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Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries

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  • World Bank

Abstract

This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is significantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1–0.4. In addition, the findings show that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating that fiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank, 2025. "Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11193, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11193
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