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Covid-19 infections and the performance of the stock market: An empirical analysis for Australia

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  • Markus Brueckner
  • Joaquin Vespignani

Abstract

Using daily data, we estimate a vector autoregression model to characterize the dynamic relationship between Covid-19 infections in Australia and the performance of the Australian stock market, specifically, the ASX-200. Impulse response functions show that Covid-19 infections in Australia have a significant positive effect on the performance of the stock market: a one standard deviation increase in new registered cases of Covid-19 infections in Australia increases the daily growth rate of the ASX-200 by around half a percentage point. This result is robust to alternative lag selections of the VAR model as suggested by alternative information criteria; including in the model control variables for stock market volatility, i.e. the ASX-200 VIX; the USD-AUD exchange rate and the international oil price; news by the World Health Organization regarding a Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergency; and the government-imposed shutdown of parts of the Australian economy. We also present estimates of the dynamic relationship between the daily growth rate of the Dow Jones and daily new cases of Covid-19 infections in the US. The US data show, similar to the Australian data, that there is a significant positive effect of Covid-19 infections on the performance of the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Covid-19 infections and the performance of the stock market: An empirical analysis for Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2020-56, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-56
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-06/56_2020_brueckner_vespignani.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2020-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Stock market

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

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