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Covid-19 infections and the performance of the stock market: an empirical analysis for Australia

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Abstract

Using daily data, we estimate a vector autoregression model to characterize the dynamic relationship between Covid-19 infections in Australia and the performance of the Australian stock market, specifically, the ASX-200. Impulse response functions show that Covid-19 infections in Australia have a significant positive effect on the performance of the stock market: a one standard deviation increase in new registered cases of Covid-19 infections in Australia increases the daily growth rate of the ASX-200 by around half a percentage point. This result is robust to alternative lag selections of the VAR model as suggested by alternative information criteria; including in the model the USD-AUD exchange rate and the international oil price; including in the model news by the World Health Organization regarding a Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergency; and including in the model the government-imposed shutdown of parts of the Australian economy. We also present estimates of the dynamic relationship between the daily growth rate of the Dow Jones and daily new cases of Covid-19 infections in the US. The US data show, similar to the Australian data, that there is a significant positive effect of Covid-19 infections on the performance of the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Brueckner, Markus & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2020. "Covid-19 infections and the performance of the stock market: an empirical analysis for Australia," Working Papers 2020-06, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:33228
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    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
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    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2020-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

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