022. "Public investment crowds in private investment - with ifs and buts," Working Papers 2022/04, Latvijas Banka.
  28. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
  29. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
  30. Scott R. Baker & Lorenz Kueng & Leslie McGranahan & Brian T. Melzer, 2019. "Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32.
  31. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Hawkish or dovish central bankers: do different flocks matter for fiscal shocks?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 114.
  32. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
  33. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Lee, Byoungchan, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8878h9r2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  34. Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro, 2013. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes," Working Papers 13-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  35. David, Antonio C. & Guajardo, Jaime & Yepez, Juan F., 2022. "The rewards of fiscal consolidations: Sovereign spreads and confidence effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  36. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
  37. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign [Downward Wage Rigidity and Business Cycle Asymmetries]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
  38. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2023. "Analyzing Linear DSGE models: the Method of Undetermined Markov States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  39. Piotr Krajewski & Agata Szymanska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle-Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215.
  40. Alex Clymo & Andrea Lanteri & Alessandro Villa, 2023. "Capital and Labor Taxes with Costly State Contingency," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 943-964, December.
  41. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.
  42. Senekovič Marko & Kavkler Alenka & Bekő Jani, 2019. "Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 16-29, March.
  43. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
  44. Fritsche, Jan Philipp & Klein, Mathias & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  45. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
  46. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  47. Andresa Lagerborg & Evi Pappa & Morten O Ravn, 2023. "Sentimental Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1358-1393.
  48. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2020. "Le multiplicateur d'investissement public," Working Papers hal-03370444, HAL.
  49. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
  50. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  51. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Hysteresis and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-53.
  52. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Fiscal stimulus and systematic monetary policy: Postwar evidence for the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-96.
  53. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  54. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gomez-Rodriguez & Christian Matthes, 2023. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-008 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  55. Fabio Bertolotti & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Tax shocks with high and low uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 972-993, September.
  56. Michael B Devereux & Karine Gente & Changhua Yu, 2023. "Production Networks And International Fiscal Spillovers," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(653), pages 1871-1900.
  57. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  58. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  59. Olatunji A. Shobande & Oladimeji T. Shodipe & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Global Shocks Alert and Monetary Policy Responses," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/066, African Governance and Development Institute..
  60. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2023-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  61. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2020. "The time-varying effect of fiscal policy on inflation: Evidence from historical US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  62. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Joao Jalles, 2020. "Job protection deregulation in good and bad times," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 370-390.
  63. Edward P. Herbst & Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2020. "Bias in Local Projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-010r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Jan 2021.
  64. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
  65. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  66. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  67. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "State-Dependent Effects of Tax Changes in Germany and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202125, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  68. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  69. Chacko George & Florian Kuhn, 2019. "Business Cycle Implications of Capacity Constraints under Demand Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 94-121, April.
  70. Andrew Hodge & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé & Vina Nguyen, 2022. "U.S. and Euro Area Monetary and Fiscal Interactions During the Pandemic: A Structural Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/222, International Monetary Fund.
  71. Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2018. "The state-dependent effects of tax shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 57-85.
  72. Geiger, Martin & Zachariadis, Marios, 2022. "Consumers’ Updating, Policy Shocks, And Public Debt: An Empirical Assessment Of State Dependencies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(8), pages 2104-2140, December.
  73. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Rubio-Guerrero, Juan J., 2022. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: Further evidence for Spain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 305-313.
  74. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," CESifo Working Paper Series 8977, CESifo.
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  76. Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2020. "Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 429-463, December.
  77. Ouliaris, Sam & Rochon, Celine, 2021. "Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis Policy Multipliers#," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  78. Dime, Roselle & Ginting, Edimon & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2021. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in Selected Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 638, Asian Development Bank.
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  80. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2255-2298.
  81. Md Ali Emam & Markus Leibrecht & Tinggui Chen, 2022. "The Impact of a “National Green Export Review” on Competitiveness: Empirical Evidence for Ecuador’s Fish Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
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  83. Daniel Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2019. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  84. Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2021. "The impact of r-g on Euro-Area government spending multipliers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  85. Michael J. Boskin, 2020. "Are Large Deficits and Debt Dangerous?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 145-148, May.
  86. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
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  124. Sokbae Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures: Government Spending Multipliers In Hard Times," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1949-1957, October.
  125. Immaculate Machasio & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "Remittance Infl ows and State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Developing Countries," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201638, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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