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The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Pragyan Deb
  • Davide Furceri
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Nour Tawk

Abstract

Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measures have been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented by countries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the “pandemic curve”, but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, in countries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find that easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/159, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/159
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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